Something for the weekend

Random notes: a WA only poll on coronavirus, some detail on the elections in Queensland last Saturday, and a look at Donald Trump’s counter-intuitive poll bounce.

The West Australian had a Painted Dog Research poll of 500 respondents on attitudes to the coronavirus, with field work dates undisclosed – or at least its website did, as I can’t see any mention of it in the hard copy. What the online report ($) tells us is that 71% believed the federal government should “enforce a full lockdown”; that 25% expected three months of social distancing, and 23% six months; that 18% were extremely worried about losing their job by September, with another 42% slightly worried; and that 68% were most concerned about the health impact, compared with 28% for the economic impact.

Other than that, I have the following to relate about Queensland’s elections on the weekend, which I’ll put here as the dedicated post on the subject doesn’t seem to be doing much business:

• As the dust settles on the troubled counting process, it’s clear the Liberal National Party has enjoyed something of a triumph in the election for Brisbane City Council, extending their 16-year grip on the lord mayoralty and quite probably repeating their feat from 2016 of winning 19 out 26 wards on the council. Incumbent Adrian Schrinner leads Labor’s Pat Condren in the lord mayoral race by a margin of 5.5%, although the latter gained a 4.0% swing off Graham Quirk’s landslide win in 2016. The ABC projection is awarding 17 ward seats to the LNP, to which they look very likely to add Enoggera, while maintaining a slender lead over the Greens in Paddington. The Greens’ combined council ward vote is up 3.4% on 2016 to 17.9%, and they retained their sole existing seat of The Gabba with swings of 12.2% on the primary vote and 8.5% on two-party preferred.

• However, it was a less good performance by the LNP in the two state by-elections, where all the detail is laid out at my results pages for Bundamba and Currumbin. The party finished a distant third behind One Nation in Bundamba, which remains a safe seat for Labor, and have only narrowly held on in Currumbin, where Labor has achieved a rare feat for a governing party in picking up a swing of nearly 2% at a by-election. Party leader Deb Frecklington would nonetheless be relieved by the result, since a defeat in Currumbin, which a pre-election poll suggested was in prospect, would surely have imperilled her leadership, despite her being able to point to the highly unusual circumstances in which the election was held.

• Speaking of which, I offer the following numbers on the ways the enrolled voters of Bundamba and Currumbin did and didn’t vote, with the qualification that there is an indeterminate number of postals still to be counted — perhaps rather a few of them, given I understood that there had been a surge in applications (although it seems a number of applicants never received their ballots).

Finally, a few thoughts on the situation in the United States, elaborating on a subject covered in yesterday’s post here by Adrian Beaumont – you are encouraged to comment on that thread if you have something specific to offer on matters American, and in particular on Donald Trump’s confounding opinion poll bounce over the past few weeks. I sought to put the latter event in context in a paywalled Crikey article on Monday, the key feature of which is the following comparison of his approval rating trend, as measured by FiveThirtyEight, with comparable trend measures of my own for Angela Merkel, Boris Johnson, Emmanuel Macron and Scott Morrison.

The upshot is that leaders the world over are enjoying a “rally around the flag” approval bounce, and that Donald Trump’s looks meagre indeed compared with his colleagues across the Atlantic. I feel pretty sure that the lack of a clear bounce for Scott Morrison is down to the fact that there have been no new numbers since Essential Research’s poll of over a fortnight ago, with the surges for Merkel, Johnson and Macron being concentrated since that time.

It’s also interesting to observe that Trump’s improvement has not been consistently observed. The chart below records his trends so far from this year from the five most prolific pollsters. For some reason, Rasmussen, the pollster that is usually most favourable to him — and which is accordingly the most frequent subject of his vainglorious tweets on the odd occasion when it reaches 50% — has in fact found his approval rating going in the direction he deserves. There is also no sign of change from the Ipsos series. However, the improving trend from the other three is more in line with the many other pollsters included in the FiveThirtyEight series, hence its overall picture of his best ratings since his post-election honeymoon.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,303 comments on “Something for the weekend”

  1. Mavis,

    Hacka sees himself as an intellectual. “enough is enough” (aka “nuffity”) is Hacka lite. They often work in unison,

    I would agree with that observation.
    The 9fax moderators would appear to protect them as well willingly or otherwise. My experience with SMH is that they reject comments for no apparent reason and refuse to engage when you try to find out why a comment was rejected.
    The guardian have a more tolerant manner. I’ve even had a comment restored when I challenged the rejection.

