Another three things

A bluffers’ guide to Saturday’s elections in Queensland, plus further items of marginal interest.

No Newspoll this week it seems. News you can use:

• Queensland’s elections on the weekend are covered in extensive and ongoing detail here. To cut a long story short: the state by-elections of Bundamba and Currumbin resulted in victories for the incumbent parties, namely Labor and the Liberal National Party respectively; Adrian Schrinner of the LNP was re-elected as lord mayor of Brisbane; and the LNP have almost certainly retained a healthy majority on Brisbane City Council. In Bundamba, the LNP ran third behind One Nation (and probably shouldn’t have bothered to run), whose presence in the field also took a bite out of the Labor primary vote. Labor did manage to improve their primary vote at the LNP’s expense in Currumbin, where One Nation is a lot weaker, but the latter’s presence means they will get a lower share of the combined preferences and thus fail to bite into the LNP’s existing 3.3% margin. There has been no notional two-party count, but scrutineers’ figures cited by Antony Green suggest Labor received an uncommonly weak 71% share of Greens preferences.

• Roy Morgan’s promise that it would provide further detail on its half-way intriguing findings on trust in political and business leaders (see here and here) has borne disappointing fruit. Rather than provide the trust and distrust scores as most of us would have hoped, a follow-up release offers only blurry impressions as to the specific attributes that caused the various leaders to be trusted or distrusted, in which “honest/genuine” and “integrity/sincerity” were uselessly listed as distinct response options.

• The Tasmanian government has delayed the date for the periodical Legislative Council elections, which this year encompass the seats of Huon and Rosevears, but only from May 2 to May 30. The Tasmanian Electoral Commission says this will give it more time to “ensure electors have access to the voting process and to maintain the integrity of the 2020 Legislative Council elections during the COVID-19 pandemic”, which presumably means a greater emphasis on postal, pre-poll and maybe telephone voting.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,029 comments on “Another three things”

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  1. The PM is talking about “hibernation” now. I do wish that he’d define his terms and stick to them. Patently has no scientific training.

  2. And also Trump who knew early on, did nothing but praised Chinese President.
    So Trump and Xi Xi Ping are beyond culpable.

  3. Victoria
    says:
    Monday, March 30, 2020 at 9:08 am
    nath
    No. I blame them from hiding it for as long as they did, and allowed 5 million to travel for chinese new year.
    In fact the poor young Chinese doctor who sounded the alarm and died, should be forever honoured. May he RIP
    ___________________________
    Indeed. Clearly the Chinese had no idea at that stage what they were dealing with. I’m more concerned with Sinophobes using the virus as a cover for their xenophobic agenda here in Australia. That’s what concerns me.

  4. KayJay

    I’m gloating. I went out and mowed a couple of hours before the rain started yesterday. Gotta watch the radar, mate.

  5. Those winging about their quarantine treatment should be placed in the hull of a cargo plane or on a lilo for return whence they came (as the case may be).

  6. lizzie @ #91 Monday, March 30th, 2020 – 8:05 am

    Is hairdressing an essential service that a person can go out for? Just asking.

    I suspect Smoko & Co have NFI what an essential service is. It would involve too much real world experience and not pandering to special, parochial interests and gaming the system. Their experts just don’t appreciate this.

  7. Victoria
    says:
    Monday, March 30, 2020 at 9:10 am
    And also Trump who knew early on, did nothing but praised Chinese President.
    So Trump and Xi Xi Ping are beyond culpable.
    ____________________
    Oh yes I forgot. It’s Trump, Morrison and Boris who are to blame. I get it!

  8. Boerwar @ #93 Monday, March 30th, 2020 – 8:06 am

    They were interviewing some of the rescued o/s peeps on the teev this morning.

    Apparently the quality of the national response to their needs and wants was not up the customary standards of the ‘me’ generation.

    Now, I am assuming that the selection was made of the newsworthy ones but talk about Virus Whingers!

    They had to pay their own way home; they had to wait for hours; the room was ordinary; the food was ordinary; they were shuffled around like ‘animals’.

