Newspoll: 51-49 to Coalition

The first Newspoll in three weeks records a coronavirus-related surge in personal support for Scott Morrison, familiar from international experience.

Courtesy of The Australian, the first Newspoll in what has been a dramatic three weeks finds the Coalition restoring its two-party lead, now at 51-49 after being the other way around last time. On the primary vote, the Coalition is up two to 42%, Labor down two to 34%, the Greens up one to 13% and One Nation up one to 5%.

These changes are modest compared to the leaders’ ratings, which, as Kevin Bonham notes in comments, produce the strongest improvements in Newspoll history for a prime minister on both personal ratings and preferred prime minister. Morrison’s approval rating is up 20 to 61%, with disapproval down 18 to 35%, and his preferred prime minister lead has blown out from 42-38 to 53-29. However, Anthony Albanese’s ratings have also improved, up five on approval to 45% and down four on disapproval to 36%. Eight-six per cent of respondents expressed approval for the JobKeeper scheme with 10% disapproving, with 64% rated the $130 billion expenditure the right amount, compared with 14% for not enough and 16% for too much.

The poll also repeated a suite of questions on coronavirus and the government’s response that featured in the last Newspoll three weeks ago. The headline findings are that 84% profess themselves worried (up eight) and 14% confident (down six) about the impact of the virus on the Australian economy; 41% are confident (down six) and 57% worried (up six) about the preparedness of the public health system; 67% are confident (up four) and 32% worried (down three) about information available on how to protect one’s self; 47% are confident (down fourteen) and 33% worried (down fourteen) about the performance of federal and state governments in managing the economic impact; 59% are confident (up eight) and 28% worried (down five) about governments’ preparation of the public health system to cope; and 75% are confident (up ten) and 20% worried (down eight) about governments’ performance in informing Australians how to protect themselves.

Sixty-seven per cent professed themselves worried about catching the virus, 38% about higher government debt, 36% about job loss, 35% about falling superannuation balance, 15% about house prices falling and 7% about none of the above. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Friday, a subtle shift from its usual field work period of Wednesday to Saturday, from a sample of 1508.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

812 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Coalition”

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  1. Bucephalus @ #575 Monday, April 6th, 2020 – 4:52 pm

    Rex Douglassays:
    Monday, April 6, 2020 at 4:36 pm

    “It’s really going to be up to the rank and file to change the current state and structure of this talentless bunch of hacks.
    The rank and file need to open the curtains – so to speak – and let the outside world into the fold. Then you might get some talent on the front bench.”

    The Rank and File in the ALP have virtually no power. The Unions have all the power. It is the Unions’ organisation – they pay for it, they preselect the candidates they want.

    Says some guy from WA who is a Liberal Party member with zero to no knowledge in reality of the ALP.

    Buce,
    So explain to me how I, a Pharmacist, who retired to become a Carer of my Disabled child, who was not a member of a union and who joined the ALP to keep my mind occupied, was chosen as a Senate Intern for the FPLP and who gave up the opportunity to be chosen due to the onerous double responsibilities of caring for my husband, who had been diagnosed with Multiple Myeloma, and my disabled, as well as able-bodied second child?

    Am I just an anomaly? No, I’m not.

    Now, you can continue to find common cause with the miscreant that is Rex Douglas, who will always find some way, somehow to bag Labor, or you can admit you were wrong. Or you won’t admit you were wrong to say what you did, in which case we can apply the same sort of discount to what you say that we apply to what Rex Douglas says.

    Suffice to say, I can’t really see what’s wrong with someone who has fought for the working men and women of Australia, aka the Unions, being chosen to represent the political party of the working men and women of Australia?

    I mean, it’s not as if the Liberals don’t choose their candidates from the ranks of the Mining Bosses Union, aka the Mining Council, or the IPA, another union representing the interests of the bosses.

  2. “Isn’t there a third choice? Accept that the disease is going to be with us for perhaps 1-2 years while we await a vaccine. And we basically aim to maintain a flattened curve of hospital admissions through a range of strategies implemented simultaneously”

    Does such a third choice physically exist?

