Something for the weekend

Random notes: a WA only poll on coronavirus, some detail on the elections in Queensland last Saturday, and a look at Donald Trump’s counter-intuitive poll bounce.

The West Australian had a Painted Dog Research poll of 500 respondents on attitudes to the coronavirus, with field work dates undisclosed – or at least its website did, as I can’t see any mention of it in the hard copy. What the online report ($) tells us is that 71% believed the federal government should “enforce a full lockdown”; that 25% expected three months of social distancing, and 23% six months; that 18% were extremely worried about losing their job by September, with another 42% slightly worried; and that 68% were most concerned about the health impact, compared with 28% for the economic impact.

Other than that, I have the following to relate about Queensland’s elections on the weekend, which I’ll put here as the dedicated post on the subject doesn’t seem to be doing much business:

• As the dust settles on the troubled counting process, it’s clear the Liberal National Party has enjoyed something of a triumph in the election for Brisbane City Council, extending their 16-year grip on the lord mayoralty and quite probably repeating their feat from 2016 of winning 19 out 26 wards on the council. Incumbent Adrian Schrinner leads Labor’s Pat Condren in the lord mayoral race by a margin of 5.5%, although the latter gained a 4.0% swing off Graham Quirk’s landslide win in 2016. The ABC projection is awarding 17 ward seats to the LNP, to which they look very likely to add Enoggera, while maintaining a slender lead over the Greens in Paddington. The Greens’ combined council ward vote is up 3.4% on 2016 to 17.9%, and they retained their sole existing seat of The Gabba with swings of 12.2% on the primary vote and 8.5% on two-party preferred.

• However, it was a less good performance by the LNP in the two state by-elections, where all the detail is laid out at my results pages for Bundamba and Currumbin. The party finished a distant third behind One Nation in Bundamba, which remains a safe seat for Labor, and have only narrowly held on in Currumbin, where Labor has achieved a rare feat for a governing party in picking up a swing of nearly 2% at a by-election. Party leader Deb Frecklington would nonetheless be relieved by the result, since a defeat in Currumbin, which a pre-election poll suggested was in prospect, would surely have imperilled her leadership, despite her being able to point to the highly unusual circumstances in which the election was held.

• Speaking of which, I offer the following numbers on the ways the enrolled voters of Bundamba and Currumbin did and didn’t vote, with the qualification that there is an indeterminate number of postals still to be counted — perhaps rather a few of them, given I understood that there had been a surge in applications (although it seems a number of applicants never received their ballots).

Finally, a few thoughts on the situation in the United States, elaborating on a subject covered in yesterday’s post here by Adrian Beaumont – you are encouraged to comment on that thread if you have something specific to offer on matters American, and in particular on Donald Trump’s confounding opinion poll bounce over the past few weeks. I sought to put the latter event in context in a paywalled Crikey article on Monday, the key feature of which is the following comparison of his approval rating trend, as measured by FiveThirtyEight, with comparable trend measures of my own for Angela Merkel, Boris Johnson, Emmanuel Macron and Scott Morrison.

The upshot is that leaders the world over are enjoying a “rally around the flag” approval bounce, and that Donald Trump’s looks meagre indeed compared with his colleagues across the Atlantic. I feel pretty sure that the lack of a clear bounce for Scott Morrison is down to the fact that there have been no new numbers since Essential Research’s poll of over a fortnight ago, with the surges for Merkel, Johnson and Macron being concentrated since that time.

It’s also interesting to observe that Trump’s improvement has not been consistently observed. The chart below records his trends so far from this year from the five most prolific pollsters. For some reason, Rasmussen, the pollster that is usually most favourable to him — and which is accordingly the most frequent subject of his vainglorious tweets on the odd occasion when it reaches 50% — has in fact found his approval rating going in the direction he deserves. There is also no sign of change from the Ipsos series. However, the improving trend from the other three is more in line with the many other pollsters included in the FiveThirtyEight series, hence its overall picture of his best ratings since his post-election honeymoon.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,303 comments on “Something for the weekend”

  1. For those who have not heard it, here is the full one minute version of Majestic Fanfare, recorded in 1943 with the composer Charles Williams conducting, then a more modern video featuring musicians of the Western Australian Symphony Orchestra:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nYvFa0RmBbg

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=unzaTZXst6k

    And then a trivia question for you movie buffs. What does the ABC news theme have to do with the film that won five Academy Awards in 1960? I’ll give you a clue:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l-Vh3QGVtB8

  2. I suspect Tony Burke copped a spray this morning after Sally McManus’s comments.
    Something along the lines of time to get off your arse and start doing your job.

