Call of the board: the territories

Zooming in on the federal election results for the three seats of the Australian Capital Territory and the two of the Northern Territory, all of which were won by Labor.

Wherein we finally wrap up the Call of the Board series, a slowly unfolding state-by-state round-up every seat result from last year’s federal election. Here we tie up the loose ends of the territories, where Labor achieved a clean sweep of five seats – an essentially foregone conclusion for the Australian Capital Territory (which went from two to three seats at this election), but a strong result for them in the Northern Territory (which may be set to lose its second at the next). Previous episodes of the series dealt with Sydney (here and here), regional New South Wales, Melbourne, regional Victoria, south-east Queensland, regional Queensland, Western Australia and South Australia and Tasmania.

Solomon (Labor 3.1%; 3.0% swing to CLP): The always marginal seat that covers Darwin has only gone the way of the winning party once out of the last four elections (in 2013), this time returning Luke Gosling after he gained it for Labor in 2016. Gosling’s 6.0% winning margin off a 7.4% swing in 2016 was the clearest win in the history of a highly marginal seat, the previous record having been Dave Tollner’s 2.8% win for the Country Liberal Party in 2004. This meant he had enough change to record the seat’s second-biggest margin even after a 3.0% swing back to the Country Liberals. As the map to the right illustrates, the pattern of swings in the seat reflected broader themes from the election: the affluent area around the city centre swung to Labor, but the lower-income suburbs of the north went the other way, and the more conservative new suburbia of Palmerston went further still.

Lingiari (Labor 5.5%; 2.7% swing to CLP): Warren Snowdon retained the remainder-of-NT seat of Lingiari, which he has held without interruption since 2001, his closest shave in that time being a 0.9% margin in 2013. The swings in the two Northern Territory seats have been closely matched at the last election, with a 7.5% blowout in Lingiari in 2016 followed by a 2.7% correction this time. There have been occasions in the past where swings varied widely between Alice Springs and Katherine on the one hand and the remote communities in the other, but not this time.

Bean (Labor 7.5%; 1.3% swing to Liberal): The ACT’s new third seat was created entirely from territory that was formerly in the Canberra electorate, whose member Gai Brodtmann did not seek re-election. David Smith, who had previously filled Katy Gallagher’s Senate vacancy when she fell foul of section 44 in May 2018, had no trouble holding Bean for Labor in the face of a slight swing. Left-wing independent Jamie Christie scored a creditable 8.3%, contributing to solid drops on the primary vote for both major parties.

Canberra (Labor 17.1%; 4.1% swing to Labor): The Canberra electorate covers the central third of the capital, and might be regarded as the true “new” seat since it drew territory from both of the previous electorates. Like Darwin, Canberra offered a miniature reflection of national trend in that the city’s inner area moved solidly further to the left, while the suburbs swung to the Liberals. This was reflected in a 4.6% primary vote increase for the Greens, reducing the gap with the Liberals to 27.8% to 23.3%. This is the lowest yet recorded in an ACT seat, but with the Liberal how-to-vote directing preferences to Labor ahead of the Greens, they would probably have remained out of contention if they had made up the difference. With the departure of Gai Brodtmann, its new Labor member is Alicia Payne, who dropped 2.0% on the primary vote to 40.5%.

Fenner (Labor 10.6%; 1.3% swing to Liberal): Labor’s Andrew Leigh suffered a slight swing from similar primary vote numbers to 2016, the main disturbance being the appearance of the United Australia Party with 4.1%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,398 comments on “Call of the board: the territories”

Comments Page 26 of 28
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  1. Richard Willingham
    @rwillingham
    ·
    1h
    GORN! Casey Council to be sacked, after Cabinet agreed this afternoon to turf them.
    @abcmelbourne
    #springst

  2. Kronomex says:
    Monday, February 17, 2020 at 6:01 pm
    Boerwar, it’s time to shut the fuck up about the greens for awhile! Your obsession with them is really becoming annoying.

    And…

    Why aren’t you also telling Rex and Peg to ‘shut the fuck up’?

