Wherein we finally wrap up the Call of the Board series, a slowly unfolding state-by-state round-up every seat result from last year’s federal election. Here we tie up the loose ends of the territories, where Labor achieved a clean sweep of five seats – an essentially foregone conclusion for the Australian Capital Territory (which went from two to three seats at this election), but a strong result for them in the Northern Territory (which may be set to lose its second at the next). Previous episodes of the series dealt with Sydney (here and here), regional New South Wales, Melbourne, regional Victoria, south-east Queensland, regional Queensland, Western Australia and South Australia and Tasmania.
Solomon (Labor 3.1%; 3.0% swing to CLP): The always marginal seat that covers Darwin has only gone the way of the winning party once out of the last four elections (in 2013), this time returning Luke Gosling after he gained it for Labor in 2016. Gosling’s 6.0% winning margin off a 7.4% swing in 2016 was the clearest win in the history of a highly marginal seat, the previous record having been Dave Tollner’s 2.8% win for the Country Liberal Party in 2004. This meant he had enough change to record the seat’s second-biggest margin even after a 3.0% swing back to the Country Liberals. As the map to the right illustrates, the pattern of swings in the seat reflected broader themes from the election: the affluent area around the city centre swung to Labor, but the lower-income suburbs of the north went the other way, and the more conservative new suburbia of Palmerston went further still.
Lingiari (Labor 5.5%; 2.7% swing to CLP): Warren Snowdon retained the remainder-of-NT seat of Lingiari, which he has held without interruption since 2001, his closest shave in that time being a 0.9% margin in 2013. The swings in the two Northern Territory seats have been closely matched at the last election, with a 7.5% blowout in Lingiari in 2016 followed by a 2.7% correction this time. There have been occasions in the past where swings varied widely between Alice Springs and Katherine on the one hand and the remote communities in the other, but not this time.
Bean (Labor 7.5%; 1.3% swing to Liberal): The ACT’s new third seat was created entirely from territory that was formerly in the Canberra electorate, whose member Gai Brodtmann did not seek re-election. David Smith, who had previously filled Katy Gallagher’s Senate vacancy when she fell foul of section 44 in May 2018, had no trouble holding Bean for Labor in the face of a slight swing. Left-wing independent Jamie Christie scored a creditable 8.3%, contributing to solid drops on the primary vote for both major parties.
Canberra (Labor 17.1%; 4.1% swing to Labor): The Canberra electorate covers the central third of the capital, and might be regarded as the true “new” seat since it drew territory from both of the previous electorates. Like Darwin, Canberra offered a miniature reflection of national trend in that the city’s inner area moved solidly further to the left, while the suburbs swung to the Liberals. This was reflected in a 4.6% primary vote increase for the Greens, reducing the gap with the Liberals to 27.8% to 23.3%. This is the lowest yet recorded in an ACT seat, but with the Liberal how-to-vote directing preferences to Labor ahead of the Greens, they would probably have remained out of contention if they had made up the difference. With the departure of Gai Brodtmann, its new Labor member is Alicia Payne, who dropped 2.0% on the primary vote to 40.5%.
Fenner (Labor 10.6%; 1.3% swing to Liberal): Labor’s Andrew Leigh suffered a slight swing from similar primary vote numbers to 2016, the main disturbance being the appearance of the United Australia Party with 4.1%.
‘E. G. Theodore says:
Monday, February 17, 2020 at 9:12 pm
GG:
I always preferred frangers without any holes.
Surely the Vatican only approves of the holy ones!’
haha. Good ones.
E. G. Theodore @ #1295 Monday, February 17th, 2020 – 8:58 pm
So, you personally rate homophobia to be a ‘lesser’ evil than racism?
Others might disagree. Or do you believe everyone must share your beliefs?
There’s a word for that too.
The Greens have become what they have become; an anti Labor party. It is right and proper they preference their fellow traveler first. NT Greens are to be admired for the honesty.
