Six states’ Democratic primaries: live commentary

Joe Biden is very likely to win the Democratic nomination, with Sanders needing big breaks in today’s primaries. Guest post by Adrian Beaumont

11:50am Nate Silver on Washington’s count

11:40am In Mississippi, Sanders has 14.8% with all precincts in.  Mississippi has a large provisional vote, so Sanders may exceed the 15% threshold for statewide delegates once those votes are tallied.  Biden won every single county in the three M states.

11:32am However, there’s bad news for Sanders in Washington State.  The latest votes put Biden ahead by 34.8% to 33.5%, reversing a 0.2% Sanders lead in yesterday’s counting.  Dave Wasserman has called Washington for Biden.  Washington appeared demographically friendly to Sanders, and he may not be able to win another state-run primary.  There are few delegates to be decided by party-run primaries and caucuses.

11:24am Thursday In good news for Sanders, he’s the winner in North Dakota by a 53-40 margin.  ND was a party-run primary, not state-run.  There were only 14 polling places for the whole state, and just 14,400 votes total.  Left-wing activists are more likely to make up a greater share of turnout in such low-turnout affairs.

4:00pm Idaho CALLED for Biden.  He currently leads by 48-42 with 74% in.

3:53pm If Sanders stays in, next Tuesday is likely to be brutal for him.  Four big states vote: Florida, Ohio, Illinois and Arizona.  Given Biden’s dominance everywhere in Michigan, he is likely to crush Sanders.  14.5% of delegates will be awarded next Tuesday, taking us to 61.5% of all pledged delegates.

3:49pm In the delegate count at The Green Papers, Biden now leads Sanders by 845 to 706.  Overall popular votes are 37.6% Biden, 30.1% Sanders.

3:44pm With 68% reporting in Idaho, Biden leads by 47-42.  The bottom line, no matter what happens in Washington’s late counting, Idaho or North Dakota, is that Biden is dominating with black voters and both higher-educated and lower-educated whites.  Biden will clearly be the Democratic nominee to face Trump in November.

3:30pm With 22% reporting in North Dakota, Sanders leads Biden by 45-34.  But there are only 14 delegates in this small, strongly Republican state.

3:18pm With 50% reporting in Idaho, Biden leads Sanders by 47-41.

2:57pm Biden has won every county in Mississippi and Missouri, and is barely losing two counties in Michigan.  In the 2016 contest against Hillary Clinton, Sanders dominated in rural areas where there were many lower-educated whites.  Not against Biden.

2:50pm In Mississippi, Sanders’ vote has dropped to 14.9% with 97% in.  If his vote stays at that level, he will miss the 15% delegate threshold for statewide delegates.

2:48pm With all counties reporting initial postal votes in Washington, Sanders leads by just 0.2%, 32.7-32.5.  Many of these votes were cast when other candidates were still in.  I don’t think we will get the remaining votes today; we’ll have to wait a week or two for them to come in.

2:16pm In the first results from Idaho, Biden leads by 43-33.

2:14pm Washington uses an all-postal ballot.  Votes that arrive before election day are tallied as soon as polls close.  With an estimated 64% reporting, Sanders and Biden are tied at 32.8% each.

1:52pm Meanwhile in California, Sanders’ lead has dropped to 6.7% today from 7.0% yesterday and 9% on election night last week.

1:38pm Some good news for Sanders: the North Dakota postal vote has him winning by 40-26 over Biden, but Biden is likely to gain when election day votes report.  Meanwhile, Biden leads by 53-39 in Michigan (55% in), 59-34 in Missouri (66% in) and 81-15 in Mississippi (77% in).  If Sanders does not reach 15% in Mississippi, he will not qualify for statewide delegates.

12:17pm Biden is leading by 54-28 in Missouri with 6% reporting.  There’s a large vote for candidates who have dropped out, which should drop as more election day votes are counted.

12:06pm With all polls now closed in Michigan, and Biden 12 points up without much from Detroit (Wayne county), Michigan has been CALLED for Biden.

11:50am With 3% reporting in Mississippi, Biden has an 83-13 lead.  Most of what’s been counted is likely postal votes, which skew to Biden, but that’s a massive margin.

11:46am CNN analyst Harry Enten

11:43am Biden still leading by ten points in Michigan with 10% reporting.  Twitter commentary suggests Sanders is losing white lower-educated precincts that he won against Clinton in 2016.

11:27am Biden leads by 54.4-41.4 in Michigan with 4% reporting.

11:20am Biden leads by 85-11 in the first Mississippi results.

11:13am Remember that Democratic delegates are awarded proportionally with a 15% threshold.  So margins of victory matter, not just winning a state.  A massive win for Biden in Mississippi will earn him many delegates.

11:07am Based on exit polls, Mississippi and Missouri have been CALLED for Biden.

