Another three things

A bluffers’ guide to Saturday’s elections in Queensland, plus further items of marginal interest.

No Newspoll this week it seems. News you can use:

• Queensland’s elections on the weekend are covered in extensive and ongoing detail here. To cut a long story short: the state by-elections of Bundamba and Currumbin resulted in victories for the incumbent parties, namely Labor and the Liberal National Party respectively; Adrian Schrinner of the LNP was re-elected as lord mayor of Brisbane; and the LNP have almost certainly retained a healthy majority on Brisbane City Council. In Bundamba, the LNP ran third behind One Nation (and probably shouldn’t have bothered to run), whose presence in the field also took a bite out of the Labor primary vote. Labor did manage to improve their primary vote at the LNP’s expense in Currumbin, where One Nation is a lot weaker, but the latter’s presence means they will get a lower share of the combined preferences and thus fail to bite into the LNP’s existing 3.3% margin. There has been no notional two-party count, but scrutineers’ figures cited by Antony Green suggest Labor received an uncommonly weak 71% share of Greens preferences.

• Roy Morgan’s promise that it would provide further detail on its half-way intriguing findings on trust in political and business leaders (see here and here) has borne disappointing fruit. Rather than provide the trust and distrust scores as most of us would have hoped, a follow-up release offers only blurry impressions as to the specific attributes that caused the various leaders to be trusted or distrusted, in which “honest/genuine” and “integrity/sincerity” were uselessly listed as distinct response options.

• The Tasmanian government has delayed the date for the periodical Legislative Council elections, which this year encompass the seats of Huon and Rosevears, but only from May 2 to May 30. The Tasmanian Electoral Commission says this will give it more time to “ensure electors have access to the voting process and to maintain the integrity of the 2020 Legislative Council elections during the COVID-19 pandemic”, which presumably means a greater emphasis on postal, pre-poll and maybe telephone voting.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,029 comments on “Another three things”

  1. NathanA @ #816 Monday, March 30th, 2020 – 8:45 pm

    DM

    Thanks for the reply. Yes, that’s possible. It’s hard to tell from a graph how well the health authorities are chasing these issues up, but they seem to be getting a lot of things right to me.

    NathanA

    The Wagga Daily Advertiser is reporting that the 5 cases in Wagga as being “diagnosed after travelling overseas or being in contact with a confirmed case.”

  2. The place for the station is obviously North Wyong opposite the Golf club. Tuggerah is at the end of a peak hour car park called Wyong Road. No one in their tight mind would go there to commute to Sydney

  3. OC

    There are currently 35 cases in the Northern NSW LHD, 33 are overseas travellers of which 25 are from cruise ships. The other 2 are close contacts.

    How many more people in NSW are infected and undiagnosed? Hint: you don’t know. We can’t know. You can argue that if there were more undiagnosed cases there would be more people showing up with severe enough symptoms to end up in hospital and push through the cracks in the testing wall.

    But that simply ignores that there is a pipeline of infections. Many are still waiting to progress to “sick enough to show up at a hospital”. But that still leaves out most people who will either not be fully aware they are infected or won’t be sick enough to get to hospital/testing.

    So, I’m very sorry but I do not trust the spin.

    What I can say is this. Yes, within the actual official stats, most are overseas related. A smaller subset are cases that slipped through the cracks in the testing wall and even given that filter, this group of cases of unknown origin is itself growing exponentially. It does not represent the bulk of the 4,203 “official” cases, but it certainly is growing exponentially and it certain represents the tip of an iceberg.

    In any case, you can apply all the fudge factors you want. Whether we have “only” a few hundred undiagnosed cases, or a few thousands, the exponential nature of growth will ensure that we get to that 45,000 mark in only 4-6 doubling periods.

    OC I’m begging you to understand. We do not have visibility into the pool of real infections in the community. We know its there. We know its growing. We cannot simply continue to wait until people are seriously sick and only then calling their GP and then ending up in hospital and only then showing up in the official stats. By then there is a huge pipeline.

    We MUST increase our rate of testing many, many times. Got it? We’re just not going to have any control without that.

  4. WTF is Josh Pyke going to bring to that discussion? Give everyone an update on the lack of liquidity in the bong market right now…fml

    Also, someone better ask Matt Comyn about all the dodgy lending the CBA’s been doing. Don’t take your eye of the spiv’s for even a second!

    I suspect the COVID thing will be smaller than people here think. Maybe < 10K serious issues, But once were out of isolation, no one will be getting off island Australia for about 12-18 months. And that will be the real pain. No import tourism will hurt a lot.

  5. Ballantyne

    NSW Health records at least one case in Wagga of unknown source, which happens to be a friend of a friend. Maybe they found the contact earlier today?

  6. The place for the station is obviously North Wyong opposite the Golf club. Tuggerah is at the end of a peak hour car park called Wyong Road. No one in their tight mind would go there to commute to Sydney

    The HSR main line cannot go through North Wyong for reasons I would have thought were obvious.

    I’m not asking people to drive to the HSR station. I’m asking them to drive to a location where they can get an express bus to the HSR station. Well implemented this will actually reduce congestion.