Will the Greens accept their success when a non Labor party wins or refuse to own their part in the result as the Greens refuse to own their success at the federal Level.
It would be right and proper for the Federal Greens to preference the Liberals and be done with it.
Player One @ #1304 Monday, February 17th, 2020 – 9:18 pm
There’s a word for people like you too.
Inconsequential!
‘Prayer is all we have left…’
I couldn’t stop wondering how many sanctimonious Evangelicals, who believe making lots of money can buy them protection from all of the brutish nasties the rest of us have to cope with on a day to day basis, were on those cruising crucibles of COVID-19 infection? 🙂
Normally, despite news of the ingenious Budgetary Cure for COVID-19 announced by the Indonesian government, I’d cross anywhere in Indonesia off my travel list, like Diogenes told us last night he was doing.
However I’m worried about being declared a racist by the PB Racism Determination Board.
After all no-one has been diagnosed with the disease by the razor-sharp health authorities of our neighbour to the north.
Am I over-analyzing this?
[‘The demise of Holden has intensified the political debate about taxpayer support for the manufacturing industry, with Acting Opposition Leader Tanya Plibersek accusing the Coalition of “goading” Holden.
“Treasurer Hockey dared Holden to withdraw from Australia and he got his way,” she said.’]
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-12-11/holden-to-cease-manufacturing-operations-in-australia-by-2017/5150034
Hockey’s statement was unhelpful but I think GM had already made up its mind that it couldn’t compete in Australia where some 50 different car manufacturers are selling their wares, in a relatively small market.
BB
FWIW, official Australian Government advisory for Indonesia:
https://www.smartraveller.gov.au/consular-services/travel-advice-explained#level2
https://apple.news/AUCD14T0oRo2WaxzWJ36q1Q
Impotent, flacid …
Q&A doing trustworthy and least trustworthy professions.
Before she was a NSW Health manager, Her Indoors worked for GMH in their NSW division as their Dealer Co-ordinator.
We regularly had execs from all over the GMH constellation as guests at our home in Sydney, and vice versa.
As their de facto events co-ordinator, HI’s job was to organise everything from catering to liasing with Civil Aviation regarding the GMH Blimp flying over the rooftop of the Sydney Hilton hotel’s function centre.
Of all the people I met, one of their Product Managers put it most succinctly, when I asked him why sales were in freefall: “We make shit cars, designed by dumb rev-heads, that no-one with any sense wants to buy.”
“Kangaroos, meat pies and Holdens” didn’t cut it anymore.
Interesting, but variable quality, Q&A on trust, ATM.
Boerwar:
It’s a bit of a weird discussion I’m finding. Surely the experience of trust is somewhat subjective?
Player One:
My position is objective.
The context is “directing preferences” so one must consider the possibility that the preferences thus directed lead to the election of the candidate to whom they are directed.
It is preferable that those elected be capable of rational thought, even if their conclusions are incorrect (as would be the case for the candidate opposed to gay marriage, in my view)
Positions on gay marriage are based on something extant, namely marriage. The incorrect (in my view) positions adopted by those opposed to gay marriage are based on misunderstanding of the nature of marriage and its relation to society in 2020. Such misunderstandings can plausibly be altered by argument (unless one falls for the modern American idea that candidates must announce all their views in advance of running for office, and never deviate, even if the facts change).
Racist positions are fundamentally different in that they are based on something called “race”, which doesn’t exist (unlike marriage, which does). It is not possible to develop rationally in relation to something that simply doesn’t exist. A candidate who cannot develop rationally has a dangerous inability to react to fact (and change of fact) and should not be supported.
It is similar to the idea that one is entitled to one’s own opinions (e.g. on marriage) but not to one’s own facts (one cannot take as fact the existence of “race” when the fact is that “race” doesn’t exist).
You are in quite good company in your confusion: several Justices of the High Court think that “race” exists (see their recent judgment in seven parts), but the fact is that “race” does not exist. Diogenes can explain why.
What possible National Security implications could arise out of allowing individual asylum seekers to get essential medical care?
