Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor

Newspoll has both major parties up on the primary vote, Scott Morrison’s standing recovering somewhat, and generally positive results for federal and state governments on handling of coronavirus.

For all that our world may have changed over the past three weeks, Newspoll has not: The Australian reports the latest result has Labor’s lead steady at 51-49. There has, however, been primary vote movement in favour of the major parties, with both up by two points: the Coalition to 40%, Labor to 36%. The Greens are down one to 12%, One Nation unchanged on 4% and others down three to 8%.

As with Essential Research, Scott Morrison has recovered somewhat from his post-bushfire slump, with his approval rating up three to 41% and disapproval down five to 53%. He now holds a 42-38 lead over Anthony Albanese as preferred prime minister, who led 41-40 last time. Albanese’s net rating has also improved, his approval rating up one to 40% (The Australian report says down three, but I believe it has its wires crossed from the preferred prime minister movement) and disapproval down four to 40%.

In other findings, 75% support the government’s decision to abandon a budget surplus in favour of economic stimulus; 51% believe the federal government has managed preparedness for the crisis well; 66% are satisfied with federal and state government efforts to inform the public about the virus; but only 47% feel the same way about managing its economic impact.

UPDATE: The Australian’s reportage rather downplays the fact, but the poll found only 33% were satisfied with the economic response of governments (the question emphasised “both federal and state”) to the coronavirus outbreak, with 47% dissatisfied. The 75% rating in favour of stimulus did not relate specifically to the government’s policy, but to the general notion that “the Morrison government should provide a stimulus package to safeguard the economy”, with only 14% favouring the alternative option that it “should prioritise its promise to deliver a budget surplus”.

For the other questions, 76% of respondents were worried about the economic impact of the outbreak, versus only 20% for confident; 51% were worried, and 47% confident, about the preparedness of the public health system, for which 51% were satisified with the federal and state government response and 33% dissatisfied; and 63% were confident, and 35% worried, about “the amount of information available to Australians about how to protect themselves”, for which 65% were satisfied and 28% dissatisfied with the federal and state government response.

The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1501.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,631 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor”

  1. RI says:
    Tuesday, March 17, 2020 at 9:05 pm
    Today I counted up with the members of my family and their contact groups who are probable COVID-19 cases. The total comes to 12, all arising from community spread at the centre of which lie childcare and other everyday family-related activities in Perth and Sydney. The vectors are daily life.

    None were really “sick” but all had symptoms over the last 4 weeks of one kind or another that are consistent with the published descriptions. All have seemingly recovered after episodes that lasted from a few days to more than 3 weeks. None were able to be tested. None are included in the official stats. They will not know for some time if they’re actually cases or not. It would be great to have that info. Really great.

    We’re all very concerned about the most elderly members of the family, the demands that will arise from prolonged isolation and our capacity to care for them if they become cases.
    _______________________________________________
    What special knowledge do you have which enables you to make this diagnosis?

  2. Mavis @ #1495 Tuesday, March 17th, 2020 – 9:11 pm

    Diogenes:

    [‘The private hospitals don’t want to know you if you even remotely could have coronavirus. You have to line up at the door and fill out a questionnaire and get your temperature taken. Any flag and you aren’t seen.’]

    Thanks, Dio.

    France have apparently nationalised the Private Hospitals.

  3. Lars, Briefly has been granted a special COVID-19 detection spell. It is similar to what Margaret Court uses to ward off the disease.

  4. C@tmomma
    says:
    My thoughts exactly. I’m playing along as Sharn. I don’t care if I come second, as long as I’m still there at the end.
    ____________
    I hear Sharn is a top Barrister with a fine legal mind.

  5. This crisis will be / is shutting down large sections of the economy. The stimulus needs to be huge. And when the crisis passes we don’t want to pay for it with austerity. Cancel the corporate tax cuts. Only profitable companies are required to pay it. Cancel negative gearing. Cancel franking credits. Crack down on tax rorts. If budget balance is a problem, no worries. We can repay it in several years.

  6. Re Isopropyl Alcohol: Our local Mitre 10 has it in litre bottles and I bought some in Coles in the guise of Screen Cleanser for electronic products.

  7. That our national currency is the plaything of international speculators is likely an indication of the fragility of our economy. It is highly susceptible to shocks, and this one is a doozy.

  8. Here’s how the Brits nationalised hospitals…

    The first step in creating a nationalised health service was in 1938. The imminent war obliged the Government to establish an Emergency Medical Service. All the various types of hospitals were registered and run centrally to anticipate large numbers of expected casualties.
    By the end of World War II, the concept of an integrated, state-funded hospital service had become established and, in 1948, the newly-elected Labour (socialist) government created a National Health Service (NHS) as none of a series of welfare reforms designed to
    guarantee basic levels of personal and social security. For the first time, a UK government assumed responsibility for the provision of a comprehensive preventive and curative service for the whole population.
    Source: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/57a08d91e5274a31e000192c/The-history-and-development-of-the-UK-NHS.pdf
    _______________________________

  9. Australia`s states certainly have the power to compulsorily acquire and run private hospitals. The Commonwealth does not, except in relation to non-benefit powers (territories, defence, quarantine etc.) has such a power (thanks to the civil conscription ban included in the post-war social services amendding of the Constitution).

