Courtesy of The Australian, the first Newspoll in what has been a dramatic three weeks finds the Coalition restoring its two-party lead, now at 51-49 after being the other way around last time. On the primary vote, the Coalition is up two to 42%, Labor down two to 34%, the Greens up one to 13% and One Nation up one to 5%.
These changes are modest compared to the leaders’ ratings, which, as Kevin Bonham notes in comments, produce the strongest improvements in Newspoll history for a prime minister on both personal ratings and preferred prime minister. Morrison’s approval rating is up 20 to 61%, with disapproval down 18 to 35%, and his preferred prime minister lead has blown out from 42-38 to 53-29. However, Anthony Albanese’s ratings have also improved, up five on approval to 45% and down four on disapproval to 36%. Eight-six per cent of respondents expressed approval for the JobKeeper scheme with 10% disapproving, with 64% rated the $130 billion expenditure the right amount, compared with 14% for not enough and 16% for too much.
The poll also repeated a suite of questions on coronavirus and the government’s response that featured in the last Newspoll three weeks ago. The headline findings are that 84% profess themselves worried (up eight) and 14% confident (down six) about the impact of the virus on the Australian economy; 41% are confident (down six) and 57% worried (up six) about the preparedness of the public health system; 67% are confident (up four) and 32% worried (down three) about information available on how to protect one’s self; 47% are confident (down fourteen) and 33% worried (down fourteen) about the performance of federal and state governments in managing the economic impact; 59% are confident (up eight) and 28% worried (down five) about governments’ preparation of the public health system to cope; and 75% are confident (up ten) and 20% worried (down eight) about governments’ performance in informing Australians how to protect themselves.
Sixty-seven per cent professed themselves worried about catching the virus, 38% about higher government debt, 36% about job loss, 35% about falling superannuation balance, 15% about house prices falling and 7% about none of the above. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Friday, a subtle shift from its usual field work period of Wednesday to Saturday, from a sample of 1508.
PhoenixRED @4:15
Yes and its interesting that Singapore was held up as an example of how to manage the virus without going into lockdown. But, now they are headed down that path.
The problem fundamentally is that none of these countries has a true grasp of the number of infections that are undiagnosed. They aren’t testing enough. Nor are we. We can spin all we like about our “high” rates of testing, but the only way to truly know what’s happening is to to do mass samples of the general community.
This reminds me of this ABC article from a week or so ago:
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-27/coronavirus-options-to-end-lockdown-explained/12090270
I was surprised it wasn’t more commented on at the time.
I was … somewhat taken aback by the strategy:
I guess it’s a better strategy than no strategy at all, but I think this part of the ‘strategy’ has flown largely under the radar, and yeah, the numbers don’t really add up because you’d need much much higher infection rates to get to the 60% or whatever.
I had been wondering if the whole not-showing-the-modeling thing was down to the fact that the modeling may draw attention to this facet of the strategy and the government doesn’t particularly want to have that debate.
Perhaps the early advice was that it wouldn’t be possible to contain the spread to the degree we appear to be doing so it appeared to be just about tempering the degree to which the health system would be inevitably overwhelmed.
Re the discussion about a choice between eradication and herd immunity.
Isn’t there a third choice? Accept that the disease is going to be with us for perhaps 1-2 years while we await a vaccine. And we basically aim to maintain a flattened curve of hospital admissions through a range of strategies implemented simultaneously:
1) limiting access to Australia to returning citizens/essential visitors
2) compelling anyone who is allowed to enter the country to spend 14 days in controlled isolation in a hotel or wherever
3) expanding our ICU/ventilator capacity as much as we can
4) tracking and testing anyone associated with a cluster of community transmissions and
5) continuing to impose the appropriate level of social distancing: ideally relaxing constraints over time to enable a gradual return to normal levels of economic and social activity, while retaining the ability to ramp them up again if case numbers start to rise
All things considered, this seems the best way forward to me. I think the building up herd immunity approach is dangerously crazy (although a few countries – eg France, Spain, Italy and the US – might end up there by default).