Jackie Lambie has been conned. No doubt about it.
C
It is a bit weird.
At least it’s shut Lambie up with her high and mighty posturing as if she’s not a politician and can’t be lumped in with the rest of them!
Cracker of a story on Shorten and Turnbull:
Mooney revealed that shortly after the Federal Election in May, the former prime minister asked Mr Shorten to join him and his wife Lucy at their Point Piper home, saying he knew what it was like to be defeated.
Mr Shorten agreed, making sure to pick up some bottles of wine before dinner as a polite gesture.
He stopped a local BWS, spending about $100 on a bottle of red and a bottle of white.
‘The known protocol is you give the wine, they’ll put it to one side then Malcolm will probably get the good stuff out of the cellar,’ Mooney told hosts Jess and Chris.
Upon his arrival, Mr Turnbull took the wine off Mr Shorten’s hands, before offering him a drink from a different bottle – as expected.
Assuming it would be a nice drop, Mr Shorten memorised the wine label so he could look it up later, Mooney said.
‘They have a lovely dinner. Lucy was wonderful company, Malcolm was there.
‘[Mr Shorten] leaves, he’s in the cab on the way home and he Googles the bottle of wine that Malcolm served up. It was a $17 bottle,’ he said prompting laughter from the hosts.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8010811/Malcolm-Turnbull-hosted-Bill-Shorten-dinner-served-17-bottle-wine.html
‘Bushfire Bill says:
Monday, February 17, 2020 at 10:01 pm
What possible National Security implications could arise out of allowing individual asylum seekers to get essential medical care?
Jackie Lambie has been conned. No doubt about it.’
That thought crossed my mind.
Did anyone brief Hamish that it’s a people’s forum?
mh
Your point being?
What happened to the non politician panelists? They’ve been forgotten about.
In some 55 years of driving, I’ve had one Ford (a ’63 Falcon two speed automatic that wouldn’t get out of first gear) and a Holden Torana (can’t remember much about it other than it was a heap). After those experiences, I brought a number of Japanese-made cars. Since the ’80s I’ve only had German-made cars, they have without exception been exceptional. It’s a shame to see the demise of GMH but it in my view did not produce a quality product. My old man said that the Germans are excellent engineers – he was right.
bw
That he shut up and let the invited audience ask the questions.
mh
Ah. Interesting point. And true as to fact…
OTOH, I was rather enjoying the panel discussion because it was doing more than a series of one liner gotchas but a respectful, complex and nuanced discussion.
They’re referring to Question Time.
Sad to say that the problem with QT is not only the stupud answers. It’s also the stupid questions.
BB:
[“We make shit cars, designed by dumb rev-heads, that no-one with any sense wants to buy.”]
I think he was right.
My dream would be that Australia has at least one EV factory.
Now Katie Allen is being allowed to talk for two long.
It’s always amusing to watch coalition MPs who know better trying to defend the stupidity of this government.
Maybe two or three, even.
at the end of the day, at the setting of the sun, bandt got a positive write-up in “the land” & in “farm online” and albanese didn’t. maybe next time, after the alp convention. meanwhile, bandt has received a couple of invitations to address farmers.
for what its worth to st albo’s high school lunchroom, the greens real agriculture policy can be read here here :- https://greens.org.au/policies/agriculture
i am not a member of the greens, i’m a conservative anarchist. -a.v.
Saying that the stock market reacting to the banking RC isn’t necessarily putting a price on trust. It’s just the market reacting.
I actually knew Katie Allen when she worked at the Murdoch Children’s Research Institute, I just didn’t realise during the election when she was running to replace O’Dwyer that it was the same person.
Boerwar
Forget about Strayan made EVs we have been ‘deindustrialising’ for decades. Manufacturing is out as our future is being happy little low paid service industry plebs. It has been decreed.
There were an awful lot of really bad Holdens. Bad by design. Handling. Braking. Noise Fuel consumption. Plain irritating stuff like door knobs in the wrong place.
