11:50am Nate Silver on Washington’s count
Haven't looked at *every* county in Washington but I've looked at a lot:
On average, Biden is doing 22-24% better in new returns than in the ones released last night (depending on how you weight the average). And Bernie is doing 5-7% better.
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) March 12, 2020
11:40am In Mississippi, Sanders has 14.8% with all precincts in. Mississippi has a large provisional vote, so Sanders may exceed the 15% threshold for statewide delegates once those votes are tallied. Biden won every single county in the three M states.
11:32am However, there’s bad news for Sanders in Washington State. The latest votes put Biden ahead by 34.8% to 33.5%, reversing a 0.2% Sanders lead in yesterday’s counting. Dave Wasserman has called Washington for Biden. Washington appeared demographically friendly to Sanders, and he may not be able to win another state-run primary. There are few delegates to be decided by party-run primaries and caucuses.
11:24am Thursday In good news for Sanders, he’s the winner in North Dakota by a 53-40 margin. ND was a party-run primary, not state-run. There were only 14 polling places for the whole state, and just 14,400 votes total. Left-wing activists are more likely to make up a greater share of turnout in such low-turnout affairs.
4:00pm Idaho CALLED for Biden. He currently leads by 48-42 with 74% in.
3:53pm If Sanders stays in, next Tuesday is likely to be brutal for him. Four big states vote: Florida, Ohio, Illinois and Arizona. Given Biden’s dominance everywhere in Michigan, he is likely to crush Sanders. 14.5% of delegates will be awarded next Tuesday, taking us to 61.5% of all pledged delegates.
3:49pm In the delegate count at The Green Papers, Biden now leads Sanders by 845 to 706. Overall popular votes are 37.6% Biden, 30.1% Sanders.
3:44pm With 68% reporting in Idaho, Biden leads by 47-42. The bottom line, no matter what happens in Washington’s late counting, Idaho or North Dakota, is that Biden is dominating with black voters and both higher-educated and lower-educated whites. Biden will clearly be the Democratic nominee to face Trump in November.
3:30pm With 22% reporting in North Dakota, Sanders leads Biden by 45-34. But there are only 14 delegates in this small, strongly Republican state.
3:18pm With 50% reporting in Idaho, Biden leads Sanders by 47-41.
2:57pm Biden has won every county in Mississippi and Missouri, and is barely losing two counties in Michigan. In the 2016 contest against Hillary Clinton, Sanders dominated in rural areas where there were many lower-educated whites. Not against Biden.
2:50pm In Mississippi, Sanders’ vote has dropped to 14.9% with 97% in. If his vote stays at that level, he will miss the 15% delegate threshold for statewide delegates.
2:48pm With all counties reporting initial postal votes in Washington, Sanders leads by just 0.2%, 32.7-32.5. Many of these votes were cast when other candidates were still in. I don’t think we will get the remaining votes today; we’ll have to wait a week or two for them to come in.
2:16pm In the first results from Idaho, Biden leads by 43-33.
2:14pm Washington uses an all-postal ballot. Votes that arrive before election day are tallied as soon as polls close. With an estimated 64% reporting, Sanders and Biden are tied at 32.8% each.
1:52pm Meanwhile in California, Sanders’ lead has dropped to 6.7% today from 7.0% yesterday and 9% on election night last week.
1:38pm Some good news for Sanders: the North Dakota postal vote has him winning by 40-26 over Biden, but Biden is likely to gain when election day votes report. Meanwhile, Biden leads by 53-39 in Michigan (55% in), 59-34 in Missouri (66% in) and 81-15 in Mississippi (77% in). If Sanders does not reach 15% in Mississippi, he will not qualify for statewide delegates.
12:17pm Biden is leading by 54-28 in Missouri with 6% reporting. There’s a large vote for candidates who have dropped out, which should drop as more election day votes are counted.
12:06pm With all polls now closed in Michigan, and Biden 12 points up without much from Detroit (Wayne county), Michigan has been CALLED for Biden.
11:50am With 3% reporting in Mississippi, Biden has an 83-13 lead. Most of what’s been counted is likely postal votes, which skew to Biden, but that’s a massive margin.
11:46am CNN analyst Harry Enten
Biden's got a strength in rural areas across the north (MI included) that Clinton never had… A lot of Sanders' strength in 2016 continues to look like it was anti-Clinton.
— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) March 11, 2020
11:43am Biden still leading by ten points in Michigan with 10% reporting. Twitter commentary suggests Sanders is losing white lower-educated precincts that he won against Clinton in 2016.
11:27am Biden leads by 54.4-41.4 in Michigan with 4% reporting.
11:20am Biden leads by 85-11 in the first Mississippi results.
11:13am Remember that Democratic delegates are awarded proportionally with a 15% threshold. So margins of victory matter, not just winning a state. A massive win for Biden in Mississippi will earn him many delegates.
11:07am Based on exit polls, Mississippi and Missouri have been CALLED for Biden.
10:42am Wednesday Polls close at 11am AEDT in Missouri, Mississippi and North Dakota. Michigan has two time zones, with the majority closing at 11am, while the western bit closes at 12pm. Idaho and Washington close at 2pm.
Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is an honorary associate at the University of Melbourne. His work on electoral matters for The Conversation can be found here, and his own website is here.
Democratic primaries will be held today in Idaho, Michigan, Mississippi, Missouri, North Dakota and Washington State. The result will determine 352 of the 3,979 total pledged delegates (9% of the total). Michigan (125 delegates) and Washington (89) are the two biggest states voting. Polls close Wednesday between 11am and 2pm AEDT.
Last Tuesday, Joe Biden won ten states to four for Bernie Sanders. In the next two days, the two remaining contenders, Mike Bloomberg and Elizabeth Warren, withdrew, leaving a two-candidate contest for the remaining delegates. Biden dominated the south, but also had surprise wins in Minnesota, Massachusetts and Maine.
The delegate count at The Green Papers gives Biden a 681 to 608 lead over Sanders, but this understates Biden’s advantage. Sanders has an advantage with left-wing Democrats and Latinos, but most of the southwestern states, where Latinos have a relatively high share of the population, have now voted.
In 2016, Sanders benefited from lower-educated white voters aversion to Hillary Clinton, something Donald Trump exploited in the general election. However, the Minnesota county results show that Biden performed well in rural regions, helping him to a nine-point statewide win. This implies that Biden has a greater appeal than Clinton to lower-educated whites.
Biden is winning black voters by massive margins, and he is winning both higher-educated and lower-educated whites. There are few states with a significant Latino population left. An exception is Florida, which votes with three other large states next Tuesday. However, Florida’s Latinos are far more conservative than Latinos in the southwest owing to the Cuban Americans. Florida is also demographically elderly. Florida polls have Biden crushing Sanders.
Biden leads Sanders by 51-35 in the RealClearPolitics national average in polls conducted since last Tuesday. Biden leads Sanders by 22 points in Michigan, and has a small lead in Washington, which should be Sanders’ strongest of the six states. In 2016, Sanders defeated Clinton in Michigan after a massive polling error, but he was performing much better then with lower-educated whites.
There’s also bad news for Sanders from California’s late counting, where his lead over Biden has been reduced from nine points on election night to seven. Late counting in California usually skews left, but many moderates did not vote early, withholding their vote until they knew Biden was the moderate candidate.
Biden seems to be smashing it at the minute.
Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
·
1m
Welp I guess people weren’t chicken to poll Michigan after all LOL. Here are all polls in the past 48 hours:
Biden margin vs. Sanders:
AtlasIntel +8
YouGov +13
Monmouth +15
Data for Progress +21
Mitchell Research +22
EPIC-MRA +24
Concord +30
Swayable +34
Target Insyght +41
Follow-ups from that Nate Silver tweet:
Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
There is… a lot of disagreement here. But Michigan’s been a notoriously tough state to poll and I’d rather have disagreement than herding.
1:15pm · 10 Mar 2020 · Twitter Web App
Jonathan Cohn @CitizenCohn
Replying to @NateSilver538
Any idea why Michigan is so tough to poll?
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Replying to @CitizenCohn
People from Michigan are too busy being awesome to answer polls probably.
How long is Bernie going to stay in if he doesn’t do well tomorrow?
Does he hang on until next Tuesday where there are a lot of delegates up for grabs?
The earliest that Biden is likely to tick over the magically 1991 delegates is April 28th when the mid-Atlantic states go. But I think the pressure is going to be on before then.
BSF
I am convinced that Sanders believes that the single most important thing in the US is to get rid of Trump.