The eradication approach is certainly worth pursuing, but I would see us doing this through the model I’ve set out above: it would be a “stretch goal” of a strategy primarily aimed at maintaining a flattened curve.
https://theconversation.com/sorry-to-disappoint-climate-deniers-but-coronavirus-makes-the-low-carbon-transition-more-urgent-135419
Rex Douglas says:
Monday, April 6, 2020 at 4:22 pm
It actually saddens me immensely to see this diminished ALP just almost resigned to Opposition for god knows how long.
Watching Burke.. and Albo …and the others just going through the motions…
Ughhh…
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The criticism i will continue to make of those in the Labor Party under Albanese is they are not getting it that appeasing the media , will not help Labor .
The public will not punish those who show nastiness or Bellowing at the public when putting their messages out
Those in the Labor party wake up and start to out BELLOW morrison and his cronies
‘Oakeshott Country says:
Monday, April 6, 2020 at 4:05 pm
Bw
The initial modelling published in MJA was that NSW ICU beds would be full of COVID by Good Friday.
A fortune was spent ramping up services to meet that crisis.
The current planning is that we have been given a stay of execution rather than a commutation. This seems very safe. Ramping up is continuing but there is some muffled optimism that continuing social isolation measures may spare us from an Italian style crisis’
OC and others, thanks for responses.
CC
If you have not already check out Japan and their upward inflection in recent days. Quite a !!!.(half way down page)
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12319125
“Well, this is a stunning Newspoll.
Labor clearly isn’t seen as a modern day party of Govt.
Their current closed shop structure of union hacks is no longer viable.”
More bulldust from a Liberal stooge.
As we know from the last election, the polls are pretty much meaningless, even moreso this far out.
The social and political landscape will change after this virus.
Progressive parties have a real chance to put the boot into neo-liberalism.
A good name for my proposed approach would be the “Sartre strategy”: ie, “No Exit” (until a vaccine is developed).
Get Kim carr, Bill Shorten and others in the Labor party who are capable of competing in a Bellowing competition with the best of the liberal/national party bellowers .
Labor might just find out that may get them support in the public
“So much anger toward a 90something year old lady who dedicated her life to the peoples want – and who probably would love for the people to retire the monarchy.
It is, after all, the people who desire to continue the monarchy.”
The words of a true blue dyed in the wool Tory if ever I’ve seen them.
“What’s the truth re the severity of Boris Johnsons illness ?”
Dunno. Ask some of your Monarchist friends.
meher baba
“Isn’t there a third choice? Accept that the disease is going to be with us for perhaps 1-2 years while we await a vaccine. And we basically aim to maintain a flattened curve of hospital admissions through a range of strategies implemented simultaneously: ”
Doesn’t this require the economy go into hibernation for 1-2 years? Epidemiologically, this ‘third choice’ is sound. Economically, it equates to a Depression.
Scott @ #546 Monday, April 6th, 2020 – 4:29 pm
It’s really going to be up to the rank and file to change the current state and structure of this talentless bunch of hacks.
The rank and file need to open the curtains – so to speak – and let the outside world into the fold. Then you might get some talent on the front bench.
Rex Douglas doing his, ‘more in sorrow than in anger’ schtick re the Tony Bourke interview with Pats Karvelas. Wasn’t the one I just watched where Tony Bourke politely but firmly answered her questions and pinged Christian Porter’s ridiculous game playing this morning, as expected of an Opposition putting the government under the sort of scrutiny required.
But then, ‘polite but firm’ isn’t in Rex Douglas’ lexicon, so I’m not surprised he couldn’t recognise it.
Come this wednesday during house of reps sitting , no doubt Morrison and his cronies will waste no time in Bellowing like wounded bulls , and guess what the public will enjoy it and will continue to be gullible to pro coalition media , Morrison and his cronies
The first letter here is a cracker:
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/pandemic-has-exposed-the-fatuity-of-neo-liberalism-20200405-p54h6k.html
I’ve dropped two youTube links that are worth watching at the end of this post that explain things rather well.
I suspect that until now we’ve largely been dealing with known factors where someone who has contracted the disease has come in contact with a carrier who has brought it from overseas somehow. What we don’t know now but certainly will begin to appreciate over the next 2 to 5 weeks is how far it got before the lockdowns happened. How much community transmission has occurred where there is no trace back to a point of entry. As of 3 days ago there were 17 Nursing homes that had reported cases, I think the government(s) are waiting for the inevitable uptick. If it somehow managed to get into 17 homes then what stopped it getting into a lot more (hopefully locking them down so quickly did stop it but we need to plan for the worst and hope for the best).