  10. I had an epiphany about sourcing alcohol-based wipes and went to Officeworks. There I found the only wipes left on the shelves were those which said ‘Alcohol free and non-flammable’.

    Even the hand soap in Officeworks had been sold out. Just incredible.

  11. Cud Chewer says:
    Tuesday, March 17, 2020 at 9:12 pm
    RI @9:05

    Almost certainly most/nearly all of those events were colds/flu. But its still consistent with the true number of covid19 infections being 10-20 times higher than the official numbers.

    Nah. No cases were colds. Not one. The flu? Very doubtful. Respiratory symptoms + fever. This is a cluster in one family with branches in Sydney and Perth who have been together in the last 4 weeks.

  12. Why don’t they go the whole hog and fold the Private Health Insurers back into the Public Health system?

    Can you see a Liberal government doing that?

  13. The co-option of the private hospitals and insurers is the major health care reform which is long overdue. It was recommended by Rudd’s Bennett commission but the Ruddster wet his pants when he saw it.

    My major complaints against Littlefinger is that the Mediscare meant reform of the health care system has become politically impossible.

    There is no doubt that Australia’s big advantage during the pandemic will be the fat in the system represented by the private system. If the pandemic does lead to a co-option at least some good will come from it.

  14. Chewer:

    Does rather seem that Vodka confers immunity to covid19…

    Vodka probably knocks lot of them off before they reach the vulnerable age…

  15. Lars Von Trier says:
    Tuesday, March 17, 2020 at 9:18 pm

    Everyone is literate. That’s a start. They can describe their experiences and relate them to published information. In one case, the person involved attended a COVID clinic and asked for a test. They described their symptoms and their Observations were taken – temp (fever present), HR and so on.

    The nurse said they were a probable case but they could not be tested. They were sent home and told to self-isolate. So the nurse certainly identified them and asked them to leave “immediately”, saying “please do not stay here. You have to leave now.”

    I never claimed to be able to diagnose anything. I wish that tests were available. They’re not. This is a fuck up by the LNP. It is just one of a series of pitiful mistakes made by this worthless government, for whom you are a cheer-leader.

  16. The constitution limitation of civil conscription only applies to doctors and dentists. The commonwealth has the power to compulsorily acquire property including hospitals but only at a commercial price.
    The smarter thing to do, as recommended by the Bennett Commission, is to split the purchaser of public health services from the provider. This would increase public health assets by 30% at less cost

  17. The nurse said they were a probable case but they could not be tested. They were sent home and told to self-isolate. So the nurse certainly identified them and asked them to leave “immediately”, saying “please do not stay here. You have to leave now.”

    That’s shocking. You should be tweeting this to journalists..

  18. Confessions @ #1522 Tuesday, March 17th, 2020 – 9:35 pm

    Why don’t they go the whole hog and fold the Private Health Insurers back into the Public Health system?

    Can you see a Liberal government doing that?

    Heh heh. I can’t even see them nationalising the Private Hospitals! No, what they’ll do, which I think has been done before, is pay the Private Hospitals to take Public patients. It then becomes a nice little earner for them, and after Coronavirus has ‘normalised’ within society and a vaccine has been developed, they can go back to business as usual.

  19. imacca
    “Spain bringing into emergency public ownership all private hospitals.”
    —————————————-
    In the case of a pandemic the Victorian Government had or still does have a gentleman’s agreement with the private hospitals that if needed the state can do something similar to what Spain is doing.

  20. Interestingly some studies have prodromal temperatures in less than 50% of patients. If true random temp checks are as effective as tossing a coin in diagnosing COVID 19

  21. Oakeshott Country @ #1531 Tuesday, March 17th, 2020 – 9:51 pm

    Interestingly some studies have prodromal temperatures in less than 50% of patients. If true random temp checks are as effective as tossing a coin in diagnosing COVID 19

    Singapore said they only did temperature checks to reinforce the severe nature of COVID-19 in the populace and the other messages they were sending, not as a diagnostic tool.

  22. Umm.. a low life expectancy due to other causes might explain a lower death rate.

    But cases not showing up at all? Vodka? I was joking btw.

    Either Russia truly is lucky for some reason, or they are going to be facing a shit storm.

