2:35pm Friday Warren has dropped out, leaving a two-candidate race between Sanders and Biden. The delegate count at The Green Papers currently gives Biden a 671-599 lead over Sanders, from popular votes of 35.1% Biden, 28.7% Sanders. In California, Sanders has an 8.4% lead over Biden with over 3 million votes remaining, but some of these will be Republican primary votes. Late counting in California skews more left the longer it goes.
2:19pm Thursday Last night, Bloomberg withdrew from the contest and endorsed Biden. No decision has yet been made by Warren. In California, Sanders leads by 8.7% with all election day precincts reporting. We should know approximately how many outstanding votes are left tomorrow.
9:53pm Conversation article up. Biden is likely to win ten states to four for Sanders, and has a 102-delegate lead in The Green Papers count. In 2016, Clinton had little appeal to lower-educated whites, and that’s likely why Sanders was competitive. But Biden has more appeal to the lower-educated than Clinton. Once moderate rivals withdrew, he consolidated the moderate vote.
8:37pm With 79% of election day precincts counted in California, Sanders leads Biden by 31.8% to 22.8%. California takes FOUR weeks to count all its votes, so there’s lots of late counting to look forward to!
7:32pm With almost all votes counted in the Israeli election, the right bloc lost a seat, so Netanyahu will be three seats short of a majority. It’s right 58 out of 120, left 55, Yisrael Beiteinu seven.
7:27pm The California Secretary of State now has 64% of precincts reporting, and Sanders is almost 10% ahead of Biden.
6:00pm Texas CALLED for Biden.
4:15pm Biden up to a 1.8% lead in Texas, and the Needle now gives him a 70% chance to win.
4:06pm Biden overtakes Sanders in Texas. He’s 0.4% ahead with 60% of election day precincts in. The Needle gives Biden a 56% chance to win Texas.
4:05pm The NY Times shows 23% of California’s Election Day precincts have already reported, but the California Secretary of State (the official results service) says only 4%.
3:47pm With 54% of election day votes reporting in Texas, Sanders leads by 1.2%. The Needle still sees this as 50-50 between Sanders and Biden.
3:21pm Dave Wasserman has called Texas for Biden, but the NY Times Needle says it’s 50-50 with 34% reporting. Sanders has a 3.6% lead.
3:18pm Massachusetts officially CALLED for Biden. With 65% reporting, he has 33.4%, Sanders 26.7% and Warren 22.1%.
3:10pm With 93% of election day votes in in North Carolina, Biden’s lead is now almost 19 points, up from seven before election day votes.
3:03pm California not called for Sanders, but it looks good for hime in exit polls. Biden likely the only other candidate who breaks the 15% delegate threshold statewide.
2:47pm Minnesota CALLED for Biden. He leads by eight points with 57% reporting. Sanders was supposed to win here.
2:45pm With 43% reporting in Alabama, Sanders is at 16.2%, close to the 15% delegate threshold. Falling below 15% would be a disaster for Sanders.
2:34pm Sanders has won Utah, a stronghold for Republicans where the small Democratic electorate is progressive.
2:30pm In Texas, Sanders leads Biden by 5.6% with 23% of election day precincts in. The NY Times needle has Biden very slightly ahead.
2:25pm Dave Wasserman projects Elizabeth Warren will finish third in her home state of Massachusetts, behind Biden (first) and Sanders (second).
2:15pm While I was out for lunch, Biden was CALLED the winner in Arkansas, Oklahoma and Tennessee, giving him six state wins. Sanders won Colorado, mainly due a split early vote. Early voting dominates in that state. Biden currently leads in Minnesota and Massachusetts, which Sanders was supposed to win.
1:01pm The NY Times needle gives Biden a 68% chance of winning Texas although Sanders currently leads by 6.6%.
12:58pm As the Election Day vote comes through in North Carolina, Biden increases his lead. He’s now leading in NC by 11% with 29% in.
12:45pm In Virginia, where the election day vote was virtually all voters, Biden leads Sanders by 54-23 with 96% reporting.
12:34pm Maybe early voting will stop Biden from routing Sanders. Biden is only up by seven points over Sanders in North Carolina with 12% of Election Day precincts reporting. Biden not doing so well in votes cast before South Carolina and the withdrawals.
12:18pm With 66% reporting in Virginia, Biden is crushing Sanders by 30 points.
12:15pm Polls in Arkansas close at 12:30pm, then it’s Colorado and Minnesota at 1pm, Utah at 2pm and finally California at 3pm.
12:10pm As regards Texas, a small part of the state is in the Mountain Time zone and doesn’t close til 1pm AEDT. Exit polls will be released then.