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-02/coronavirus-cases-which-nursing-homes-with-covid-19/12111294
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=okg7uq_HrhQ
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uaIzj3s3p4A
Anyway, things are looking really good today: unless South Australia ruins the party in the next hour or two or my own state later tonight (Tassie likes to brief the local media about its data in the late evening and then officially announce it the next morning, which confuses the heck out of the various aggregators).
The current strategy is definitely flattening the curve for now. But, as we’ve seen in other countries such as South Korea and Singapore, there is a continuing risk of subterranean clusters of community transmission that break out suddenly. There is also the risk of Easter, when I’m afraid a lot of our fellow Australians are certain to behave like silly buggers.
I would suggest that the Federal and state governments should book out another couple of thousand hotel rooms and announce that these are reserved for giving 2 weeks compulsory quarantine to the winners of the inaugural Easter Idiots Award. The winners would be those caught engaging in the most egregious flouting of social distancing rules, as judged by the police forces of the eight states or territories.
Bit of a train wreck interview with charities minister on ABC, no these changes do not apply to universities yes we might have said that but no it does not
kakuru: “Doesn’t this require the economy go into hibernation for 1-2 years? Epidemiologically, this ‘third choice’ is sound. Economically, it equates to a Depression.”
No, because as I said, it includes the goal of returning to normality as quickly as we can, as long as the curve remains relatively flat. In that sense, it is better than either of the other options, because, if things continue to improve, we could start to consider loosening some restrictions in a fortnight or so, with the proviso that we ramp them back up if things start to get worse again.
With either the herd immunity or the eradication option, you will be waiting months and months. And how can you ever be certain that you’ve achieved eradication?
meher baba
I think that can be guaranteed. There are already signs of rebellion in holiday spots.
SA:
Just two new cases of COVID-19 have been recorded in South Australia for a total of 411 as drastic efforts continue to “flatten the curve”.
One patient is aged in their 20s while the other is in their 60s.
Twenty people are in hospital and there are now 10 in the Royal Adelaide Hospital intensive care unit, one up from yesterday. Seven are critical and three are stable; eight are men and two are women aged from 44 to 77.
No extra cases have been recorded from the Ruby Princess cruise ship or airport baggage handlers clusters. Cruise ship cases account for 120 cases and the airport cluster stands at 28 with more expected.
Rex Douglassays:
Monday, April 6, 2020 at 4:36 pm
“It’s really going to be up to the rank and file to change the current state and structure of this talentless bunch of hacks.
The rank and file need to open the curtains – so to speak – and let the outside world into the fold. Then you might get some talent on the front bench.”
The Rank and File in the ALP have virtually no power. The Unions have all the power. It is the Unions’ organisation – they pay for it, they preselect the candidates they want.
meher baba @ #571 Monday, April 6th, 2020 – 4:48 pm
This makes no sense. If the curve is flattening – and it is still too early to tell definitively yet – it is only doing so because of the restrictions we have imposed. If we lessen those restrictions without an effective treatment or vaccine, the curve will not stay flat for very long.
There will be no “returning to normality” in the short term. Yes, in the medium term we may be willing to try reducing some restrictions. But each time we do so, we will have to wait weeks to see if we have unleashed the virus again, in which case we will have to close down even harder to recover the lost ground.
This is a very risky approach – we could easily end up going backwards instead of forwards.
lizzie @ #572 Monday, April 6th, 2020 – 4:48 pm
Shut ’em down. Other states have done so. Why not NSW?
https://www.pollbludger.net/2020/04/05/newspoll-51-49-to-coalition-10/comment-page-11/#comment-3379866
The Canadian Senate suffers from being appointed, and particularly from being appointed by the same executive whose bills and actions it reviews. That part was a poor copy and paste job from the colonial constitutions in Canada at the time (all the original provinces later abolished their appointed legislative councils and all provinces are now unicameral). Either a provincially appointed or elected Senate would have done better.