  7. “NSW Health records at least one case in Wagga of unknown source, which happens to be a friend of a friend. Maybe they found the contact earlier today?”

    NathanA

    If I may ask. How sick was this person and who decided that he/she met the criteria for testing?

  8. south
    says:
    I suspect the COVID thing will be smaller than people here think. Maybe < 10K serious issues, But once were out of isolation, no one will be getting off island Australia for about 12-18 months. And that will be the real pain. No import tourism will hurt a lot.
    ________________________
    Australia needs to restore it's economic relationship with China asap. Seeing that China has a good handle on the outbreak there is no reason that open borders between Australia and China cannot return fairly quickly. For our sake let's hope it does.

  9. Regarding our Corona ‘Cordon sanitaire’, I’ve been a shy fan of wearing face masks since living in Japan many years ago. And so I started wearing one recently when leaving Portugal and on our flight home, convincing my travel companions to do the same..especially as one was recovering from a cold. However , since arriving back, even my nursing friends here are critical, saying they don’t stop the virus, should only be worn for 3 hours , etc., and yet to me it makes sense.
    And this article reinforces my concern:
    https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/03/not-wearing-masks-protect-against-coronavirus-big-mistake-top-chinese-scientist-says

    So my question is, could this be just cultural? That this anti-facemask attitude is possibly because it is seen as an Asian habit? Not unlike the attitude to the wearing of a hijab/niqab. which I also think has merit at times, especially with my very fair skin in this sunny climate?
    My daughter is a nurse and has made plans to live away from my grandchildren and because she has a rare autoimmune condition, I am really concerned for her and so discussed the regular wearing of facemasks .
    But…. what do I know? I’m only a parent.

  10. But IT MUST have a station near the Old Pacific Highway at Wyong – that is the main through route for people on the Munmorah and all of south east Lake Macquarie. It is also easy access for the growth centres of Kangy Angy and Wyee

  11. Nath
    Australia is still doing business with China and the relationship will continue as it was before. The closing of borders was about this virus and China understands that.

  12. CC

    Don’t know, it was only that the friend’s mother had been in contact with them and had found out yesterday so they were asking some questions to the wife while I looked after the little one.

  13. nath says:
    Monday, March 30, 2020 at 7:44 pm

    NY ICU nurses doing 5 13 hour shifts in a row. A day in the life:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bnvyKknwZkQ
    ————————————————————–

    I hope when this is over that the government strikes a special medal to be awarded to all front-line health workers who are putting themselves “in harms way.” Their contribution to protecting us in this crisis is at least the equal of our defence forces who are awarded medals for considerably less.

    And they should cap this with a pledge to pay them adequately and provide them with the necessary equipment and facilities to do their job .

  14. beguiledagain
    says:
    And they should cap this with a pledge to pay them adequately and provide them with the necessary equipment and facilities to do their job .
    ________________
    Kind of makes me think about HSU Union bosses Craig Thompson and Michael Williamson who stole millions from nurses and allied health workers.

  15. PeeBee:

    The only time I use cash is to contribute to the office lotto and to chip in for collections around work (farewells, babies, charity runs etc). Otherwise it’s tap and go or eftpos.

  16. But IT MUST have a station near the Old Pacific Highway at Wyong – that is the main through route for people on the Munmorah and all of south east Lake Macquarie. It is also easy access for the growth centres of Kangy Angy and Wyee

    Not physically possible. If it were, I’d have a HSR/conventional interchange at Tuggerah.

    As for access from these other locations, let me go through them.

    * Wyong and Tuggerah. If you drive to the HSR station it will take you about 3-7 minutes typically. You also have a direct Wyong/Tuggerah/Tuggerah HSR bus route. You’re quite well served.

    * Hamlyn Terrace, Gorokan, Lakehaven, Noraville. If you’re driving it is optimal at most times to take Sparks Road/M1. Typical time from Gorokan is 20 minutes. However the bus route out of Gorokan is more likely to be routed via Wyong, except perhaps the peak services out of Norah Head.

    * Blue haven, San Remo, Bluff Point, Lake Munmorah etc. The optimal path at most times is via the M1 link road. Its also quite likely that majority of your bus services will be routed via the link road, at least in peak.

    Its the same story for Wyee. However if you go any further north you’re far more likely to choose a high speed train service departing from Morisset (existing) station.

  17. Confessions

    I love the clever marketing of all these new payments. Just to make sure we continue to think of Newstart recipients as a special class of undeserving.

  18. CC
    But wont people on newstart now be receiving the so called job seeker payment. If anyone is being snubbed its the disabled with two special payments.

  19. Confessions

    How does this government always over-complicate things?

    Because the more complicated it is the more opportunities there is for slipping in nasty little details or deals for maaates and less chance the great unwashed will notice.

  20. Beemer

    Yeah but the Jobseeker topup is designed to go away, leaving present Newstart recipients where they were. I agree that DSP pension recipients have been snubbed.

  21. yabba

    Many hundreds do, every normal (non-virus) day.