    Send the next lot to Nauru for a fortnight. Out of sight, out of mind.

    And those who have no issues and wouldn’t get an outraged reaction would be aired?

  9. Mexicanbeemer @ #102 Monday, March 30th, 2020 – 6:09 am

    Fessy
    Construction isn’t needed to restart essential services.

    It depends on the nature of the outage. Sometimes a construction crew and/or electrical contractors are needed to get power going again. If these contractors have been stood down because of a blanket ban on construction then a power outage could become very problematic.

  10. Nath
    This virus was first reported sometime in November and it wasn’t until January that the Chinese authorities took any serious actions and that was after millions had traveled to and from Wuhan and in January when there was talk of restricting in-bound flights from China they actually complained. For those reasons the Chinese are open to criticism.

  11. I fear that the government’s apparent plan for a wage subsidy is deeply flawed.

    Firstly, like just about everything this government does it will be a minute late and a dollar short.

    I doubt that it will come in immediately, yet employers are shedding jobs immediately.

    Secondly, I don’t trust employers to use it to keep staff on. Employers will use this subsidy to shank employees that are at least partially surplus to requirements.

    Thirdly, the $1500 should be simply directed straight to all citizens that are either (1) not on an existing benefit, (2) not a self funded retiree, or (3) earning under $150K pa. It should be rolled out now.

    For most people this could be facilitated administratively. No need to apply, with contact with the government limited to providing bank account details – if the ATO or Centrelink doesn’t already have these details.

    The interests of business who are keeping staff or contractors on would be accommodated by permitting them to reduce their wage bill for each worker they keep on the books by the same amount as the government payment to that worker.

  12. nath

    Yeah yeah. I gotta bridge to sell.

    It’s high time we wake up to a lot of what is wrong with our current trading system.
    We still have to fix a monumental problem of dodgy panels in most of our newer high rise buildings.
    China doesn’t seem to think it has any responsibility for selling dodgy panels.

    We are now reaping what we have sown.

    Anyhoo that is the last I am going to say on these matters.

  13. lizzie @ #68 Monday, March 30th, 2020 – 8:53 am

    I’m still finding it impossible to accept that people believe in the Rapture. I just can’t.

    The only time the church will close is when the Rapture is taking place

    Oh ye of little faith. Behold and marvel.

    P.S. I do believe the lady in pink is a commando warrior. 👖 – closest I could get. Sorry ❗

  14. BK

    I dont think Trump particularly cares. He is a narcissist. Sorry to be repetitive. I have been saying this for years. Lol!

  15. Like all other countries China can be relied upon to put self interest of its leaders and itself above most things. That is why they shouldn’t necessarily be trust, and why other countries don’t just except everything every other country says as fact.

    Notwithstanding that it was very clear the pandemic was coming, probably while Scotty was on the beach in Hawaii, it is just Trump and others chose to ignore it as long as possible.

  16. Nath
    4 Corners did a program on the situation a few months ago. It went into detail about the timeline of events.

  17. Mexican:

    Yes, but if the industry is shut down, then key workers aren’t available immediately, much less if they’ve been let go by their employer.

    This is one of the reasons why I argued that there are industries (like the construction industry) that should have a case by case approach applied to what is shut down and what isn’t.

  18. Boerwar

    The fact that some are complaining is annoying the crap out of me.
    Were these people paying attention at any stage during the past two months?
    They should have made their way home sooner than this weekend.
    Frankly sick of these self absorbed entitled idiots.

  19. Cud Chewer

    Oh fuck.. The cormanator on Insiders..

    As the Cormannator marketing tagline says “When you have nothing to say.Say it with Cormann”

  20. Victoria
    says:
    Monday, March 30, 2020 at 9:17 am
    nath
    Yeah yeah. I gotta bridge to sell.
    It’s high time we wake up to a lot of what is wrong with our current trading system.
    We still have to fix a monumental problem of dodgy panels in most of our newer high rise buildings.
    China doesn’t seem to think it has any responsibility for selling dodgy panels.
    ____________________________
    Ok I think we are getting closer to the truth here. Blaming the Chinese for ‘dodgy panels’ that Australian authorities approved for use is quite a stretch but firmly in the anti-Chinese arsenal. Those panels are fine for use in single storey houses but were approved by Australian authorities because developers wanted to make more money. Nothing to do with China I’m afraid.

