The Australian reports the latest Newspoll has Labor’s two-party lead widening from 51-49 to 52-48 since the previous poll three weeks ago. Both major parties are down on the primary vote, the Coalition by two to 38% and Labor by one to 35%, while the Greens are up one to 13% (equalling their best result since 2011) and One Nation is steady at 4%. Scott Morrison’s personal ratings are unchanged after the hit he suffered in the previous poll, at 37% approval and 59% disapproval, while a spike in Anthony Albanese’s ratings last time has failed to completely stick, with his approval down three to 43% and disapproval up three to 40% (compared with 40% and 41% in the poll before). However, Albanese maintains the lead on preferred prime minister he opened up in the last poll, which is out slightly from 43-39 to 43-38. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1510.
guytaur
“Especially if we have President Sanders having done such a policy.”
President Sanders is about as likely as Prime Minister Bandt.
(In other words… not going to happen. I have to spell that out, in case there are some lunatics who seriously think that Bandt will one day be PM.)
The Centrist Democrats really are panicking.
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-election/john-kerry-overheard-discussing-possible-2020-bid-amid-concern-sanders-n1128476
Lizzie,
You obviously didn’t watch the performance of the Fremantle Football Club under Mr Drum…
gutaur:
[‘As I told the reporter, I am absolutely not running for President. Any report otherwise is categorically false. I’ve been proud to campaign with my good friend Joe Biden, who is going to win the nomination, beat Trump, and make an outstanding president.’]
I think Kerry’s on the money here.
MOE is generally doing well in this Newspoll.
Simon..
Precisely. The problem is the basic idea and belief that action means taking a hit to your living standard.
The opposite is true. Taking action means more investment, more jobs, new industry.
Labor ougjt to be able to sell that. But to do so, Labor needs to be far more professional. It needs to reach out to experts. It needs to do a lot of hard, detailed work. It needs to reach out and persuade, educate, disabuse on the street level.
And all of this needs to start now. Not in an election campaign.
Goll
says:
Monday, February 3, 2020 at 2:39 pm
A question for Nath if you’d be so obliging.
Have you ever had the opportunity to meet, work with or interact with SHY at any time?
Thanks
__________________
maybe
Player Onesays:
Monday, February 3, 2020 at 1:39 pm
Windhover @ #341 Monday, February 3rd, 2020 – 1:13 pm
So, no, if I were being honest I should have said no (and no).
…………………………………………………………….
Ummm. Let me quote what you actually said, since you seem to have forgotten already:
P1, for reasons unknown, endlessly bores PB with complaints that the ALP has no policies, and specifically no carbon emission policies.
So, that would be a “yes” to the castigating bit.
…………………………………………………………..
Ummmm, no. The “castigating bit” you alleged was contained in your post at 11.23 as follows:
Player Onesays:
Monday, February 3, 2020 at 11:23 am
Windhover @ #172 Monday, February 3rd, 2020 – 11:08 am
Player Onesays:
Monday, February 3, 2020 at 10:54 am
Windhover @ #155 Monday, February 3rd, 2020 – 10:38 am
P1, for reasons unknown, endlessly bores PB with complaints that the ALP has no policies, and specifically no carbon emission policies.
…………………………………………………………….
Happy for you to point me to Labor’s current policy.
……………………………………………………………..
You will be happy then P1. As I predicted in my previous post:
“when policies are announced P1 will revert to posting of the dire consequences that will arise from those policies (never mind LNP), oh, and Adani is somehow Labor’s fault of course.”
So, you castigate me for the sin of pointing out that Labor has no policies.
…………………………………………………………………………………..
…………………………………………………………………………………….
My first “no” was in response to the suggestion that I “castigated [you] for the sin of pointing out that Labor has no policies”.
I castigated you for being a bore. Obviously with little effect. The first point of my original post (I am sure not lost on you, you love playing games) was that there were steady reasons for Labor not having a climate policy (so pointing out Labor has no (climate) policy is no concern of mine (as long as it is not done repetitively and for no purpose). Reasons you choose not to discuss, you dissembler you.
We all know when Labor has a climate policy you will revert to attacking the policy. As I stated earlier (quoted above) this will make you happy (presumably) because (to you) it is worth endlessly attacking the progressive side of the debate on climate change you purport to support rather than actually see anything done at all (apparently).
……………………………………………………………………………………………
You go on:
As to the part about Labor having no policies …
No doubt when policies are announced …
So, again, that would be a “yes” to admitting Labor currently has no policies on climate change, wouldn’t it?