  3. The second trumpet section of majestic fanfare was used to introduce the parliamentary broadcast when it was, quite rightly, on Local ABC.
    I remember being woken by it at 7 am when I lived in Perth and it was 10 am in Canberra

  4. Morrison is being wrapped in glitter already(from the SMH comments):

    enough is enough:
    Looking forward to the PM’s usual Sunday night brief to the Nation.
    Morrison is the most significant PM in the last 75 years.
    Uniting Australia during very challenging times.

    🙄

  5. The second trumpet section of majestic fanfare was used to introduce the parliamentary broadcast when it was, quite rightly, on Local ABC.
    I remember being woken by it at 7 am when I lived in Perth and it was 10 am in Canberra
    _____
    And many, many years ago the local ABC radio heralded its sports reports with the “Thunder and Lightning Polka”.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hASDPhh43xE

  6. I honestly can’t see what the problem is with what Tony Bourke has said:

    Shadow Industrial Relations Minister calls for improvements to JobKeeper scheme
    By Jennifer Duke

    Shadow Minister for Industrial Relations Tony Burke has backed the call to extend the JobKeeper scheme to casuals who have worked for their employer for less than 12 months.

    “We want to see it get through the parliament and we want to see it finding its way into businesses,” Mr Burke said at a press conference on Sunday afternoon about the $1500 a fortnight wage subsidy.

    But he said there were “improvements that can be done to make sure people don’t fall through the cracks”.

    And if you don’t think that Sally McManus, Greg Combet and Tony Bourke haven’t been working TOGETHER on this, then you don’t want to know.

  7. Poroti
    In my job I usually found that the permanent casuals who didn’t want to be permanent had a reason. The reason was often poor workplace practices in relation to rosters.
    I would offer them permanency, set hours, set shifts and they would decline. I would then offer those hours and shifts to someone else. The casual would then complain about getting no work.
    In my view if you need x number of workers you can’t afford to load your rosters with casuals who are unavailable at peak times such as holidays and flu season. By offering permanent part time with a negotiated minimum hours you have flexibility on both sides of the equation.
    Unfortunately some unscrupulous employers offer permanency with no minimal hours, I don’t know why the union has allowed this to happen.

  8. I know of a few instances where an employee has worked in the same business for several years as a casual , but as the business has changed hands recently, are not covered.
    Another problem that needs addressing.

  9. A little ray of sunshine from America:

    Several scientists said it was too early to make ironclad statements about whether social distancing was having a powerful effect. In a few cities that acted early, including New York, San Francisco and Seattle, new reported cases have begun to slow, providing some optimism that control measures work.

    “The growth rate in New York City is slowing. We do have evidence that measures we put in place two or three weeks ago may be having an effect,” said Jeffrey Shaman, a professor of environmental health sciences at Columbia University. Data from Seattle and San Francisco, he said, shows “they’ve slowed it in spots.”

    “But whether they’re going to hold onto it is an open question,” he added.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/03/us/politics/coronavirus-trump-medical-advisers.html

  10. Enough is enough, Hacka and a few other regular rw supporters have been on the SMH/Age for so long it’s hard not to believe they don’t work for the conservative parties.
    I used to comment occasionally but read daily and they were there every single day blowing smoke up conservative behinds and bagging out labor.

  11. I’m on 40mg Mizart. I wasn’t going to stop but I became concerned when the reports came out.
    My doctor has been happy with my bp when tested so I guess I just keep on keeping on and hope my children don’t bring the bloody thing home.
    I did like that spellchecker changed Mizart to Mozart.

  12. BK @ #1956 Sunday, April 5th, 2020 – 12:38 pm

    The second trumpet section of majestic fanfare was used to introduce the parliamentary broadcast when it was, quite rightly, on Local ABC.
    I remember being woken by it at 7 am when I lived in Perth and it was 10 am in Canberra
    _____
    And many, many years ago the local ABC radio heralded its sports reports with the “Thunder and Lightning Polka”.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hASDPhh43xE

    The conductor reminds me of Jack Nicholson!

  13. Aqualung

    I had a very strong suspicion Hacka was an “inside job” . Hacka was first comment on way too many occasions and their inflammatory style was perfect to produce the clicks from the ‘outraged’ readers.

  14. Morrison is being wrapped in glitter already(from the SMH comments):

    enough is enough:
    Looking forward to the PM’s usual Sunday night brief to the Nation.
    Morrison is the most significant PM in the last 75 years.
    Uniting Australia during very challenging times.

    I wouldn’t put too much weight on this particular commenter in the SMH comments. He/she is a well known Liberal shill and defends anything the LNP does without question. He/she does not represent the overall majority of comments there although I do agree this is the type of narrative the LNP groupies will now try and shove down our throats.