    Probably no. You can assuredly reduce hospital admissions to an “acceptable” level by remaining in lock down. But can you be assured of not going back to exponential spread once we remove lock down? Very unlikely. And if we can, then its because we are doing massive levels of testing and tracing. Far, far more testing that we have done so far.

    On the other hand, if we are willing to consider massive levels of testing and tracing, then this on top of the current measures almost certainly will achieve eradication. And quite quickly. And thus we can go out of lock down sooner.

    Even someone who only cares about “the economy” and not human lives and suffering, will see the logic in doing that.

  3. The only surprise in Porter saying that a Govt, which spends an inordinate amount of time avoiding accountability, has more important (unaccountable) things to do than be accountable is that he actually said it. It’s not that much short of saying frankly my dear (Fran), we don’t give a shit (about democracy).

  4. To give you an idea of how things have changed.

    Geoff Toobin on CNN’s The DailyDC podcast said that it’s questionable if the insurance companies in the US are going to survive.

    The effects of this crisis are going to last a lifetime.

  5. Jackol @4:28

    I had been wondering if the whole not-showing-the-modeling thing was down to the fact that the modeling may draw attention to this facet of the strategy and the government doesn’t particularly want to have that debate.

    I think the not showing the modelling thing is being done so as to not draw attention to the fact that the Federal government and some of its advisers are in fact clueless. They’re on a wing and a prayer. They don’t want to admit that they don’t have an exit strategy.

    Fortunately I think there are more level heads within the State bureaucracies willing to look at eradication as an exit strategy.

    Btw, if you haven’t already listened, check out last Saturday’s AM program, where there a guy from the Grattan institute who talks about eradication and makes a lot of sense.

  6. I liked that the Queen referred to people of religion, or none, followed by a reference to prayer, or meditation.

  7. Jon Snow was a Hamlet, too insecure and conflicted to bear the mantle of Tagaryen greatness.
    Little finger might pretend he no longer has ambitions for the throne but his true desires are obvious
    Albo’s character is Mace Tyrell

  8. Catmomma,

    I have no idea what a Senate Intern is but the fact remains that the unions control preselections with most going to Union employees and very few go to Rank & File members and almost all preselection positions are controlled by the Unions.

  9. Andrew_Earlwood @ #595 Monday, April 6th, 2020 – 5:16 pm

    “ The criticism i will continue to make of those in the Labor Party under Albanese is they are not getting it that appeasing the media , will not help Labor .

    The public will not punish those who show nastiness or Bellowing at the public when putting their messages out

    Those in the Labor party wake up and start to out BELLOW morrison and his cronies‘

    I’m sorry, but it’s important that the parliamentary Labor Party show a deft touch in their criticisms right now.

    That doesn’t mean rolling over and expecting a tummy rub by the media. I think that the federal PLP has gotten this mainly right. Just like it has with the bushfires and until COVID19 matters took over, Angus, sports and regional grants rorts.

    However, the Labor movement isn’t just comprised of the federal leader, his office, the front bench or even caucus. Us unionists, members and activists have some agency in all of this.

    I’d like to see the party machinery orchestrate a social and other media campaign involving activists, commentators, think tanks, satirical comedians etc to keep hitting ScoMo and his merry band of pirates as hard as possible on their continued fuck ups and general mean-spiritedness, whilst Albo and the team do their thing during the pandemic.

    This tandem strategy would reap dividends in 2022 in my view. Albo and the team keeping Labor credible and relevant and generally perceived as ‘positive’. ‘Us’ building the wall of sound for the inevitable pivot once the shit hits the fan for ScoMo after the pandemic passes.

    Please, I’d like some more information about this Tantric Energy you have harnessed.

  10. Scott @ #565 Monday, April 6th, 2020 – 2:38 pm

    Come this wednesday during house of reps sitting , no doubt Morrison and his cronies will waste no time in Bellowing like wounded bulls , and guess what the public will enjoy it and will continue to be gullible to pro coalition media , Morrison and his cronies

    Expect everything to be wrapped up before Question Time.

  11. CC

    The decision to not showing the modelling is to avoid panic and the lurid kind of headlines which would obviously ensue.

