Another three things

A bluffers’ guide to Saturday’s elections in Queensland, plus further items of marginal interest.

No Newspoll this week it seems. News you can use:

• Queensland’s elections on the weekend are covered in extensive and ongoing detail here. To cut a long story short: the state by-elections of Bundamba and Currumbin resulted in victories for the incumbent parties, namely Labor and the Liberal National Party respectively; Adrian Schrinner of the LNP was re-elected as lord mayor of Brisbane; and the LNP have almost certainly retained a healthy majority on Brisbane City Council. In Bundamba, the LNP ran third behind One Nation (and probably shouldn’t have bothered to run), whose presence in the field also took a bite out of the Labor primary vote. Labor did manage to improve their primary vote at the LNP’s expense in Currumbin, where One Nation is a lot weaker, but the latter’s presence means they will get a lower share of the combined preferences and thus fail to bite into the LNP’s existing 3.3% margin. There has been no notional two-party count, but scrutineers’ figures cited by Antony Green suggest Labor received an uncommonly weak 71% share of Greens preferences.

• Roy Morgan’s promise that it would provide further detail on its half-way intriguing findings on trust in political and business leaders (see here and here) has borne disappointing fruit. Rather than provide the trust and distrust scores as most of us would have hoped, a follow-up release offers only blurry impressions as to the specific attributes that caused the various leaders to be trusted or distrusted, in which “honest/genuine” and “integrity/sincerity” were uselessly listed as distinct response options.

• The Tasmanian government has delayed the date for the periodical Legislative Council elections, which this year encompass the seats of Huon and Rosevears, but only from May 2 to May 30. The Tasmanian Electoral Commission says this will give it more time to “ensure electors have access to the voting process and to maintain the integrity of the 2020 Legislative Council elections during the COVID-19 pandemic”, which presumably means a greater emphasis on postal, pre-poll and maybe telephone voting.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,029 comments on “Another three things”

  1. This should be fun. Imagine having a quiet family party on the beach and…

    Or some secluded time in the dunes with your nearest and dearest…

  2. “briefly says:
    Monday, March 30, 2020 at 5:40 pm
    Morrison is promising to have weekly meetings with Albo. Very good.”

    He has resisted this until now. What changed his mind?

    It could be useful so long as Morrison doesn’t regard having a weekly meeting as an opportunity to shift any blame onto Labor when things go wrong.

  3. What is the difference between thecurrent pox and Shakespeare’s Merchant of Venice?

    One’s a Corona Virus. the other is a Verona crisis.

  4. Blobbit @ #652 Monday, March 30th, 2020 – 5:03 pm

    So, do all those cruise ship cases get dumped into the WA numbers?

    They’ll look grim if that’s the case

    Only residents count.

    Note that under National Notifiable Diseases Surveillance System reporting requirements, cases are reported based on their Australian jurisdiction of residence rather than where they were detected. For example, a case reported previously in the NT in a NSW resident is counted in the national figures as a NSW case.

    https://www.health.gov.au/news/health-alerts/novel-coronavirus-2019-ncov-health-alert/coronavirus-covid-19-current-situation-and-case-numbers

  5. Those people who are in quarantine who complain they being treated worse than prisoners should try escaping to see who prisoners are really treated like.

  6. Rex Douglas @ #622 Monday, March 30th, 2020 – 5:26 pm

    Right wing Lib-Lab trickle downers will make the worker pay dearly in future budgets for this.

    Then again maybe the Greens party might offer a different policy approach to Lib-Labs future austerity budgets …?

    ‘Right wing Lib-Lab trickle downers will make the worker pay dearly in future budgets for this.’
    Yep.
    And somehow it will become Labor’s fault.
    And Labor will retreat into it’s shell.

  7. “Late Riser
    There was an article this past week about police in the UK being chastised for unfairly shaming people by posting videos of them going for walks in the countryside with their dogs. It’s interesting that it is being tried here. I wonder who gets to fly the drones. Who records the video. Where the recordings are stored. What security is applied to the recordings. etc.”