    Move over Mary Mckillop and make way for Saint Scomo.

    cheers

  15. Oakshott Country:

    The current flu vax was released 10 days ago to high vulnerable groups and more general release from now. One way to control flu is with a lockdown. Indeed, the NSW Health pandemic plan is a modified version of the pandemic flu plan. Flu vax is absolutely vital this year

    Statement from the College of GPs mentions there are two different flu vaccines:

    https://www.racgp.org.au/gp-news/media-releases/2020-media-releases/march-2020/racgp-issues-new-advice-for-people-to-get-flu-vacc

    “Older people, aged over 65 years, are advised to wait for a special flu vaccine for their more at-risk age group that provides enhanced immunogenicity. Patients will be able to get the special the Quadrivalent Influenza Vaccine (QIV) from their GP from mid-April.”

  16. imaXXXXXandivote

    Morrison is the most significant PM in the last 75 years.
    Uniting Australia during very challenging times.

    I smell an organised campaign. That is about the fifth variation of that claim I’ve seen in the msm over the last 48 hours. Great minds thinking alike ? 😆 I think not .

  17. “It’s Timesays:
    Sunday, April 5, 2020 at 1:35 pm
    Is today’s confirmed cases of about 117 too good to be true? Are there fewer tests because the plane and ship arrivals have washed through the system? Looks to be the case in NSW anyway.”

    No. NSW testing rate is holding up

    https://www.covidlive.com.au/state/nsw

  18. E. G. Theodore @ #1968 Sunday, April 5th, 2020 – 3:02 pm

    The current flu vax was released 10 days ago to high vulnerable groups and more general release from now. One way to control flu is with a lockdown. Indeed, the NSW Health pandemic plan is a modified version of the pandemic flu plan. Flu vax is absolutely vital this year

    Statement from the College of GPs mentions there are actually two different flu vaccines:

    https://www.racgp.org.au/gp-news/media-releases/2020-media-releases/march-2020/racgp-issues-new-advice-for-people-to-get-flu-vacc

    “Older people, aged over 65 years, are advised to wait for a special flu vaccine for their more at-risk age group that provides enhanced immunogenicity. Patients will be able to get the special the Quadrivalent Influenza Vaccine (QIV) from their GP from mid-April.”

    Interesting because we both received flu shots last week from our GP and hubby is over 65. I have health issues that mean I am vulnerable and receive a free one as well. We are in Victoria

  19. Agreed poroti and imaXXXXandivote. Hacka did try his hand at the guardian and beat a hasty retreat very quickly.
    I think Hacka found out very quickly that he was out of his depth there.

  20. And then a trivia question for you movie buffs. What does the ABC news theme have to do with the film that won five Academy Awards in 1960? I’ll give you a clue:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l-Vh3QGVtB8

    ————————————————————–

    OK TIme’s up.

    The magnificent theme from Billy Wilder’s The Apartment was actually written by Majestic Fanfare composer Charles Williams as “Jealous Lover” for a British film “A Romantic Age,” in 1949.

    The score for The Apartment was arranged by veteran studio conductor Adolph Deutsch who is wrongly given credit for the music. As far as I know, Williams was not given any screen credit for the central theme. I suspect that Deutsch’s score was not nominated for an Oscar that year because it was not an original work.

    Wilder had probably heard the 1949 recording of Jealous Lover conducted by Williams and thought: “My god, that would be a sensational soundtrack score.”

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CWojcHWdDAg

    Williams other well-known major composition, Dream of Olwen, was written for another British film
    “While I Live” in 1947

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2_nYes6TIxE

  21. The coronial inquiry into DreamWorld, which addressed four deaths the cause of which was not controversial, took 3 years and change.

    The Ruby Princess coronial inquiry “may be gone for a while”.

  22. Re Flu vax
    I was talking to my mum about the flu vax and asked what arrangements had been made to allow her to access it. It turns out that you can go to the chemist or GP but no processes have been arranged to have it given at home. I would have thought that clients of community care packages would have had some arrangements made for them.

  23. poroti
    If we get through COVID relatively unscathed, the majority will fall for this line. All the stumbles and the ineptitude on display during the bushfire crisis will, unfortunately, be forgotten.

    With his media mates providing supporting hagiographies, cannonisation and then beatification is inevitable. Politically, the next election and probably the one after that would be in the bag.

    However, the alternative would be to wish him to fail in handling the COVID situation. From a humanitarian and patriotic POV, we can’t support that wish.

    Cheers

  24. This is a stretch from Fuller (c/o Guardian). I don’t think they could even get this going for Zeebrugge.

    [criminal negligence-type crimes]

  25. Shellbells

    The coronial inquiry into DreamWorld, which addressed four deaths the cause of which was not controversial, took 3 years and change

    Added to that there are political actors and senior bureaucrats involved, all black belts in the arts of arse covering and buck passing, it will be a veery long process.