South Africa`s National Council of Provinces is somewhat more Bundesrat is architecture than Australia or the USA`s Senate.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/06/new-coronavirus-cases-in-australia-could-number-almost-zero-by-july-modelling-suggests
‘poroti says:
Monday, April 6, 2020 at 3:40 pm
Boerwar
By the time the poor chap got to Castricum he would have been exhausted from trying to find an actual hill to march up or down . ‘
haha. I assume that they would have flooded the polders along his line of march and turned it into a sodden mud bath.
How awesome would this have been, circa early to mid 1942 …
https://youtu.be/2-8ppT7TYrg
All governments will be looking at a number of options for the future depending on how the virus progresses. There will likely be changes as circumstances develop and change. No point ruling anything in or out at this time.
Fess MyGov tells us we receive our $750 on Wednesday.
P1
“This makes no sense. If the curve is flattening – and it is still too early to tell definitively yet – it is only doing so because of the restrictions we have imposed. If we lessen those restrictions without an effective treatment or vaccine, the curve will not stay flat for very long. ”
Agreed. I don’t understand meherbaba’s strategy. The curve is only flattening because of the restrictions – the same restrictions that are stifling the economy. If the restrictions are relaxed, then we get an increase in transmissions and infections – unless the virus is completely eradicated.
We can only hope they are bankrupted and found criminally liable.
https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/washington-state-nonprofit-files-lawsuit-seeking-to-stop-fox-news-from-broadcasting-false-information-about-the-coronavirus/
Rex
Thanks for the link to this article by Hewson, which is good. It really is blindingly obvious, unless you are hiding in a coal mine, that action on climate change is the obvious thing Australia (and most nations) should do to exit any Covid linked recession. The alternatives have not been generating any economic growth anyway.
A new power grid, more wind farms, more solar PV panels on buildings (made in Australia), big batteries, E-car charging stations and building an electrified transport fleet (we can build the trains here) would generate jobs, reduce power and travel costs, and reduce our balance of payments bill.
https://theconversation.com/sorry-to-disappoint-climate-deniers-but-coronavirus-makes-the-low-carbon-transition-more-urgent-135419
I don’t know how customs/ABF do it, but inbound arrivals of people and goods needs to be much much more heavily scrutinised in future before allowed into the community.
phoenixRED @ #545 Monday, April 6th, 2020 – 4:15 pm
Yes, poster child Singapore is going into “circuit breaker” tomorrow and closing schools as well.
A-E
Thanks. It is one of a great series, IMO.
😆
Scott says:
Monday, April 6, 2020 at 4:34 pm
Get Kim carr, Bill Shorten and others in the Labor party who are capable of competing in a Bellowing competition with the best of the liberal/national party bellowers .
Labor might just find out that may get them support in the public
______________________
More Kim Carr and Bill Shorten. Sounds good to me!
If the goal is to increase human activity, then that will require finding new activities and adopting new behaviours, processes, etc.
Looking to “return to normal” is not looking ahead, it’s looking behind. Looking ahead would be asking what we can do in the new normal of social distancing.
A lot of human activity these days is decided by what we’ve chosen to value. Jobs are created when we value each other’s work. Perhaps its time to rethink what we want from each other.
TTFAB
It was the Union of South Africa rather than the Apartheid or current republics. Despite being a federation the senate was chosen by the provincial parliaments and the GG also appointed the right sort of chap. It was powerless because any disagreement with the House of Representatives lead directly to a joint sitting and the size of the Senate was a third of the House.
Remarkably there were reserved seats for “Cape Coloureds” until the late 50s
Perhaps you will again accuse me of nitpicking, but my understanding of the PM’s order of 15 March banning foreign cruise ships for 30 days is that it did not apply to four cruise ships which were deemed to be “already in transit to Australia” and that the Ruby Princess was one of these.
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Thank you MB for that response.
The cruise ship ban was another example of the Morrison government making it up as they went along.
The significant point about the last voyage of the Ruby Princess was that it was even allowed to leave Sydney on March 8. The government must have been working on a cruise ship strategy in the several weeks after they watched the Diamond Princess drama unfold.
They must have had a cruise ban decision in their minds just a few days before they invoked it. If you were about to impose a ban, would you let a cruise ship leave Australia, filled with Australians for an 11-day cruise. Especially after it arrived from its last cruise with dozens of sick people.
What was it about the Ruby Princess that gave it immunity for government action at a time when the pandemic crisis was about to explode?