    BW is pointing out the implications of the Greens strategy and Rex and Peg are trying all sorts of distractions/deflections to stop this expose.

  3. poroti

    From the SPC article you linked this just sums them up…

    I think you can understand why we are being very cautious, very careful about handing out taxpayers’ money

    Yeah sure Joe.

  4. I noticed today that Victoria Police drive VW station wagons

    Apropos of Holden announcement to close the brand

    NB Karen Andrews, Minister for Industry, was a staffer for Joe Hocking

  5. Note the difference.

    Car Industry workers can go whistle in the wind.

    Coal workers are a protected species.

    Thanks Joe Hockey. You get your quarry.

  6. Nath (in relation to NBN):

    I don’t think so. I can’t see why a progressive would be opposed to companies running businesses.

    A Network is not a business; instead it is a means by which business is conducted.

    No sensible person would support companies running non-businesses, such as networks.

  7. lizzie

    …The beavers’ positive impact includes one family constructing six dams upstream of the flood-prone village of East Budleigh. The dams have slowed the flow of floodwater through the village, reducing “peak flows” during flood events.
    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/feb/17/beavers-cut-flooding-and-pollution-and-boost-wildlife-populations?CMP=twt_a-environment_b-gdneco

    I wonder if the English beavers will ever emulate their Canadian cousins?

    The beavers in Canada’s Wood Buffalo National Park have been hard at work for decades, and their tree-chomping labor has paid off. The furry architects have created the largest beaver dam in the world.

    The dam, which is about a half a mile long, is so massive it even shows up on satellite images. It remained hidden within the Alberta wilderness until 2007, when a researcher spotted it while looking at Google Earth. The beavers are currently building new dams nearby, which when joined with the main structure could add over 300 more feet to its length.

    https://www.atlasobscura.com/places/worlds-largest-beaver-dam

  8. “I love a dug up country, a land of dusty holes, of spin, hacks and ‘donations’, of pollies fondling coal. I love the lack of vision, I love the acid sea, we’ll all be stuffed if this goes on, how’s that for poetry.” – @PadYeo (with apologies to Dorothea Mackeller)

  9. “You took our election promise at face value? Suckers!”

    The NSW Nationals’ signature election policy aimed at wooing older voters in the bush has come under fire, with carers and disability pensioners excluded from accessing a $250 seniors travel card.

    National MPs and candidates heavily spruiked the Regional Seniors Travel Card in the lead up to the March 2019 election, promising seniors a pre-loaded $250 debit card to help pay for taxis, fuel and regional train travel.

    But with the scheme’s rollout now underway, the Berejiklian government has faced a backlash over the program’s eligibility requirements, with the finer print revealing only aged pensioners or Commonwealth Seniors Health Card holders were eligible.

    https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/politics/nsw/berejiklian-government-faces-backlash-over-regional-seniors-travel-card-20200217-p541jl.html

  10. ‘Pegasus says:
    Monday, February 17, 2020 at 6:54 pm

    BW

    How would I know whether individual Territory Greens are racists?

    You bang on all day, every day stereotyping all Greens, including all inner city Greens about their carbon footprint. Smearing every single individual Greens supporter or member without knowing the lives these individuals live. I have said this to you already.

    You have no problem doing that, none at all. What a hoot you are.’

    Killing Indigenous people young is not a hoot.

  11. “So, how do those people who were saying wtte what a great guy RFS volunteer Paul Parker is for giving the PM the finger feel about him now it has been reported he is a PHON supporter? Or, was the assumption, he was a Labor ‘hero’?”

    Peg, you are really starting to come across as a worthlessly nasty, small minded, piece of crap.

    Was bad enough when you were simply an annoying twit. 🙁

  12. ‘Pegasus says:
    Monday, February 17, 2020 at 6:54 pm

    BW

    How would I know whether individual Territory Greens are racists?

    You bang on all day, every day stereotyping all Greens

    Posted without a hint of self awareness.