10:42am Wednesday Polls close at 11am AEDT in Missouri, Mississippi and North Dakota.  Michigan has two time zones, with the majority closing at 11am, while the western bit closes at 12pm.  Idaho and Washington close at 2pm.

Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is an honorary associate at the University of Melbourne. His work on electoral matters for The Conversation can be found here, and his own website is here.

Democratic primaries will be held today in Idaho, Michigan, Mississippi, Missouri, North Dakota and Washington State. The result will determine 352 of the 3,979 total pledged delegates (9% of the total). Michigan (125 delegates) and Washington (89) are the two biggest states voting. Polls close Wednesday between 11am and 2pm AEDT.

Last Tuesday, Joe Biden won ten states to four for Bernie Sanders. In the next two days, the two remaining contenders, Mike Bloomberg and Elizabeth Warren, withdrew, leaving a two-candidate contest for the remaining delegates. Biden dominated the south, but also had surprise wins in Minnesota, Massachusetts and Maine.

The delegate count at The Green Papers gives Biden a 681 to 608 lead over Sanders, but this understates Biden’s advantage. Sanders has an advantage with left-wing Democrats and Latinos, but most of the southwestern states, where Latinos have a relatively high share of the population, have now voted.

In 2016, Sanders benefited from lower-educated white voters aversion to Hillary Clinton, something Donald Trump exploited in the general election. However, the Minnesota county results show that Biden performed well in rural regions, helping him to a nine-point statewide win. This implies that Biden has a greater appeal than Clinton to lower-educated whites.

Biden is winning black voters by massive margins, and he is winning both higher-educated and lower-educated whites. There are few states with a significant Latino population left. An exception is Florida, which votes with three other large states next Tuesday. However, Florida’s Latinos are far more conservative than Latinos in the southwest owing to the Cuban Americans. Florida is also demographically elderly. Florida polls have Biden crushing Sanders.

Biden leads Sanders by 51-35 in the RealClearPolitics national average in polls conducted since last Tuesday. Biden leads Sanders by 22 points in Michigan, and has a small lead in Washington, which should be Sanders’ strongest of the six states. In 2016, Sanders defeated Clinton in Michigan after a massive polling error, but he was performing much better then with lower-educated whites.

There’s also bad news for Sanders from California’s late counting, where his lead over Biden has been reduced from nine points on election night to seven. Late counting in California usually skews left, but many moderates did not vote early, withholding their vote until they knew Biden was the moderate candidate.

358 comments on “Six states’ Democratic primaries: live commentary”

Comments Page 4 of 8
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  1. “ Yes, I can see your point, but Biden will run on the promise of returning competence, civility and decency to public life, making an obvious contrast with Trump. It could well be that such an appeal is the “hope” that enough Americans are looking for.”

    I’m sorry but it is quite clear that only the politically engaged enthusiasts give more than zero fucks about any of that: Trump’s approval ratings actually went up during the dumpster fire of the impeachment trial.

    The barely engaged care only about jobs and whatever else is going on in their immediate square metre.

  2. I agree if Bernie can’t win Michigan, where his inequality pitch was very relevant, then he can’t win the nomination or the presidency. Time to bow out.

  4. Biden drew Michigan support from groups that backed Sanders in 2016, exit polls show

    From CNN’s Grace Sparks

    Joe Biden’s projected Michigan win was carried by voters over the age of 65, moderates, and black voters, according to exit polls.

    Rick Wilson‏Verified account @TheRickWilson

    Someone told you that old people vote. SOMEONE.

  5. Also the US stock market turning bad is surely bad for Trump. All those older voters being disappointed in lower retirements savings won’t be so pleased. He pumped up the market so it was always a risk.Covid19 was just the straw that broke the financial camel’s back.

  6. Bellwether
    Sure. You think a useless and pointless debate which takes some bark off Biden is more important than getting rid of Trump.
    But why do you prioritize things in this fashion?

  7. Day 6 of why hasn’t bernie quit yet
    6 days ago 538 polling showed bernie’s support had absolutely collapsed.
    Results coming in now support that fact.
    Could be generous and start today as day 1 for those who queried the polling.

  10. Is Bellwether still trying to pump up Sanders’ tyres? Lol.

    Oh, sorry, that’s morphed into questioning Biden’s, oh, whatever the Alt Right trolls have cooked up this week. 🙄

  11. Remember when we were all so starved for election results that we lived and died by every special election? Well, there was a special election for a New Hampshire state House seat tonight, and the Democratic candidate won 51 percent to 49 percent in a seat that Trump carried 53 percent to 43 percent – Nathaniel Rakich 538

    Just in: Democrat Kathleen Martins wins Hooksett special @NHHouseofReps election over GOPer Elliot Axelman. Unofficial: tally: 628-594 #nhpolitics #WMUR
    — John DiStaso (@jdistaso) March 11, 2020

  12. Well, Andrew Yang just threw his support behind Biden. Shut it down. Can’t beat that endorsement! 😆

    For real though, good to have him on board.