It is true that the government excluded the ban for ships that were in transit back to Australia. My reckoning is that the Ruby Princess was in the middle of its circumnavigation of New Zealand when the ban was announced and continued for several days afterward. It visited a number of ports on the east coast of both islands with thousands of passengers going on shore expeditions with unsuspecting locals.
You would think that on hearing of the ban, the cruise company would have ordered the ship to return to Sydney immediately. Someone can correct me if I’ve got this chronology wrong.
” I’m surprised that, in the light of the happenings with the Diamond Princess, Ministers and other important people at the Federal level weren’t all over what was going on with the cruise ships that were arriving that week. But I think that the determination by the “panel” within NSW Health that the vessel was low risk because it had only gone to NZ (and, as I understand it, hadn’t even docked there) must have given the Feds a high level of reassurance. ”
No, I’m sorry but the buck stops with the feds when it comes to protecting our borders.
“Alas, constitutional powers always matter in these situations: if the Federal Government attempted to act in areas in which it didn’t have the requisite powers, it would be subsequently destroyed in the courts.”
I think it unlikely that the states would challenge the Commonwealth invoking force majeure to save lives and protect the population from a raging pandemic. They, I suggest, would be subsequently destroyed by the voters. If it went to the High Court, the feds would not be too fussed to lose under those circumstances, after the event.
The way I see to lessen the restrictions is as follows.
Once cases are down to half a manageable level as defined before hand by medical experts.
1)Loosen the restrictions slightly
2)Watch the cases to make sure they don’t start rising and immediately put the restrictions on again.
3)After 2 weeks go back to step 1.
The reason I say half is it will allow for a doubling due to the relaxed restrictions.
I see socialism has increased Morrison’s approval ratings.
I wonder how long he will declare SnapBack when that’s happening
Edit: 🙂
“ The criticism i will continue to make of those in the Labor Party under Albanese is they are not getting it that appeasing the media , will not help Labor .
The public will not punish those who show nastiness or Bellowing at the public when putting their messages out
Those in the Labor party wake up and start to out BELLOW morrison and his cronies‘
I’m sorry, but it’s important that the parliamentary Labor Party show a deft touch in their criticisms right now.
That doesn’t mean rolling over and expecting a tummy rub by the media. I think that the federal PLP has gotten this mainly right. Just like it has with the bushfires and until COVID19 matters took over, Angus, sports and regional grants rorts.
However, the Labor movement isn’t just comprised of the federal leader, his office, the front bench or even caucus. Us unionists, members and activists have some agency in all of this.
I’d like to see the party machinery orchestrate a social and other media campaign involving activists, commentators, think tanks, satirical comedians etc to keep hitting ScoMo and his merry band of pirates as hard as possible on their continued fuck ups and general mean-spiritedness, whilst Albo and the team do their thing during the pandemic.
This tandem strategy would reap dividends in 2022 in my view. Albo and the team keeping Labor credible and relevant and generally perceived as ‘positive’. ‘Us’ building the wall of sound for the inevitable pivot once the shit hits the fan for ScoMo after the pandemic passes.
As you know Nath; “Chaos is a ladder”
https://youtu.be/Naggi7ufrLc
I must confess to a bit of misplaced schadenfreude.
Nobody deserves what the Americans are experiencing right now.
I hope they manage to get on top of it soon.
Oakeshott country says:
Monday, April 6, 2020 at 5:17 pm
As you know Nath; “Chaos is a ladder”
_____________
Littlefinger knows the climb is all there is. But he wants us to think of him as another character:
Breakfast Presenter Jodie Oddy asked “Bill we had the Prime Minister on the other day and he’s a fan of Game of Thrones, if you could be a character who would you be and who would the Prime Minister be?” MP Bill Shorten responded “I’d be Jon Snow…he’s true to himself”
Of course, that’s exactly what Littlefinger would like you to believe.
Andrew Earlwood
Labor has to be deft with socialist Morrison.
Where they start the bellowing, as you put it, is when the so called SnapBack is tried.
The virus has shifted the Overton Window dramatically to the left.
It will continue past the election. The effects in the US and China are going to last well beyond the election and no matter Morrison’s ideology settings here will continue to impact big time.
I have no complaints about how the ACTU and Labor have handled the crisis so far.