2:35pm Friday Warren has dropped out, leaving a two-candidate race between Sanders and Biden. The delegate count at The Green Papers currently gives Biden a 671-599 lead over Sanders, from popular votes of 35.1% Biden, 28.7% Sanders. In California, Sanders has an 8.4% lead over Biden with over 3 million votes remaining, but some of these will be Republican primary votes. Late counting in California skews more left the longer it goes.
2:19pm Thursday Last night, Bloomberg withdrew from the contest and endorsed Biden. No decision has yet been made by Warren. In California, Sanders leads by 8.7% with all election day precincts reporting. We should know approximately how many outstanding votes are left tomorrow.
9:53pm Conversation article up. Biden is likely to win ten states to four for Sanders, and has a 102-delegate lead in The Green Papers count. In 2016, Clinton had little appeal to lower-educated whites, and that’s likely why Sanders was competitive. But Biden has more appeal to the lower-educated than Clinton. Once moderate rivals withdrew, he consolidated the moderate vote.
8:37pm With 79% of election day precincts counted in California, Sanders leads Biden by 31.8% to 22.8%. California takes FOUR weeks to count all its votes, so there’s lots of late counting to look forward to!
7:32pm With almost all votes counted in the Israeli election, the right bloc lost a seat, so Netanyahu will be three seats short of a majority. It’s right 58 out of 120, left 55, Yisrael Beiteinu seven.
7:27pm The California Secretary of State now has 64% of precincts reporting, and Sanders is almost 10% ahead of Biden.
6:00pm Texas CALLED for Biden.
4:15pm Biden up to a 1.8% lead in Texas, and the Needle now gives him a 70% chance to win.
4:06pm Biden overtakes Sanders in Texas. He’s 0.4% ahead with 60% of election day precincts in. The Needle gives Biden a 56% chance to win Texas.
4:05pm The NY Times shows 23% of California’s Election Day precincts have already reported, but the California Secretary of State (the official results service) says only 4%.
3:47pm With 54% of election day votes reporting in Texas, Sanders leads by 1.2%. The Needle still sees this as 50-50 between Sanders and Biden.
3:21pm Dave Wasserman has called Texas for Biden, but the NY Times Needle says it’s 50-50 with 34% reporting. Sanders has a 3.6% lead.
3:18pm Massachusetts officially CALLED for Biden. With 65% reporting, he has 33.4%, Sanders 26.7% and Warren 22.1%.
3:10pm With 93% of election day votes in in North Carolina, Biden’s lead is now almost 19 points, up from seven before election day votes.
3:03pm California not called for Sanders, but it looks good for hime in exit polls. Biden likely the only other candidate who breaks the 15% delegate threshold statewide.
2:47pm Minnesota CALLED for Biden. He leads by eight points with 57% reporting. Sanders was supposed to win here.
2:45pm With 43% reporting in Alabama, Sanders is at 16.2%, close to the 15% delegate threshold. Falling below 15% would be a disaster for Sanders.
2:34pm Sanders has won Utah, a stronghold for Republicans where the small Democratic electorate is progressive.
2:30pm In Texas, Sanders leads Biden by 5.6% with 23% of election day precincts in. The NY Times needle has Biden very slightly ahead.
2:25pm Dave Wasserman projects Elizabeth Warren will finish third in her home state of Massachusetts, behind Biden (first) and Sanders (second).
2:15pm While I was out for lunch, Biden was CALLED the winner in Arkansas, Oklahoma and Tennessee, giving him six state wins. Sanders won Colorado, mainly due a split early vote. Early voting dominates in that state. Biden currently leads in Minnesota and Massachusetts, which Sanders was supposed to win.
1:01pm The NY Times needle gives Biden a 68% chance of winning Texas although Sanders currently leads by 6.6%.
12:58pm As the Election Day vote comes through in North Carolina, Biden increases his lead. He’s now leading in NC by 11% with 29% in.
12:45pm In Virginia, where the election day vote was virtually all voters, Biden leads Sanders by 54-23 with 96% reporting.
12:34pm Maybe early voting will stop Biden from routing Sanders. Biden is only up by seven points over Sanders in North Carolina with 12% of Election Day precincts reporting. Biden not doing so well in votes cast before South Carolina and the withdrawals.