  13. imacca @ #1265 Monday, February 17th, 2020 – 7:52 pm

    “So, how do those people who were saying wtte what a great guy RFS volunteer Paul Parker is for giving the PM the finger feel about him now it has been reported he is a PHON supporter? Or, was the assumption, he was a Labor ‘hero’?”

    Peg, you are really starting to come across as a worthlessly nasty, small minded, piece of crap.

    Was bad enough when you were simply an annoying twit. 🙁

    I may not agree with all Parker’s politics, but he’s a doer and puts his life on the line to protect his family and his community. For that, I’ll say go you good thing.

    The keyboard worriers of PB should have a look at themselves and what they actually contribute to making Australia better.

  14. imacca says:
    Monday, February 17, 2020 at 7:52 pm
    “So, how do those people who were saying wtte what a great guy RFS volunteer Paul Parker is for giving the PM the finger feel about him now it has been reported he is a PHON supporter? Or, was the assumption, he was a Labor ‘hero’?”

    Peg, you are really starting to come across as a worthlessly nasty, small minded, piece of crap.

    Was bad enough when you were simply an annoying twit.
    ________________________________

    My thought when I originally saw the video was that this guy was reflecting what many people caught dealing with the fires in real time felt. I did not wonder what his politics were. When I saw someone post that he was a fan of Pauline Hanson my thought was that this reflected the complete disenchantment with politicians that people on the front line had.

    The idea of politicising it – apart from being unhappy about the blockages to climate change action by the government itself – did not enter my mind. I suspect it did not enter the minds of many here, whatever their stripe. I never thought of him as a “Labor hero” – just like I did not think about the politics of the woman whose hand Scummison insisted on shaking.

    The bottom line is that this government is letting down ordinary Australians in extraordinary ways. The bottom line is not who is right among the different groups who do not sit around the cabinet table.

  15. Meanwhile on the floating Petri dish ..

    #BREAKING: 99 NEW cases of coronavirus confirmed from on board the ship. The total is now 454. At least 24 Australians are among them. @abcnews

  16. ‘Greensborough Growler says:
    Monday, February 17, 2020 at 7:49 pm

    Boerwar @ #1263 Monday, February 17th, 2020 – 7:45 pm

    I am informed that, if required, an effective way of removing beaver dams is using dynamite.

    or Wombats.’

    That had not crossed my mind. I swear.

  17. I don’t support PHON politics. They want to take away people’s rights.

    Parker is an Australian hero for the quote.

    You can be an LNP supporter and say the same thing. I am sure Malcolm Turnbull cheered. 🙂

    Edit: we can conclude PHON voters are not “Quiet Australians”

  18. And the first evacuation flight by the US looks like a flying Petri dish…

    “American learned evacuees were infected shortly before boarding a chartered flight.

    Fourteen Americans who were evacuated from a cruise ship in Japan on Monday were placed in segregated areas of a chartered flight after they were found to have the new coronavirus shortly before boarding the plane to the United States, American officials said.

    The passengers were among more than 300 Americans aboard a cruise ship that was been quarantined in Yokohama for more than 10 days. United States officials initially said they would not allow infected people to board the evacuation flights, but appeared to reverse that decision early Monday.

    “During the evacuation process, after passengers had disembarked the ship and initiated transport to the airport, U.S. officials received notice that 14 passengers, who had been tested 2-3 days earlier, had tested positive for COVID-19,” the State Department and Department of Health and Human Services said in a joint statement, referring to the disease caused by the new coronavirus.

    The 14 infected passengers were moved into a specialized containment area on the evacuation aircraft, where they were to be isolated and monitored. They had been found to be asymptomatic and “fit to fly” before the evacuation, according to the statement.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/17/world/asia/china-coronavirus.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage

  19. Greensborough Growler @ #1264 Monday, February 17th, 2020 – 7:55 pm

    imacca @ #1265 Monday, February 17th, 2020 – 7:52 pm

    “So, how do those people who were saying wtte what a great guy RFS volunteer Paul Parker is for giving the PM the finger feel about him now it has been reported he is a PHON supporter? Or, was the assumption, he was a Labor ‘hero’?”

    Peg, you are really starting to come across as a worthlessly nasty, small minded, piece of crap.

    Was bad enough when you were simply an annoying twit. 🙁

    I may not agree with all Parker’s politics, but he’s a doer and puts his life on the line to protect his family and his community. For that, I’ll say go you good thing.

    The keyboard worriers of PB should have a look at themselves and what they actually contribute to making Australia better.

    Well, I vote Labor, so that’s a start.

  20. Just checked out Rex’s girlfriend Tina Arena singing Boys in Town on you tube for the fire relief concert.
    Not bad, thought she would be a better dancer and did not like her pants but vocally pretty good.

  21. From today’s Crikey email, things look grim for Ch7.

    Seven shares hit a new record low of 22.7 cents last week and have been trading around the 25 cent level for much of the past month. With more than half a billion dollars in debt (as of June 30), just $103 million in equity and sinking revenues and profits, Seven’s current market value of $384 million is not enough to cover its debt (although that figure will be reduced in Tuesday’s report).

    Almost $4 billion in write downs in the past nine years has destroyed value that has in turn destroyed the once dominant hold Seven had on the Australian TV market.

    In fact, at this level, investors are saying it is highly doubtful that the network and the company will be around at the finish of ratings in early December in its present form.

    The only thing that can prevent that would be a recapitalisation by Kerry Stokes (the main shareholder through his company, Seven Group Holdings) and/or others aimed at slashing the company’s debt by injecting more equity.

  22. This whingeing by Karen Andrews and the organ grinder, Morrison, that they ‘weren’t told’ of the pending GM boning if Holden, is breathtaking.

    They created some mega department of Industry, Science, Communications, Washing Machines and Wankfests And wonder why those covered by the wide tent are pissing in, not pissing out.

    Many corporations are looking at this bunch of indolents, led by the nose by banjo players, and voting with their feet.

  23. Confessions @ #1283 Monday, February 17th, 2020 – 8:24 pm

    From today’s Crikey email, things look grim for Ch7.

    Seven shares hit a new record low of 22.7 cents last week and have been trading around the 25 cent level for much of the past month. With more than half a billion dollars in debt (as of June 30), just $103 million in equity and sinking revenues and profits, Seven’s current market value of $384 million is not enough to cover its debt (although that figure will be reduced in Tuesday’s report).

    Almost $4 billion in write downs in the past nine years has destroyed value that has in turn destroyed the once dominant hold Seven had on the Australian TV market.

    In fact, at this level, investors are saying it is highly doubtful that the network and the company will be around at the finish of ratings in early December in its present form.

    The only thing that can prevent that would be a recapitalisation by Kerry Stokes (the main shareholder through his company, Seven Group Holdings) and/or others aimed at slashing the company’s debt by injecting more equity.

    Advertising is down because of the economy.

  24. Fess, they could inject ‘more equity’ into Ch7 by getting rid of the climate denialist Samantha Armytage.

    What an Embarrasment. And so out of touch with what people are living with, that sensible people reach for the remote when the denialist schtick – probably mandated by Stokes and his coal mines – commences.

  25. LOL

    Peter van Onselen@vanOnselenP
    ·
    21m
    I’m not necessarily in favour of subsidising the building of cars in Australia. BUT I also won’t “hit out” at General Motors canning Holden. The PM does exactly that, even though he was part of a cabinet that cancelled manufacturing subsidies that would have prevented this…

  26. Channels 7 and 9 lead the pack with disgusting ‘reality television’ shows being their main drawcards. Nothing is too grotesque for these sleaze merchants.

  27. Federal government should get out of school funding, says former top bureaucrat

    https://www.theage.com.au/national/federal-government-should-get-out-of-school-funding-says-former-top-bureaucrat-20200217-p541kz.html

    “The federal government should get out of schools and let state governments decide the appropriate mix of funding between public and private schools, the nation’s former top mandarin has said.

    Martin Parkinson, who helmed the federal bureaucracy for four years before retiring in August last year, said voters needed one level of government to hold accountable for declining school results.

    Speaking to a forum on federal and state finances at NSW State Parliament on Monday, Dr Parkinson said states should take on sole responsibility for the early learning, primary and high school sectors, while the federal government should do TAFE and universities.
    ::::
    Head of the Gonski Institute for Education and former NSW education minister Adrian Piccoli backed Dr Parkinson’s calls to end the funding split.

    “You would hope that his views have some currency. You should have the same jurisdiction funding all schools on the same basis,” he said. “You would get much greater equity because funding is based on the enrolment of the school [and] not what it used to be, which is special deals.”

  28. Bellwether:

    The same 538 that gave Clinton 71.4% chance of winning against Trump? No thanks.

    If you don’t understand what 71.4% means then there is absolutely nothing suitable for your consumption.

  29. Pegasus @ #1293 Monday, February 17th, 2020 – 8:44 pm

    Federal government should get out of school funding, says former top bureaucrat

    https://www.theage.com.au/national/federal-government-should-get-out-of-school-funding-says-former-top-bureaucrat-20200217-p541kz.html

    “The federal government should get out of schools and let state governments decide the appropriate mix of funding between public and private schools, the nation’s former top mandarin has said.

    Martin Parkinson, who helmed the federal bureaucracy for four years before retiring in August last year, said voters needed one level of government to hold accountable for declining school results.

    Speaking to a forum on federal and state finances at NSW State Parliament on Monday, Dr Parkinson said states should take on sole responsibility for the early learning, primary and high school sectors, while the federal government should do TAFE and universities.
    ::::
    Head of the Gonski Institute for Education and former NSW education minister Adrian Piccoli backed Dr Parkinson’s calls to end the funding split.

    “You would hope that his views have some currency. You should have the same jurisdiction funding all schools on the same basis,” he said. “You would get much greater equity because funding is based on the enrolment of the school [and] not what it used to be, which is special deals.”

    His sentiment is spot on. But, there’s this thingy called the Constitution.

  30. Prayer is all we have left…

    Jakarta: Indonesian Health Minister Terawan Agus Putranto has said Indonesians should keep praying to God to ensure the country remains free of Covid-19 and defended his country’s handling of the outbreak against international criticism.

    Indonesia has seen just 104 people tested for the virus in a nation of about 270 million people.

    Terawan cited “efficiency in budgeting” as an explanation for why the country had not conducted further tests.

    https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/indonesian-minister-blames-budget-efficiency-for-low-coronavirus-test-rate-20200217-p541ma.html

  31. Player One:

    This is a silly question. To see why, try this one.

    If you had a choice of preferencing:

    1. Frackers who are not racists but are against gay marriage
    2.Frackers who are proven racists but are in favor of gay marriage

    Who would you choose? Answer must be binary

    Correct answer is 1 and it’s not even close.

  32. E. G. Theodore @ #1297 Monday, February 17th, 2020 – 8:58 pm

    Player One:

    This is a silly question. To see why, try this one.

    If you had a choice of preferencing:

    1. Frackers who are not racists but are against gay marriage
    2.Frackers who are proven racists but are in favor of gay marriage

    Who would you choose? Answer must be binary

    Correct answer is 1 and it’s not even close.

    I always preferred frangers without any holes.

  33. It’s amazing what prayer can do. With a population of some 270 million and with 1.2 million Chinese visitors annually, Indonesian authorities have not reported a single case of the coronavirus. It would, therefore, seem that the 1.23 million Australians who visit annually are safe to do so(?):

    [“We also say prayers together that no coronavirus enters. We hope our country is protected [by God]. And I am sure the prayers of all Indonesians will be blessed by the almighty God…We continue to pray that God gives protection to our country.”]

    https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/indonesian-minister-blames-budget-efficiency-for-low-coronavirus-test-rate-20200217-p541ma.html

    https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/02/indonesia-fears-grow-coronavirus-threat-200216163536214.html

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