So, all up “yes and yes” would have been a more honest response than “no and no”, wouldn’t it?
But by all means, keep dissembling!
………………………………………………………………………
The second “no” is a response to your statement “Then you admit Labor (currently) has no (climate change) policies.”
Your use of the word “then” necessarily imports the antecedent phrase alleging I castigated you for anything other than being a bore. As I only castigated you for being a bore it follows the pre-condition to my “admission” that Labor has no climate change policy did not exist. And your use of the word “admission” is inapt when the entirety of that part of my post was to explain why IMO Labor was well off not to have a climate policy as yet. It was more a premise than an admission.
Is that a sufficient disassembly for you of your dissembling or would you like to continue dissembling (asked rhetorically)?
Cud Chewer @ #407 Monday, February 3rd, 2020 – 3:03 pm
I don’t often agree with you, but in this you are correct. Labor needs to learn to lie with a straight face, just like the Liberals do. I actually said this straight after the election.
Ummm….
Mavis
I agree. The polling is clear Sanders leading in Iowa and New Hampshire.
Doing well in Nevada too.
That’s better than Obama did.
To quote the Obama Brothers from Pod Save America. Polls don’t care about your feelings.
And predictably the memes have already started!
Alpha Zero
No, you’re right. But it was as a footballer that I had heard of him, not as a political strategist. 🙂
You’re clearly not a Dockers fan then Lizzie!
Windhover @ #409 Monday, February 3rd, 2020 – 3:06 pm
No. By all means keep digging. It’s kind of sad … but also kind of amusing.
Does that make me a bad person?
Kakuru @ #403 Monday, February 3rd, 2020 – 2:56 pm
Nine months out from 2016 no-one seriously believed we would see a President Trump. In the time it takes to gestate a child that all turned around. President Sanders looks a greater possibility in February 2020 than President Trump did in February 2016. Seriously, it’s time to either get up to speed or not post inane comments!
If they get a real new leader maybe the Greens will shed the mass of policies that are based on not much more than antipathy to rural and regional Australians.
Yep. Look at Tesla. Building cars in the U.S., where the domestic auto industry would have collapsed had the government not bailed it out. Without the help of any taxpayer bailout and an administration that’s (at best) apathetic towards EV’s, too.
And their vehicles will outperform any ICE vehicle that doesn’t cost more than twice as much.
Jobs, industry, and a better standard for their consumers. You can do sustainable without going back to the 1800’s. It’s the entire basis of Tesla’s success.
Looking at those commodity prices, an itty bitty coronavirus is more effective in reducing coal consumption than 30 years of Greens posturing.
I do wonder what it is that they admire about him. Perhaps that he isn’t Barnaby???
The reason Sanders will struggle to get the nomination is due to the way the delegates are allocated. He might win a plurality of the vote but in order to majority of the delegates he will need to get near to a majority in a majority of states. Even if the rest is scattering among three or four others, he won’t win a majority on the first vote on the floor of the convention and then ergo No Bernie. (Plus because after the first vote super delegates get to vote).
That is why if it is the case that a mainstream candidate is say only on 40% of the delegates by the convention, they would win on a the 2nd ballot.
I see Trump has amended his tweet to read Missouri when it originally was Kansas.
Boerwar @ #420 Monday, February 3rd, 2020 – 3:13 pm
Yeah! Let’s hope some more people actually die. That will teach those bloody coal huggers! 🙁
Boerwar @ #422 Monday, February 3rd, 2020 – 2:13 pm
Ah, if only the Greens killed 2% of the people they shook hands with, right? 🙂
lizzie @ #421 Monday, February 3rd, 2020 – 3:13 pm
A lot to be said in favour of that!
guytaur:
[…’The polling is clear Sanders leading in Iowa and New Hampshire.
Doing well in Nevada too.
That’s better than Obama did.’]
I’ll take your word on the polling, but I still don’t think Sanders will get the nomination.
BSF
Look at the polls. Sanders is doing well in California and Texas.
A reminder. Those polls don’t measure new voters. Only registered voters. Sanders is likely to surprise on the up side of margin of error.
As I said yesterday, I personally think that the bulk of Americans have had their experiment with a disruptor (Trump) and will have no appetite to get another one from the perceived opposite end of he political spectrum (Sanders)
Logically, they want someone safe.