    I expect the videos will be sold to the tabloid TV networks and compiled into one of those horrible “police reality” series.

  8. So a number of States, Tas, WA, QLD + NT have implemented draconian laws that anyone, including residents, entering the state has to go into 14 days isolation – and in some cases like Tassie and WA, into a hotel at Her Majesty’s pleasure.

    So who is putting their hand up to fly to Canberra to approve Morrison’s valedictory?

  9. Peter Hartcher just said that the worker payments was at least a month too late and could have saved all the unemployment (and stress). He also said the billions are about 30% GDP and Germany is giving 60%.

  10. EGT @4:59

    True, but the question in your case is whether or not you have serious illness, not whether or not it is COVID19. You may or may not need a COVID19 test, but you do need a diagnosis, and your GP (or some doctor) needs to provide that.

    How can your doctor provide you with an accurate diagnosis if he suspects covid19 and he cannot get you tested because of the rules?

  11. B.S. Fairman

    Those people who are in quarantine who complain they being treated worse than prisoners should try escaping to see who prisoners are really treated like.

    Easy fix, just improve their conditions and treatment by sending them to prison.

  12. You would be wrong, discuss with nuance as oppossed to this pathetic little anyone I do not like is part of the lib-lab world.

    Start with being positive to others, times like these call for it. The aggression and anger from you on this blog is immature

  13. Why would a business owner…

    Many business owners don’t want to be firing their staff. Most will know that this is a temporary – if potentially drawn out – situation and they would want to be able to come out the other side without losing their employees, and without making their employees suffer.

    There are bastards out there, of course, but most would take any opportunity to get through this with their business and their workforce intact, and if this measure allows them to make the sums add up to get them by for the next 6/12/18 months, then that’s a good thing.

  14. Scout @ #676 Monday, March 30th, 2020 – 6:22 pm

    You would be wrong, discuss with nuance as oppossed to this pathetic little anyone I do not like is part of the lib-lab world.

    Start with being positive to others, times like these call for it. The aggression and anger from you on this blog is immature

    Except you’re the one being aggressive to me…

  15. Scout @ #676 Monday, March 30th, 2020 – 3:22 pm

    You would be wrong, discuss with nuance as oppossed to this pathetic little anyone I do not like is part of the lib-lab world.

    Start with being positive to others, times like these call for it. The aggression and anger from you on this blog is immature

    Is Rex being Rex? 🙂

  16. All leaders seem to get a boost in the early stages of any crisis with the appearance of doing something rather than nothing. I seem to remember the Queensland Premier having sky-high ratings after some floods and then lost the next election regardless. Bush the Jnr. same….sky high ratings after 9/11…
    The elections are still two years away, about the time the cost of this cash-splash will be being spread over the whole economy………………………..We will not hear too much about “balanced budgets” and “surpluses” for a long time………
    Back in the day, Labor did an outstanding job in Darwin’s devastation during Gough’s tenure……People have very short memories and even shorter periods of gratitude………..

  17. By 2022 Smoko will be the hero that saved Australia and will win in a landslide.Watch this space.There is no doubt he will be as popular as Boris.

  18. I don’t want to rain on Morrison’s parade, but:

    Most programs of $130b go through a level of stakeholder consultation, modelling, committee scrutiny and debate to pick up the flaws and unintended consequences.

    Not this record cash splash.

    The underlying principles include valid data sets – not what Morrison’s mates tell him – and the good intentions, the Australian mateship, all too evident in Australian Business. Let’s take an example:

    The NRL (or AFL) stands down 100 staff – earning between $50k and $200k per year. Use your rec leave pal, is the HR advice.

    Revenue last year – motza
    Revenue this year – zilch

    They qualify, so 100 employees stood down earning between $2k and $7.5k per fortnight. No revenue in sight.

    Along comes Santa ScoMo with $1,500 per fortnight each. What do you do?

    Reemploy at full prior rate? Still no revenue.

    Reemploy at Scomo rate? Employment contract hurdles to overcome.