I therefore believe that Sanders will show his true integrity and fold on Thursday and throw his full weight behind Biden.
Sanders needs to stay in the race until June and accumulate as many delegates as possible. Even if Biden gets more delegates, there is a not inconsequential chance of Biden having a major neurological incident before the convention, or of embarrassing himself so spectacularly that the party will need someone else to lead them.
Biden is an exceptionally risky candidate. His brain is addled and confused. He is a dishonest, corrupt, and inept rambling conman – and he has the gall to present himself as an ALTERNATIVE to Trump! That is tragic.
Even if Biden wins, he would govern like a Republican, which defeats the purpose of having a Democratic Party. Biden has a long record of supporting GOP policies in everything from economics to social policy to foreign policy.
The decision to drop out is usually decided for a candidate by factors such as money drying up, staff quitting, supporters moving on etc. but, with a base of extremely loyal followers and quite a good fundraising machine that taps into that base, there might not be that push to drop out any time soon (regardless of how Quixotic the campaign becomes) and there is also the ideological justification that might be pushed that “all states in the primaries should be given a voice” and that he should stay in out of “respect” for the May-June contests.
Remember: this is a “movement” candidacy – in the same vein as past candidates like Eugene McCarthy, Dennis Kucinich, Ron Paul etc. – their rules and priorities are a bit different than a regular politician seeking the nomination.
Of course, all of this is putting the cart before the horse. While the odds are overwhelmingly in Biden’s favour at this point, I don’t want to “curse” it by prematurely declaring him the winner.
Nicholas
Bernie could infarct. Except that he is godlike.
RL
True.
Who could possibly forget the Naderites who gave the Bush Family a decade to trash the planet at the expense of the World’s Climate and Al Gore?
Bernie has the resources to compete in every primary, and he should do that – not just because of the chance of Biden imploding, but also because Bernie’s campaign develops grassroots movements and networks that will be critical to the country in the years ahead.
N
You do realize that the first order issue is not the ideological outcomes sought by yourself and sundry Sanderistas but to get rid of the Monster in the White House?
Or maybe you don’t get that?
Nicholas preferred trump over clinton at the last election.
He’s dug up his old red maga hat and donned it again
Vive the revolution
Nicholas says:
Tuesday, March 10, 2020 at 5:01 pm
Sanders needs to stay in the race until June and accumulate as many delegates as possible. Even if Biden gets more delegates, there is a not inconsequential chance of Biden having a major neurological incident before the convention, or of embarrassing himself so spectacularly that the party will need someone else to lead them.
Biden is an exceptionally risky candidate. His brain is addled and confused. He is a dishonest, corrupt, and inept rambling conman – and he has the gall to present himself as an ALTERNATIVE to Trump! That is tragic.
Even if Biden wins, he would govern like a Republican, which defeats the purpose of having a Democratic Party. Biden has a long record of supporting GOP policies in everything from economics to social policy to foreign policy.
So you have some reservations about Biden. I’m shocked, I tell you, shocked.
B.S. Fairman @ #3 Tuesday, March 10th, 2020 – 4:26 pm
Sanders should go head to head in debate with Biden and not even consider pulling out until after the following Tuesday’s primaries (if those results prove to be bad for him). He’d be totally nuts to even consider going before then, what’s the big hurry?
When do the results start rolling in?
Tomorrow morning?
Results from Wednesday lunchtime beginning with exit polls.
Biden ahead in most of the large states this week and next week (eg Florida).
I have a sinking feeling Biden’s cognitive decline will become a bigger issue than many here are willing to acknowledge, but that he’ll already be the nominee by then.
Oh the crap about Biden’s “cognitive decline” is definitely going to be brought up by Trump. Just as all of Bernie’s health issues (real or imagined) would be too.
It’s how he handles it and how voters react to it that matters. It’s not the going to be the first election where the Republicans have thrown the kitchen sink at the Dem nominee.
Bonza @ #16 Tuesday, March 10th, 2020 – 6:38 pm
Hard to avoid the elephant in the room, but that doesn’t stop some people.
Even if Biden was the candidate and had a major health issue before the convention (or Bernie if he was going to get the nod from the voters), the DNC is able to substitute a candidate. The DNC rules allow this…. like when Eagleton had to withdraw in 1972 as VP nominee because he was a fruitcake who had EST in the early 60’s (look it up what happen if you don’t know about it).