12:06pm Alabama CALLED for Biden, while the other 12pm states are uncalled. In Massachusetts, it’s a close three-way race between Biden, Sanders and Warren (it’s Warren’s home state).
11:57am Biden is over 20% in the first Vermont results. If he stays above 15% there, he gets delegates, which Hillary Clinton was unable to do in 2016.
11:49am Biden has a 55-23 lead over Sanders in Virginia with 32% in.
11:40am Count in Virginia is already up to 22%, and it’s Biden by a crushing 54-24 over Sanders with nobody else close to clearing 15%.
11:34am CNN CALLS North Carolina for Biden based on a large exit poll lead. This is looking better and better for Biden.
11:27am With 1% reporting in Virginia, Biden leads Sanders by 51-25. Everyone else is well below the 15% delegate threshold.
11:24am The next polls to close are North Carolina at 11:30am AEDT, then Alabama, Maine, Massachusetts, Oklahoma, Tennessee and Texas at 12pm.
11:08am Sanders CALLED the winner in his home state of Vermont, but the exit polls suggest Biden will beat the 15% threshold there, restricting Sanders’ delegate advantage.
11:01am Biden CALLED the winner in Virginia by CNN based on exit polls. He has a 63-18 lead over Sanders with black voters (27% of the electorate) and a 43-26 lead with whites (63% of electorate).
10:20am Wednesday With 94% counted in the Israeli election, right-wing parties have 59 seats (up four since the September 2019 election) and left-wing parties 54 (down three). Likud is the biggest party with a 36-32 lead over Blue & White, reversing the 33-32 deficit last September. It appears that Netanyahu’s coalition will be two seats short of a majority.
Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is an honorary associate at the University of Melbourne. His work on electoral matters for The Conversation can be found here, and his own website is here.
Fourteen states vote in the Super Tuesday Democratic primaries tomorrow, in which 1,357 of the 3,979 total pledged delegates are awarded (34% of all delegates). Delegates are awarded proportionally to vote share, but with a high 15% threshold that applies to both statewide delegates and Congressional District (CD) delegates. The more Democratic-leaning a CD is, the more delegates it receives. Polls close between 11am and 3pm AEDT.
A few days ago, it appeared likely that Bernie Sanders would come out of Super Tuesday with a large delegate lead over his nearest rival. Even if Sanders did not win a majority of Super Tuesday pledged delegates, such an outcome would have put him on course for a large plurality of all pledged delegates at the July Democratic convention. In those circumstances, Sanders would probably be the nominee.
However, Joe Biden had a crushing 28-point win over Sanders at Saturday’s South Carolina primary. In the next two days, moderate rivals Pete Buttigieg and Amy Klobuchar withdrew from the contest and endorsed Biden. There has not been enough time for polls to catch up with these developments, but they are very likely to assist Biden.
The FiveThirtyEight forecast has the chance nobody wins a pledged delegate majority surging to 63%. This does not necessarily mean a contested convention, as it includes cases where one candidate wins a strong plurality, and a deal is worked out before the convention. No delegate majority chances have surged because Mike Bloomberg and Elizabeth Warren are still in, and will be assisted in getting to 15% by the withdrawals.
Sanders now has just a 52% chance of winning more delegates than any other candidate, down from over 70% at his peak, while Biden’s chances have rocketed to 48%. The Democratic contest is now effectively a race between two men in their late 70s, and the winner will confront Donald Trump, who is a mere 73.
I recommend The Green Papers for delegate and popular vote counts. The next contests are next Tuesday, when six states vote that account for 9% of pledged delegates.
Netanyahu could win Israeli election outright
With 81% counted in Monday’s Israeli election, right-wing PM Benjamin Netanyahu’s bloc of parties had 60 of the 120 seats, to 53 for the opposition left bloc. If the right bloc wins one more seat, Netanyahu would have outright victory after April and September 2019 elections resulted in no government being formed. Yisrael Beiteinu, with seven seats, was unable to cooperate with either the Arab Joint List or the religious right parties before. This result comes despite Netanyahu’s November indictment on bribery and fraud charges.
Lisa Lerer
Lisa Lerer, in New York Just now:
The Sanders team was hoping for a blowout. They are not getting that. This is looking like a protracted fight for the nomination.
WashPo saying that Sanders won’t drop out before the Convention, even if behind Biden on Delegate count going into the Convention. So Sanders as a spoiler like in 2016.
Someone else who should drop out
Astead Herndon
Astead Herndon, in Detroit 3m ago
Sad number for Warren: She’s won one delegate so far tonight (as has Gabbard), while Biden/Bloomberg/Sanders are in another league. She’s set to win more later on, though.