12:18pm With 66% reporting in Virginia, Biden is crushing Sanders by 30 points.
12:15pm Polls in Arkansas close at 12:30pm, then it’s Colorado and Minnesota at 1pm, Utah at 2pm and finally California at 3pm.
12:10pm As regards Texas, a small part of the state is in the Mountain Time zone and doesn’t close til 1pm AEDT. Exit polls will be released then.
12:06pm Alabama CALLED for Biden, while the other 12pm states are uncalled. In Massachusetts, it’s a close three-way race between Biden, Sanders and Warren (it’s Warren’s home state).
11:57am Biden is over 20% in the first Vermont results. If he stays above 15% there, he gets delegates, which Hillary Clinton was unable to do in 2016.
11:49am Biden has a 55-23 lead over Sanders in Virginia with 32% in.
11:40am Count in Virginia is already up to 22%, and it’s Biden by a crushing 54-24 over Sanders with nobody else close to clearing 15%.
11:34am CNN CALLS North Carolina for Biden based on a large exit poll lead. This is looking better and better for Biden.
11:27am With 1% reporting in Virginia, Biden leads Sanders by 51-25. Everyone else is well below the 15% delegate threshold.
11:24am The next polls to close are North Carolina at 11:30am AEDT, then Alabama, Maine, Massachusetts, Oklahoma, Tennessee and Texas at 12pm.
11:08am Sanders CALLED the winner in his home state of Vermont, but the exit polls suggest Biden will beat the 15% threshold there, restricting Sanders’ delegate advantage.
11:01am Biden CALLED the winner in Virginia by CNN based on exit polls. He has a 63-18 lead over Sanders with black voters (27% of the electorate) and a 43-26 lead with whites (63% of electorate).
10:20am Wednesday With 94% counted in the Israeli election, right-wing parties have 59 seats (up four since the September 2019 election) and left-wing parties 54 (down three). Likud is the biggest party with a 36-32 lead over Blue & White, reversing the 33-32 deficit last September. It appears that Netanyahu’s coalition will be two seats short of a majority.
Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is an honorary associate at the University of Melbourne. His work on electoral matters for The Conversation can be found here, and his own website is here.
Fourteen states vote in the Super Tuesday Democratic primaries tomorrow, in which 1,357 of the 3,979 total pledged delegates are awarded (34% of all delegates). Delegates are awarded proportionally to vote share, but with a high 15% threshold that applies to both statewide delegates and Congressional District (CD) delegates. The more Democratic-leaning a CD is, the more delegates it receives. Polls close between 11am and 3pm AEDT.
A few days ago, it appeared likely that Bernie Sanders would come out of Super Tuesday with a large delegate lead over his nearest rival. Even if Sanders did not win a majority of Super Tuesday pledged delegates, such an outcome would have put him on course for a large plurality of all pledged delegates at the July Democratic convention. In those circumstances, Sanders would probably be the nominee.
However, Joe Biden had a crushing 28-point win over Sanders at Saturday’s South Carolina primary. In the next two days, moderate rivals Pete Buttigieg and Amy Klobuchar withdrew from the contest and endorsed Biden. There has not been enough time for polls to catch up with these developments, but they are very likely to assist Biden.
The FiveThirtyEight forecast has the chance nobody wins a pledged delegate majority surging to 63%. This does not necessarily mean a contested convention, as it includes cases where one candidate wins a strong plurality, and a deal is worked out before the convention. No delegate majority chances have surged because Mike Bloomberg and Elizabeth Warren are still in, and will be assisted in getting to 15% by the withdrawals.
Sanders now has just a 52% chance of winning more delegates than any other candidate, down from over 70% at his peak, while Biden’s chances have rocketed to 48%. The Democratic contest is now effectively a race between two men in their late 70s, and the winner will confront Donald Trump, who is a mere 73.
I recommend The Green Papers for delegate and popular vote counts. The next contests are next Tuesday, when six states vote that account for 9% of pledged delegates.
Netanyahu could win Israeli election outright
With 81% counted in Monday’s Israeli election, right-wing PM Benjamin Netanyahu’s bloc of parties had 60 of the 120 seats, to 53 for the opposition left bloc. If the right bloc wins one more seat, Netanyahu would have outright victory after April and September 2019 elections resulted in no government being formed. Yisrael Beiteinu, with seven seats, was unable to cooperate with either the Arab Joint List or the religious right parties before. This result comes despite Netanyahu’s November indictment on bribery and fraud charges.
