Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor

Labor slightly widens the lead it opened in the previous Newspoll, and Anthony Albanese maintains his ascendancy as preferred prime minister despite a slight fall in his personal ratings.

The Australian reports the latest Newspoll has Labor’s two-party lead widening from 51-49 to 52-48 since the previous poll three weeks ago. Both major parties are down on the primary vote, the Coalition by two to 38% and Labor by one to 35%, while the Greens are up one to 13% (equalling their best result since 2011) and One Nation is steady at 4%. Scott Morrison’s personal ratings are unchanged after the hit he suffered in the previous poll, at 37% approval and 59% disapproval, while a spike in Anthony Albanese’s ratings last time has failed to completely stick, with his approval down three to 43% and disapproval up three to 40% (compared with 40% and 41% in the poll before). However, Albanese maintains the lead on preferred prime minister he opened up in the last poll, which is out slightly from 43-39 to 43-38. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1510.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

831 comments on “Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor”

  1. Who can explain it, who can tell it why? Time for an election????
    Thanks Confessions (from previous thread). Midnight flit from Shangers – 2.3o am – actually, and thence 18 hours on the road as it were. Never more happy to see sleepy, sunny Perth than today!

  2. Just looks like normal mid-term unpopularity that many Governments experience. Nothing that they can’t pull back from with the help of a biased media, lies, disinformation and targeted cash splashes come election time.

    But seriously, with the pathetic responses to multiple emergencies, multiple scandals and an economy about to go down the toilet, Labor should be leading 55-45.

  3. Both major parties are down on the primary vote, the Coalition by two to 38% and Labor by one to 35%, while the Greens are up one to 13%

    Now, I wonder why that should be?

    Anyone? … Anyone? … Bueller?

  4. Steve
    Yep with bushfires, sportsrorts and coronavirus this should have been worse for the Libs. Just how much worse do they have to get?

  5. rhwombat:

    There are few triumphs in medicine – progress is measured in slight and temporary declines in loss.

    Same as in most things:
    – in business the average time for “an overnight success” (triumph) is about ten to twenty years
    – in hard science a triumph is typically “in the air ” for an extended period, and these days almost always independently developed by multiple teams (likely false if not)
    – and so on
    However I would still use the term triumph, as if you recall the origin of the term, it took a long period too.

  6. Steve777
    The problem for the government is it is now an aging government so it becomes harder to recover from the midterm slumps and it isn’t helped by a PM lacking any policy substance.

    Player One
    13% for the Greens seems to be the high point of their polling range. The Greens have actually done well this summer to avoid the mistake they usually make of overreacting.

  7. In the head-to-head contest, Mr Albanese has consolidated his lead as the preferred prime minster, remaining at 43 per cent compared with Mr Morrison who dropped a point to 38 per cent.

    At the end of last year, and ­before the uproar over his overseas holiday, Mr Morrison enjoyed a healthy lead over his rival: 48 to 34 per cent.

    Support for Pauline Hanson’s One Nation remained unchanged at 4 per cent, which is still marginally higher than the election result of 3.1 per cent.

    However, there was a significant shift in support for other minor parties, which climbed two points to 10 per cent. This is still down on the 11.8 per cent recorded at the election, which was elevated due to the ­re-emergence of Queensland mining mogul Clive Palmer as a political force.

  8. Mexicanbeemer @ #13 Sunday, February 2nd, 2020 – 10:20 pm

    Player One
    13% for the Greens seems to be the high point of their polling range. The Greens have actually done well this summer to avoid the mistake they usually make of overreacting.

    I don’t think this is due to the Greens performing well. I think it is due to Labor performing particularly badly 🙁

  9. Player One @ #16 Sunday, February 2nd, 2020 – 10:23 pm

    Mexicanbeemer @ #13 Sunday, February 2nd, 2020 – 10:20 pm

    Player One
    13% for the Greens seems to be the high point of their polling range. The Greens have actually done well this summer to avoid the mistake they usually make of overreacting.

    I don’t think this is due to the Greens performing well. I think it is due to Labor performing particularly badly 🙁

    No one thinks your thinks don’t stink!

  10. The Greens have actually done well this summer to avoid the mistake they usually make of overreacting.

    There have been some terrible overreactions and absolute clangers from the Greens. Lucky for them though, they haven’t been noticed much.

