Another three things

A bluffers’ guide to Saturday’s elections in Queensland, plus further items of marginal interest.

No Newspoll this week it seems. News you can use:

• Queensland’s elections on the weekend are covered in extensive and ongoing detail here. To cut a long story short: the state by-elections of Bundamba and Currumbin resulted in victories for the incumbent parties, namely Labor and the Liberal National Party respectively; Adrian Schrinner of the LNP was re-elected as lord mayor of Brisbane; and the LNP have almost certainly retained a healthy majority on Brisbane City Council. In Bundamba, the LNP ran third behind One Nation (and probably shouldn’t have bothered to run), whose presence in the field also took a bite out of the Labor primary vote. Labor did manage to improve their primary vote at the LNP’s expense in Currumbin, where One Nation is a lot weaker, but the latter’s presence means they will get a lower share of the combined preferences and thus fail to bite into the LNP’s existing 3.3% margin. There has been no notional two-party count, but scrutineers’ figures cited by Antony Green suggest Labor received an uncommonly weak 71% share of Greens preferences.

• Roy Morgan’s promise that it would provide further detail on its half-way intriguing findings on trust in political and business leaders (see here and here) has borne disappointing fruit. Rather than provide the trust and distrust scores as most of us would have hoped, a follow-up release offers only blurry impressions as to the specific attributes that caused the various leaders to be trusted or distrusted, in which “honest/genuine” and “integrity/sincerity” were uselessly listed as distinct response options.

• The Tasmanian government has delayed the date for the periodical Legislative Council elections, which this year encompass the seats of Huon and Rosevears, but only from May 2 to May 30. The Tasmanian Electoral Commission says this will give it more time to “ensure electors have access to the voting process and to maintain the integrity of the 2020 Legislative Council elections during the COVID-19 pandemic”, which presumably means a greater emphasis on postal, pre-poll and maybe telephone voting.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,029 comments on “Another three things”

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  1. The wage subsidy also needs to be simple to apply for. It does not need to be complicated, complex and involving rain forests of forms to complete.

    If it is too complex administratively then it is useless. Just look at the bushfire relief debacle.

    Must include casuals, gig workers and sole traders.

    Must be simple and straightforward to implement. No complexity.

    Unless it meets the above two criteria then it is bullshit.

  2. It’s time

    Exactly what I was saying last night during Morrisons latest presser which virtually signalled a lockdown. Of course, he couldn’t bring himself to saying that. Which was in itself rather strange.

  3. So, we’re coming up to stimulus package 3 and not one dollar has actually been habded out to anyone yet?!

    If only the media had some warning, perhaps if it had happened before, then they would be a little bit sceptical and less adoring when these lying sociopaths announce things, many of which will almost certainly never happen. How are those bushfire victims enjoying the billions that was raised for them. They should be living the high life planning new bigger better houses yes?

  4. NSW has announced it WILL enforce the two people restriction, with a $1000 fine (up to six months jail is also on the cards for repeat offenders)

  5. Florida residents pack into megachurch after pastor promises he can cure coronavirus

    While scientists and doctors are urging people to social-distance to stop the spread of the coronavirus, one Florida megachurch bucked the trend to host their own service on Sunday that packed people in with a dangerous crowd.

    The River Church in Tampa was packed with people looking for hope, TMZ reported Sunday. Pastor Rodney Howard-Browne has denounced the social distancing claiming that he can cure the coronavirus just like he did with the Zika virus (which still exists).

    Howard-Browne promised his flock that he would never close the church, regardless of what scientists and doctors say.

    “We are not stopping anything. I’ve got news for you, this church will never close. The only time the church will close is when the Rapture is taking place,”

    FFS

    https://www.rawstory.com/2020/03/florida-residents-pack-into-megachurch-after-pastor-promises-he-can-cure-coronavirus/

  6. Victoria @ #57 Monday, March 30th, 2020 – 8:44 am

    It’s time

    Exactly what I was saying last night during Morrisons latest presser which virtually signalled a lockdown. Of course, he couldn’t bring himself to saying that. Which was in itself rather strange.

    Looks like a jurisdictional issue. It’s up to the states to Police it.

  7. My view is if the latest measures are complied with by the public, we can be optimistic of success by the middle of May

  8. C@t

    Been watching Insiders.
    Credit due to Albo. I don’t think Labor has been absolutely specific about the particular form of lock down but its pretty clear to me that Albo gets it in terms of doing more, now.

  9. Matt Bevan
    @MatthewBevan
    · 1h
    I dunno but I find it weird that the government are still running the old “drop it to the papers – give a nod on the radio – make it official mid-morning” playbook when it comes to announcements on coronavirus policy.

    “You’ll have to tune in…” says the Treasurer today.

  10. GG

    From what has been reported, Vic Police have been out and about doing just that.

    From a sociological aspect, all I can say is that thank goodness we live in times where there is technology to keep the masses distracted.

    As long as the power doesn’t cut out, we should get through this without chaos ensuing.

  11. I’m still finding it impossible to accept that people believe in the Rapture. I just can’t.

    The only time the church will close is when the Rapture is taking place

  12. Insiders 12:35

    Lenore Taylor says what I’ve been saying.