Biden/Sanders split the party – Trump re-elected in November.
If the Super delegates deny you, and you have Bernies support base – you run as an independent in November. At 78 he’s hardly got a reason to build bridges for 2024 does he.
Trump already putting the line out about Bernie being cheated by the establishment.
Hi Adrian,
Just letting you know how much I appreciate your posts on PB and think they are a positive expansion of the PB experience.
Cheers.
C’mon and feel the Bern.
Voters do not turn.
All about Super Tuesday:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/02/19/what-is-super-tuesday/?arc404=true
20 November 1942 – So Biden will be 78 2 weeks after the election. Sanders is 8 September 1941
Biden is nearly 3.5 years older than Trump – 14 June 1946.
The flaky speech (Biden) versus the cliche speech (Trump).
Flaky does suggest cognitive decline.
“ Flaky does suggest cognitive decline.”
Sleepy Joe had a brain embolism back in 1988 after dropping out of the race a few months earlier. He’s always struck me as halfway gaga…
Greensborough Growler, thanks very much!
Biden massive surge in at least one poll since SC. Bernie and Biden now almost neck and neck…
https://morningconsult.com/2020/03/02/post-south-carolina-poll-joe-biden/
I’ve previously called for Warren to go, but perhaps I’m good with her staying in the race 😀
…
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/03/02/bernie-sanderss-elizabeth-warren-problem/
Here is some biting analysis from Dotard himself on the state of the Democrat race..
https://mobile.twitter.com/thehill/status/1234663534451183616
538 Forecast Model is absolutely wild at the moment, presumably from the very large number of polls that have dropped into the model in the last couple of days – 28 state polls just today so far
Sanders numbers are in a steep decline
To win a majority of delegates – No One 62%, Biden 30%, Sanders 8%
Forecast total delegates (1991 needed) – Biden 1728, Sanders 1358, Bloomberg 566, Warren 286
That’s a swing of around 1000 delegates in less than a week
Logically, you would think that Biden’s big win in SC on Saturday, followed by the withdrawal and endorsement of several former rivals, will work in Biden’s favour, though Sanders remains the front-runner for now. He probably will remain ahead tomorrow, given his apparent advantage in delegate-rich California, but his march to the nomination certainly seems far less certain than it did a few days ago.
While most eyes will understandably be on the Presidential primary, there are several other races worth keeping an eye on, including Senate primaries in Alabama, North Carolina, and Texas. Plenty for us political junkies to get excited about!
Surely, if Biden is the answer then it’s the wrong question.
He only has 2 qualities – he isn’t Trump, and he isn’t Sanders.
For that matter the same could be said about Bloomberg.
Trump needs to go, but his replacement needs to actually stand for something.
Well. Not so much, really.
It really depends on if the Dems can win the Senate – they might, but it’s a tough ask, and it seems likely that they will fall short (although an economic downturn before November would certainly change the political dynamic). Without the Senate (and without some major bloodletting and repositioning by the Republicans) there is no way in hell that a Dem president is actually going to be able to push any major reforms through.
And even if they do win the Senate they have to actually get everything they need to get done in 2 years because history has shown that the mid-terms will screw up any congressional power they might obtain, and the Dems have been singularly useless at making effective use of their time in the sun.
Using executive orders looks to be the way anything gets done, now, and of course they will just be wiped away by the next Republican president (unless that bloodletting/repositioning happens, which I am not optimistic about).
ie all this focus on big policy seems to be largely meaningless to me. But hey, I’m clearly just a soulless centrist in the pocket of Big Something.
The only thing I’m really hoping for is that not-Trump is president next year … wishing for anything more is to lose sight of how completely broken everything is at the moment. You’re not getting your pony no matter how fervently you rant online about it or how stridently an old white dude shouts about it from a lectern.
Does anyone else view the rather unseemly haste of Buttiglieg and Klobuchar to rush to Biden’s side as a competitive race to try to be Biden’s appointed VP?
After all, whoever gets that ticket will stand a pretty good chance of “movin’ up” to POTUS at some stage of a Biden presidency (should that eventuate).