  2. earlier discussion of UK TV shows …….. my absolute fav was/is MINDER

    The original show starred Dennis Waterman as Terry McCann, an honest and likeable bodyguard (minder in London slang) and George Cole as Arthur Daley, a socially ambitious, but highly unscrupulous importer-exporter, wholesaler, used-car salesman and purveyor of anything else from which there was money to be made, whether within the law or not.

    Arfur Daley – was easily one of the best characters on TV – Arthur Daley, the crooked car salesman in the phenomenally popular Eighties comedy-drama Minder, coined enough catchphrases to fill his trilby hat: ‘Stand on me’, ‘Nice little earner’, ‘Stick it on the slate, Dave’.

    Actor George Cole, who played the character for 15 years , will forever be associated with one phrase above all, a mixture of grudging respect and fear, that denoted the unscrupulous Arthur’s wife: ‘Er Indoors.’

    We never saw her. She didn’t lower herself by visiting the grotty West London watering hole, The Winchester, where ‘Arfur’ knocked back VATs (vodkas-and-tonic) and hatched schemes to swindle mug punters.

    But she was the one person who could put the fear of God into the chiseller in the camel-hair overcoat. Puffing on his corona cigars, Arthur wasn’t bothered by local toughs — he had his minder Terry to take care of strong-arm business. His missus was a different proposition. ‘What about Er Indoors,’ he would protest, ‘what’s she gonna say when she comes back from her sister’s?’

    CLASSIC UK TV

  3. India like to brag about their cricket. Ask them how many Olympic gold medals they have won (they can include Winter ones if they like) and they go a bit quiet.

  4. Shellbell
    I’m not sure the Ruby Princess meets the requirements for a coronial referral. Dreamworld did because they were sudden violent deaths. I actually can’t see grounds for a referral if it was SA.

    “death must be reported to the State Coroner where it has occurred:

    1. unexpectedly, unusually or by a violent, unnatural or unknown cause
    2. on a flight or voyage to South Australia
    3. while in custody
    4. during, as a result or within 24 hours of certain surgical or invasive medical procedures, including the giving of an anaesthetic for the purpose of performing the procedure
    5. within 24 hours of being discharged from a hospital or having sought emergency treatment at a hospital
    while the deceased was a ‘protected’ person
    6. while the deceased was under a custody or guardianship order under the Children’s Protection Act 1993
    7. while the deceased was a patient in an approved treatment centre under the Mental Health Act 2009
    8. while the deceased was a resident of a licensed supported residential facility under the Supported Residential Facilities Act 1992
    9. while the deceased was in a hospital or other facility being treated for drug addiction
    10. during, as a result or within 24 hours of medical treatment to which consent had been given under Part 5 of the Guardianship and Administration Act 1993

  5. Simon Katich says:
    Sunday, April 5, 2020 at 4:01 pm

    India like to brag about their cricket. Ask them how many Olympic gold medals they have won (they can include Winter ones if they like) and they go a bit quiet.
    ___________________
    India has a poor record. Which is strange considering all their Olympic pools, diving platforms, athletic tracks etc etc.

  6. “There is clear evidence that [Covid-19] has been brought off that ship,” Fuller says. There’s clear evidence now when it stopped in New Zealand Covid-19 has come off that ship and at least 10 people have died in Australia from COVID-19. The only way I can get to the bottom of whether our national biosecurity laws and our state laws were broken is through a criminal investigation.”

    He adds: “The investigation will look into the actions of every agency.”

  7. This is a cracking documentary. 1976, with many of the relevant people still alive to talk about the magnificent Spit. I’m sure I watched this 30 or 40 years ago, but I was more appreciative of the historical detail this time.

    https://youtu.be/EA-lYGvBH4I

  8. Aqualung:

    I agree with your critique. I’ve been on the SMH site for some time and as you say, the moderation is at times over the top relative to the Guardian and of course this site. I reckon that some of the more colourful contributors to PB would be in a little bother over at the SMH site, less so on the Guardian site.

