Another three things

A bluffers’ guide to Saturday’s elections in Queensland, plus further items of marginal interest.

No Newspoll this week it seems. News you can use:

• Queensland’s elections on the weekend are covered in extensive and ongoing detail here. To cut a long story short: the state by-elections of Bundamba and Currumbin resulted in victories for the incumbent parties, namely Labor and the Liberal National Party respectively; Adrian Schrinner of the LNP was re-elected as lord mayor of Brisbane; and the LNP have almost certainly retained a healthy majority on Brisbane City Council. In Bundamba, the LNP ran third behind One Nation (and probably shouldn’t have bothered to run), whose presence in the field also took a bite out of the Labor primary vote. Labor did manage to improve their primary vote at the LNP’s expense in Currumbin, where One Nation is a lot weaker, but the latter’s presence means they will get a lower share of the combined preferences and thus fail to bite into the LNP’s existing 3.3% margin. There has been no notional two-party count, but scrutineers’ figures cited by Antony Green suggest Labor received an uncommonly weak 71% share of Greens preferences.

• Roy Morgan’s promise that it would provide further detail on its half-way intriguing findings on trust in political and business leaders (see here and here) has borne disappointing fruit. Rather than provide the trust and distrust scores as most of us would have hoped, a follow-up release offers only blurry impressions as to the specific attributes that caused the various leaders to be trusted or distrusted, in which “honest/genuine” and “integrity/sincerity” were uselessly listed as distinct response options.

• The Tasmanian government has delayed the date for the periodical Legislative Council elections, which this year encompass the seats of Huon and Rosevears, but only from May 2 to May 30. The Tasmanian Electoral Commission says this will give it more time to “ensure electors have access to the voting process and to maintain the integrity of the 2020 Legislative Council elections during the COVID-19 pandemic”, which presumably means a greater emphasis on postal, pre-poll and maybe telephone voting.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,029 comments on “Another three things”

  1. Mexicanbeemer

    If, as seems likely, Morrison has been reluctant to move on anything at all, he is being dragged along by the states and presumable some of his cabinet. Perhaps this is why we are getting so much fluff about being Australian and not clear detail about actions. He’s marketing something he doesn’t really believe in so he’s resorting to patriotism.

  2. Victoria & Lizzie
    NSW vehicles must be inspected for road worthiness each year before their registration is renewed

    It’s a rort to keep mechanics in business & rego is 2X more expensive unless it’s a box trailer which costs $219 to register in NSW
    $29 to register in Vic or free for small trailer

  3. Mexicanbeemer

    I sensed there was a bit of tension at the press conference between ScoMo and Josh and that tweet might explain why.

    What do you speculate is the division over ? Scrott wanting to be Super Santa and Josh being Scrooge or t’other way round ?

  4. If an employer claims the job keeper payment on behalf of their employees. The payment will be assigned to the employee against their tax file number.
    I cant see how the employer can claim it and keep it for themselves.

  5. Re Sally McManus and Greg Combes being the architects of the subsidy scheme.

    Perhaps that is the case and they pushed the idea but it would be very surprising if they presented to the government a scheme designed to exclude casuals who have been employed for less than 12 months,those who were on short term contracts before being laid off and a number of other issues re visa holders.

    See how it unfolds.

  6. Dr. Dena Grayson
    @DrDenaGrayson
    ·
    7h
    Warning signOn 1/20, the 1st #COVID19 case was confirmed in the US and #SouthKorea.

    2 days later, Trump bragged: “We have it totally under control. It’s 1 person coming from #China. It’s going to be just fine.”

    Korea launched a #coronavirus test within 1 week.Collision symbol

    The missing six weeks: how Trump failed the biggest test of his life
    The president was aware of the danger from the coronavirus – but a lack of leadership has created an emergency of epic proportions
    theguardian.com
    29
    523
    866

  7. Isaac Stone Fish
    @isaacstonefish
    No big deal, just Wuhan residents estimating that 46,800 people in their city died from the virus, instead of the government’s figure of roughly 2,500 people.

