Six states’ Democratic primaries: live commentary

Joe Biden is very likely to win the Democratic nomination, with Sanders needing big breaks in today’s primaries. Guest post by Adrian Beaumont

11:50am Nate Silver on Washington’s count

11:40am In Mississippi, Sanders has 14.8% with all precincts in.  Mississippi has a large provisional vote, so Sanders may exceed the 15% threshold for statewide delegates once those votes are tallied.  Biden won every single county in the three M states.

11:32am However, there’s bad news for Sanders in Washington State.  The latest votes put Biden ahead by 34.8% to 33.5%, reversing a 0.2% Sanders lead in yesterday’s counting.  Dave Wasserman has called Washington for Biden.  Washington appeared demographically friendly to Sanders, and he may not be able to win another state-run primary.  There are few delegates to be decided by party-run primaries and caucuses.

11:24am Thursday In good news for Sanders, he’s the winner in North Dakota by a 53-40 margin.  ND was a party-run primary, not state-run.  There were only 14 polling places for the whole state, and just 14,400 votes total.  Left-wing activists are more likely to make up a greater share of turnout in such low-turnout affairs.

4:00pm Idaho CALLED for Biden.  He currently leads by 48-42 with 74% in.

3:53pm If Sanders stays in, next Tuesday is likely to be brutal for him.  Four big states vote: Florida, Ohio, Illinois and Arizona.  Given Biden’s dominance everywhere in Michigan, he is likely to crush Sanders.  14.5% of delegates will be awarded next Tuesday, taking us to 61.5% of all pledged delegates.

3:49pm In the delegate count at The Green Papers, Biden now leads Sanders by 845 to 706.  Overall popular votes are 37.6% Biden, 30.1% Sanders.

3:44pm With 68% reporting in Idaho, Biden leads by 47-42.  The bottom line, no matter what happens in Washington’s late counting, Idaho or North Dakota, is that Biden is dominating with black voters and both higher-educated and lower-educated whites.  Biden will clearly be the Democratic nominee to face Trump in November.

3:30pm With 22% reporting in North Dakota, Sanders leads Biden by 45-34.  But there are only 14 delegates in this small, strongly Republican state.

3:18pm With 50% reporting in Idaho, Biden leads Sanders by 47-41.

2:57pm Biden has won every county in Mississippi and Missouri, and is barely losing two counties in Michigan.  In the 2016 contest against Hillary Clinton, Sanders dominated in rural areas where there were many lower-educated whites.  Not against Biden.

2:50pm In Mississippi, Sanders’ vote has dropped to 14.9% with 97% in.  If his vote stays at that level, he will miss the 15% delegate threshold for statewide delegates.

2:48pm With all counties reporting initial postal votes in Washington, Sanders leads by just 0.2%, 32.7-32.5.  Many of these votes were cast when other candidates were still in.  I don’t think we will get the remaining votes today; we’ll have to wait a week or two for them to come in.

2:16pm In the first results from Idaho, Biden leads by 43-33.

2:14pm Washington uses an all-postal ballot.  Votes that arrive before election day are tallied as soon as polls close.  With an estimated 64% reporting, Sanders and Biden are tied at 32.8% each.

1:52pm Meanwhile in California, Sanders’ lead has dropped to 6.7% today from 7.0% yesterday and 9% on election night last week.

1:38pm Some good news for Sanders: the North Dakota postal vote has him winning by 40-26 over Biden, but Biden is likely to gain when election day votes report.  Meanwhile, Biden leads by 53-39 in Michigan (55% in), 59-34 in Missouri (66% in) and 81-15 in Mississippi (77% in).  If Sanders does not reach 15% in Mississippi, he will not qualify for statewide delegates.

12:17pm Biden is leading by 54-28 in Missouri with 6% reporting.  There’s a large vote for candidates who have dropped out, which should drop as more election day votes are counted.

12:06pm With all polls now closed in Michigan, and Biden 12 points up without much from Detroit (Wayne county), Michigan has been CALLED for Biden.

11:50am With 3% reporting in Mississippi, Biden has an 83-13 lead.  Most of what’s been counted is likely postal votes, which skew to Biden, but that’s a massive margin.