If so, will this reduce the number of their supporters who switch to support Biden?
Biden surges to lead in new Morning Consult national poll, +10 since Sunday polling
https://morningconsult.com/2020/03/03/biden-reclaims-national-lead-with-buttigieg-klobuchar-exits/
this is an interesting article covering an outlier’s unlikely campaign in texas.
‘Green New Deal’ Democrat aims for a Texas oil patch upset
Progressive candidate Jessica Cisneros is hoping for an AOC-style win against powerful Democratic House incumbent Henry Cuellar in Tuesday’s primary.
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/03/cisneros-texas-oil-cuellar-118969
i say good for her & best of luck ! she’s working a strategy to take the green new deal pitch to folks in the energy sector heartland. eyes wide open, sticking her neck out for what she believes in. and taking on the moribund democratic establish to boot. -a.v.
what does Biden actually stand for? Can anyone actually name any policy positions of his. I mean something actually meaningful , not just fluff.
IMO a democrat centrist is every bit as dangerous as Trump, and quite possibly worse.
I posted this towards the end of the SC thread, but given that the same old Sanders v the Rest arguments are starting up here, I thought I’d re-post.
Peter Brent has mixed record as a political analyst, but for what it’s worth, he thinks Biden is far more likely to get elected (because he won’t scare the horses), and so therefore is more likely to make some sort of effort by the US in fighting climate change (on the basis that any Democrat is better than any GOP President on this issue). Which I guess goes to the heart of the political dilemma for the Left – we want to be bold and far-reaching in policy, but by the same token, we want to win elections. Squaring that circle is never easy.
A popular insult by Sanders/Corbyn/ Greens supporters on this site (and elsewhere) is to label other Lefties who aren’t fellow travellers as “centrists”, “the establishment”, “Blairites”, and other labels meant to question commitment to the cause. But actually I think a more accurate term would be “pragmatists”. My own views across a range of social and economic fields hew a fair way Left, but my practical side recognises that my views aren’t worth much if they aren’t animating a government willing to put them into practice. I would, in the end, support parties and candidates that will institute 20% of what I believe into action, over other parties that will never taste power and so I get 100% of nothing.
None of this is meant to disparage the true believers, and personally I think that if we want to see Left-wing ideals translated into action, we need both sides of the equation working together – we need to idealists to dream, and the pragmatists to put it into action. To bring this back to the US politics theme of this thread, Sanders has done a great job putting things like climate action, the minimum wage and health care on to the agenda. It’s just that I can’t see enough people voting for him to become President, and that the most likely way for at least some of his agenda to be translated into government action is for it to be done by a more electorally palatable leader.
https://insidestory.org.au/why-joe-biden-needs-to-win/
PaulTu @ #16 Wednesday, March 4th, 2020 – 12:24 am
No. You obviously don’t understand the American system, nor this particular race.
Firstly, a candidate who remains in the race but is endorsed by former candidates, is directing their supporters who to vote for instead. Nothing about jockeying for position. In fact, the only position Biden categorically offered was to Beto O’Rourke to head up a task force to deal with the guns issue. Hardly controversial and definitely not opportunistic by Beto because his stance on guns caused him to drop out of the race!
Secondly, the endorsements of Buttigieg and Klobuchar are meant to be a contrast to Bernie Sanders. That is, they support the guy who isn’t Sanders.
“20 November 1942 – So Biden will be 78 2 weeks after the election. Sanders is 8 September 1941”
***
Bloomberg is also 78 already too remember. Warren at 70 is the youngest of the four contenders. Gabbard is just 38 though.
At a guess, I might suggest that both Buttigieg and Klobuchar have been made vague offers of a role in a Biden administration, though it’s probably not the only reason they dropped out. As C@tmomma has noted, they will have recognised that their continued presence in the race was dividing the moderate vote, and probably feel that Sanders is less likely to win the general.
As for Biden’s Veep choice, Klobuchar wouldn’t be a bad fit for him – a youngish, experienced, mid-West woman – though she might also have her eye on the AG job. After Trump’s disastrous politicisation of the Dept of Justice, she might see (as a former prosecutor) that there is some good work to be done there.
