Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor

Labor slightly widens the lead it opened in the previous Newspoll, and Anthony Albanese maintains his ascendancy as preferred prime minister despite a slight fall in his personal ratings.

The Australian reports the latest Newspoll has Labor’s two-party lead widening from 51-49 to 52-48 since the previous poll three weeks ago. Both major parties are down on the primary vote, the Coalition by two to 38% and Labor by one to 35%, while the Greens are up one to 13% (equalling their best result since 2011) and One Nation is steady at 4%. Scott Morrison’s personal ratings are unchanged after the hit he suffered in the previous poll, at 37% approval and 59% disapproval, while a spike in Anthony Albanese’s ratings last time has failed to completely stick, with his approval down three to 43% and disapproval up three to 40% (compared with 40% and 41% in the poll before). However, Albanese maintains the lead on preferred prime minister he opened up in the last poll, which is out slightly from 43-39 to 43-38. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1510.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

831 comments on “Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor”

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  2. Windhover @ #341 Monday, February 3rd, 2020 – 1:13 pm

    So, no, if I were being honest I should have said no (and no).

    Ummm. Let me quote what you actually said, since you seem to have forgotten already:

    P1, for reasons unknown, endlessly bores PB with complaints that the ALP has no policies, and specifically no carbon emission policies.

    So, that would be a “yes” to the castigating bit.

    As to the part about Labor having no policies …

    No doubt when policies are announced …

    So, again, that would be a “yes” to admitting Labor currently has no policies on climate change, wouldn’t it?

    So, all up “yes and yes” would have been a more honest response than “no and no”, wouldn’t it?

    But by all means, keep dissembling!

  5. Why not have a rolling programme of Greens leaders? 10 day rotation?

    Try secondments. Start with Joyce.
    In fact, try the political equivalent of Wife Swap, Joyce in for the Greens – SHY into Nationals….

    Oh wait! A political party key party!

  7. Boerwar

    “Why not have a rolling programme of Greens leaders? 10 day rotation?”

    Link it to phases of the moon?

    SK

    I am not anti-Green, and I agree that SHY, like Gillard, has been the subject of some grossly unfair misogynist bullying by aging men who had no place in a federal parliament. However I do not see her as a leader. She does not speak with impact or suasion on issues outside her area of interest. The Greens would be better off with Bandt or Waters. Ludlam, if still interested, would be great, sans Kiwi citizenship.

  8. Bad news for Scott from Marketing.

    The “Woke” Inner City lawyer is likely to be the guest on Insiders.
    Leadership in the spotlight on tonight’s QandA.

    A week of Bandt getting media interviews setting out a real agenda on climate. Good news for Labor. He is an industrial relations lawyer. He understands job creation and workers rights.

  9. guytaur @ #356 Monday, February 3rd, 2020 – 1:40 pm

    So at this stage it looks like Adam Bandt is the new leader.

    Good move. The LNP will have to treat the leader of a party with more respect than just a member of a party.

    Hopefully the Greens media presence will increase as well.

    ‘The LNP will have to treat the leader of a party with more respect’
    They’re gonna need a respect consultant.

  10. Another mysterious miracle for Scomo?

    Speaking to Sky News, constitutional expert Anne Twomey says it is a “complete mystery how the commonwealth has come to this conclusion” in regards to there being a broad executive power to direct a corporate entity (in this case, Sports Australia)

  11. guytaur @ #360 Monday, February 3rd, 2020 – 1:53 pm

    Bad news for Scott from Marketing.

    The “Woke” Inner City lawyer is likely to be the guest on Insiders.
    Leadership in the spotlight on tonight’s QandA.

    A week of Bandt getting media interviews setting out a real agenda on climate. Good news for Labor. He is an industrial relations lawyer. He understands job creation and workers rights.

    Mundo might rejoin the Greens.

  12. mundo @ #363 Monday, February 3rd, 2020 – 1:54 pm

    guytaur @ #360 Monday, February 3rd, 2020 – 1:53 pm

    Bad news for Scott from Marketing.

    The “Woke” Inner City lawyer is likely to be the guest on Insiders.
    Leadership in the spotlight on tonight’s QandA.

    A week of Bandt getting media interviews setting out a real agenda on climate. Good news for Labor. He is an industrial relations lawyer. He understands job creation and workers rights.

    Mundo might rejoin the Greens.

    If the Greens revert to being an ‘environmental’ party, then so might a lot of others. Especially as Labor has recently vacated this space.

    Di Natale was definitely a drag on their appeal outside the inner-city.

  14. I’m not convinced about Bandt because he seems more interested in supporting the ALP than being an independent separate political party. The Liberals wont bother with him and the ALP don’t need to worry too much.

  16. Soc – However I do not see her as a leader.
    I dont disagree with you there. However I would add the word “yet” to the end of your statement. I have seen a lot of improvement and, at 38, potentially more to come.

  18. Mexicanbeemer @ #366 Monday, February 3rd, 2020 – 1:00 pm

    I’m unsure about Bandt because he seems more interested in supporting the ALP than being an independent separate political party.

    Good. The Greens should support the ALP. Or at least, not directly attack the ALP.

    Bandt needs to bring the fight to the Coalition. Perhaps he can be the sort of attack-dog that Labor has lacked, of late.