As there will not be someone like that in the republican party (Trump will stay) there will be a movement toward a safe, sensible candidate (probably Biden or perhaps Buttigieg at a stretch).
Warren and Sanders appear too left wing, Klobuchar is nice and would make a good VP.
I wish Adam Schiff was running though!
I imagine Bandt will get the gig with Waters as the deputy.
I find Bandt somewhat gormless with an appeal limited to inner city cardigan wearing folkies, so I can’t imagine him expanding the greens base at all.
‘Player One says:
Monday, February 3, 2020 at 3:15 pm
Boerwar @ #420 Monday, February 3rd, 2020 – 3:13 pm
Looking at those commodity prices, an itty bitty coronavirus is more effective in reducing coal consumption than 30 years of Greens posturing.
Yeah! Let’s hope some more people actually die. That will teach those bloody coal huggers! ‘
Goodness gracious me, P1, you do carry on like a pork chop.
Given the number of people coal kills every year, nCoV19 is almost certainly going to kill far fewer people than coal will this year.
My point was not the relative mortality rates of coal v nCoV19. The point was the effectiveness of the Greens in getting anything at all done about either.
https://www.houstonchronicle.com/news/politics/texas/article/Bernie-Sanders-surging-in-Texas-three-weeks-15013485.php
Waters has the sort of smarmy self-satisfied condescension that pisses of all but the most rusted on Inner Urbs hipsters.
But still, if she is the best of the Greens wymyn, so be it.
Bandt could get a day job as a cathedral usher.
guytaur
” Sanders is likely to surprise on the up side of margin of error.”
Yep indeed, just like Corbyn! He’s gonna kick Boris’ arse!
So does SHY!
Kakaru
You obviously cannot read polls.
Boerwar @ #431 Monday, February 3rd, 2020 – 3:19 pm
Honestly, Boerwar. Coming from one of the most tedious and tendentious posters on PB, that’s a bit rich!
Without wanting to re-open the old can of worms, the Greens have a fair claim to as much credit as Labor on that one.
Sanders is no Corbyn, IMO.
Everyone knows what Sanders stands for.
I doubt even Corbyn knew what Corbyn stood for, in relation to Brexit.
P1
You never passed a can without wanting to fill it with worms.
Not sure you can blame Trump for thinking Kansas City would be in Kansas. There is some bizarre historical reason there are two Kansas Cities, one in Missouri (the main one) and one close by in Kansas.
The confirmation bias levelled against Bernie Sanders on this forum is absurd. Do you not realise he’s considered in the US to be the champion of the people, in much the same way Trump was (mistakenly) considered to fulfill that role in 2016. Why would you dismiss him out-of-hand unless you don’t like the concept of ‘the people’? Anyway, he’s performing very strongly in the polling and pundits who have far greater knowledge on this issue than a group of sad keyboard warriors on the other side of the world have not written him off.
Some read them. Others dance on them.
Boerwar @ #439 Monday, February 3rd, 2020 – 3:27 pm
🙂
This is why he is mocked.
Bernie is the new People’s poet
Simon Katich says: Monday, February 3, 2020 at 3:27 pm
You obviously cannot read polls.
Some read them. Others dance on them.
****************************************************************
Reminder: Polls are only a snapshot of the moment
I recommend the same for paying attention to polls. They change. They are a snapshot of a moment, not a prediction, although most of us who consume poll results treat them as predictions. Even if you believe in them, if you also take the margin of error seriously, they mostly show elections that could go either way.
And by the time the latest poll numbers reach you, they are out of date.
https://www.minnpost.com/eric-black-ink/2018/11/reminder-polls-are-only-a-snapshot-of-the-moment/
IMHO, Morrison and Dutton missed a golden opportunity here.
They should have strung some wires together, electrified them and then concentrated any angry Chinese-Australians inside the fences.
The better location is not CI but Lambing Flat. It’s a traditional Aussie site for sorting these things out for the better.
I was nattering with OH about an extended family brekkie we had over the weekend in an open air part of a cafe, when it occurred to me that bussing the Chinese family members on the cheek was a political act.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02-03/coronavirus-has-stranded-chinese-international-students/11923364
Kakuru @ #435 Monday, February 3rd, 2020 – 3:22 pm
Sanders is not, repeat not, Corbyn. You need to get that spurious comparison out of your brain.
Sanders is officially an independent …
Nath
I thought as much.
You were just blowing wind in our pipes to get a reaction.