Buttigieg probably offers less to Biden as a VP choice. Biden’s strategy is basically to carry the black vote, and to scoop up enough moderate, white, Catholic mid-West men. Neither of those groups are likely to be enhanced by picking a young gay man as his running mate. Buttigieg may well be a better fit for Veterans Affairs, Defence, or even Secretary of State (he does speak a billion languages, after all).
So we have two frontrunners, two wildcards, and Tulsi. Even though the field is much smaller now we’re still not down to one-on-one.
Bloomberg has just made a rude comment that he didn’t think Warren was still running. Those two haaate each other.
You left one out. Sell outs.
Yes, Seriously, Tulsi Gabbard Is Still Running
As the news broke that Senator Amy Klobuchar would be imminently announcing the end of her presidential campaign, perhaps you thought, Wow, Elizabeth Warren is the only woman left standing. But if you thought that, you would be wrong.
Because Hawaii representative Tulsi Gabbard is still in the running, people. Did you forget? As the field of candidates narrows from over 20 to just 5, despite not yet securing a single pledged delegate in the first four Democratic primary races, and not polling high enough to appear on stage for a debate since November, Gabbard remains in the race. Though Tom Steyer, Pete Buttigieg, and now Klobuchar, who all had significantly more demonstrable support among voters, have dropped out, Tulsi remains. She has not yet called time.
Gabbard’s persistence is not totally surprising given that she has always been an … unusual candidate. Her signature silver hair streak has long been a metaphor for, well, a renegade political streak, including some rather strident foreign policy views, sassy comments on the debate stage, having an outspoken sister who denounces the mainstream media, and fighting very publicly with Hillary Clinton. With very slim chances to get anywhere close to the nomination, even some sympathetic voters are wondering just what she’s up to. With the frontrunners in the primary becoming clearer, Klobuchar and Buttigieg are supposedly backing Joe Biden. Gabbard endorsed Bernie Sanders in 2016, but in order to do that this time around, she would have to drop out first. She is showing no sign of doing so, and released a campaign video on Twitter earlier today.
Anyway, consider this a reminder that Tulsi Gabbard is still running for president, in case you needed one.
https://www.thecut.com/2020/03/is-tulsi-gabbard-is-still-running-for-president.html
Hugoaugogo,
I was thinking Buttigieg for Defence Secretary as well. 🙂
Stacey Abrams is still coming up in despatches as VP choice. An African American woman from the South.
hugo: “A popular insult by Sanders/Corbyn/ Greens supporters on this site (and elsewhere) is to label other Lefties who aren’t fellow travellers as “centrists”, “the establishment”, “Blairites”, and other labels meant to question commitment to the cause. ”
Its probably because we equate ‘centrist’ to ‘cynical’.
As someone else said, if Biden is the answer, then the question is wrong. Saw a really good tweet last night, making a comparison between the pro-Biden and pro-Bernie tweets. The pro-Biden tweets were (according to this tweeter) all about ‘nice guy’ ‘good manner’ ‘electable’ etc – while the pro-Bernie tweets were about actually changing people’s lives with meaningful policies like medicare for all. Now if Biden is really going to be the ultimate choice of democrats, then the voters really are in the wrong frame of mind. Because its not as if the vast majority of dems don’t agree with Bernie’s policies – check the studies and survey going back for decades if you are sceptical. Its just that they seem to have this screwed up view that says ‘we mustn’t vote for what we agree with – because somehow we won’t win’ .
The American left are just creating this stupid and circular self-fulfilling prophecy. And its especially maddening now when they are obsessed with the pointless mantra ‘have to get rid of Trump at all costs’. And the point I make about the Biden’s of the world, is that their cynicism is one of the main drivers that perpetuates this self-defeating cycle.
.
BIG A Adrian – I seem to recall exactly the same comments were made about Corbyn. How did that one end up?
Corbyn lost moderate. What exactly is your point? That cynicism in politics is winning? Sorry, but thats not news to me.
Sheesh. Nobody is plugging for a position as Vice President. In the US system the VP is always chosen to plug a perceived weakness of the presidential candidate.
Historically this has been to try to get traction in a region the candidate is weak in, such as a northerner picking a southerner, or sometimes to plug a perceived policy gap (Obama picked Biden as VP to plug a perceived weakness in foreign policy).