    Your description of the adviser as clueless is unfair.

  12. meher baba @ #570 Monday, April 6th, 2020 – 2:48 pm

    kakuru: “Doesn’t this require the economy go into hibernation for 1-2 years? Epidemiologically, this ‘third choice’ is sound. Economically, it equates to a Depression.”

    No, because as I said, it includes the goal of returning to normality as quickly as we can, as long as the curve remains relatively flat. In that sense, it is better than either of the other options, because, if things continue to improve, we could start to consider loosening some restrictions in a fortnight or so, with the proviso that we ramp them back up if things start to get worse again.

    With either the herd immunity or the eradication option, you will be waiting months and months. And how can you ever be certain that you’ve achieved eradication?

    Relax any effective measure and the curve will no longer be flat!!!!!

  13. Oakeshott Country says:
    Monday, April 6, 2020 at 5:33 pm

    Jon Snow was a Hamlet, too insecure and conflicted to bear the mantle of Tagaryen greatness.
    Little finger might pretend he no longer has ambitions for the throne but his true desires are obvious
    Albo’s character is Mace Tyrell
    ____________
    Ouch!

  14. Bucephalus @ #610 Monday, April 6th, 2020 – 5:35 pm

    Catmomma,

    I have no idea what a Senate Intern is but the fact remains that the unions control preselections with most going to Union employees and very few go to Rank & File members and almost all preselection positions are controlled by the Unions.

    And these days most Liberal Party positions are going to IPA alumni, former Mining Council lobbyists, and various other representatives of other Bosses unions,or Associations, or Councils, or Chambers, as they prefer to call them. But you think that’s okay but Labor choosing some representatives from the people who have devoted their lives to advocating and fighting for the working men and women of Australia is bad. I know you are simplistically trying on, ‘Unions Boo!’, but, in reality your Liberal Party mates do exactly the same thing from their side of the fence.

    Oh, and fyi, a Senate Intern is Work Experience for prospective Senators.

  15. Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #612 Monday, April 6th, 2020 – 5:36 pm

    Scott @ #565 Monday, April 6th, 2020 – 2:38 pm

    Come this wednesday during house of reps sitting , no doubt Morrison and his cronies will waste no time in Bellowing like wounded bulls , and guess what the public will enjoy it and will continue to be gullible to pro coalition media , Morrison and his cronies

    Expect everything to be wrapped up before Question Time.

    Agree, no one wants a shit fight at this time.

  16. Oakeshott Country @ #609 Monday, April 6th, 2020 – 5:33 pm

    Jon Snow was a Hamlet, too insecure and conflicted to bear the mantle of Tagaryen greatness.
    Little finger might pretend he no longer has ambitions for the throne but his true desires are obvious
    Albo’s character is Mace Tyrell

    Spot on. 😆

    Is there a Tywin Lannister about …?

  17. Is there a Tywin Lannister about …?
    _______________
    How about MT? Has exclusive beachfront property. Wins all but the most important battles. Thinks he’s smarter than he is. Refuses to make friends with anybody and shits gold.

  18. Just as well Labor didnt come up with this stimulus package. The RWNJs would have called for Albos resignation.

  19. Obviously all the people that complain that Labor is not fighting back, not criticising, just giving in to Christian Porter and the LNP, didn’t hear Tony Burke’s interview with Karvelas.

  20. “lizziesays:
    Monday, April 6, 2020 at 5:46 pm
    Obviously all the people that complain that Labor is not fighting back, not criticising, just giving in to Christian Porter and the LNP, didn’t hear Tony Burke’s interview with Karvelas.”

    Oh come on now. Unless the ALP either go ahead 65/35 on Newspoll, or immediately get the government to resign, then they’re going soft.

  21. guytaur @5:15

    “I see socialism has increased Morrison’s approval ratings.”

    Reminds me of how I was saying here on PB that Federal Labor would have done a lot better at the last election if it had stopped trying to win the “better economic manager” badge and it had stopped crying “our surplus will always be bigger” and if instead, Federal Labor had a massive spending program. Genuine, inspirational nation building. People actually buy into stuff that inspires hope and excites their imagination.

