Another three things

A bluffers’ guide to Saturday’s elections in Queensland, plus further items of marginal interest.

No Newspoll this week it seems. News you can use:

• Queensland’s elections on the weekend are covered in extensive and ongoing detail here. To cut a long story short: the state by-elections of Bundamba and Currumbin resulted in victories for the incumbent parties, namely Labor and the Liberal National Party respectively; Adrian Schrinner of the LNP was re-elected as lord mayor of Brisbane; and the LNP have almost certainly retained a healthy majority on Brisbane City Council. In Bundamba, the LNP ran third behind One Nation (and probably shouldn’t have bothered to run), whose presence in the field also took a bite out of the Labor primary vote. Labor did manage to improve their primary vote at the LNP’s expense in Currumbin, where One Nation is a lot weaker, but the latter’s presence means they will get a lower share of the combined preferences and thus fail to bite into the LNP’s existing 3.3% margin. There has been no notional two-party count, but scrutineers’ figures cited by Antony Green suggest Labor received an uncommonly weak 71% share of Greens preferences.

• Roy Morgan’s promise that it would provide further detail on its half-way intriguing findings on trust in political and business leaders (see here and here) has borne disappointing fruit. Rather than provide the trust and distrust scores as most of us would have hoped, a follow-up release offers only blurry impressions as to the specific attributes that caused the various leaders to be trusted or distrusted, in which “honest/genuine” and “integrity/sincerity” were uselessly listed as distinct response options.

• The Tasmanian government has delayed the date for the periodical Legislative Council elections, which this year encompass the seats of Huon and Rosevears, but only from May 2 to May 30. The Tasmanian Electoral Commission says this will give it more time to “ensure electors have access to the voting process and to maintain the integrity of the 2020 Legislative Council elections during the COVID-19 pandemic”, which presumably means a greater emphasis on postal, pre-poll and maybe telephone voting.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,029 comments on “Another three things”

Comments Page 13 of 21
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  1. Bucephalus:

    E. G. Theodore

    It’s not a matter of whether or not the GP thinks I have COVID19 or not. Testing in WA has only been for those recently returned from Overseas or confirmed contact with a diagnosed case. That was it until I think Saturday when they expanded to a range of categories none of which I fall into.

    True, but the question in your case is whether or not you have serious illness, not whether or not it is COVID19. You may or may not need a COVID19 test, but you do need a diagnosis, and your GP (or some doctor) needs to provide that.

  2. C@tmomma @ #562 Monday, March 30th, 2020 – 4:34 pm

    yabba @ #495 Monday, March 30th, 2020 – 3:51 pm

    C@tmomma @ #473 Monday, March 30th, 2020 – 3:30 pm

    MILAN (Reuters) – Italian researchers are looking at whether a higher than usual number of cases of severe pneumonia and flu in Lombardy in the last quarter of 2019 may be a signal that the new coronavirus might have spread beyond China earlier than previously thought.

    Hmm, seems to be saying it originated in China to me. But that’s just being a Sinophobe I guess. 😐

    Just perhaps, the Italian researchers are loath to imply that the virus originated in Lombardy and spread to Wuhan via an Italian tourist who visited a fish market in Wuhan, or stayed in an Airbnb with a family whose grandmother shopped in a fish market in Wuhan. Any of those, and countless other ‘maybes’ is perfectly possible. You have no idea whatsoever whether any are true or not, so stop pretending that you do.

    My theory is that it started in Austria or Bavaria in a wildfleisch restaurant, of which there are literally thousands, and spread via a Swiss tourist to Lombardy, and from there to Wuhan. Wildfleisch is often served rare, to preserve the flavour and the contained bacteria and viruses. Everybody surely knows about the primitive eating habits of Austrians and Bavarians. You will notice that I did not refer to Germans, as that would be racist.

    You don’t do flippant well, Yabba. Asinine, yes.

    You are demonstrably an absolute expert on asinine. I was truly impressed with your ‘heaving your gut onto the bar’ insult the other day. Chutzpah! Or just experience?

  5. Is this a way to drive everyone’s wage towards minimum wage?

    Or will employers be more likely to keep on people on lower wages and get rid of higher middle management and execs to avoid the very high top up? This is so out there it is hard to get a handle on consequences or how some businesses will try to rort it.