  23. Singapore said they only did temperature checks to reinforce the severe nature of COVID-19 in the populace and the other messages they were sending, not as a diagnostic tool.

    a) link?
    b) this is why I think all the cleaning teams the NSW government is employing should be wear full body suits – purely to give the public the message to stay home.

  24. Cud Chewer @ #1535 Tuesday, March 17th, 2020 – 9:54 pm

    Singapore said they only did temperature checks to reinforce the severe nature of COVID-19 in the populace and the other messages they were sending, not as a diagnostic tool.

    a) link?
    b) this is why I think all the cleaning teams the NSW government is employing should be wear full body suits – purely to give the public the message to stay home.

    I have been reading a LOT! Also listening to radio and watching TV. I just can’t remember the specific source of that information. I think it was part of the coverage by The Washington Post. I could search my history. I may do it tomorrow. I may also have read about it on my phone, which isn’t synced with my computer.

  25. C@tmomma @ #1529 Tuesday, March 17th, 2020 – 6:49 pm

    Confessions @ #1522 Tuesday, March 17th, 2020 – 9:35 pm

    Why don’t they go the whole hog and fold the Private Health Insurers back into the Public Health system?

    Can you see a Liberal government doing that?

    Heh heh. I can’t even see them nationalising the Private Hospitals! No, what they’ll do, which I think has been done before, is pay the Private Hospitals to take Public patients. It then becomes a nice little earner for them, and after Coronavirus has ‘normalised’ within society and a vaccine has been developed, they can go back to business as usual.

    Yep that’s more like a Liberal govt SOP!

  26. Medical and dental benefits is a bit bigger than just doctors and dentists, however the separate pharmaceutical sickness and hospital benefits clause does not appear to be included. Where the boundary lies is a matter for the High Court.

  27. Cud Chewer

    Russia is vast and much of the country pretty isolated. With all the restrictions and sanctions on Russia the flow in and out of the place by people carrying the disease would be much reduced compared to the rest of Europe.

  28. That will only delay the kick off poroti. Once its there, it will grow exponentially like everywhere else, at least in large cities.

  29. Formulation I
    To produce final concentrations of ethanol 80% v/v, glycerol 1.45% v/v, hydrogen peroxide (H2O2) 0.125% v/v.

    Pour into a 1000 ml graduated flask:

    ethanol 96% v/v, 833.3 ml
    H2O2 3%, 41.7 ml
    glycerol 98%,14.5 ml
    Top up the flask to 1000 ml with distilled water or water that has been boiled and cooled; shake the flask gently to mix the content.

    I noted all this a week ago (including the 60:1 ethanol:glycerine concentration), plus provided “as lived” advice on handling and the finer points of preparation..

    Sadly Dr Wombat et al labelled it as “deranged/racist bullshit yammering”, and a vital week was lost while you all reverently asked him questions he either couldn’t answer, or did so with so much techno-babble that you needed a medical dictionary to get past the first sentence.

    Oh well, tomorrow is another day…

  30. Wife had a potential exposure at work today (radiographer at a private medical imaging practice within a public hospital), she’s furious.
    Patient was referred via GP for a scan to check for something kidney related.
    Symptoms of fever, coughing, shortness of breath. Had recently flown domestically via international connected flights. Had recently met overseas friends, F1 team members, and was going to the race until it was cancelled.
    Had since gone through hours of public health hotline, talking to GP etc, was cleared. Referred for an x-ray. Showed up as an outpatient, sat in waiting room, had a lovely conversation with my wife, including about all his symptoms and F1 escapades etc, at which point shes starting to get a bit suspicious.
    Scans showed what looks like pneumonia – Radiologist goes ‘oh shit’
    Wife rings patients GP, and rings ED, Gowns up.
    ED doctor tells wife to bring the patient to triage, in the meantime changes his mind and goes ballistic when they show up. Gets sent to the fever clinic. Chest CT scan requested. Performed again by my wife, subsequently performs a ‘terminal clean’ of the room.
    A sliver of good news, they finally decided to tested the patient, took swabs and sent them off, so we get to find out in 3-4 days if an entire department was exposed without warning.
    The time she spent with the patient is outside of a ‘casual encounter’ of < 15mins which is regarded as 'no risk', she asked if she needed to take any precautions but has been told to keep showing up to work

    The patient was lovely, extremely apologetic and incredibly angry that they were allowed to be a potential risk like that.

    I'm already working from home, with 2 young kids, one of them still expected to go to school.

  31. Bushfire Bill,
    Now is not the time to continue to pursue your vendetta against rhwombat. You are merely reiterating what you have said dozens of times now. Does your ego need to constantly sated like that or something? COVID-19 is not some point-scoring exercise to be conducted on a blog relentlessly. Both of you have worthwhile things to say. Can you please just leave it at that?

    Oh, and I will continue to ‘reverently ask him questions’, if you don’t mind, because he’s a doctor with a specialty in this particular area. And you aren’t.

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