Since 2000 they got better. But I have been driven in a few late model Holdens and they still feel.. unrefined. Clunky.
Cud I was interested in getting that source about the cost of the NBN if you have it.
Oh dear 😆
av
Here are the direct consequences of Greens policies as per the Australian Greens policy statements combined with public statements by Greens politicians.
Not a lot of these are listed as such, for obvious political reasons.
I bet you anything you like that Bandt will NOT be parading this list at his various ‘friendly’ meetings with farmers.
1. Massive reduction in irrigation allocations throughout the MDB. (Clear implication of various Greens statements on irrigation offtake in the MDB).
2. Closing down the cotton industry.(Clear implication of removing all GMOs from the environment. Australian cotton is GMO cotton). Add cuts to irrigation, see 1 above. Add various statements about how cotton should not be grown in arid regions using irrigation. Same arguments applied to olive and almond industries would see those industries closed down as well.
3. Ban on all land clearing. Clear policy statement.
4. Mandatory provision of unspecified ecosystem services. These services are to managed by a national Ecosystem Services regulator with monitoring and prosecution powers. All this is in the policy statements. (This one is potentially as long as a piece of string and potentially hugely intrusive to, and disruptive, of farm management).
5. Closing down of all feedlots, piggeries, etc. Animal cruelty stuff. Plain as day.
6. Ban on live cattle, sheep, camel and goat exports. Official policy.
7. Probable ban on rodeos, camp drafts and the like. Read the animal cruelty stuff and rodeos will not survive. Flat racing cannot be far behind if the animal cruelty principles are applied.
8. Effective closing down of all GMO research and deployment in Australia. (Why bother? It would go overseas.)
9. Bans on various chemicals. Round Up would almost certainly go.
10. Closing down all native forestry operations. Straight policy statement.
11. Ban on grazing in reserves. Ditto.
12. Ban on shooting in reserves. Ditto.
13. Immediate ban on mulesing. See animal cruelty.
14. Effective closure of the roo industry? See various comments on cruelty to joeys, etc).
15. Elimination of the dairy and beef cattle and sheep flock if methane cannot be controlled by other means. Clear policy statement.
16. Effectively, no new dams. Ditto.
17. Closing down the coal industry. Ditto.
18. Closing down the uranium industry. Ditto.
19. Closing down defence. The current formulation is that Defence will be reduced to a Light Mobile Force. The Greens have never done anything at all but complain and neg any and all defence equipment buys.
‘Political donations being raised on Q and A.
Labor Clare O’Neill claims these donations are not buying influence and do not affect policy.
A titter of disbelief from the audience.
Liberal Kate Ellis essentially runs the same line. Same response from the audience.
poroti
The McMansions migration ponzi scheme…
E. G. Theodore @ #1314 Monday, February 17th, 2020 – 9:58 pm
And that word is … ‘doddypoll’
I like this new format where you get these interview vignettes cut into the show, and throws to experts in the audience.
av- ‘I’m a conservative anarchist.
No you’re not. You’re an oxy moron.
Player One:
This is a silly question. To see why, try this one.
If you had a choice of preferencing:
1. Frackers who are not racists but are against gay marriage
2.Frackers who are proven racists but are in favor of gay marriage
Who would you choose? Answer must be binary
—————————-
The answer is fuck im all.
I don’t know what you are playing with Player one but you need to stop it.
Well that was a weird Qanda, but still interesting. Next week, China.
Peter Stanton @ #1347 Monday, February 17th, 2020 – 10:39 pm
Pigs might fly.
Boerwar
That’s us, living it up on the credit card. Will be a cracker of a reckoning.
poroti
says:
Monday, February 17, 2020 at 10:43 pm
Boerwar
The McMansions migration ponzi scheme…
That’s us, living it up on the credit card. Will be a cracker of a reckoning.
__________________________
how is it a ponzi scheme? It’s certainly better than the alternative of hollowing out the country and doing a Japan.