  11. Steve777 @ #5 Sunday, February 2nd, 2020 – 9:05 pm

    But seriously, with the pathetic responses to multiple emergencies, multiple scandals and an economy about to go down the toilet, Labor should be leading 55-45.

    Scandals and economic ruin only translate into a polling advantage for parties willing to capitalize on those things. Labor hasn’t been, yet.

    Diogenes @ #8 Sunday, February 2nd, 2020 – 9:10 pm

    Yep with bushfires, sportsrorts and coronavirus this should have been worse for the Libs. Just how much worse do they have to get?

    It’s not the Libs. Albanese’s been quiet as a mouse, and really chose the worst possible time to trial his whole be nice/don’t call them liars strategy. Will there be any scandals left to capitalize on by the time he finally walks that one back?

  12. PvO is not letting go of the McKenzie issue just yet.

    The hope from within the PM’s brains trust is that this quite separate issue to that of who knew what and when with respect to the substance of the sports rorts saga means that the political wound has been cauterised. There is nowhere else for this scandal to go, so the theory goes. The fall guy (or woman in this case) has been identified and dealt with. Case closed. Wrong.

    The role of the PM’s senior adviser for infrastructure and sport requires further answers. The role of a second PMO staffer, whose primary purpose at the time was as a campaign strategist — liaising with the Liberal Party’s federal secretariat — needs further answers. Just as the electoral entitlements scandal early in the life of the Howard government had tentacles which stretched all the way into John Howard’s office — eventually claiming his then chief of staff — this sports rorts scandal has links deep inside Morrison’s office.

    And we know we can’t trust their claims no links exist.

    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/scott-morrisons-loyalty-to-bridget-mckenzie-ends-in-bid-to-cauterise-scandal/news-story/8d03212818e877445641fe5712000536

  13. Albo hasn’t been that quiet if a few politically disengaged people noticed him buying lunch for the firies. Albo is letting the government dig itself a hole.

  14. Sounds like PvO has been the subject of complaints by the govt against him. Who’d have thunk it?

    Challenge the PM and journalists can find themselves put under enormous pressure, accused of partisan bias and with complaints to their superiors (a long way up the food chain I should add) to follow.

    That’s been my experience and readers absolutely deserve to know about it. Such conduct is an important part of the story of this administration — academically and practically. Too often as journalists we don’t out such complaints deliberately designed to intimidate.

  15. Diogenes @ 10:10 pm

    “… Yep with bushfires, sportsrorts and coronavirus this should have been worse for the Libs. Just how much worse do they have to get?”

    Bear in mind that voters, like the rest of us, tend to lean towards confirmation bias. When people voted for a party less than 9 months ago, it takes a fair bit to make them admit to themselves that they got it wrong. Seen in that light, I’d have thought the ALP should be pretty well satisfied with these polls. In particular, Mr Morrison has taken a tremendous hit in his personal ratings, and I don’t think he will win those people back any time soon, simply because the hit was so thoroughly well earned.

  16. Alpha Zero @ 10.51

    That’s one reason why it would be no bad thing if the Commonwealth’s power to make such grants were challenged in the High Court on the grounds mentioned by Professor Twomey. If a sporting club can’t be found to mount such a challenge, perhaps the Attorney-General from an ALP-governed state could give it a run.

  17. On sports rorts….just stepping back from it , what the hell is our FEDERAL Govt doing paying for girls (or any) toilets, solar panels or function rooms at any particular sports club?
    We have local and state government for this. It is an absurdity.
    The PM of Australia says he can’t intervene in a national emergency, but he can be present to give a cheque to a bowls club?

  18. Torchbearer
    The federal government has been sneaking onto state government turf for years and it is now at the point where it can be difficult to tell which level is suppose to be responsible.

  19. I’m fond of noting that individual polls don’t really mean much, but the trend can tell you something, and this poll strongly suggests that the hit to Morrison’s standing apparent in the last NewsPoll has been confirmed. It’s common wisdom now that SM has handled himself badly over the summer’s ongoing bushfire crisis, and these polls suggest that the punters have noticed. It’s probably not too long a bow to suggest that he has been irredeemably damaged by this – this was most people first real opportunity to see how he’d go in a crisis, and he flunked the test.

    Of course, it doesn’t necessarily follow from that that he’s a goner – it’s two years or so before the next election, and as we know, polling on voting intention this far away from election day needs to be taken with a grain of salt. However, these figures do make it more likely that he might meet the same fate as his immediate predecessors, and get knifed by his own party before facing the voters.

  20. “Yep with bushfires, sports rorts and coronavirus this should have been worse for the Libs. Just how much worse do they have to get?”

    The real question is, “How much better does labor need to get?”. Morrison is looking cooked (and Josh F and Dutton’s backers will start the white-anting to finish him – and Hunt, with no backers, will just white-ant in the hope of doing a bradbury), but Albo is just not cutting through. He is Morrison and the LNP’s greatest asset at present – he comes across as fake, waffly, weak, and always sounds as though he’s had one too many drinks – not saying he has, but his voice just sounds a tad pissed). He makes shorten look more prime ministerial by the day. I despair at the though of another coalition victory, and hope albo and labor can lift their game.

  21. Koala update.
    No plantation or logging company involvement. Block was handed back to the landholder in Nov complete with the required number of habitat trees remaining.

  22. [‘When push comes to shove, Mavis can always be relied upon to side with the trolls, Lars-thing and Nath-thing.’]

    Please stop it, dear – you’re an almost a replicate dear of GG. Lars, nath, and others offer a sensible counter-argument but you’re too thuck (sic) to accept same.

  23. As much as people complain about the media, it’s been journalists and ANAO who have led the charge. There is such a thing as political momentum and Labor aren’t doing much to get it.

  24. Betting in the Super Bowl dead even. SF 49ers vs Kansas City Chiefs.
    That’s Blue state vs Red state.
    Go blue state !! (except when it’s New England)

  25. I don’t think Albo sounds drunk. To me, he sounds like he’s speaking while simultaneously chewing meat.

    But, how a politician sounds is irrelevant, really; as long as they are coherent and not speaking a load of BS.

    I found the way Malcolm Turnbull pronouncd his ‘sh’ sounds irritating. SmoKo’s non-verbal expressions, quick-to-anger tone, and motormouth manner of speaking are the most-annoying things about his communication. Tony Abbott sounded punch-drunk and he interjected with ‘ah’ between every clause. Kevin Rudd sounded like he was reading from a script. Julia Gillard sounded ‘wooden’ and the faux-bogan accent was not convincing. John Howard’s ‘s’ sounds were muffled and distorted (though he had a hearing impairment). Bob Hawke’s manner of speaking was easy to ridicule.

    We haven’t exactly had a long line of great orators as PM.

  26. sprocket_ @ #1955 Sunday, February 2nd, 2020 – 2:43 pm

    So what happens next?

    The National Party room has to meet, first thing tomorrow I’d speculate – although they may hold off till the scheduled Tuesday morning meeting. This would give candidates a chance to test the waters.

    Candidates would be Matt Canavan, David LittleProud, Darren Chester, and yes, the BeetRooter.

    And it may not just be the vacant Deputy job up for grabs. Here is the perfect opportunity for MickMack to ‘stand aside for the good of the party’.

    Renée from MurdochLand summed up Rupert’s feeling on Insiders this morning, saying that the Deputy PM did not rise to the occasion when ‘Scott’ was caught short in Hawaii.

    Poor MickMack, being slammed for giving us prelude to what Morrison’s return would be like.

  27. All the effort to spin the blame for the fires to the Greens has back-fired.

    Such a relief that such nonsense didn’t really shift voters

    Those gullible enough to believe it weren’t going to vote Green.

  28. All this sh!t and the Libs still get 48?

    As I said, Aussie voters are in some kind of curse of stupidity.

    Labor has buckleys at the next election. I am calling it now a 5 seat majority to the Coalition.

    And all those who were burnt out of their homes or with businesses impacted or jobs affected, you watch them vote Liberal or National like they always have.

    Call me cynical, but anyone dumb enough to vote Coalition last time does not have enough brainpower to pull themdelves out of the mire of ignorance into which they have sunk.

    This nation is f#cked.

  29. Puffytmd
    I don’t get why people don’t understand how the TPP works. Surely people are not forgetting that two thirds of voters are rusted on and many ALP seats don’t have much room to swing.

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