Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor

Labor slightly widens the lead it opened in the previous Newspoll, and Anthony Albanese maintains his ascendancy as preferred prime minister despite a slight fall in his personal ratings.

The Australian reports the latest Newspoll has Labor’s two-party lead widening from 51-49 to 52-48 since the previous poll three weeks ago. Both major parties are down on the primary vote, the Coalition by two to 38% and Labor by one to 35%, while the Greens are up one to 13% (equalling their best result since 2011) and One Nation is steady at 4%. Scott Morrison’s personal ratings are unchanged after the hit he suffered in the previous poll, at 37% approval and 59% disapproval, while a spike in Anthony Albanese’s ratings last time has failed to completely stick, with his approval down three to 43% and disapproval up three to 40% (compared with 40% and 41% in the poll before). However, Albanese maintains the lead on preferred prime minister he opened up in the last poll, which is out slightly from 43-39 to 43-38. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1510.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

831 comments on “Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor”

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  1. Boerwar

    I doubt even Corbyn knew what Corbyn stood for, in relation to Brexit.

    He was probably personally for Brexit but also was for it because that was what was voted for. Unfortunately the ‘Remoaners’ forced a fudge . For that, well done the ‘Blairites” .

  3. Gee that Michael Moore is such an impartial observer:

    In Cedar Rapids on Saturday night, liberal filmmaker Michael Moore, who introduced Sanders at events across Iowa in recent days, took sharp aim at the Democratic National Committee, accusing its leaders of conspiring against Sanders and trying to boost former New York mayor Mike Bloomberg by changing qualifications for future debates.

    “They did this because they are so nervous and worried about Bernie,” Moore alleged. A Sanders campaign spokesman did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

    DNC spokeswoman Xochitl Hinojosa said Moore’s assertion was “totally false.” She added, “This is a conspiracy theory.”

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/candidates-power-to-end-of-iowa-campaign-with-competing-visions-of-unity-and-electability/2020/02/02/a92047b6-45de-11ea-8124-0ca81effcdfb_story.html

  5. jenauthor @ #449 Monday, February 3rd, 2020 – 3:37 pm

    Sanders is officially an independent …

    Furthermore, Sanders has nominated to run for the Senate again should he not be chosen as the candidate for POTUS for the Democrats…as an Independent.

    And for people who say you have to be Independent to be a Vermont Senator you only have to look no further than Patrick Leahy, the other Senator for Vermont, who is proudly Democrat.

  7. poroti says: Monday, February 3, 2020 at 3:43 pm

    Bellwether

    How about “like Shorten was going to kick Morrison ‘s arse” then ?

    *******************************************

    Having the vapours on polls on 2nd of February – the US election is 2nd of November – a LONG way still to go

  8. ‘You obviously cannot read polls.”

    I can read polls just fine, guytaur. I prefer to pay attention to all the polls, not just cherry-pick the polls that happen to suit my argument.

  9. Bellwether @ #441 Monday, February 3rd, 2020 – 3:27 pm

    The confirmation bias levelled against Bernie Sanders on this forum is absurd. Do you not realise he’s considered in the US to be the champion of the people, in much the same way Trump was (mistakenly) considered to fulfill that role in 2016. Why would you dismiss him out-of-hand unless you don’t like the concept of ‘the people’? Anyway, he’s performing very strongly in the polling and pundits who have far greater knowledge on this issue than a group of sad keyboard warriors on the other side of the world have not written him off.

    You know what’s even sadder? A sad keyboard warrior for Sanders in Australia who thinks they know who ‘the people’ of America are.

  10. Goll
    says:
    Monday, February 3, 2020 at 3:37 pm
    Nath
    I thought as much.
    You were just blowing wind in our pipes to get a reaction.
    ___________________________
    I have no idea what you are going on about. Clearly this is some kind of Gollism and therefore incomprehensible and just stupid.

  11. Kakaru

    Yeah yeah.

    Another reminder for you. No candidate has lost the nomination who won both Iowa and New Hampshire.

    Anyone saying there can not be a President Sanders needs a reality check.

    Edit: Also it’s not my name in the Houston Chronicle byline.