“guytaursays:
Wednesday, March 4, 2020 at 1:55 pm
Sprocket
Biden will lose to Trump.”
So, sounds like your starting to write the script for a possible Sanders primaries loss. If Sanders can’t even win the primaries, why do you think he’d win the election.
etc
sprocket
Yeah that worked so well for Clinton.
She was a miles better candidate than Biden with better odds and she lost to Trump.
The Democrats have chosen another loss backing Biden.
The candidate so bad the campaign strategy was to hide him from the public.
Biden wins Alabama.
So much for Bernie Sanders strength with African-American voters.
phoenixRED says:
Wednesday, March 4, 2020 at 1:57 pm
‘Take a hint, Mike!’ Internet reacts to news Bloomberg will ‘reassess’ his campaign
On Tuesday night, following a string of disastrously bad showings in states where he had invested millions in advertising, NBC News reported that former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg will be “reassessing” his presidential campaign, and weighing whether to drop out.
– GOODBYE BLOOMBERG!!!
– Reassessing?? What does he need to reassess? He’s got not path. Time to take a hint, Mike!
– While he’s “reassessing” his campaign or whatever Bloomberg owes everyone apology for his egotistical bullshit campaign.
——————————-
If those comments are coming from Democrats then they should hang their heads because Bloomberg has successfully built his business and Andrew Yang tells CNN if the Democrats win in November it will be thanks to Bloomberg and his resources.
Blobbitt
I want Trump to lose.
Biden will fail. The safe establishment candidate was tried with Clinton.
Biden as nominee will ensure Trumps win.
Edit: Another way to put it. Which old man will be seen as more senile.
Bloomberg could’ve jumped on board with Biden (the moderate choice) and used his money to ensure a quick nomination and then a possible win. Instead he’s muddied the waters enormously.
Guytuar
In 2016 Bernie beat HRC by 20 points in Minnesota
In 2020 he has gone backwards – down 5 points to Joe Biden
Joe Biden wins Oklahoma.
37 Delegates.
Maybe not all, but most to him.
Biden’s win in Minnesota is a sign that his late surge is resonating even away from states with large black populations. It’s been quite the turn-around for him – he was flatlining as recently as a week ago – but it’s amazing what good results and media at the right time can do. It’s really hard to see how Sanders picks this up after this, notwithstanding that he’s likely end up with a good result in California.
Blobbit @ #153 Wednesday, March 4th, 2020 – 2:01 pm
Heh heh. 🙂
Gareth
At first he was supporting Biden but there was a time when Biden seemed cooked which lead to him to join the race.
Bloomberg “does not want to help Sanders become the nominee” as he assesses path forward
The mood among Bloomberg’s advisers is not only dour because of the disappointing results tonight, but also because of something else: a sense of fear has set in among some of his advisers that Bloomberg could complicate Biden’s extraordinarily swift consolidation of the moderate wing of the party.
“No,” a top Democrat close to the campaign told CNN tonight. “He does not want to help Sanders become the nominee.”
https://edition.cnn.com/politics/live-news/super-tuesday-results-2020/h_c3667b6bc143a54586d709b067cabf91
Hugoaugogo @ #161 Wednesday, March 4th, 2020 – 2:07 pm
I just heard that AOC has spent 2 years going around Texas signing up Latinos for Sanders!
guytaur @ #147 Wednesday, March 4th, 2020 – 12:55 pm
Biden has been campaigning against other Democrat nominees in a Democrat market. Not a good indication of how he will go in the general market.
Lots of excuses for Biden.
That tells me you know I am right.
Sanders wins Utah.
very passive aggressive speech from Sanders.
Time for Bernie to up stumps and back a winner
Guytaur
What in dogs name are you right about?
Cos from where I’m sitting, you haven’t been right about anything so far
Mexicanbeemer @ #169 Wednesday, March 4th, 2020 – 2:13 pm
In politics timing is everything and he probably realises the tide has turned.
Arkansas called for Biden .. have we had that one, can’t keep track 🙂
Six seats now called for Biden; two for Sanders.
Victoria
I have been right. I said Sanders would win California and Texas.
I did not say he would win Colarado or Utah.
I am certainly right about about the Biden campaign hiding him from the voters. It was widely covered by the media at the time.
Mavis
It’s not the states. It’s the delegates.
“guytaursays:
Wednesday, March 4, 2020 at 2:05 pm
Blobbitt
I want Trump to lose.
Biden will fail. The safe establishment candidate was tried with Clinton.
Biden as nominee will ensure Trumps win.”
Most people of both the Left and the Center want Trump to lose. The disagreement is over how to make that happen.