  9. poroti says: Sunday, April 5, 2020 at 4:07 pm

    phoenixRED
    It was indeed a classic.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bNRkwNC9Ms4

    ****************************************************************

    Thanks Poroti – I have every series on DVD – and watch then from end to end once a year – was just unmatched for drama, humour and brilliant acting by George Cole …..

    I will always remember when Arthur Daley was running for council and this guy was asking him questions on his application form

    “Do you have any criminal record Mr Daley ?”

    “Oh … I did not realise that was a necessity to be on the council”

    Even the cops on the show had a soft spot for Arthur as it was a tit for tat relationship – each side doing each a favour when necessity happened with some crim activity on their patch

  10. India has a poor record. Which is strange considering all their Olympic pools, diving platforms, athletic tracks etc etc.

    Excuses excuses. Uzbekistan, competing in far fewer olympics than India and with a population of 1/50th of India, has about the same number of gold medals.
    So bloody Kholi can stick his smarmy smile.

  11. Greensborough Growler @ #2013 Sunday, April 5th, 2020 – 3:46 pm

    Adelaide today, as vibrant as ever. Taking the Covid 19 virus in it’s stride.

    ” rel=”nofollow”>

    That is usually a very busy and vibrant mall, with lots of locals, tourists, families with kids and buskers. My favourite is the Brass Pigs. Adelaide Arcade has a group of very interesting little shops. All of those will be closed now.
    Those Mall’s Balls are so iconic.
    “A Day Out” by Marguerite Derricourt

  12. Diogenes

    NZ daily reports detail ‘confirmed’ and ‘probable’ . Do you know what they would classify as ‘probable’ ? It is not to hide the true numbers as both confirmed and probable are counted as one in the daily and total number of infections. It intrigues me as there seems to be a large upward trend in the % of “probables” in the daily tally.

  13. PuffyTMD @ #2022 Sunday, April 5th, 2020 – 4:30 pm

    Greensborough Growler @ #2013 Sunday, April 5th, 2020 – 3:46 pm

    Adelaide today, as vibrant as ever. Taking the Covid 19 virus in it’s stride.

    <a href="” rel=”nofollow”>” rel=”nofollow”>

    That is usually a very busy and vibrant mall, with lots of locals, tourists, families with kids and buskers. My favourite is the Brass Pigs. Adelaide Arcade has a group of very interesting little shops. All of those will be closed now.
    Those Mall’s Balls are so iconic.
    “A Day Out” by Marguerite Derricourt

    Looks like party time in Adelaide to me.

  14. India and Covid

    Arundhati Roy – The pandemic is a portal

    https://www.ft.com/content/10d8f5e8-74eb-11ea-95fe-fcd274e920ca

    Ends it all with

    “Historically, pandemics have forced humans to break with the past and imagine their world anew. This one is no different. It is a portal, a gateway between one world and the next.

    We can choose to walk through it, dragging the carcasses of our prejudice and hatred, our avarice, our data banks and dead ideas, our dead rivers and smoky skies behind us. Or we can walk through lightly, with little luggage, ready to imagine another world. And ready to fight for it.”

  15. The designer of the silver balls sculpture is the father of the lady who runs the local hire shop. Her son is also an artist who just landed a big commission for another sculpture here in Adelaide.

  16. Hearing losts of emission reduction stories.

    Here is Hanoi today. Apparently the mountains in the bacground have been blotted out for years.

  17. GG
    Have you ever been to Adelaide? The Mall is deserted when the shops close, naturally. There is more than one place to go in Adelaide and surrounds, you know.

    But that is fine, mate, we are happy for the disdainfully ignorant to stay right where they are.

  18. Uzbekistan had a legacy of Soviet sporting facilities that would have been close to world class at the end of the Cold War.

    Have you been to Uzbekistan? The have a pretty good metro…. when it isnt falling apart.
    Anyways.. you dont need expensive facilities for some sports.