  12. As I said Bernie doesn’t just need to win, he needs to win big and no matter which poll you point to he is not going to get 40% of the vote and therefore he is not going to get close enough to win the nomination.

    And if he was to win it, say hello to another 4 years of Trump.

  13. C@tmomma @ #457 Monday, February 3rd, 2020 – 2:46 pm

    Furthermore, Sanders has nominated to run for the Senate again should he not be chosen as the candidate for POTUS for the Democrats…as an Independent.

    Which is vastly preferable to, say, running an independent presidential campaign if he’s not nominated.

    Though speaking of independent campaigns, surely there’s some cashed-up RWNJ somewhere who can be persuaded to run as an independent far-right candidate against Trump?

  14. Michael Moore isn’t, and doesn’t claim to be, an impartial observer. In fact he’s endorsed Sanders because he is fairly on the side of the people and against the machinations of the DNC who will do anything within their power to secure the nomination for one of their compliant elites. If Sanders can beat his way through all the hurdles the DNC are about to place in front of him he will be battle-hardened and ready to take on the Mango Mussolini.

  16. guytaur @ #461 Monday, February 3rd, 2020 – 3:51 pm

    Kakaru

    Yeah yeah.

    Another reminder for you. No candidate has lost the nomination who won both Iowa and New Hampshire.

    Anyone saying there can not be a President Sanders needs a reality check.

    There are a few here that live in some kind of parallel universe where reality counts for nothing.

  17. Barnyard has his vision thing…

    “Mr Joyce said he’d be happy to take on the agriculture portfolio, given he held it previously in the Abbott and Turnbull governments from 2013 to 2017.

    The move has strained his relationship with Nationals leader Michael McCormack, but Mr Joyce argued “everybody understands the system and how it works”.

    “I suppose at the start of the year before [politicians] go to work, and two years out from an election, if there’s an issue that needs to be dealt with, now is the time to deal with it,” he said.

    “Maybe my flaw is that if you’re asked a straight question and you give a straight answer, it gets you into trouble.”

    The top priority for Mr Joyce, if he made it back onto the frontbench, would be to deliver the highly controversial Bradfield Scheme.

    The idea is to take excess floodwater from north Queensland and use it to combat drought in southern parts of the state.

    The 1930s concept has been rubbished by governments over the years, who reject its economic, scientific and engineering viability.

    The concept has been rebranded by the Liberal National Party, creatively named the New Bradfield Scheme, and it’s hoped to win votes in the next state election.”

    https://www.northerndailyleader.com.au/story/6610368/everyone-deserves-forgiveness-joyce-guns-for-nationals-leadership/

  19. poroti
    ” For that, well done the ‘Blairites” .”

    Yeah, stupid Blairites – I blame them for Corbyn losing. Please don’t ask me how. It’s complicated, but rest assured that Blair and the Blairites are to blame for everything that is wrong with UK Labor. One of Corbyn’s greatest achievements is to ensure that there are far fewer Blairites in the House of Commons, after the 2019 election.

    Tony Blair won 3 elections (including 2 landslides), and Corbyn has won zero elections (including one landslide… for the other side). But Corbyn is still a great leader.

  20. Here’s someone who understands real reality, not the fake reality that Bernie Sanders is retailing:

    Buttigieg began the day on a stage where he was introduced by Iowa City Mayor Bruce Teague, who had previously backed Sen. Cory Booker before the New Jersey Democrat dropped out of the race. He made a pointed reference to criticisms of Buttigieg’s difficulty attracting nonwhite voters.

    “I don’t know if you’ve noticed,” Teague said. “But I’m black.”

    Buttigieg has grown more animated and more emotive of late and his crowds, generally politely supportive, have become more raucous.

    His campaign touted the 27 counties that voted for Barack Obama and Trump as evidence of his effort to reach more than just true-blue Democrats. He suggested that “a massive American majority” agrees on things like gun background checks or dealing with climate change, and suggested he is the candidate best equipped to activate it.

    Two voters at the Coralville event told him they are Republicans voting for a Democrat for the first time.