11:46am CNN analyst Harry Enten

11:43am Biden still leading by ten points in Michigan with 10% reporting.  Twitter commentary suggests Sanders is losing white lower-educated precincts that he won against Clinton in 2016.

11:27am Biden leads by 54.4-41.4 in Michigan with 4% reporting.

11:20am Biden leads by 85-11 in the first Mississippi results.

11:13am Remember that Democratic delegates are awarded proportionally with a 15% threshold.  So margins of victory matter, not just winning a state.  A massive win for Biden in Mississippi will earn him many delegates.

11:07am Based on exit polls, Mississippi and Missouri have been CALLED for Biden.

10:42am Wednesday Polls close at 11am AEDT in Missouri, Mississippi and North Dakota.  Michigan has two time zones, with the majority closing at 11am, while the western bit closes at 12pm.  Idaho and Washington close at 2pm.

Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is an honorary associate at the University of Melbourne. His work on electoral matters for The Conversation can be found here, and his own website is here.

Democratic primaries will be held today in Idaho, Michigan, Mississippi, Missouri, North Dakota and Washington State. The result will determine 352 of the 3,979 total pledged delegates (9% of the total). Michigan (125 delegates) and Washington (89) are the two biggest states voting. Polls close Wednesday between 11am and 2pm AEDT.

Last Tuesday, Joe Biden won ten states to four for Bernie Sanders. In the next two days, the two remaining contenders, Mike Bloomberg and Elizabeth Warren, withdrew, leaving a two-candidate contest for the remaining delegates. Biden dominated the south, but also had surprise wins in Minnesota, Massachusetts and Maine.

The delegate count at The Green Papers gives Biden a 681 to 608 lead over Sanders, but this understates Biden’s advantage. Sanders has an advantage with left-wing Democrats and Latinos, but most of the southwestern states, where Latinos have a relatively high share of the population, have now voted.

In 2016, Sanders benefited from lower-educated white voters aversion to Hillary Clinton, something Donald Trump exploited in the general election. However, the Minnesota county results show that Biden performed well in rural regions, helping him to a nine-point statewide win. This implies that Biden has a greater appeal than Clinton to lower-educated whites.

Biden is winning black voters by massive margins, and he is winning both higher-educated and lower-educated whites. There are few states with a significant Latino population left. An exception is Florida, which votes with three other large states next Tuesday. However, Florida’s Latinos are far more conservative than Latinos in the southwest owing to the Cuban Americans. Florida is also demographically elderly. Florida polls have Biden crushing Sanders.

Biden leads Sanders by 51-35 in the RealClearPolitics national average in polls conducted since last Tuesday. Biden leads Sanders by 22 points in Michigan, and has a small lead in Washington, which should be Sanders’ strongest of the six states. In 2016, Sanders defeated Clinton in Michigan after a massive polling error, but he was performing much better then with lower-educated whites.

There’s also bad news for Sanders from California’s late counting, where his lead over Biden has been reduced from nine points on election night to seven. Late counting in California usually skews left, but many moderates did not vote early, withholding their vote until they knew Biden was the moderate candidate.

358 comments on “Six states’ Democratic primaries: live commentary”

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  1. For those excited about getting back to normalcy – can normalcy mitigate against 4+ degrees warming? Is there any cause for optimism here?

  2. stead.
    Ray (UK) says:
    Wednesday, March 11, 2020 at 1:31 pm
    Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez says:

    “There’s no sugar-coating it. Tonight’s a tough night. Tonight’s a tough night electorally,” @AOC says in her Instagram live chat.

    — Julio Ricardo Varela (@julito77) March 11, 2020

    AOC should be rejoicing. The ranks that refused to vote Democratic in 2016 queued up to do so today. They voted for a candidate from the party to which she nominally belongs. Past Democrat and past Republican voters have rolled in numbers to vote for a candidate that is able to defeat Trump.

    If 2016 was an aberration, the voters of the US will try to put things right again this year. Sanders absolutely does not have the electoral grunt to do that. She erred in supporting him. However, since she is voicing her regrets, she will in the usual inverse way be re-assuring all those who did vote for Biden that they made a wise choice. AOC might be cool in the eyes of some. But she is not representative of the broad US electorate. She has diminished herself.