So Bernie staying in, just in case Biden has a health issue is rubbish. None of Biden’s delegates would jump ship to Bernie (or vice versa) .
Not to mention he is no pinnacle of health either. This is the problem with the Sanders supporter premise here. The alternative is not any better on this front.
That’s the risk of having your only two remaining viable candidates be pushing 80. If only some younger candidates had been in the field too… oh well…
I am mildly amused that Trumps idea to pay workers who are unable to work when it is not their fault sounds a little bit like…. Socialism….. ahhhhhhh……..
Just like how Bush was the president who did the largest nationalisations in history!
RL – Gabbard is still running….. She is in her 30s…. oh…. so young to have ended her political career :).
the next debate should go some way to helping the public sort out the two candidates respective cognitive clines. and, indeed, what is the big hurry ?
-a.v.
Honestly Gabbard was better off staying out and endorsing Sanders, then positioning herself to be the spiritual successor to the movement in 2024/28. She’s dead in the water (everyone forgets she’s still in) and she doesn’t even have her congressional seat to go back to after this term.
I think that whoever the candidate is will have a lot of pressure not just to choose someone younger as their running mate but also to announce them, sooner rather than later. While I wouldn’t expect it next week, I don’t expect it to wait until the week of the convention either. It’s not unfair for voters to want to know sooner who the potential accidental 27th POTUS could be should they vote Dem – moreso than normal (even moreso than 2016 when this was also a real concern too.)
I am expecting Biden to choose some much younger and run as double headed ticket. Maybe Harris or Beto.
‘alfred venison says:
Tuesday, March 10, 2020 at 7:00 pm
the next debate should go some way to helping the public sort out the two candidates respective cognitive clines. and, indeed, what is the big hurry ?
-a.v.’
The sooner the Dems are united behind Biden the better. Sanders sucked oxygen from Clinton and he is doing the same to Biden. In both cases, Trump is the beneficiary.
That’s the hurry.
since both forerunners are in the highest risk category for corona virus fatality, it is in the democratic party’s interest for both of them to stay in the race in case one or the other pops off before the convention. better to have in the wings an understudy half the troupe doesn’t like, than a crisis of credibility in an election year, this election year. -a.v.
sucks the air out is a load of crap argument i don’t buy one bit: its fundamentally anti-democratic. -a.v.
“sucks the air out is a load of crap argument i don’t buy one bit: its fundamentally anti-democratic. -a.v.”
You might think it isn’t true, but “it’s anti-democratic” doesn’t disprove it happens.
That’s an argument to ignore it, if it is a real thing.
its a competition. there is no reason for the runner-up to pullout, there is reason for the front runner to toughen up. sucking air out of clinton’s campaign is crap. -a.v.
Sanders shows no signs of cognitive decline. Biden shows marked deterioration in his cognitive functioning. It will be a major vulnerability for him.
So will his serial lying about his policy record, his many fabricated stories (like claiming to have been arrested for trying to meet Nelson Mandela, and claiming to have been active in the civil rights movement), and the fact that he embodies “the swamp” of Washington D.C. better than anyone. The fact that he has many times advocated cuts to Social Security will be exploited mercilessly by Trump (and deservedly so).
Biden and Trump are both rambling conmen, but here’s the difference: Trump actually has a talent for mockery and bombast. Trump’s attacks and memes find their mark. Biden will be ineffectual against Trump. All of the major character attack lines that Democrats want to use against Trump – that he is corrupt, that he abuses women – are also true in some form of Biden. Biden therefore won’t be a credible messenger for those attacks.
Biden’s family has been cashing in on Biden’s political career for decades.
Many women have accused Biden of touching them inappropriately.
Democratic attack lines about Trump’s character defects will have no credibility if Biden is the nominee.
Centrists appear to be on track to hand another election to Republicans. Bravo!
I can see why the extreme left have to delude themselves into thinking that they cannot possibly do any damage but the possible consequences – another four years of Trump – should get through the carapace of the hardiest comrade eventually.
Sanders is a centre-left social democrat. There is nothing extremely left-wing about him.
Centrists need to develop some self-awareness for a change, and recognise that what they are doing is reckless and selfish. They are not thinking about the impacts of nominating Biden, which are: 1. He wins and governs as a Republican; or more likely 2. He loses and also drags down Democrats in House, Senate, and state elections.