  19. Player One:

    [‘Labor last won an election in its own right in 2007 with a primary vote of 43.4% It gained only minority government in 2010 with a primary vote of 38%, and has lost each election since, with a primary vote most recently of 34.8%.’]

    Ah. The heady days of Kevin 07. He did have the Midas touch for a while. I don’t think we’ll see a PV like that again. On those figures, Labor will obviously need to lift its primary vote to the high thirties – not an impossible task.

    [‘Part of the problem with Labor PV is due to the rise of minor parties, such as the Greens – 7.8% in 2007, 11.8% in 2010, and most recently 10.2%. Of course, there are other significant minors that complicate the picture, but I think you can probably see the trend.’]

    I blame the Greens, though the preference flow to Labor is around 80%. This is probably Hanson’s last term in parliament. With her gone, I think Labor will attract a portion of those who formerly voted for One Nation. It would also help if Palmer doesn’t splash his cash around in 2022. I don’t know about elsewhere, but in Queensland, his ads reached saturation point & before the election date was confirmed.

    [‘Today, the polls say Labor has 35%, and the Greens have 13%. You figure out how likely it is that Labor will win the next election in its own right with a PV that low. It doesn’t look very likely to me.’]

    Unlike many, I don’t see the Greens as the enemy; for me, it’s dem no-good Tories. On the Greens’ PV, Labor would be likely to get 10.4% by way of preference flow, giving it a primary vote 45.4%, clearly not enough, though it would also be preferenced by other minor parties. So, in essence, I agree with your contention that Labor needs to find a way to lift its PV. Much will depend on how it performs in Parliament, having already got the scalp of McKenzie, with Taylor on the chopping block. I would like to see more of the mongrel in Albanese, no more Mr. Nice Guy.

  20. I wonder if Bob Brown is available?

    Check if there is a removalist van outside Bartletts house…. on its way to Victoria.

  27. @guytaur

    I am predicting Labor could go to the 2022 election advocating a ‘Green New Deal’ style policy, to decarbonize the economy and rebuild the manufacturing base of the country. That it will likely be funded by the implementation of modern monetary theory.

    Also, it will be interesting how the Greens elected to succeed Di Natale as leader, if somebody who advocates policies along the lines of Bernie Sanders in America is elected to the Greens leadership, this is going to force Labor even more towards adopting such policies.

  28. Rakali

    I agree about VicForests, but that particular act of vandalism was on private land, a private contractor with no conscience, I think.

  30. @guytaur

    Perhaps, although I was thinking more as a result of a severe recession (with unemployment reaching to maybe as high as 20%) occurring in Australia. Because if the current government sits on their hands (at least initially) along with doing nothing, that will be exactly the result in my opinion.

  32. guytaur @ #381 Monday, February 3rd, 2020 – 2:32 pm

    Tristo

    Especially if we have President Sanders having done such a policy.

    Ah, nice ring to it, President Sanders! Off topic, but if you accept Alan Derrr-shove-its slightly deranged argument that a President shall be able to do anything to secure his election/re-election if he believes it’s in the public interest for that to occur then Tricky-Dicky was more innocent than a newborn child.

  33. A question for Nath if you’d be so obliging.
    Have you ever had the opportunity to meet, work with or interact with SHY at any time?
    Thanks

  34. Tristo

    With Jim Kramer declaring fossil fuels have no future on Squawk Box and today’s commodities price crash I think you can bank on a recession. That’s not factoring in ongoing bushfire and virus impacts.

  36. Chris Bowen
    @Bowenchris
    ·
    51m
    We don’t always agree, but @RichardDiNatale has been an honourable and decent parliamentary colleague and leader of his party. I particularly pay tribute to his leadership on matters of public health, prevention and primary care. Wishing him the best

  41. I am predicting Labor could go to the 2022 election advocating a ‘Green New Deal’ style policy, to decarbonize the economy and rebuild the manufacturing base of the country. That it will likely be funded by the implementation of modern monetary theory.

    Well, that would be a something.

    Despite all that has happened this summer, any climate policy the ALP put up in 2022 will still be subject to immense criticism for going too far, damaging our economy when other countries arent pulling their weight and our percentage of emissions is insignificant…. yadda yadda. Whatever the ALP do, they will need to counter these arguments as they will come thick and fast and furious from all the usual suspects.

    Ideally, they would have a base level policy of the here and now along with an high level aspirational one (with the means to get there) contingent on broad international agreement. So, something meaningful that can immediately address the years of federal government neglect in the energy and transport and land clearing/land use sectors and get us back on track for emissions reductions. Something that can be easily ramped up. And with additional things that can implemented if really significant (and necessary) global action takes on.

    My feel from how Albanese is behaving is the ALP have policies in 2022 for the first thing but keep their powder dry on the second.

  49. @Vic_Rollison
    ·
    46m
    94% of infrastructure grants went to Coalition seats in lead up to election

    #SportsRorts is only scratching the surface!

    Australians living in Labor seats – you are being screwed by this corrupt government!

  50. lizzie @ #395 Monday, February 3rd, 2020 – 2:52 pm

    I’ve been wondering what Albanese thinks about the “old policies” and wants to completely rewrite them.

    He needs to get a bloody shift along. You won’t win by trying to push radically new policies down the throat of the electorate at the last minute.

    Surely they learned that last time? Surely?

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