    What doesnt make sense is there is no difference between a business with a 30% drop in turnover and one with a 90% drop. They will each get the same subsidy per employee. Some will be raking it in.

    Is there a profit test on this?

  6. “Businesses should retain some cash in the bank for when they fall on hard times, similar to how everyone else is generally expected to do the same with their personal finances?”

    And if they don’t it’s the employees who get it in the neck.

    Essentially this package is just the government repackaging the dole to make it sound like they’re doing something. They were going to end up paying most of this out anyway.

  8. [Rex Douglassays:
    Monday, March 30, 2020 at 4:54 pm
    C@tmomma @ #586 Monday, March 30th, 2020 – 4:49 pm

    I’m wondering whether this payment will be enough to keep up with a lot of workers’ essential costs.

    They might have to cut back on smokes, VB’s and the pokies.]

    sounds like a PHON voter

  10. ar –

    This is far from the worst piece of policy the LNP have come up with. Can’t tell if everyone is being serious or sarcastic right now.

    Both.
    My point of it being worth a burl was serious. Get it going. See what happens.
    My post about employers doing the right thing was not. Some will do what Frydenberg said… it will bring employers and employees together so get through this and into the other side together. But others, many others, will just be looking at their bottom line, their bonuses, their own salaries and say ‘what is in it for me?’. But the fact remains… if you lay off your staff and they go onto centerlink… then you dont get the cash.

  11. What doesnt make sense is there is no difference between a business with a 30% drop in turnover and one with a 90% drop. They will each get the same subsidy per employee. Some will be raking it in.

    Is there a profit test on this?

    Very good point.

    Only quibble is you imply there is only one thing that doesn’t make sense.

  13. “Or will employers be more likely to keep on people on lower wages and get rid of higher middle management and execs to avoid the very high top up?”

    If you get paid more than 750 p/w, employers have no incentive to keep you on. You’ll still be a nett cost. I’m not clear if they’ll get the payment if they cut your salary to that level. As I read it, they won’t.

  14. Bucephalus says Monday, March 30, 2020 at 2:55 pm

    And I have been following the protocols closely as I had flu like symptoms starting Saturday 14 March and I am still recovering and they won’t do any testing on me. I can cope with the coughing but it would be nice to get my sense of smell and taste back.

    I understand around 60% of people with Coronavirus report the loss of their sense of smell and taste.

  15. RI says Monday, March 30, 2020 at 2:58 pm

    No it doesn’t. The incidence shows that contagion escalated in three areas within a short period of each other….Hubei/Wuhan, Iran and Lombardy. Contagion probably occurred simultaneously in Lombardy and Wuhan. What the record also shows is that Chinese medical personnel and health authorities were the first to formally note the apparent emergence of a new disease and then to investigate it. This absolutely does not mean the disease originated in Wuhan. The antecedents of the first noted case are not known.

    In any case, while the first case may have originated in China – or not – the question is: So what? There is blame-manufacturing going on here. We are seeing blame for its own sake. This reminds me of nothing so much as the Chamberlain convictions, wherein ‘likely suspects’ were wrongly convicted of crimes on the basis of unreliable so-called ‘evidence’ in order to satisfy a public longing to punish someone/anyone.

    We don’t need to blame anyone, but it would be useful to know how it started so we can develop lessons learnt and hopefully be better prepared in the future.

  16. “But the fact remains… if you lay off your staff and they go onto centerlink… then you dont get the cash.”

    About the only incentive I can see here is that by keeping people on, businesses won’t have to pay redundancies. For permanent staff, that might be a small incentive.

  17. “Employers will receive a payment of $1,500 per fortnight per eligible employee. Every eligible employee must receive at least $1,500 per fortnight from this business, before tax.”

    Right, so they cut your pay back to the current unemployment benefit rate.

    The only benefit here is that there isn’t an income test for a persons partner, if they’re working.

  18. Bucephalus says Monday, March 30, 2020 at 2:55 pm

    And I have been following the protocols closely as I had flu like symptoms starting Saturday 14 March and I am still recovering and they won’t do any testing on me. I can cope with the coughing but it would be nice to get my sense of smell and taste back.