Biden in this case will certainly need to pick someone noticeably younger than himself, and probably more liberal in order to attempt to rebuild bridges with the party’s liberal wing and provide a reason for Sanders supporters to turn out. The odds of that person being in this year’s field of presidential candidates is vanishingly small.
Being formerly in the race for presidential candidate is not a qualification for VP, and a presidential candidate really doesn’t need competition for profile from their running mate.
Odds-on Biden’s VP pick will be a current senator or governor of a relatively liberal state. It wouldn’t superprise at all if the VP in the current electorial environment was also be a woman, or perhaps hispanic to potentially put Florida and Texas in play.
hugo: “A popular insult by Sanders/Corbyn/ Greens supporters on this site (and elsewhere) is to label other Lefties who aren’t fellow travellers as “centrists”, “the establishment”, “Blairites”, and other labels meant to question commitment to the cause. ”
***
It’s just the truth. “Who aren’t fellow travelers” you say. Well doesn’t that tell you something? If you don’t support what they support then you don’t share the same cause, do you?
The left and the establishment do have at least one common cause though and that would be getting rid of Trump. We just disagree on how that should be done.
AngoraFish @ #32 Wednesday, March 4th, 2020 – 8:11 am
The current favourite is Kamala Harris.
“BIG A Adrian – I seem to recall exactly the same comments were made about Corbyn. How did that one end up?”
***
While you’re at it, Adrian, remind him how Clinton went in 2016 and why we are where we are right now.
We shall see if it’s any different from the four states that have already voted.
“ Bloomberg has just made a rude comment that he didn’t think Warren was still running. Those two haaate each other.”
Eureka!
A Bloomberg-Warren ticket is the answer: with a Reality TV Series following their fractious campaign. Americans would love love love it and the series will prove that there is no such thing as bad publicity. They’d win in a landslide and I for won would love to see them on stage at the Victory Party still hurling insults at each other. America and the world deserves this.
Thanks Hugoaugogo, Mumble writes the same thing I’ve been saying for ages now. This election should be a referendum on Trump. Someone like Sanders as the alternative president makes the election a referendum on them, not the incumbent.
Kamala Harris has two things Biden doesn’t need, given that Biden’s strength is with black voters so he doesn’t need that, and he hardly needs a running mate from California which is a lock for the Democrats in November.
Yes, she is younger and a woman, and dropped out early enough, but that’s about it. She’s also going to struggle keeping her mouth closed which will take oxygen away from Biden. If KH is nominated as VP I’ll eat my hat.
The polls are just regurgitating names people know. When the VP is announced it is virtually never someone widely known outside of the beltway. At this stage any discussion of a potential VP pick is just extra column inches for the sake of filling a slow morning.
Fess @8:18am:
Your mission today, if you chose to accept it, is to convince Guytaur that the Bernie Project is a bust for the reasons that Frum sets out in his tweet.
As always, should you or any of your IM Force be caught or killed, the Secretary will disavow any knowledge of your actions. This disc will self-destruct in five seconds.
This is the Rick Wilson position.
Rick is a very very bad person and is the problem with US politics not the solution. It is also one of those places where he might be right but even then it is not a ‘good’ right it is just the kind of ‘right’ that Rick and really really bad people like him have been delivering in the US since Reagan, if not before.
A_E:
I have neither the time nor the inclination to waste effort on responding to guytaur. He is clearly happy living in his own personal bubble, so I think it is best he is just left to it. And besides, I wish I could stay home today and watch the vote count unfold, but alas I have to work. 🙂
Also if Biden is the answer you are asking questions only a defeated broken person would ask.
The Republican’s fell in behind a lazy, lying, racist, third rate conman and they won. They have nobbled the US court system so that is almost certainly won’t deliver justice for something like 30 years.
Biden’s whole plan is to *check notes* work with those republicans on well, lets be honest those republicans are only going to cooperate on more bad judges and more bad law. Tax cuts, guns for everyone, good things only for the uber rich. There is no way the republicans are going to work in a cooperative way to expand ACA, it just isn’t going to happen. Oh they’ll cooperate to water it down and deny protections it currently offers, you know like they tried this term.
If Biden and working with republicans who are the ones who acquitted a blatantly obviously guilty and corrupt Trump is your solution. Well I have a bridge to sell you.