  13. ‘Bellwether says:
    Wednesday, March 11, 2020 at 12:40 pm

    Boerwar @ #156 Wednesday, March 11th, 2020 – 12:38 pm

    Bellwether
    Sure. You think a useless and pointless debate which takes some bark off Biden is more important than getting rid of Trump.
    But why do you prioritize things in this fashion?

    In the interest of full transparency. What are people fearful of?’

    That Sanders, who cannot win, will do his best to ensure that Biden, who can win, won’t win.

    Why do you prioritize playing useless political games over trashing Trump and winning the Senate?

  14. The barely engaged care only about jobs and whatever else is going on in their immediate square metre.

    Yeah, and if Trump doesn’t quarantine those workers, toot sweet, they’re going to be dying on the job. Gotta love a job!

    Now, from my extremely cynical political perspective, the reason why Trump isn’t doing any of this is because he’s gambling on the US coming into Summer and the numbers of C-19 cases becoming a lot less, and the fact he isn’t authorising testing will make it look that way if it doesn’t happen naturally.

    The guy is evil personified.

  16. (((Harry Enten)))
    @ForecasterEnten
    Biden’s got a strength in rural areas across the north (MI included) that Clinton never had… A lot of Sanders’ strength in 2016 continues to look like it was anti-Clinton.
    12:38 AM · Mar 11, 2020·Mobile Web (M2)

    Dave Wasserman
    @Redistrict
    The big story in Michigan: the shifting allegiance of working-class white Dems since ’16.
    Pretty much the entire Upper Peninsula voted for Sanders in ’16. So far, huge Biden margins.
    1:12 AM · Mar 11, 2020·Twitter Web App

  17. Nick Corasaniti
    Nick Corasaniti, in New York Just now
    Yang makes, by my count, 11 former Democratic candidates to endorse Biden, joining Booker, Harris, Bloomberg, Klobuchar, Buttigieg, O’Rourke, Delaney, Patrick, Ryan and Moulton.

  23. The Clinton-hostile ranks that supported Sanders and then Trump in 2016 are moving back to Biden. They made up the Obama/Trump swing vote in 2016. If they shift to the Democratic ticket this time the balance of power in the US will move decisively away from the Republicans.

    Sanders should quit.

  26. For the record, I like Andrew Yang because he genuinely wants to make a positive difference and improve things, beyond just getting elected to something.

  27. A growing clamour for Bernie to throw the towel in, like this..

    Jeremy Peters
    Jeremy Peters, in New York Just now
    Rep. James Clyburn of South Carolina told NPR that if Sanders doesn’t win a single state tonight, the D.N.C. should “shut this primary down” and cancel the remaining debates.

  30. Dave Wasserman
    @Redistrict
    Livingston Co., MI (conservative outer Detroit suburbs) is 100% in. In 2016, Sanders won it by 21.3%. In 2020, turnout went up 45% and Biden won it by 17.0%.
    1:55 AM · Mar 11, 2020·Twitter Web App

  31. Counterchekist‏ @counterchekist

    Be humble in victory, patriots. No gloating.

    Now is the time to build coalitions, mend fences, and focus on getting that f—king traitorous buffoon out of the White House.

    Don Winslow Verified account @donwinslow

    I’ve just been informed by someone who would DEFINITELY know that @BernieSanders will announce that he will suspend his campaign on Wednesday or Thursday.

  32. Biden the safer option.Trump wont be happy.His antisocialist campaign is now dead in the water.

    It’ll be great to not see things like this all across social media for the next year…

  34. The suburban surge for Biden even happened in Mississippi, in places where neither candidate campaigned.

    DeSoto County (Memphis suburbs) cast 7,671 votes in the 2016 primary, total. Clinton won 5,620 votes.

    Today, DeSoto cast 11,102 votes. Biden won 8,592.

    — Dave Weigel (@daveweigel) March 11, 2020

  35. Blobbit @ #185 Wednesday, March 11th, 2020 – 1:07 pm

    Any ideas as to why Sanders is so unpopular amongst black voters?

    The Super Tuesday results reveal a serious flaw in Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders’ campaign: his lack of support among African Americans, whose votes are critical not only for winning the Democratic primary, but for defeating President Donald Trump in the fall.

    Democrats who wish to beat Trump but prefer Sanders to former Vice President Joe Biden, must ask themselves the following question: Can a campaign that rests primarily on class warfare and economic justice, one that largely relegates race to a concern simply encompassed by economic reform, attract enough black voters to prevail?