  21. Fess

    Yes I know. Hence why I noted no further discussions will be entered into.
    I got my point across which I have avoided doing over past two months. But now that the pandemic is playing out all over the world. I wanted to say my piece.

  22. Fessy
    They will be available because any industry wide shut down is likely to see those workers retained under the governments wage subsidy so if that is the case then they will be sitting at home waiting for the foreman or boss to call them to work.

  23. Victoria @ #118 Monday, March 30th, 2020 – 8:17 am

    nath

    Yeah yeah. I gotta bridge to sell.

    It’s high time we wake up to a lot of what is wrong with our current trading system.
    We still have to fix a monumental problem of dodgy panels in most of our newer high rise buildings.
    China doesn’t seem to think it has any responsibility for selling dodgy panels.

    We are now reaping what we have sown.

    Anyhoo that is the last I am going to say on these matters.

    Hmmm, reminds me of those dodgy glass external panels on high rise buildings in the 90s which would disintegrate unexpectedly and shower shards of glass below. Dodgy source? Merica.

  24. It’s Time
    says:
    Hmmm, reminds me of those dodgy glass external panels on high rise buildings in the 90s which would disintegrate unexpectedly and shower shards of glass below. Dodgy source? Merica.
    _________________________
    Funny how people blame the country of origin rather than builders and developers here for using those products. But then again, if my family was in the construction business I might want to blame someone else too.

  25. I have some sympathy with those stuck in quarantine in hotels.

    Take the Swissotel in Market St – a bigger 5Star shithole you wouldn’t find, made the mistake once of staying of a ‘5 star mystery hotel weekend’ with Mrs Sprocket; no parking, windows don’t open, tiny rooms, indolent reception … we stayed one night and did a runner.

    So the luck=k of the draw, with some having Quest Apartments, and others in dumps.

  26. Its possible that individual tradies would still be working on small jobs because the transaction is between the tradie and customer within a private setting.

  27. Shopping report
    I went down to my local Coles for the Pensioner hour this morning.
    Very quiet. Shelves fairly well stocked. Even toilet paper and tissues available.

    The checkout staff will no longer pack your bags which was a pain for little me to have handle everything about 3 times to get it into bags. Also really pushing tap and go. Otherwise very pleased

  28. Sprocket

    These people could have made their way home sooner and they would have then had the benefit of self isolating in their own home.
    No sympathy from me.

  29. All those Rapture peeps in that image are slender.
    I take it that those pictured are a representative sample of who gets the Rapture and who does not. The morbidly obese don’t get to Rapture.
    But looking at images of Rapture Church congregations, obesity seems to be the gold standard for entry to the Anointed.
    Comrades, it’s a truc.

  30. Did Morrison mention Stage 3 or is the word verboten?

    The Premier has revealed 56 new cases of coronavirus were confirmed in Victoria overnight, bringing the state’s total to 821.

    He said the message for Monday was simple, following Prime Minister Scott Morrison’s advice on Sunday night: “Stay at home.”

    “Victoria has moved to stage three and that involves a ban with an on the spot fine of more than $1600 if you breach it, on gatherings with more than two people, other than those in your household. This is critically important,” Mr Andrews said.

  31. ‘laughtong says:
    Monday, March 30, 2020 at 9:28 am

    Shopping report
    I went down to my local Coles for the Pensioner hour this morning.
    Very quiet. Shelves fairly well stocked. Even toilet paper and tissues available.

    The checkout staff will no longer pack your bags which was a pain for little me to have handle everything about 3 times to get it into bags.’

    We all have our travails during the Siege of The Virus.