  3. Biden specifically mentions that he wants to thank Sanders and Sanders’s supporters, says that together they can beat Trump. General election pivot is on

    Has a phone call been made?

  4. boerwar

    Sure. You think a useless and pointless debate which takes some bark off Biden is more important than getting rid of Trump.
    But why do you prioritize things in this fashion?

    Bellwether

    In the interest of full transparency. What are people fearful of?

    4 more years of Trump.

  5. Bonza – Given that Biden is more likely than Sanders to defeat Trump, then , yes, I’d say that’s cause for optimism. A Democratic President (backed by a Dem Congress) is far more likely to institute effective climate controls than a climate-denying Republican Party. Indeed, I would guess that a President Biden would be far more effective on this topic (as in other areas) than a President Sanders, simply because he’d be much better placed to work the system. Sanders talks a good game, but it’s always been a genuine concern just how he would turn his rhetoric into reality. Much like someone like Tony Blair will go to his grave knowing that he had done more for working people and the planet, in a practical sense, than Jeremy Corbyn will, so the same is true for Biden and Sanders. Core beliefs are not worth much in politics if you never get into power to put them into action.

  6. Bonza says:
    Wednesday, March 11, 2020 at 1:53 pm
    For those excited about getting back to normalcy – can normalcy mitigate against 4+ degrees warming? Is there any cause for optimism here?

    Defeating Trump and undoing the Republican majority in the Senate….shifting State legislatures and Governor results…..these are certainly a start with respect to averting dangerous climate change.

  7. Bonza

    The perfect is the enemy of the good.

    Trump is the #1 Global Climate Wrecker. Bar none.

    Whatever ever other solutions are required, getting rid of Trump is Number One.

  8. It’s funny, a few weeks ago I saw Biden as the absolute also-ran out of the entire field. But I’m prone to getting it wrong all the time over politics. I spend half my life in a state of semi-depression over the election of the Trumps, Bolsonaros, Johnsons, Dutertes, Putins and Morrisons of this world. All I’d like to see is a marginally better world, attention to climate change and restoration of a little equality, but apparently it’s too much to ask. The computer says no. So I’ll just lay-low on my acreage that miraculously didn’t burn in January, try and dodge covid-19 and take heart from my wonderful family. Forgive me if I’m unable to get excited about the prospect of Biden, he and his centrist Democrats and those that only wish to maintain the status quo bore me absolutely shitless.

  9. Biden getting some good press about his victory speech tonight – calm, measured, no triumphalism,, reaching out to Sanders and his supporters, and pivoting to the general election. On the basis of tonight, Biden looks good and ready to take Trump in the main event.

  10. Bellwether
    “Forgive me if I’m unable to get excited about the prospect of Biden, he and his centrist Democrats and those that only wish to maintain the status quo bore me absolutely shitless.”

    Opinion noted. Personally, I think America is ready for a boring President.

  11. Bellwether says:
    Wednesday, March 11, 2020 at 2:31 pm
    It’s funny, a few weeks ago I saw Biden as the absolute also-ran out of the entire field. But I’m prone to getting it wrong all the time over politics. I spend half my life in a state of semi-depression over the election of the Trumps, Bolsonaros, Johnsons, Dutertes, Putins and Morrisons of this world. All I’d like to see is a marginally better world, attention to climate change and restoration of a little equality, but apparently it’s too much to ask. The computer says no. So I’ll just lay-low on my acreage that miraculously didn’t burn in January, try and dodge covid-19 and take heart from my wonderful family. Forgive me if I’m unable to get excited about the prospect of Biden, he and his centrist Democrats and those that only wish to maintain the status quo bore me absolutely shitless.

    You can’t be serious. Your own excitement? Is that all there is?