    I understand around 60% of people with Coronavirus report the loss of their sense of smell and taste.

    e.g. https://www.watoday.com.au/national/coronavirus-diaries-how-a-perth-woman-s-bland-food-prompted-her-to-get-tested-20200326-p54eb4.html

  19. Scout @ #611 Monday, March 30th, 2020 – 5:05 pm

    [Rex Douglassays:
    Monday, March 30, 2020 at 4:54 pm
    C@tmomma @ #586 Monday, March 30th, 2020 – 4:49 pm

    I’m wondering whether this payment will be enough to keep up with a lot of workers’ essential costs.

    They might have to cut back on smokes, VB’s and the pokies.]

    sounds like a PHON voter

    It’s Rex Douglas, what do you expect?

  21. bc @ #621 Monday, March 30th, 2020 – 5:17 pm

    Bucephalus says Monday, March 30, 2020 at 2:55 pm

    And I have been following the protocols closely as I had flu like symptoms starting Saturday 14 March and I am still recovering and they won’t do any testing on me. I can cope with the coughing but it would be nice to get my sense of smell and taste back.

    I understand around 60% of people with Coronavirus report the loss of their sense of smell and taste.

    e.g. https://www.watoday.com.au/national/coronavirus-diaries-how-a-perth-woman-s-bland-food-prompted-her-to-get-tested-20200326-p54eb4.html

    The UNSW Flutracking service is asking participants this question now. So I imagine that Bucephalus does have COVID-19. This is a completely Laymans Diagnosis, mind you.

    Also, it is my best guess that Buce may have caught it in Doha (didn’t he say he went there recently?), or from a worker or other person he associates with that went on a Holiday overseas recently. He may not have known they did because he hasn’t done Contact Tracing and would he remember everyone he came in contact with? Also, it may have been as simple as touching a surface that someone with the virus had recently touched in a public space.

  22. All we need is for the government to tell businesses no need to file your 3rd quarter BAS and pay instalment tax, and we are smokin’

  24. Right wing Lib-Lab trickle downers will make the worker pay dearly in future budgets for this.

    Then again maybe the Greens party might offer a different policy approach to Lib-Labs future austerity budgets …?

  27. ”Basically, the ordinary taxpayer will keep business afloat now by suffering future austerity budget measures.”

    They should cancel remaining tax cuts. Only profitable companies pay tax. Also get serious about corporate tax evasion, cut out rorts like novated leases, wind back negative gearing and stop sending free money to wealthy retirees.

  28. Steve777 @ #626 Monday, March 30th, 2020 – 5:29 pm

    ”Basically, the ordinary taxpayer will keep business afloat now by suffering future austerity budget measures.”

    They should cancel remaining tax cuts. Only profitable companies pay tax. Also get serious about corporate tax evasion, cut out rorts like novated leases, wind back negative gearing and stop sending free money to wealthy retirees.

    Yep, absolutely. Won’t hold my breath though…

  29. Steve777 @ #630 Monday, March 30th, 2020 – 5:29 pm

    ”Basically, the ordinary taxpayer will keep business afloat now by suffering future austerity budget measures.”

    They should cancel remaining tax cuts. Only profitable companies pay tax. Also get serious about corporate tax evasion, cut out rorts like novated leases, wind back negative gearing and stop sending free money to wealthy retirees.

    Whoah! Steve777, you think Morrison has a death wish!?! 😆

  32. lizzie @ #571 Monday, March 30th, 2020 – 4:39 pm

    However critical I may sound, I am sincerely sorry for everyone who has lost their job and now has to go through more paperwork in order to receive money. And for all the businesses which will have to prove their turnover has fallen by at least 30%.

    Well said and ditto from me,

  34. This should be fun. Imagine having a quiet family party on the beach and…

    Meanwhile, in Western Australia, police will begin using drones to shout at people to stay in their homes and follow social distancing rules.In a statement, police said the Remotely Piloted Aircraft Systems would “deliver public service announcements”.

    The same system was used in Hubei province in China and is also being used in France and some areas of the UK.

    A demonstration for local media is scheduled for 3pm Perth time today. Police said the drones will have a broadcasting range of up to 1km, which sounds quite loud, and be “highly visible, fitted with flashing lights and sirens, similarly to that of a police vehicle”.

  35. “This $1,500 payment is a flat payment and is the equivalent of around 70 per cent of the median wage and represents about 100 per cent of of the median wage in those sectors most heavily impacted by the coronavirus like retail, like hospitality and tourism,” he said.

    Someone in Treasury might be a lurking bludger….70% of the median wage being within range of the 80% called for here in the recent past….