    “From where I sit it seems like some of the sectors of the economy that we are seeking to protect with the current sort of dial-down level are going under anyway. Myers is shutting anyway. Retailers are going under anyway. So I think it would be smart to err on the side of caution and dial the economy down further, now”

    In other words, so much of the argument that we can’t deflate the economy further is immaterial. Its happening. It might as well be orderly.

  13. Victoria

    I hope so. But just in case, my generator is ready. Enough to power a couple of fridges, a TV and a PC.

  14. And we have the benefit of hindsight here in Australia. We are seeing what is happening overseas and it is incumbent on us to do what is required to stop the spread of the virus.

  15. I’ll add that my 4G based internet connection was woefully slow before this. Now it grinds to a near halt most evenings.

  16. Victoria

    We have the benefit of being able to learn what went well in South Korea and China yet we are not replicating some of the good features of their response. Btw see that video I posted on the first page. A well respected senior South Korean expert in an interview.

  17. Cud chewer

    Power is of course an essential service and unless we have tornadoes and the like, we should be fine. Lol

  18. Cud Chewer @ #63 Monday, March 30th, 2020 – 8:48 am

    C@t

    Been watching Insiders.
    Credit due to Albo. I don’t think Labor has been absolutely specific about the particular form of lock down but its pretty clear to me that Albo gets it in terms of doing more, now.

    From my imperfect eidatic memory, ;), I seem to remember Professor John Dwyer was a Health Adviser to Labor between 2007-2013. So he probably still calls for a chat and some friendly advice. 🙂

  19. CC

    I don’t understand why you link graphs about diagnosed cases and academic commentary on them with your approval and when statistics about diagnosed cases here are advanced, you say they are meaningless.

  20. Cud chewer

    I havent said much about China and their response to date.
    Some bludgers accuse others of being racist whenever matters are mentioned.

    But China took draconian actions, only after the horse bolted. Now the rest of the world are paying the price. China has a frickin lot to answer for.

  21. Victoria
    says:
    But China took draconian actions, only after the horse bolted. Now the rest of the world are paying the price. China has a frickin lot to answer for.
    __________________
    what does China have to answer for? What an inane statement.

  22. Victoria @ #76 Monday, March 30th, 2020 – 5:57 am

    Cud chewer

    Power is of course an essential service and unless we have tornadoes and the like, we should be fine. Lol

    Yes and if we do then some of those industries some were saying yesterday should close out of respect to everyone else will be needed to restore services 🙂

  23. Victoria

    I live in a location where the power network is fragile and it routinely dies any time there is a storm or some fool crashes into a pole – we lose power for several hours or more half a dozen times a year.

  24. Confessions I don’t see an issue with the core of the power grid. What I see happening is a further shortage of repair crews.

  25. Nath
    China took its time in alerting international health authorities and that was after it was leaked by Wuhan doctors with one of the whistlebowers arrested then later died from the virus.

  26. lizzie @ #68 Monday, March 30th, 2020 – 7:53 am

    I’m still finding it impossible to accept that people believe in the Rapture. I just can’t.

    The only time the church will close is when the Rapture is taking place

    Even more so, I’m sure. If these don’t look like the end times, I don’t know what will. Is there some way we can get those people into their preferred places of worship and keep them in there for a couple of months? Let their god sort them out and the rest of us live with science?

  27. Victoria
    says:
    Monday, March 30, 2020 at 9:03 am
    nath
    China has to answer for a full blown pandemic. That is what.
    ________________________
    So you blame the country where a highly contagious virus originates from? How are you going to enforce your disapproval. Will you take your personal navy to the South China Sea and begin a blockade?

  28. They were interviewing some of the rescued o/s peeps on the teev this morning.

    Apparently the quality of the national response to their needs and wants was not up the customary standards of the ‘me’ generation.

    Now, I am assuming that the selection was made of the newsworthy ones but talk about Virus Whingers!

    They had to pay their own way home; they had to wait for hours; the room was ordinary; the food was ordinary; they were shuffled around like ‘animals’.

    Send the next lot to Nauru for a fortnight. Out of sight, out of mind.

  29. In fairness to China, the true story is that there was a moment of bureaucratic inertia, but once they enacted their plan, they were very efficient. Also China had the disadvantage of being the epicentre. All the had initially was reports of a pneumonia like illness. They had to isolate and characterise and DNA map. If it had happened in Australia, we’d have faced the same problems.

  30. Oh fuck.. The cormanator on Insiders.. That’s why I didn’t listen to it before.. where’s the fast forward..

  31. Mexicanbeemer
    says:
    Monday, March 30, 2020 at 9:04 am
    Nath
    China took its time in alerting international health authorities and it was leaked by Wuhan doctors then the main whistlebower was arrested and later died.
    _____________________________
    Not that surprising in an authoritarian regime. Once the Chinese realised the danger of the virus they shut down entire provinces. Other nations should have taken notice you would think. Blaming nations for pandemics is just stupid xenophobic rubbish that will achieve nothing.

  32. nath

    No. I blame them from hiding it for as long as they did, and allowed 5 million to travel for chinese new year.

    In fact the poor young Chinese doctor who sounded the alarm and died, should be forever honoured. May he RIP

  33. OH and self cut each other’s hair for the best part of three decades. We started when living in a place from where the nearest hair dresser was around 400km away. And it became a habit. Saved us many thousands of dollars over the decades.

    Back to layering class for me!

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