  12. RI @ #217 Wednesday, March 11th, 2020 – 2:37 pm

    Bellwether says:
    Wednesday, March 11, 2020 at 2:31 pm
    It’s funny, a few weeks ago I saw Biden as the absolute also-ran out of the entire field. But I’m prone to getting it wrong all the time over politics. I spend half my life in a state of semi-depression over the election of the Trumps, Bolsonaros, Johnsons, Dutertes, Putins and Morrisons of this world. All I’d like to see is a marginally better world, attention to climate change and restoration of a little equality, but apparently it’s too much to ask. The computer says no. So I’ll just lay-low on my acreage that miraculously didn’t burn in January, try and dodge covid-19 and take heart from my wonderful family. Forgive me if I’m unable to get excited about the prospect of Biden, he and his centrist Democrats and those that only wish to maintain the status quo bore me absolutely shitless.

    You can’t be serious. Your own excitement? Is that all there is?

    Of course not, don’t be stupid.

  13. Nathaniel Rakich, 538 live blog

    As of 5 p.m. Pacific today, Washington state was reporting that more than 1.8 million voters had returned their ballots. Some are undoubtedly still in the mail as well, since ballots can be postmarked as late as Election Day and still count. I’d expect a final vote total approaching 2 million. So far, just over a million votes have been counted, so Washington is about halfway reporting

  14. @ a r

    Washington was a caucus state in 2016
    __________________________________________________________

    Tulsi Gabbard, the third candidate left in this race, is losing in every state to people who’ve dropped out.

    MO: 5th place
    MI: 6th
    MS: 5th
    ID: 7th
    WA: 7th
    ND: 7th

    She has not held a public campaign event in a primary state since March 3.

    — Dave Weigel (@daveweigel) March 11, 2020

  15. Bell

    You can’t be serious. Your own excitement? Is that all there is?

    Of course not, don’t be stupid.

    Then why do you put it at the centre of your motivation and your action?

  16. Bellwether, it’s good to see a modicum of self-reflection on your part. Though it seems as though you still don’t get it about Joe Biden cf Bernie Sanders.

    Sure, Sanders talks the bigger game and that ticks all your boxes, however, politics is the art of the possible and a lot of us realise that Bernie Sanders, while being able to talk the talk, was never going to be able to walk the walk, should he have not been destroyed by the Trump machine along the way to Pennsylvania Avenue.

    Surely you must realise, as a family man, that you can’t always get what you want, and nor can your kids, you all have to meet somewhere in the middle if you want to achieve anything and go forward as a unified and stable family unit.

    So it is with politics, and especially in America right now. People are voting with their heads, not their hearts. They are voting for Joe Biden because he is a unifier, not another revolutionary, like Trump and Sanders are. It seems to me they just want to elect someone whose motto will be, ‘Steady as she goes’. Surely you can understand that much and think that’s an okay goal?

    Anyway, Joe Biden has already dropped hints that he’s not going to be the vanilla POTUS (I hope and pray), that many dismiss him as. He wants to do gun control and take on the NRA. He wants to do Climate Change action. He wants to do good jobs with decent pay. And I bet he takes along a lot of the people who also ran with him for the nomination. They may be ‘Establishment’ Democrats, but they are NOT Republicans! They have hearts, as well as hard heads when necessary

    Surely you can get on board with that?

  17. Politics should be boring. Boring means everything is plugging along relatively okay. It’s when things get interesting that it’s time to worry.

  18. Biden winning with blacks, white working class, absolutely smashing Sanders everywhere. It is done and dusted.

    Forget the centrist mantra from sore Bernie supporters. Biden is a decent centre left candidate.

    Very pathetic to see lefties and Trump fanboys joining up and using same attack lines.

  19. Well it’s official: the world will not prevent a temperature rise of more than 2 degrees Celsius. Even if Joe Biden wins the presidency, nothing effective will be done about global heating in time to prevent cataclysmic scenarios. In addition, the Democrats have handed the Republicans a great opportunity to win a lot of elections this year.

  20. Warren must have been doing pretty well in Washington before she dropped out. In the two districts that cover Seattle she has got almost 15%.

  21. Nicholas
    “In addition, the Democrats have handed the Republicans a great opportunity to win a lot of elections this year.”

    What are you talking about? This is not a rhetorical question. I honestly don’t know what you’re talking about.