  22. Anyone aware of stats on hospital admissions in WA for the virus?

    This tracks ICU numbers, but not overall admissions.

  23. shellbell

    “The decision to not showing the modelling is to avoid panic and the lurid kind of headlines which would obviously ensue.”

    Yeah, in other words, we don’t want to panic people by telling them up front that we don’t have a clue about our exit strategy.

    “Your description of the adviser as clueless is unfair.”

    I said some advisers to the Federal government are clueless. That is actually true.
    There are actually some experts who “get it” also, so don’t paint me as having criticised everyone.

  24. These skypey interviews with people in their own homes are unsettling my dogs as so often there is barking in the background and they insist on replying to the TV. :sigh:

  25. nath @ #623 Monday, April 6th, 2020 – 5:44 pm

    Is there a Tywin Lannister about …?
    _______________
    How about MT? Has exclusive beachfront property. Wins all but the most important battles. Thinks he’s smarter than he is. Refuses to make friends with anybody and shits gold.

    Nah, Tywin lasted longer and did more than MT.

    MT was Tommen. Out of his depth.

  26. Cud Chewer @ #625 Monday, April 6th, 2020 – 5:48 pm

    guytaur @5:15

    “I see socialism has increased Morrison’s approval ratings.”

    Reminds me of how I was saying here on PB that Federal Labor would have done a lot better at the last election if it had stopped trying to win the “better economic manager” badge and it had stopped crying “our surplus will always be bigger” and if instead, Federal Labor had a massive spending program. Genuine, inspirational nation building. People actually buy into stuff that inspires hope and excites their imagination.

    Liberal socialism good.
    Labor socialism bad.

    It ain’t rocket science.

    Labor should be crowing from the rooftops about how the only way through this crisis was for the Liberal party to morph into a Labor party.
    They won’t of course.

    Timid is as timid does.

  27. lizzie @ #625 Monday, April 6th, 2020 – 5:46 pm

    Obviously all the people that complain that Labor is not fighting back, not criticising, just giving in to Christian Porter and the LNP, didn’t hear Tony Burke’s interview with Karvelas.

    Yes PK was left flustered and shaken at the end of that withering assault from Burke. One to remember…

  28. lizzie @ #622 Monday, April 6th, 2020 – 5:46 pm

    Obviously all the people that complain that Labor is not fighting back, not criticising, just giving in to Christian Porter and the LNP, didn’t hear Tony Burke’s interview with Karvelas.

    Sure, that’ll do it. An interview on a radio program that….how many people hear?
    Now if Burke had got himself on some halfarsed show like Sunrise and gone off, that’s be something.

  29. https://www.abc.net.au/radio/adelaide/programs/am/testing-for-coronavirus-expands/12124074

    For the first time today, an Australian jurisdiction will begin random testing for coronavirus.

    The ACT is expanding its testing regime to include more people with symptoms, as it searches for signs of community transmission.

    Across the country there are still many people with a flu-like illness that are not eligible to be checked.

    And skip to 3:13 and you can hear Brendan Murphy still being a dangerous fuckwit.

  30. I guess we now know who is buying all that toilet paper!

    eh what what? I have a linen cupboard full of Who Gives A Crap – delivered on a regular basis. Now that the little one has figured out she doesnt need to use a whole roll each time, we are swimming in the stuff.

    I was gonna take a bunch down to the local supermarket and sell in the carpark at a handy little profit but I aint that type of guy. And dont have time.

  31. Under the cover of darkness.. never let a crisis go to waste, and yes here it is:

    360,000 so far have registered their interest with the ATO, to withdraw the first $10,000 tranche of their super.

    That’s $3,600,000,000 about to be taken out of the scheme designed to fund people’s retirement; causing stock market sell off, lowering of confidence, taking cash at the bottom, and neuter the workers sovereign wealth fund.

    Josh will have his name emblazoned on the IPA Hall of Fame

  32. mundo

    Well, I foolishly imagined that those on PB who criticise so much would be interested enough to listen to political interviews. As Stuart Robert would say. My bad.

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