    Recently, we conducted a national survey of the black community to answer this question. We found that if Democrats hope to mobilize the African American community, a Sanders-style message framing Trump as a threat to the poor and the working-class isn’t the best way to do it. If the goal is to maximize black turnout in 2020, a message emphasizing the threat that Trump poses to racial progress, according to our survey, is more effective.

    https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/03/07/why-bernie-sanders-economic-message-isnt-enough-to-win-over-black-voters-118197

  36. C@t, the post (you put up iirc) as to why the black voters were so supportive of Biden was a light bulb moment for me. I well appreciate that the imperative is to get rid of Trump, but my disappointment is that this is arguably the last chance the USA had to embrace some decent humanitarian policies in a radical turn around back to something approaching pre-Reagan.

  37. ItzaDream,
    African-Americans, and to a certain extent Latinos, know it in their bones. Maybe you might like to read the link I just put up as well? 🙂

  38. Sarah Frostenson, 538 live blog

    The suburban voter gains stick out to me and are a continuation of something we’ve seen in the Trump era (most notably in the 2018 midterms). But what also sticks out to me about Biden’s campaign is that he’s not only winning suburban voters, but he’s also winning rural voters and white voters without a college degree, two groups Clinton struggled with in 2016

  39. Any ideas as to why Sanders is so unpopular amongst black voters?

    He ignored them? As I said, I can’t speak for African Americans as I am not one but I feel like the fact that many in or adjacent to his campaign were dismissing South Carolina and other deep south states as unwinnable red states, as if it’s the racist, confederate flag-flying, white good-ol-boys who are voting in the Democratic Primary might have been a miscalculation. As was skipping Selma. Waiting until Biden had momentum before he pulled out the Jesse Jackson endorsement sure didn’t help. Maybe also basing your campaign around winning the “White Working Class” with only a token nod to black voters might have contributed. But I don’t know. I also hear it was only because Biden was the VP to a black President.

  40. Reid J. Epstein
    @reidepstein
    NEWS: Bernie Sanders will not speak or appear in public to address tonight’s results, his campaign says.
    2:18 AM · Mar 11, 2020·Twitter Web App

  41. ItzaDream @ #186 Wednesday, March 11th, 2020 – 1:11 pm

    C@t, the post (you put up iirc) as to why the black voters were so supportive of Biden was a light bulb moment for me. I well appreciate that the imperative is to get rid of Trump, but my disappointment is that this is arguably the last chance the USA had to embrace some decent humanitarian policies in a radical turn around back to something approaching pre-Reagan.

    Yes, just read thanks. (We hit the press at the same time.) As usual, the issue is turnout. And as usual, it isn’t easy walking in someone else’s shoes. That Biden gained so much respect for being an honourable second string to Obama’s (black) presidency set him in very good stead.

  42. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez says:

    “There’s no sugar-coating it. Tonight’s a tough night. Tonight’s a tough night electorally,” @AOC says in her Instagram live chat.

    — Julio Ricardo Varela (@julito77) March 11, 2020

  43. RL
    “For the record, I like Andrew Yang because he genuinely wants to make a positive difference and improve things, beyond just getting elected to something.”
    I like him too; I’m surprised you didn’t find his UBI platform too extreme, or find the Yang Gang too toxic on twitter. Perhaps he’ll get a high profile position, but he seems less of an outsider now.
    I also agree that there are many who just want to get elected rather than make a positive difference. Hence my support for Bernie; a once in a lifetime candidate, who wanted to make a positive difference

  45. So the 2020 campaign will look a little like the 1920 campaign….. “a return to normalcy” was Harding’s slogan with a recent pandemic and recession.

  46. Sprocket – My understanding is that North Dakota runs what is called a “firehouse caucus”, which is basically a normal primary, but one run by the Democratic Party, and not by the state electoral commission. However, ND is such a small, and such a red, state that turn-out in a Democratic Party election is not likely to involve a particular high number of people, so odd results are still possible, just like a regular caucus.

  47. So the 2020 campaign will look a little like the 1920 campaign….. “a return to normalcy” was Harding’s slogan with a recent pandemic and recession.

    One could argue a similar ethos was behind Nixon in 1968, Carter in 1976, Reagan in 1980 and G.W. Bush in 2000. A return from the perceived excesses of the era. Probably others too.

  48. BS Fairman – Yes, I suspect that you are right about that. I would guess that something along those lines will be the crux of Biden’s pitch. Given the decade of upheaval the world has just gone through, such an appeal may well lie in the sweet spot of public sentiment this year.

  49. B.S. Fairman says: Wednesday, March 11, 2020 at 1:42 pm

    So the 2020 campaign will look a little like the 1920 campaign….. “a return to normalcy” was Harding’s slogan with a recent pandemic and recession.

    *****************************************************

    A return to the Superman edict – Truth, Justice and the American Way 🙂

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