    “I’m not trying to trick anybody into thinking I’m more conservative than I am,” Buttigieg said Sunday, in a response to a different voter who asked how he plans to persuade Republicans. “I can’t say that we will agree 100 percent of the time, but I promise we will navigate those differences with respect and that everyone will be heard.”

    When a voter told Buttigieg she was planning to vote for a Democrat for the first time and wondered why she should vote for him over Biden, Buttigieg said he was offering “just a different approach.”

    “Every single time my party has won the White House in the last 50 years, we have done it with a candidate who is new in national politics, who is opening a door to a new generation of leadership, and who either doesn’t work in Washington or hasn’t been there very long,” he said. “That is how we win.”

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/candidates-power-to-end-of-iowa-campaign-with-competing-visions-of-unity-and-electability/2020/02/02/a92047b6-45de-11ea-8124-0ca81effcdfb_story.html

  22. C@tmomma

    “You know what’s even sadder? A sad keyboard warrior for Sanders in Australia who thinks they know who ‘the people’ of America are.”

    F*ck yeah!

  23. B.S. Fairman @ #462 Monday, February 3rd, 2020 – 3:51 pm

    As I said Bernie doesn’t just need to win, he needs to win big and no matter which poll you point to he is not going to get 40% of the vote and therefore he is not going to get close enough to win the nomination.

    And if he was to win it, say hello to another 4 years of Trump.

    So who’s your pick then? Please god not Biden.

  24. Cat

    Sanders is the front runner. On an Obama momentum path to winning the election if the polls hold true.

    Buttigieg is still polling 0% with black voters.

  25. sprocket_ says: Monday, February 3, 2020 at 3:56 pm

    Barnyard has his vision thing…

    ************************************************

    I would not be surprised in the slightest if Barnaby does become Nat Leader again – after all is one of THEM

    There is Michael McCormack on TV in a suit and a tie – Barnaby turns up in moleskins , a hat, a pair of Williams boots still smelling of cowshit and a hayseed hanging out of his mouth …… the rubes can’t get enough of the Beetrooter …….

  27. DP
    “Which, to voters who are completely disillusioned by the two party system, is a plus.”

    Sanders being an “Independent” is totally irrelevant to voters. He’s running in the DEMOCRATIC primary. In the Senate, Sanders caucuses with the Democratic Party, just like Angus King from Maine.

  28. Some people think EVERYONE here, or in the US, gives a fuck.

    Most don’t. Most want their world to carry on as normal with few disruptions.

    The ideal of Sanders winning the nom might, to some, be a victory. But it would doom the Dems to another loss.

    An example might be: Joyce switching to the Liberal Party in the hope of becoming PM.

    He’d have his cheer-leaders, but most people would be aghast. And he would certainly doom the Libs.

    We do not have a president, which I am grateful for, but while the US system allows outliers as president they are the exception, not the rule.

  31. jenauthor @ #478 Monday, February 3rd, 2020 – 4:05 pm

    Some people think EVERYONE here, or in the US, gives a fuck.

    Most don’t. Most want their world to carry on as normal with few disruptions.

    The ideal of Sanders winning the nom might, to some, be a victory. But it would doom the Dems to another loss.

    An example might be: Joyce switching to the Liberal Party in the hope of becoming PM.

    He’d have his cheer-leaders, but most people would be aghast. And he would certainly doom the Libs.

    We do not have a president, which I am grateful for, but while the US system allows outliers as president they are the exception, not the rule.

    Ok, so who would you suggest?

  32. “Bandt could get a day job as a cathedral usher.”

    Maybe so. Realistically the Greens are only targeting higher educated (mainly inner) urban voters, say 20% of the electorate (assuming 60% are capital city voters, of whom 1/3 are inner urban). So not crazy for them to pick a figure that appeals to this demographic.

    To be fair to Bandt, he is intelligent, and if you compare him to other smaller party leaders (McCormack, Katter, Hanson) he seems much better.

  33. Speaking of Katter, I only just caught up with the news that Katter is handing the leadership of his “party” to his son.
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02-03/katter-hands-kap-leadership-to-robbie-katter/11924424

    Seriously, does this still count as a political “party”? At what point does it devolve into a small rural fiefdom? Is Katter no more significant than Prince Leonard of Hutt River? Do the AEC have formal criteria for what functionally defines a political party? (Not just a headcount)

  34. jenauthor says: Monday, February 3, 2020 at 4:05 pm

    Some people think EVERYONE here, or in the US, gives a fuck.