  19. Here’s my graphs for the day

    Doubling

    Days since 20 cases were recorded. Semi-log and linear for those who want to get extra scared.
    Starting look like an improvement

  20. The whole wage subsidy thing is a mess.

    It would have been easier to simply require employers to keep their employees as employees – officially on unpaid leave – and then compensate the employees directly with an income. Rather than have a messy system of wage subsidies.

  21. Blobbit

    Should we reach the point where new cases are not exponential but merely linear we will need to answer the question of whether the official stats have any relationship to real infection rates. Hence, more testing.

  22. sprocket_

    Hartcher: they bungled it and this is weeks too late.

    It was admitted that this has been stitched together too fast. Bound to be problems down the road.

  23. Jackol,

    Thanks for your reply.

    What about the thousands of small and medium businesses that have already closed and sacked staff because they had no customers, no income and they could not pay bills, rent, wages etc ?

    They may have the best intentions in the world but where are a large number of those business owners ,given their doors are shut due to no customers, now going to get the money to pay non working staff for at least a month before the government antes up with the subsidy ?

    The dilemma is still the same for those businesses. No customers no income. The announcement today does not change that.

    Cheers.

  24. OK, some confusion with the WA numbers. It’s being reported that there were 17 new cases, but a new total of 355 – which would be an increase of 44.

    I think the 17 excludes cruise ship passengers, while the 355 includes them.

    Using the 355 moves the WA doubling time from 8.26 to 6.29 days.

  25. Regarding Woolworths and its registration for priority access for seniors.

    My mum has been trying all day to register. Has anyone else noticed if the system is borked?

  26. “Cud Chewersays:
    Monday, March 30, 2020 at 6:31 pm
    Blobbit

    Should we reach the point where new cases are not exponential but merely linear we will need to answer the question of whether the official stats have any relationship to real infection rates. Hence, more testing.”

    Yes. Looks like WA is saying that they’re now going to increase the scope of testing.

  27. Cud Chewer @ #684 Monday, March 30th, 2020 – 5:29 pm

    The whole wage subsidy thing is a mess.

    It would have been easier to simply require employers to keep their employees as employees – officially on unpaid leave – and then compensate the employees directly with an income. Rather than have a messy system of wage subsidies.

    Ideology must be a close cousin of paradigm. The same rules apply. When you live and breath epicycles there’s no way that you will ever adopt a simplistic heliocentric approach.

  28. doyley –
    I’m not defending the delay or the rate. But they have made it clear that this applies to anyone who was employed on March 1, so if businesses do the sums and work out they can now keep the doors open with this wage subsidy with their already-fired employees, then the layoffs can be walked back, and that’s a good thing.

    As to the delay until May – yes, that may be a cashflow problem for many, but (without making any excuses for the delay) most businesses who have decided to shut up shop, or are on the brink of doing so, the decision mostly is not about one month’s cashflow, it would be about the cashflow for the next 6 months and seeing the writing on the wall. If there is a big bump coming from May and guaranteed for 6 months, that will change the assessment for where they stand with their employees.

  29. sprocket_ @ #682 Monday, March 30th, 2020 – 5:27 pm

    Along comes Santa ScoMo with $1,500 per fortnight each. What do you do?

    Reemploy at full prior rate? Still no revenue.

    Reemploy at Scomo rate? Employment contract hurdles to overcome.

    Put them on “C19 Leave”. Keeps them on the books as employees, pays whatever the benefit amount is, and waives any contractual obligation that they not engage in any other gainful employment for the duration. Up to them if they want to take the cash and chill, take the cash and do some freelancing to top it up, or take the cash and find new employment.

    Probably still contract hurdles to overcome though. With “C19 Leave” not actually being a thing.

  30. What happens to all the workers that worked for business’ that have been forced to close down by the government ?
    Get paid for not showing up ?

  31. An example from a Hospital Union..

    HUGE problems with Scomo’s #wagesubsidy policy

    · 79% of hospo workers are casual & a huge chunk of them started their most recent job in the last 12 months.

    So they get nothing.

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