  32. New Yorkers shocked as they watch coronavirus medical tents go up in Central Park

    Residents of New York were shocked to look out their windows and see white tents going up in the north meadow of Central Park in New York on Sunday.

    “Not sure if I find this more reassuring than terrifying,” New York Times reporter Katie Rosman confessed on Twitter.

    This buildout is apparently an exact replica of an emergency field hospital that Samaritan’s Purse opened on March 20 in northern Italy,” New York One reported.

    https://www.rawstory.com/2020/03/new-yorkers-shocked-as-they-watch-coronavirus-medical-tents-go-up-in-central-park/

  33. nath

    A bit like the tower fire in the UK. There was a lot of screaming about the menace of using panels. If you went to the company that made the sort used in the tower there were 3 grades and had clearly specified height limits for the buildings they were to be used on. The more expensive ones of course were for use up at higher levels. So greedy arse “business community” builders trying to make more money rather than crap ‘foreign’ panels that seemed to get a lot of blame.

  34. Mexicanbeemer @ #116 Monday, March 30th, 2020 – 8:16 am

    Nath
    This virus was first reported sometime in November and it wasn’t until January that the Chinese authorities took any serious actions and that was after millions had traveled to and from Wuhan and in January when there was talk of restricting in-bound flights from China they actually complained. For those reasons the Chinese are open to criticism.

    In the middle of flu season, some patient appears to have a somewhat different form of pneumonia. How long does it take to see enough cases to recognise that this may be something novel rather than a unique case? How long does it take to identify that it is an infectious viral disease? Even today the distinctions between coronavirus, flu and a cold are blurry.

    Do you think that Australia or US would have done much better?

  35. I think we all have to understand that looking at history, no matter how recent, allows us to wear rose tinted glasses.
    In December people in China started getting sick, not many with Flu like symptoms. What did China do? What would Australia have done in the same situation. Answer: Nothing much, academics might make a note that something may be going on but not enough impact to alert the bureaucracy.
    By January a lot more people started getting sick in one location but again, enough for regional bureaucrats to start investigating, but no alarms or alerts just yet. Nothing is proven, it might be nothing, another outbreak of SARS or “maybe” something new. What would Australia or the US do that China didn’t? Answer, both Australia and US, as evidenced by the fact that even in the full knowledge of what was coming both Governments did 2/5th of SFA until March ANYWAY.
    So now we get to the End of January, China now knows something is happening and it’s probably going to be serious, the rest of the world learn about it, the Diamond Princess sails off on it’s Lunar New Year Cruise. What could China do? What does any government do when there are millions of ADDITIONAL people travelling from place to place during one of the biggest yearly festivals? Keeping in mind the Lunar New Year cruise was 10 days, on day three one passenger was disembarked in Hong Kong with an unidentified illness, the ship continued to Vietnam who at that time didn’t do anything.
    Three days later and now it’s the first week of February, the ship arrives in Taiwan, the passengers were forced to wear masks while out on excursion but that was it.
    Three days later the ship arrives in Japan and was Quarantined. China started locking everything down in Wuhan with a speed and brutality that is not possible in most other nations. Now the entire world knows it’s a Novel virus and is dangerous but it’s in China so not viewed as a priority.
    What does Australia or the US do in February now that we know this? Absolutely NOTHING which will mitigate its impact on us. NOTHING AT ALL. While China was locking down the Epicentre and Chinese companies where shipping medical supplies from the US, Europe and Australia BACK to China we did NOTHING.
    To now say “China should have acted earlier”, on what possible basis, given our country and other first world nations did nothing should China somehow have acted earlier. What magical looking glass does China have that we don’t that allows them to see the future?
    FFS People I can post a scientific paper from 2007 which predicts the next major pandemic will be a corona virus originating from horseshoe bats starting in a wet market in Wuhan China with various options that China and the rest of the world can take to deal with it. Singapore took notice and had a plan in place, we did not.
    We were warned years in advance and did nothing, we were warned weeks in advance and our government was still telling people to go to the bloody football three weeks ago.

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