  22. You are completely feckless Propeller Cap Boy.

    If you want to trumpet the virtues of critical thinking, how about actually applying some of that instead of projecting like the ‘spoilt petite bourgeois boy having a socialist tanty moment’ you clearly are.

  23. “ I am just here to watch inevitable far-left unhinging.”

    So am I.

    Young Nicky has started the ball rolling.

    Come on down, Firefly. Come on down, Comrade Commissar Clem.

  24. Kakuru,

    The election in November elects Senators and judges and dog catchers etc.

    So. Nicky is propping that the Republicans will win a lot of these contests because Biden will be the Democratic candidate for President.

    It’s bullshit. But, Nicky and all the Bernie little Bro’s of PB are distraught and hysterical.

  25. “ Don’t forget, guytaur! ”

    Guytaur occupies his own universe. Bless him, he’s welcome to that space.

    I think he’s unlikely to invade our space and attempt to convince us all of his alternative reality, now that it is clear that the Bernie revolution has gone bust – at least in this universe.

  26. ‘Nicholas says:
    Wednesday, March 11, 2020 at 3:24 pm

    Well it’s official: the world will not prevent a temperature rise of more than 2 degrees Celsius. Even if Joe Biden wins the presidency, nothing effective will be done about global heating in time to prevent cataclysmic scenarios. In addition, the Democrats have handed the Republicans a great opportunity to win a lot of elections this year.’

    These sorts of political judgements completely undercut the credibility of your MMT policy discussions.

  27. Andrew_Earlwood says: Wednesday, March 11, 2020 at 3:35 pm

    You are completely feckless Propeller Cap Boy.

    If you want to trumpet the virtues of critical thinking, how about actually applying some of that instead of projecting like the ‘spoilt petite bourgeois boy having a socialist tanty moment’ you clearly are.

    ************************************************************************

    I am still sitting on this exchange …..

    Nicholas says: Monday, March 11, 2019 at 3:31 pm

    Bernie Sanders will win the nomination comfortably and he will win the general election comfortably. That will come as a shock to Poll Bludger centrists but it will not be surprising to anyone who follows American politics closely

    ME – I am keeping this one

    Nicholas says: Monday, March 11, 2019 at 4:01 pm

    I would be pleased if next year you have the graciousness to remember this prediction when it comes true but I fear that you will forget your promise amid the deluge of Trump items that you post here.

  28. “So. Nicky is propping that the Republicans will win a lot of these contests because Biden will be the Democratic candidate for President.”

    Got it. Thanks GG.

    I was of the opinion that Sanders would be a drag on the Dem ticket in Nov. He really turns off suburban and exurban voters. But I’m a centrist brainwashed by the Establishment… so what the heck would I know?

  29. For those excited about getting back to normalcy – can normalcy mitigate against 4+ degrees warming? Is there any cause for optimism here?

    Yes. Climate change was an issue taken very seriously before tantrums became the default discourse. And calling everybody else Climate Deniers or insisting CC can only be tackled with full socialism did not aid the cause one bit.

    And on the general point, surely I am not the only one here who thinks that normalcy, defined as not having a hard right fascist with white supremacist tendencies in the White House anymore is actually something to be enthusiastic about?

    I’m tired. Everything has to be a thing nowadays. While I know there was never a time when it was all civil discourse and rainbows, I do fondly remember the time when it wasn’t the case when absolutely anything would set someone off. Like I am tired of every debate being one of good and evil. I’m tired of Star Wars movies being fought over as a proxy for a bigger culture war. I’m tired of everything being “controversial”, I am tired of doxxing and hardcore social media harassment being treated as a valid strategy and it being dismissed as saying “Pee pee poo poo” in your mentions. It was nice to have more people engaged and switched on but I wish it didn’t come in the form of whatever monkey’s paw curse this is.

  30. AE,

    I’m expecting Guytaur to announce shortly that a Biden victory was what he always thought would happen and that Bernie is unelectable.

  31. I don’t know why but reading some of these comments gets me thinking of the crowd in the witch scene from Monty Python’s Holy Grail.

  32. “It is very unnerving to be proven wrong, particularly when you are really right and the person who is really wrong is proving you wrong and proving himself, wrongly, right.”

    ― Lemony Snicket, The Blank Book

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