    Estimates Show Wuhan Death Toll Far Higher Than Official Figure
    Based on cremation figures, Wuhan residents estimate more than 40,000 have died, compared with an official toll of 2,535.
    rfa.org

  8. Dr. Dana
    @PhDnotMD
    ·
    14m
    Trump just said that they’ve been HOLDING BACK 10,000 ventilators, and he will send some to Michigan, Alabama, “New York is doing OK, but we’ll send some more.” What!?

  9. Victoria @ #999 Tuesday, March 31st, 2020 – 8:08 am

    I had a good chuckle when Morrison announced the job keeper policy yesterday.
    Who would have ever thought he would be leading a govt announcing such a policy.

    Of course, we will be paying for it for years to come.
    Will it be a higher GST?

    as the comment earlier quoted

    from Twitter

    Mike Carlton
    @MikeCarlton01
    ·
    29s
    I’m told that Greg Combet was the architect of the Jobkeeper Plan, with Sally McManus. They sold it to Christian Porter and Treasury. Morrison took a lot of convincing, but eventually got on board. This is leadership and national unity of a high order from all concerned.

    MIAMUB

  10. I like to think that Morrison dropped the casuals off the Jobseeker plan, knowing MIAMUB, but we may never know. It fits the profiles of the people concerned. And Combet can only present ideas, the government is the decision maker.

    but maybe I am being partisan.

  11. Dandy Murray says:
    Monday, March 30, 2020 at 11:28 pm

    Buce,

    ADF personnel on field training and deployment do significantly more than 13 hour days for 5 straight.

    Even shiney-bummed academics facing major conference deadlines do more hours than that for a week beforehand. It’s a mixed blessing that all the conferences have been canned.
    ————————————————–

    Yes. And you miss the point entirely by focussing on the hours.

    You or they don’t face the uncertain possibility of contracting a deadly disease that will kill them within days, every time they go to work.

  12. Oakeshott Country @ #855 Monday, March 30th, 2020 – 9:56 pm

    The place for the station is obviously North Wyong opposite the Golf club. Tuggerah is at the end of a peak hour car park called Wyong Road. No one in their tight mind would go there to commute to Sydney

    Many hundreds do, every normal (non-virus) day.

    Victoria @ #986 Tuesday, March 31st, 2020 – 8:27 am

    Lizzie

    I don’t know what type of inspection that tweet is referring to. Does it relate to roadworthiness of car?

    Yes. Mandatory in NSW. Basically pointless. Licensed mechanic checks your lights work, that tyres aren’t bald, and fakes a brake test for $36 to $42 a pop, depending on greed level. Takes about five minutes. A rort.

  13. This is NOT the time for a Narcissist to be the leader of the Free World!

    Scott Dworkin
    @funder
    ·
    Mar 30
    BREAKING: Trump just admitted he refuses to call Governors of states he doesn’t like. He has Pence or others call instead. Americans are dying. And he’s acting like a toddler.

  14. Victoria @ #1012 Tuesday, March 31st, 2020 – 9:04 am

    Isaac Stone Fish
    @isaacstonefish
    No big deal, just Wuhan residents estimating that 46,800 people in their city died from the virus, instead of the government’s figure of roughly 2,500 people.

    Estimates Show Wuhan Death Toll Far Higher Than Official Figure
    Based on cremation figures, Wuhan residents estimate more than 40,000 have died, compared with an official toll of 2,535.
    rfa.org

    For the same reason as North Korea and Russia’s figures have been very low, thus far. It reflects badly on Dear Leader for them to be off the charts. Though I notice that Russia has finally had to come clean today, to a certain extent. The spy satellites must be picking up the people running around in Hazmat gear all over the place.

  15. On the Wuhan death figures – Hubei province could expect around 30,000 deaths in a normal three month period. COVID-19 is strongly suspected of lifting death rates even among those not diagnosed.

    There’s no reason to indulge in conspiracy theories – all figures for the pandemic need to be considered against the background. In China that’s a 0.7 per cent annual death rate (all causes) – so a pandemic 1% would more than double that.

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