    Precisely. A large part of the reason why the western end of Wyong Road near the M1 is so busy is because it dumps tens of thousands of vehicles onto the M1 and most of those are headed south of the Hawkesbury.

  22. “Don’t forget, 24 New Zealanders were pulled off the private charter from Peru to Sydney because the Australian Government refused to let them transit.
    2:04 PM · Mar 30, 2020·Twitter Web App
    395
    Retweets
    846
    Likes
    Droplet
    Charlie Caruso
    Kangaroo
    @CharliCaruso
    ·
    8h
    Replying to
    @CharliCaruso
    “due to sudden issues with transiting in Sydney, we have had to remove all New Zealanders from the repatriation flight. It’s been a hard day for me personally to deliver that message to the New Zealanders we had onboard.” I can’t imagine how hard that call would have been to make
    Droplet
    Charlie Caruso
    Kangaroo
    @CharliCaruso
    ·
    8h
    And had @chimuadventures
    not organised that flight, 353 Australians would still be #stuckinPeru . Instead, $1.6M worth of tickets later, ~100 Aussies remain. Commercial flights will be available from the 1st of May. No travel insurance, no income, no assistance from the Gov.
    Droplet
    Charlie Caruso
    Kangaroo
    @CharliCaruso
    ·
    5h
    100 Aussies & the New Zealander’s unable to board the Chimu charter bc of not being able to transit are still #stuckinPeru . The
    Flag of Australia
    gov have “said” they are reviewing options but as of yet, noone currently stuck in Peru have heard any concrete plans. Today is day 15 of lockdown
    Droplet
    Charlie Caruso
    Kangaroo
    @CharliCaruso
    ·
    5h
    & just in case there is confusion, the New Zealander’s weren’t physically pulled off the flight, their names were pulled off the manifest the day before the flight was set to leave bc they didn’t have permission to transit in Sydney. They & ~100 other
    Flag of Australia
    NS are still #stuckinPeru

  23. CC
    That might be the plan but i doubt they will be able to roll it back in six months which makes the snubbing of the disabled worst if that was possible.

  24. 5:53 am: Boris Johnson’s senior advisor Dominic Cummings has coronavirus symptoms

    U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s senior adviser, Dominic Cummings, has symptoms of coronavirus and is self-isolating at home, Sky News said Monday.

    He started developing symptoms over the weekend and will be staying in contact with the rest of the Downing Street team during his quarantine period, No 10 has confirmed, Sky reported.

    Boris Johnson and his health minister, Matt Hancock, have already tested positive for the virus. — Holly Ellyatt

  25. Cud – not knowing cuts both ways. Maybe we’re at 90% of the world’s population infected and hardly anyone shows any symptoms.

  26. Vogon Poet @ #697 Monday, March 30th, 2020 – 3:41 pm

    What happens to all the workers that worked for business’ that have been forced to close down by the government ?
    Get paid for not showing up ?

    What happens to all the casuals who technically aren’t employed by the lies of Woolies, etc., but are in fact employed by labour hire firms? Who gets the subsidy, Woolies or the labour hire forms? Does it get given to Woolies who then have to pass it onto the hire firms?

    What a bloody mess.

  27. NathanA @ #860 Monday, March 30th, 2020 – 10:02 pm

    Ballantyne

    NSW Health records at least one case in Wagga of unknown source, which happens to be a friend of a friend. Maybe they found the contact earlier today?

    You could be right. I’m afraid the reason reported in the paper has been the same each time a case is recorded, as if by rote.

  28. beguiledagain

    ADF personnel on field training and deployment do significantly more than 13 hour days for 5 straight. I have fallen asleep while standing up in a moving vehicle after having less than an hour of sleep per night for 3 days straight. When I worked FIFO in construction we did +13 hour shifts 13 days straight, a day off and then back into it – I used to do 6 weeks on and 2 weeks off on that work rate.

  29. DP
    That is a good point because whilst they are employed by the employer but they are working on behalf of the recruitment agent.

  30. Danama Papers @ #892 Monday, March 30th, 2020 – 8:14 pm

    Vogon Poet @ #697 Monday, March 30th, 2020 – 3:41 pm

    What happens to all the workers that worked for business’ that have been forced to close down by the government ?
    Get paid for not showing up ?

    What happens to all the casuals who technically aren’t employed by the lies of Woolies, etc., but are in fact employed by labour hire firms? Who gets the subsidy, Woolies or the labour hire forms? Does it get given to Woolies who then have to pass it onto the hire firms?

    What a bloody mess.

    The labour hire firms are the employers.

    Woolies pay them and they then pay the workers.

  31. Buce,

    ADF personnel on field training and deployment do significantly more than 13 hour days for 5 straight.

    Even shiney-bummed academics facing major conference deadlines do more hours than that for a week beforehand. It’s a mixed blessing that all the conferences have been canned.

  32. “Cud Chewersays:
    Monday, March 30, 2020 at 11:22 pm
    Blobbit

    Do ya feel lucky? Well do ya, punk?”

    Not overly. All this is awful. A lot of people are going to suffer.

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