  19. Some future changes in sport ? E Sport has become big in the online game industry but this ‘plague’ has seen it taken a step further. Actual Indy Car race drivers racing online and broadcast.
    —————————————————–
    Invited as a guest driver and watched by a US television audience, McLaughlin had to wake at 2am on Sunday at his Brisbane home to contest the second iRacing series race at Barber Motorsports Park in Alabama on his simulator.

    The early start didn’t faze him as he won from countryman and Penske teammate Will Power, who was racing from his home in North Carolina, and Indycar rookie Alex Salou, who was in Spain.

    McLaughlin, who placed fourth in last week’s first race, said hours of practice as a teen were paying dividends as the Indycar series attempts to create content during the worldwide shutdown of sports.

    IRacing controlled the feed, but drivers used their own social media channels to give viewers a closer look at their experience.

    The most entertaining driver through the race was Conor Daly on one of his social media feeds, where he lamented, “this is literally the least fun I’ve had the entire quarantine,” after he was run off course.

    Daly also alerted viewers that Power on his radio had called five-time Indycar series champion Scott Dixon of New Zealand “a wanker” – an offence that led iRacing to cut Power’s chat ability.

    https://www.nzherald.co.nz/sport/news/article.cfm?c_id=4&objectid=12322605

  20. Well I’ve been sitting in the warm Autumn sunshine on my veranda this afternoon and reading my latest copy of The Monthly which features Paddy Manning’s fantastic read, ‘After the Explosion
    The true story of the future of The Nationals’.

    Boy, were they on the take before last year’s election! They’d put Arfur Daley to shame!

  21. Morrison is the most significant PM in the last 75 years.
    Uniting Australia during very challenging times.

    Howard must be muttering, “how soon they forget”, while Menzies turns in his grave. But then you could argue, neither of those stand out for their policy achievements either.

  22. Simon Katich

    Back in the day the Kenyan runners showed having little more than a goat track does not stop you winning Gold Gold Gold for Kenya.

  23. “DMsays:
    Sunday, April 5, 2020 at 3:41 pm
    Blobbit
    You can add 17 more from WA. Haven’t seen SA’s numbers yet”

    Giving the graphs a break today.

    The 17 isn’t quite as bad as it sounds.

    “Of these, nine had a recent history of overseas travel, with three having been passengers on cruise ships, including one from the Ruby Princess.

    Five cases are still under investigation, with the Health Department undertaking contact tracing.”

  24. PuffyTMD @ #2032 Sunday, April 5th, 2020 – 4:43 pm

    GG
    Have you ever been to Adelaide? The Mall is deserted when the shops close, naturally. There is more than one place to go in Adelaide and surrounds, you know.

    But that is fine, mate, we are happy for the disdainfully ignorant to stay right where they are.

    You don’t go to Adelaide. You come from adelaide.

  25. There are bound to be long term effects of COVID-19 on Australia and the world, but trying to predict how it will affect the 2022 Federal election is a mug’s game. If an election were held now-ish, or if Scomo tried to engineer a double dissolution in a year or so when, hopefully, we’re over the worst of it, there’s a reasonable chance people would feel motivated to stay with the status quo and give the government undeserved credit for getting us through it. If an election is held in May 2022, any number of other events will have come and gone in the meantime. You’d hope not, but there could well be 2 more years of horrendous bushfire seasons before we next go to the polls. Withdrawal of the temporary COVID largesse will carry its own risks. There’ll never be a right time to take away the safety net, and the coalition are as likely to be punished for withdrawing it, as they are rewarded for putting it in place. And if the recession turns into a depression – who knows what that will mean. There are great opportunities and significant risks for progressive political movements over the next few years.

  26. “He said SA was in a “better position” than the eastern states.”

    Eh? SA is part of the eastern states. What’s he on about?

  27. max

    There are great opportunities and significant risks for progressive political movements over the next few years.

    The barbarians and the ‘fascists’ will be thinking the same thing about their own chances.

  28. SA is part of the eastern states. What’s he on about?

    Locals still bring up the border dispute with Victoria like it was a old war, bitterly fought and never forgotten.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *