Essential Research leadership ratings

Essential’s latest leadership ratings find Scott Morrison continuing to struggle, despite being back to level pegging on preferred prime minister.

The Guardian reports on yet another fortnightly Essential Research poll with no voting intention numbers, but we does at least get the monthly leadership ratings. These show Scott Morrison down a point on approval to 39% and steady on disapproval at 52%, after the previous poll respectively had him down five and up nine. Anthony Albanese is respectively down two to 41% and up one to 31%, and he has lost his 39-36 lead as preferred prime minister, with the two now tied on 36%. The BludgerTrack trends on the sidebar have now been updated with these results.

Further questions on bushfire recovery, sports rorts and coronavirus don’t seem to have turned up anything too mindblowing, but the publication of the full report may turn up something hopefully later today.

UPDATE: Full report here. The most interesting of the supplementary findings for mine relate to the budget surplus, the consistent theme of which is that respondents aren’t that fussed about it: 79% agree spending on bushfire recovery is more important than maintaining it, with 11% disagreeing; 65% say it would be understandable if the coronavirus impact meant it wasn’t achieved, with 18% disagreeing; and 57% agree it was wrong for the government to discuss the surplus in the present tense before the election, with 24% disagreeing.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,911 comments on “Essential Research leadership ratings”

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  1. I think the Socialist thing is being way over hyped here. Not because it isn’t a turn off for a significant number of people, I don’t doubt that at all. Why I think it is over hyped is because I think it is already factored in with Sanders. This isn’t 2016 when he went in to the primaries as a largely unknown candidate. With the coverage he got then, since, and again now, somehow I think people who are interested enough that they’re going to show up have heard by now from someone or somewhere that Sanders is a Socialist. In spite of that, he still polls strongly and has decent favourability. I saw a suggestion on here this morning that his poll numbers were somehow being boosted by Trump supporters. That is really taking straw clutching to a whole new level, and, I might ad, giving Trump supporters way too much credit, thinking they are somehow gaming the polls.

  6. Bellwether @ #384 Tuesday, February 11th, 2020 – 4:34 pm

    phoenixRED @ #375 Tuesday, February 11th, 2020 – 4:28 pm

    Bellwether says: Tuesday, February 11, 2020 at 4:25 pm

    Kakaru is another of those with the 4k UltraHD crystal ball that I mentioned earlier. It’s absolutely beyond belief the crap some people are dishing up at the moment.

    **************************************************************

    Still a LONG way till Nov 2nd 2020 – ANYTHING and ANYONE may still happen !!!!!

    Absolutely correct and also completely obvious! Except to the Kakarus here, I don’t want to insult him/her but really, stop with the absurd assumptions.

    I mean, Kakaru is only an American after all! 😆

  7. Teetotallers of the world, take that smug look off your faces.

    There are several studies looking at the effects of alcohol intake on the brain. A new study adds to the existing knowledge. The large study with around 11,651 participants from United Kingdom shows that each gram of alcohol consumed could lead to around a week of ageing of the brain.

    The new study titled, “Association of relative brain age with tobacco smoking, alcohol consumption, and genetic variants” was published in the latest issue of the journal Scientific Reports this week.

    https://www.news-medical.net/news/20200202/Daily-alcohol-consumption-ages-brain.aspx

  8. OmG cud, long posts are fine – espesh if they are full of information from an expert in the subject. But reposting it the next day?

    Your post was in response to my question; as airlines continue to cut the level of service they offer and peeps get tired of being treated like cattle, and emissions need to be reduced, are people becoming more interested in interstate HSR (slower than a flight but not excessively so – and easier simpler and more enjoyable travel) linking cities and regions. Where tunnels are not required, routes exist, and little land needs to be bought (and is cheap). Is the case for interstate HSR improving? Could it become feasible?

    Your reply was that HSRs are not for aircorridors and do not compete with airlines – both of which you later admitted was not correct.. with a caveat that HSRs are not built with the specific purpose of replacing an air corridor… The sums don’t stack up. Fair enough.

    Now, in answer to your question, no I am not excited by the Newcastle to Sydney HSR (and the other routes u mentioned), we almost all agree it has merit yet, despite being on the cards since the 90’s (was it Bob Carr?) is still, what? a concept plan? And I don’t live there anymore. I live in Adelaide and often work in the regions between Adelaide and Melbourne (and once in the regions beyond Sydney, like Bathurst, Canberra, Goulburn, Wagga). I see regions and cities that would greatly benefit from an interconnected HSR.

  9. “I’m going to make it all simple for you: the “frontrunner” is defined as whoever leads the national polling averages at any given time.”

    ***

    Sanders leads national primary race, new poll shows

    (CNN) – Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders tops the Democratic primary race, according to a new Quinnipiac national poll released on Monday.

    Sanders, with 25% support among Democrats and Democratic-leaning independent voters, has ticked up four percentage points since a late January poll from Quinnipiac, while other candidates have lost support.

    Following Sanders are former Vice President Joe Biden with 17% support, former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg at 15%, Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren with 14%, former South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg with 10% and Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar with 4%. No other candidate receives above 2% in the poll.

    While Biden is down nine percentage points since January, Bloomberg has seen significant growth, up 7 percentage points — nearly doubling his 8% support.

    Bloomberg is doing especially well among black Democratic voters, with 22% support, rivaling Biden’s 27%. The former vice president has been known for doing well among black voters throughout the 2020 campaign cycle. Biden had 49% support among black voters in January, with the latest polll marking his biggest loss among any demographic group since the January poll.

    Sanders’ lead comes the day before the New Hampshire primary, a state in which he is doing well in the polls, and on the heels of a strong showing in Iowa.

    Other national polls have shown Bloomberg climbing while Biden’s support wanes, but most statewide polls — including in New Hampshire — don’t include Bloomberg since he won’t be on the ballot.

    But more than half (56%) of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independent voters say they still might change their mind before the primary; 42% have made up their mind.

    The Quinnipiac University poll, conducted February 5-9 among 1,519 self-identified registered voters nationwide with a margin of error of +/- 2.5 percentage points. The survey includes 665 Democratic voters and independent voters who lean Democratic with a margin of error of +/- 3.8 percentage points.

    https://edition.cnn.com/2020/02/10/politics/sanders-leads-national-quinnipiac-poll/index.html

  10. C@tmomma @ #406 Tuesday, February 11th, 2020 – 5:27 pm

    Bellwether @ #384 Tuesday, February 11th, 2020 – 4:34 pm

    phoenixRED @ #375 Tuesday, February 11th, 2020 – 4:28 pm

    Bellwether says: Tuesday, February 11, 2020 at 4:25 pm

    Kakaru is another of those with the 4k UltraHD crystal ball that I mentioned earlier. It’s absolutely beyond belief the crap some people are dishing up at the moment.

    **************************************************************

    Still a LONG way till Nov 2nd 2020 – ANYTHING and ANYONE may still happen !!!!!

    Absolutely correct and also completely obvious! Except to the Kakarus here, I don’t want to insult him/her but really, stop with the absurd assumptions.

    I mean, Kakaru is only an American after all! 😆

    Along with 327 million others, what’s your point there, sorry? That’s a shame though, I was going to ask him for the name of the winner of next November’s Melbourne Cup but he maybe doesn’t follow it.

  11. While I am here; why is the Chief Medical Officer concerning himself with xenophobia? That is not his job. It may explain a few things tho.

  12. MsRebeccaRobins
    @MsRebeccaRobins
    ·
    1h
    #auspol The LNP just confirmed that the Banks will take over the running of the Cashless welfare card to take use of new technology that only the banks can handle a mass transit to the card. It’s coming NO exemptions

  14. “Bernie Sanders is an extreme candidate”

    ***

    What nonsense. There’s nothing extreme about Bernie’s policies.

    Trump is the extremist.

  22. Firefox @ #410 Tuesday, February 11th, 2020 – 5:29 pm

    “I’m going to make it all simple for you: the “frontrunner” is defined as whoever leads the national polling averages at any given time.”

    ***

    Sanders leads national primary race, new poll shows

    (CNN) – Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders tops the Democratic primary race, according to a new Quinnipiac national poll released on Monday.

    Sanders, with 25% support among Democrats and Democratic-leaning independent voters, has ticked up four percentage points since a late January poll from Quinnipiac, while other candidates have lost support.

    Following Sanders are former Vice President Joe Biden with 17% support, former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg at 15%, Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren with 14%, former South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg with 10% and Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar with 4%. No other candidate receives above 2% in the poll.

    While Biden is down nine percentage points since January, Bloomberg has seen significant growth, up 7 percentage points — nearly doubling his 8% support.

    Bloomberg is doing especially well among black Democratic voters, with 22% support, rivaling Biden’s 27%. The former vice president has been known for doing well among black voters throughout the 2020 campaign cycle. Biden had 49% support among black voters in January, with the latest polll marking his biggest loss among any demographic group since the January poll.

    Sanders’ lead comes the day before the New Hampshire primary, a state in which he is doing well in the polls, and on the heels of a strong showing in Iowa.

    Other national polls have shown Bloomberg climbing while Biden’s support wanes, but most statewide polls — including in New Hampshire — don’t include Bloomberg since he won’t be on the ballot.

    But more than half (56%) of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independent voters say they still might change their mind before the primary; 42% have made up their mind.

    The Quinnipiac University poll, conducted February 5-9 among 1,519 self-identified registered voters nationwide with a margin of error of +/- 2.5 percentage points. The survey includes 665 Democratic voters and independent voters who lean Democratic with a margin of error of +/- 3.8 percentage points.

    https://edition.cnn.com/2020/02/10/politics/sanders-leads-national-quinnipiac-poll/index.html

    What happened to mayor Pete’s momentum …?

  24. Bellwether @ #409 Tuesday, February 11th, 2020 – 5:33 pm

    C@tmomma @ #406 Tuesday, February 11th, 2020 – 5:27 pm

    Bellwether @ #384 Tuesday, February 11th, 2020 – 4:34 pm

    phoenixRED @ #375 Tuesday, February 11th, 2020 – 4:28 pm

    Bellwether says: Tuesday, February 11, 2020 at 4:25 pm

    Kakaru is another of those with the 4k UltraHD crystal ball that I mentioned earlier. It’s absolutely beyond belief the crap some people are dishing up at the moment.

    **************************************************************

    Still a LONG way till Nov 2nd 2020 – ANYTHING and ANYONE may still happen !!!!!

    Absolutely correct and also completely obvious! Except to the Kakarus here, I don’t want to insult him/her but really, stop with the absurd assumptions.

    I mean, Kakaru is only an American after all! 😆

    Along with 327 million others, what’s your point there, sorry? That’s a shame though, I was going to ask him for the name of the winner of next November’s Melbourne Cup but he maybe doesn’t follow it.

    Oh, you’re right, Bellwether, Kakaru only has slightly more insight than you, because you have zero. But, hey, Bernie ftw!?! eh? 🙂

  25. Anthony Albanese began the day clarifying the party’s position, only to have other party members suggest alternative positions just an hour later

    So it is still ‘Groundhog Day” .

  27. The Nationals senator Matt Canavan omitted two properties worth more than $1m from his current declaration of interests, declaring “nil” interests in real estate despite owning two houses in Yeppoon, Queensland and Macquarie in Canberra.

    The former resources and northern Australia minister – who quit last week to support a bid by Barnaby Joyce to return to the Nationals leadership – has claimed he was not required to declare the interests in the 46th parliament because he had already done so in the 45th.

    But the registrar of senators’ interests, Rachel Callinan, told Guardian Australia that “senators are required to declare the interests that they hold as at the relevant date”, a fact which suggests that Canavan misinterpreted advice to senators.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/feb/11/matt-canavan-leaves-two-properties-worth-more-than-1m-off-2019-declaration-of-interests

  30. lizzie @ #426 Tuesday, February 11th, 2020 – 6:07 pm

    The Nationals senator Matt Canavan omitted two properties worth more than $1m from his current declaration of interests, declaring “nil” interests in real estate despite owning two houses in Yeppoon, Queensland and Macquarie in Canberra.

    The former resources and northern Australia minister – who quit last week to support a bid by Barnaby Joyce to return to the Nationals leadership – has claimed he was not required to declare the interests in the 46th parliament because he had already done so in the 45th.

    But the registrar of senators’ interests, Rachel Callinan, told Guardian Australia that “senators are required to declare the interests that they hold as at the relevant date”, a fact which suggests that Canavan misinterpreted advice to senators.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/feb/11/matt-canavan-leaves-two-properties-worth-more-than-1m-off-2019-declaration-of-interests

    Matthew Canavan is a smart aleck.

  31. C@tmomma @ #429 Tuesday, February 11th, 2020 – 6:08 pm

    alfred venison @ #412 Tuesday, February 11th, 2020 – 5:39 pm

    i did my part to put pressure on “modern” liberals by signing steggall’s petition. how about you ? and you ? -a.v.

    Why should I? Petitions are a tool used by politicians to get your email address so they can spam you and have approximately zero effect on the government of the day.

    The Silence Steggall campaign begins…

  35. C@tmomma

    So let me get this right. You’re saying because Kakaru is an American ergo he/she has fore knowledge of the outcome of the Democratic Primaries and possibly the US 2020 Election. I’m sorry, but I’m far too cynical to listen to the idle musings of an amateur clairvoyant and I’m not about to make any predictions on the outcome myself either. If I did I could rightly be considered absolutely mental.

  37. Tom Iggulden
    @tomiggulden
    ·
    9h
    The Centre for Public Integrity says the source of $100m in political donations at the last election can’t be traced. Extraordinary.

  38. C@tmommasays:
    Tuesday, February 11, 2020 at 6:09 pm
    Matthew Canavan is a smart aleck.
    —————————–

    Nah, just an aleck

  42. Hi, a.v.

    What action did you take?

    I’m assuming you meant ‘moderate’ Liberals rather than ‘modern’ ones – you’re wasting your time with the latter.

  43. And if they can’t get a job because there aren’t any available, then what?

    CANBERRA, Australia—The federal government plans to set up English classes in overseas U.N. refugee camps to give potential immigrants a better shot at getting a job when they get to Australia.

    Acting Immigration Minister and Minister for Population Alan Tudge has decried a link between unacceptably high rates of unemployment amongst refugees in Australia and a lack of English skills.

    “Long-term ­welfare dependence is debilitating for anyone, be they a refugee, long-term citizen or anyone else. We have to do better,” Mr. Tudge will say in a speech at the Menzies Research Centre in Melbourne, The Australian reported on Friday.

    “Data shows that when identifying reasons for finding it difficult to get a job, close to 60 percent of humanitarian entrants said ‘my English isn’t good enough yet.’”

    A trial of English-language classes in overseas camps to upskill refugees before they arrive in Australia is due to begin on July 1.

    More than 70 percent of refugees are unemployed a year after arriving in Australia, the government says.

    https://www.ntd.com/aust-to-trial-english-classes-for-refugees_432412.html

  45. More than $100m donated to political parties from hidden sources in election year

    The Coalition hid about 40% of its income over two decades and Labor about 28%, the Centre for Public Integrity says

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/feb/11/more-than-100m-donated-to-political-parties-from-hidden-sources-in-election-year

    “More than $100m in political donations from hidden sources was donated to the major parties during the election year, the greatest single amount in two decades.
    :::
    It found that in the 2018-19 election year, the major parties received $103m in income from hidden sources, about 31.4% of their total income.

    In the past two decades, the major parties have received $1bn in dark money, representing about 35% of their total income.
    :::
    The analysis comes as the federal government delayed voting on a motion to pass the Greens bill for a national integrity commission. The Greens had proposed a federal integrity commission with broad powers compared to the Coalition’s model, which critics say is weak and narrowly focused.
    ::::
    The government is yet to produce draft legislation for its proposed federal anti-corruption body, despite promising to do so last year.”

  46. Increasing Newstart, cash incentives to get back to work for mums, and an education to employment first-year incentive are the types of programs that would be a shot straight in the arm of the economy. The people who got the money would spend it right away and so the multiplier effect would be maximised.

    Boris’ spending plan, tax cuts like the Donald’s or a hand-up for people on the edge of a transition is something reasonable people can disagree about.

    What we can’t disagree on is that this is the biggest, most immediate crisis since the Rudd government had to deal with the onset of the global financial crisis; it is time to bite the bullet.

    It is a paradox, but a right-wing government has to do left-wing things for all of us to prosper. Stop worshipping the surplus and just get on with it. We need to be driving people to the shops and building both the platform for a decade of growth and the infrastructure of the future.

    https://www.theage.com.au/business/the-economy/why-the-right-wing-morrison-government-must-do-left-wing-things-for-australia-to-prosper-20200211-p53zqf.html

  48. Bellwether @ #434 Tuesday, February 11th, 2020 – 6:13 pm

    C@tmomma

    So let me get this right. You’re saying because Kakaru is an American ergo he/she has fore knowledge of the outcome of the Democratic Primaries and possibly the US 2020 Election. I’m sorry, but I’m far too cynical to listen to the idle musings of an amateur clairvoyant and I’m not about to make any predictions on the outcome myself either. If I did I could rightly be considered absolutely mental.

    Sorry, but when did ‘idle musings’, and the amateur clairvoyant is just a slur from you, so I’ll ignore it, become outlawed? Political opinion writers do it every day. Why can’t we? Especially if a person has insight? Which doesn’t automatically mean, ‘clairvoyance’.

  50. They’re such a tolerant and magnanimous bunch are the Bernie Crew:

    Some in the room saw Sanders as the true unity candidate. Conor Hannon, a 23-year-old political science student, said he would vote for Sanders in the primary, then probably vote for the Green Party if another candidate won the nomination.

    “He’s not loyal to the party, but when has the party ever been loyal to us?” Hannon said.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/paloma/the-trailer/2020/02/10/the-trailer-sanders-may-be-on-the-verge-of-another-new-hampshire-win-democrats-aren-t-ready-to-get-behind-him/5e414bc488e0fa0a47d9d5bc/

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