Four more years of Trump will be better than 4 years of Biden and then the really smart Republican that thrashes a Biden who has achieved nothing and plays like Trump but smarter.
WWP:
I disagree with Wilson’s politics, but you can’t dismiss the fact that he has decades of experience managing political campaigns and running focus groups with voters. If he says that a Bernie Sanders would struggle to win the states needed to win the presidency, then I’m going to pay attention. He isn’t running for president, simply offering an assessment of the candidates based on his experience.
And besides, don’t we have our own experience of something similar here? Remember John Hewson and Bill Shorten losing the so-called unloseable elections taking big, scary changes to an election and frightening the bejeesus out of voters?
Frum just makes stuff up.
I don’t disagree with conservative politics, so much as I think there are better more progressive ways to maintain and improve our community and society.
What I strongly disagree with are the racist and deeply dishonest methods of Wilson and co. Watch any of his talks plugging his new book. He will say over and over again ‘well it is false but enough people believe it so it is as if it is true’. That is a terrible terrible frame. It is the frame that has brought us to the very very bad places that the USA, the UK and Aus are in.
With your two examples:
* while I don’t personally think John Hewson’s program was actually good for Australia, it is very fair to characterize his loss not as Australia consciously rejecting the program, like I would have liked, nor embracing our greatest ever PM, but rather as a victory for the worst of journalism and the lazy politics of fear (which is mostly dishonest even when practiced by Australia’s greatest ever PM). The pathetic ‘gotcha’ moment where guess what we found out tax is complex. Well who’d have thought one of the most difficult areas of law would be difficult!
* Shorten didn’t even take a big progressive program, there is no way an objective assessment of the package Shorten took to the last election could conclude it was big and progressive. At its best and worst it fiddled at the edges (franking credit cash outs, ie negative taxes for the super wealthy and greedy) and thought about fiddling at the edges (didn’t even promise an increase to the manifestly inadequate newstart, nor an immediate end to the completely evil robodebt program). Frankly my assessment isn’t that Shorten lost the unloseable election, rather it is that Rick Wilson types in concert with Rupert Murdoch and Stokes types and the LNP, people without conscience, people with no concern for the truth, and the people who lead society to send fake robodebts to its most vulnerable, to lockup kids in cages and to torture and kill refugees in hellholes won the election. Shorten could have offered a real progressive program, he could have just sheared sheep and offered nothing and the result may well have been the same.
Finally I’ve got to go to work, but the Hewson loss is perhaps the best lived example of my ‘Biden could be worse than Trump ultimately’ theorem. Yeah Keating beat Hewson, but in the very next round we got Howard, and Howard was much much worse than Hewson. Maybe Hewson would have turned out as bad as Howard, but i doubt it.
In the same way while Biden is better than Trump the guy who thrashes a Biden in 4 years time is likely to be just as evil as Trump but a lot lot smarter. With an effective VP not a clown whose own state didn’t want. They take the Senate and the House in 2024 as is likely with a democratic base completely deflated and defeated after 4 years of Biden working with republicans and the filibuster and achieving absolutely zero, if not actually going backwards. Going backwards is what democrats usually do when they work with republicans.
Don’t get me wrong none of this means I think Bernie or Warren can actually win. But better to try and build the society you want and lose than to become like the Rick Wilsons of the world. There has to be a bottom to the lies, hate and spin.
Free CNN live stream if anyone needs it: https://www.livenewsmag.com/cnn-live-streaming/
You can also find a link to MSNBC and even Fox at that link if you don’t like CNN but I think their election coverage is very good.
Yes it is terrible, but it is nevertheless true and nothing illustrates this more perfectly than Trumpism. So many Americans believed the perception that a) Trump is a self-made billionaire and therefore that b) this meant he was best placed to manage the economy and address inequality. Instead of seeing the reality that he was a failed businessman, indebted to mafiosa bagmen and owned by the Russians.
Furthermore, so many Americans believed he was a political outsider and could therefore clean up Washington instead of seeing the reality that he will sell out both himself and the country to the highest bidder and stack the WH with unqualified stooges, including his own family.
So yes, it is terrible that political strategists like Wilson have used this to their advantage, but it doesn’t mean that he isn’t right when he says that people will believe anything if they think it’s true.
If you’re not a socialist, you’re not of the left.