    This is a good idea. Unequivocally, it’s a good idea. If it’s complimented by generous job-seeker provisions, carry-on loans to small businesses, debt and rental relief, official support to the credit markets, new investment loans and direct transfers to households whose incomes are otherwise in line to be trashed…if all this is done, then maybe a recession will be avoided.

  39. Rex Douglas says:
    Monday, March 30, 2020 at 5:26 pm
    Right wing Lib-Lab trickle downers will make the worker pay dearly in future budgets for this.

    In Rexology, too much fun is never enough.

  41. briefly

    Morrison is promising to have weekly meetings with Albo. Very good

    A sign Scrott is actually in ‘serious’ mode ? I hope so.

  42. briefly @ #638 Monday, March 30th, 2020 – 5:42 pm

    Rex Douglas says:
    Monday, March 30, 2020 at 5:26 pm
    Right wing Lib-Lab trickle downers will make the worker pay dearly in future budgets for this.

    In Rexology, too much fun is never enough.

    3-eyed ravens like you would have known this before even Morrison thought of the idea.

  45. lizzie @ #634 Monday, March 30th, 2020 – 4:39 pm

    This should be fun. Imagine having a quiet family party on the beach and…

    Meanwhile, in Western Australia, police will begin using drones to shout at people to stay in their homes and follow social distancing rules.In a statement, police said the Remotely Piloted Aircraft Systems would “deliver public service announcements”.

    The same system was used in Hubei province in China and is also being used in France and some areas of the UK.

    A demonstration for local media is scheduled for 3pm Perth time today. Police said the drones will have a broadcasting range of up to 1km, which sounds quite loud, and be “highly visible, fitted with flashing lights and sirens, similarly to that of a police vehicle”.

    There was an article this past week about police in the UK being chastised for unfairly shaming people by posting videos of them going for walks in the countryside with their dogs. It’s interesting that it is being tried here. I wonder who gets to fly the drones. Who records the video. Where the recordings are stored. What security is applied to the recordings. etc.

  46. In Rexology, there are only losses and they are always attributable to Labor. I’m actually hoping for some QE…for Corona Bonds, issued by the Commonwealth, purchased by the
    RBA and then extinguished. That would be good. Maybe 10% of GDP…let’s see.

  47. Look, it’s nice to have some sort of household certainty for the next 6 months. A big relief for many.

    Attention now needs to go to how future policy will be go.

    Beware the Lib-Lab trickle-downer wolves currently in sheeps clothing…

  48. Why would a business owner who has already closed their doors and sacked their staff due to a huge decline in trade now decide to pay those staff members out of their own pocket for at least a month before receiving any money from the ATO and where would, in many cases, the business owner get the money upfront to pay those workers for a month at least ?

    Why would a business owner who employs casuals in their business and has closed the business even bother registering with the ATO ? Why would they not simply decide to stay closed, wait for the restrictions to lift and then hire new casual staff out of the great pool of unemployed casuals ?

    Huge reliance on business of all sizes to register now, pay staff who are not working because of no customers out of their own pocket for at least a month until the ATO reimburses them.

    Give me a break.

  49. Old and ill in the UK ? Ensure you look spritely at all times
    ——————————————–
    A department head at Imperial College Healthcare revealed on Sunday that fewer and fewer marginal patients are being selected for ventilator treatment because so many serious cases require a fortnight on the machines……………Intensive care for coronavirus patients is now being limited to those “reasonably certain” to survive, a major NHS London trust has conceded.
    A major London NHS Trust says ventilator treatment is not in many elderly patients’ best interests
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/03/29/intensive-care-coronavirus-patients-now-limited-reasonably-certain/

  50. Update. Reported c19 cases (5pm Qld time)

    Projected for today: 4,601
    Reported today: 4,220
    New regression coeff: 0.9872
    Projection for tomorrow:4,971
    N: 7

    Comment: This is the first regression coefficient less than 0.9900, and the visual check (graph) indicates a further lessening of acceleration. I am mulling the pros and cons of a new curve. On an ominous note though, the number of deaths (18) will soon become sufficient for analysis.

    ———–
    4,093 https://www.health.gov.au/news/health-alerts/novel-coronavirus-2019-ncov-health-alert/coronavirus-covid-19-current-situation-and-case-numbers
    4,163 https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/australia/
    4,220 https://www.covid19data.com.au/

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