  26. imaXXXXXandivote @ #1978 Sunday, April 5th, 2020 – 3:21 pm

    poroti
    If we get through COVID relatively unscathed, the majority will fall for this line. All the stumbles and the ineptitude on display during the bushfire crisis will, unfortunately, be forgotten.

    With his media mates providing supporting hagiographies, cannonisation and then beatification is inevitable. Politically, the next election and probably the one after that would be in the bag.

    However, the alternative would be to wish him to fail in handling the COVID situation. From a humanitarian and patriotic POV, we can’t support that wish.

    Cheers

    Spending the money is one thing. Getting it back will make the special interest groups scream blue murder.

  27. Phew…

    My sister has finally figured out that its too risky for my mum if she visits..
    This is after weeks of regurgitating stuff she’s heard from Alan Jones and his mates.

  28. A SiL and BiL couple went to get their flu shots in a Shep carpark.
    They drove in, wound down their windows, were jabbed left and right, and off they drove.
    Another rellie made the point that in Shep you had better be sure that you have the right car park.

  29. A previous comment about the existential stakes in U.S. Federal election this November prompted me to re-check psephologist Charlie Cook’s website (cookpolitical.com) for his current projections of races for the 35 Senate seats which will be decided this time.

    In the 2020 Senate there are now 53 Republicans (including Rand Paul) and 47 members of the Democratic Caucus (including Independents Bernie Sanders and Angus King).

    Democrats will be defending 12 Senate held seats. .
    Republicans will be defending 23 held seats.

    Cook reckons Alabama leans to the Republicans against incumbent Democrat Doug Jones who defeated former state Supreme Court Judge Roy Moore, an alleged assaulter, in the 2017 by-election to replace Jeff Sessions.

    Cook rates 4 states, all of them currently held by Republicans, to be toss ups: incumbents Collins in Maine, McSally in Arizona, Gardner in Colorado, Tillis in North Carolina.

    If, say, the Democrats win all 4 toss ups but lose Alabama, then any 50-50 tied votes will be broken by the Vice President (Kamala Harris? Elizabeth Warren? Amy Klobuchar? Stacey Abrams? Gretchen Whitmer? etc.?).

    Obviously, if Mitch McConnell retains Majority Leader next year, presumptive Prez. Joe Biden would probably get zero judges confirmed for any higher appellate court let alone the Supreme Court, and Biden would only be able to make significant changes by issuing executive orders. However, Biden would still command far more power with his foreign policies.

    Cook’s Presidential Electoral College projection currently rates the presumptive Democratic Nominee at 232 votes, so Biden would need 38 more to win. Rated as toss ups are the following 5 states with a total of 86 Electoral College votes: Arizona (11), Florida (29), Michigan (16), Pennsylvania (20), Wisconsin (10).

  30. Boerwar @ #1986 Sunday, April 5th, 2020 – 3:34 pm

    A SiL and BiL couple went to get their flu shots in a Shep carpark.
    They drove in, wound down their windows, were jabbed left and right, and off they drove.
    Another rellie made the point that in Shep you had better be sure that you have the right car park.

    A bit of a worry. You’re supposed to wait 15 minutes to see if you have an adverse reaction. Maybe all the locals drive like they have one anyway.

  31. Aqualung:

    [‘I think Hacka found out very quickly that he was out of his depth there.’]

    Hacka sees himself as an intellectual. “enough is enough” (aka “nuffity”) is Hacka lite. They often work in unison, always in agreement with what the government’s doing, even condoning Morrisons’s Hawaii trip. I think they both work in the bowels of IPA HQ.

  32. The joys of the lockdown
    I am watching Carry on Camping and Barbara Windsor just lost her bra.
    Didn’t see that coming!

  33. Oakeshott:

    The joys of the lockdown
    I am watching Carry on Camping and Barbara Windsor just lost her bra.
    Didn’t see that coming!

    But did she restitch it into a makeshift face-mask?

  34. Another rellie made the point that in Shep you had better be sure that you have the right car park.

    Still?
    Been that way for over 20y then.

  35. Methinks the reason Scrott has not released the modelling is being uncovered. Although i’d have to say deliberately given the place it appears.
    ………………………………………………………………………………………………
    Australians can expect to be cooped up in isolation until summer, based on yet-to-be-released modelling that reveals the number of hospitalised coronavirus cases won’t peak until the end of October.
    https://www.news.com.au/finance/economy/australian-economy/coronavirus-new-modelling-reveals-australians-could-be-locked-in-isolation-for-months/news-story/221c5a7b21cc8dadb997ac5b6a51ba05

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