The pragmatic choice is Sanders.
and besides, in a marathon race like this you never know when your next 11th hour endorsement will come from.
like working family’s party, switching from warren to sanders earlier today:-
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/09/working-families-party-endorses-bernie-sanders-124267
or like neil young, coming out for sanders today:-
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/mar/10/neil-young-endorses-bernie-sanders-every-point-he-makes-is-what-i-believe-in
why the unseemly haste to close down the race before every eligible vote in every state has been cast & counted, eh? -a.v.
Ah The Working Families Party. I am old enough to remember when they were dirty neoliberal centrists for not endorsing the Chosen One.
So let’s get this straight. Ohbiden doesn’t know which office he is running for. He can’t distinguish between his sister and his wife, he doesn’t know what day it is, or which state he is in and he doesn’t remember his own name. But apart from that he is the perfect nominee. Some of you lot need to get on You Tube to see this stuff.
Oh yeah, one more thing. Hunter says hello from Kiev.
Well this conversation has gone down the toilet.
Such wonderful “issues voters”
The Dems don’t like Sanders.
He is getting trashed in the primaries.
The only two open questions are these:
1. When Sanders pulls out. He left this too late for Clinton, giving Trump an additional advantage.
2. What damage he and his acolytes will do to Biden on the way through. As much as possible as we can see from this thread. (It is all very reminiscent of Nader giving the Bush Family a leg up and knocking of Gore.)
Excuses like Biden is no good don’t wash it. He is light years better than Trump.
Excuses like Biden did something twenty years ago don’t wash either. Biden is light years better than Trump.
Excuses like Sanders has a crook ticker don’t wash either. Biden is light years better than Trump.
My guess is that Sanders will try to destroy Biden and when it is too late acknowledge defeat so that he is not blamed for yet another four years of Trump. Sanders has form on this.
As for his extreme supporters they will probably help give Trump another four years by taking their bat and ball home and doing the Grand Sulk. Just like they did last time.
I may have to reconsider my comment that Nicholas was not a Bernie Bro’s
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/09/opinion/joe-biden-never-trump.html
Latest polls
Florida
Biden 55
Bernie 29
https://www.pointblankpolitical.com/2020-fl-dem-primary-poll/
Must be those old farts and Cuban exiles hating Bernie lauding Fidel, but hey, the young uns’ will come out for Bernie
BoerWar – you may well be correct about how Sanders’ supporters will react once reality dawns on them that their candidate has yet again fallen short. The good news this year is that there appear to be only half as many people voting for him in the first place.
(For the record, my preferences were 1. Warren, 2. Sanders, 3. Biden).
I do not think the pro-Bernie comments here are at all realistic. So Bernie built a movement – so did Trump. Democracy does not have to be smart, but you have to respect its verdicts. Bernie was outmaneuvered by all the centrist Democrat candidates withdrawing before Super Tuesday. You can call it an ambush if you like. But Biden won the day. He didn’t stuff ballot boxes, he won the vote – clearly.
As for Biden being too old, yes he probably is. But that didn’t stop the Republicans electing Reagan for two terms. He was probably in worse mental shape than Biden. So long as Biden brings with him a younger, sharp team the system will work.
Trump brought his mob with him, and it has been gangster rule ever since. Any Bernie bros who say they prefer Trump to Biden are delusional. Another term of Trump will bankrupt the USA.
Take that lefties!
https://twitter.com/i/status/1237174846355841024
And in the Rust Belt – Bernie eating Joementum’s dust
Pennsylvania
Biden 59
Bernie 31
Michigan
Biden 54
Bernie 41
Wisconsin
Biden 49
Bernie 38
https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/fwvdnnbigm/20200308_yahoo_primary_crosstabs.pdf
sprocket_ @ #41 Tuesday, March 10th, 2020 – 9:14 pm
Thanks for the apology!
Hugoaugogo @ #43 Tuesday, March 10th, 2020 – 6:19 pm
Plus Biden seems to be drawing out the independents and disaffected voters who may have voted Republican, but now want to vote Democrat if the nominee is a sensible, stable person, just to get rid of Trump.
I don’t know how “Joementum” caught on with the Biden campaign but it’s weird to me because it will always remind me of back when Joe Lieberman used the portmanteau for his failed run in 2004.
Ah, Lieberman, now there’s somebody who you could genuinely say would have governed like a Republican.