I really doubt that Sanders would do it. I’m also fairly sure that Biden won’t. From what I observe, my belief is that anyone identifying as a socialist is simply not going to win in the US. That isn’t a judgement on their policies, just my opinion on how the US votes.
I think they’re both pretty bad. I think Biden has the better chance of getting people to shift from Trump to the Democrats. Of course, that’s predicated on the belief that a majority of voting USAians don’t like Trump. I’m not actually convinced that’s the case.
Of all the names ever suggested here, I’d most like to see Oprah run.
Blobbitt
Your perception on socialism is wrong. See the ABC poll. They asked voters. Texas 52% in favour of socialism. In country town Tennessee 47% in favour.
Mexicanbeemer @ #140 Wednesday, March 4th, 2020 – 1:46 pm
Yeah nah, I think you need to look at PA, OH, FL, VA, NC and MN.
Only three of those were voting today and Biden looks to be winning all of them.
So, who thinks Trump will get more votes in 2020 than he did in 2016? Given that he lost the popular vote by several million to a supposedly divisive Democrat opponent, do you think we have passed peak Trump?
“guytaursays:
Wednesday, March 4, 2020 at 2:23 pm
Blobbitt
Your perception on socialism is wrong. See the ABC poll. They asked voters. Texas 52% in favour of socialism. In country town Tennessee 47% in favour”
One thing we on the Center and the Left (to maintain the preferred pollbludger division) keep getting wrong is believing what people say, not what they do.
We saw this at the last Australian election. People said they’re concerned about inequality, climate change etc. They voted for the party that did the least on these aspects.
Look at the primaries right now. Sanders is at best neck and neck with the electorate who should be most open to his views.
guytaur
You know I’m a very left wing guy so I have no problem with Bernie’s policies
I have a huge problem with how he campaigns, the shit he lets his staff and surrogates fling and his constant slagging of the party he wants to lead and anybody not in lockstep with him
Jeremy Corbyn, say what you like, never carried on like that
And it’s just possible you know that the schtick is getting a bit thin – his own people in Vermont have barely given him 51% tonight (87% counted), he got 86% in 2016 and 67% in 2018 in his last Senate run
Blobbit
People like Sanders are good at identifying a problem but are hopeless at finding solutions because much of what they purpose does nothing to fix inequality except statistically.
Ray (UK)
Spot on assessment
Joe Biden not making much sense. But that doesn’t matter apparently.
Ray
It’s going to be a very very very ugly campaign no matter who the Democrats nominate.
You know Trump will make it so.
That ugliness you are complaining about is what would help defeat Trump.
My problem with Sanders is he is too nice on the debate stage.
Ray (UK)
Corbyn was too polite, whilst Sanders can be a bit over bearing with his rants that could be expected from a Trump or Morrison.
In a rather inauspicious sign of things to come, Biden starts his victory speech by confusing his wife for his sister.
Asha Leu
says:
Wednesday, March 4, 2020 at 2:34 pm
In a rather inauspicious sign of things to come, Biden starts his victory speech by confusing his wife for his sister.
___________________
His popularity in the South just went up!
Interesting that Sanders looks like only winning his home state and the 3 other states that vote majority by mail. Hence missing the surge from Biden. Does not bode well.
Bloomberg+ Buttigieg + Warren in Utah is > Sanders. Even though Sanders wins Utah.
Blowout in Minnesota for Joe Biden.
Biden started the day strong in the south but has faded a bit as the count has moved further west and Bernie builds. Warren and Bloomberg have both cost Sanders and Biden wins and it looks like an absolute mess at the moment with the vote split all over the place. They both need to go now and allow it to be a one-on-one.
guytaur
“See the ABC poll. They asked voters. Texas 52% in favour of socialism. In country town Tennessee 47% in favour.”
My bullshit-meter just went off the scale.
Asha Leu @ #188 Wednesday, March 4th, 2020 – 2:34 pm
You did read the story today about how Trump had to have the way vaccines work for 2 days in a row, and he still didn’t get it!?! And you’re fretting over a small thing like that!?!
Mexicanbeemer
“To sum up Biden is winning states that will vote republican in November and Sanders is winning where the election will be decided.”
This is an interesting sidebar; but it is no way predictive of how a Dem candidate will perform in the Nov presidential election.
“Lots of excuses for Biden.
That tells me you know I am right.”
Biden gets smashed in the people’s socialist republic of Utah. He should drop out now …
Kakaru
Well the American ABC network posted the poll.
You can go look it up yourself.
Kakuru
American politics tends to be louder with candidates looking to claim momentum.
Anti Dairy protesters invaded Biden stage.
Guytaur
It would be a poll of Democrat supporters, there is no way 52% of Texas would be pro-socialism.