    Most don’t. Most want their world to carry on as normal with few disruptions.

    ***************************************************************

    – it always amazes me how thousands of Americans are prepared to travel halfway across the world – to fight, die and kill for the concept of **American Democracy** being good for the world – yet can’t be bothered to get their lazy arses into gear to cross the street and cast a vote for their preferred candidate

  35. ar

    Though speaking of independent campaigns, surely there’s some cashed-up RWNJ somewhere who can be persuaded to run as an independent far-right candidate against Trump?

    With enough money, surely someone can be tempted? I think it was an open secret that Ralph Nader got some funding from covert republican sources in 2002, although it was someone called Monica Moorehead, according to Michael Moore, who caused the real trouble for Al Gore.

  36. Do the AEC have formal criteria for what functionally defines a political party? (Not just a headcount)

    The AEC has party registration, which only needs the membership requirement and the outline of a constitution. Separate from that is parliamentary party status, which gets you extra staff, allowances and salary, which Katter has never had since it requires five members.

  37. “ Ok, so who would you suggest?”

    Reflecting upon ‘The Loudest Voice” (five stars for Rusty) and the Trumpoclypse I have come to the serious conclusion that the only potential eligible candidate that could win against Trump is Oprah.

    Just like Ronnie Reagan reflected a certain image that Americans had of themselves in 1980, Trump reflects modern day America. He is them. They are him. He’s the first (reality) TV President, just like Ronnie was the first movie star President. Only Oprah can compete with that. Especially if she isn’t being ‘earnest’ and ‘serious’ (because Trump would simply take the piss if she took herself too seriously). If she entered and treated the race like show business she’d get a turnout of over 80 million. Game over.

    I reckon about 20 million of that 108 million ‘don’t give a shit’ (amd don’t vote) demographic in Phoenix’s pie chart would definitely rock up for Oprah.

  39. Andrew_Earlwood says: Monday, February 3, 2020 at 4:20 pm

    “ Ok, so who would you suggest?”

    Reflecting upon ‘The Loudest Voice” (five stars for Rusty) and the Trumpoclypse I have come to the serious conclusion that the only potential eligible candidate that could win against Trump is Oprah.

    ***************************************************

    Hi Andrew – there were many earlier predictions – that IF she stood as a presidential candidate then Michelle Obama would walk it in – sadly, she could not be so persuaded …..

  40. William
    “The AEC has party registration, which only needs the membership requirement and the outline of a constitution. Separate from that is parliamentary party status, which gets you extra staff, allowances and salary, which Katter has never had since it requires five members.”

    Thanks. No wonder so many try to rort the system. It is rortable.

  41. They’ve done it again. No shame or they’re stupid.

    Christopher Knaus
    The Coalition has gotten itself in a spot of bother recently by politicising grant schemes. So it was a bit of a surprise to see Alan Tudge, population minister, just Tweet out a promo for a multicultural grants scheme with the Liberal party’s logo plastered all over it.

    That would, of course, be a grant scheme funded by Commonwealth money, not the Liberal party’s money.

  42. phoenixRED @ #489 Monday, February 3rd, 2020 – 4:24 pm

    Andrew_Earlwood says: Monday, February 3, 2020 at 4:20 pm

    “ Ok, so who would you suggest?”

    Reflecting upon ‘The Loudest Voice” (five stars for Rusty) and the Trumpoclypse I have come to the serious conclusion that the only potential eligible candidate that could win against Trump is Oprah.

    ***************************************************

    Hi Andrew – there were many earlier predictions – that IF she stood as a presidential candidate then Michelle Obama would walk it in – sadly, she could not be so persuaded …..

    Next you people will be suggesting Kim Kardashian.

  43. “ Michelle Obama would walk it in – sadly, she could not be so persuaded ….“

    Far too polarising. Also, many will just see her as ‘Barak’s wife” – as unfair as that characterisation is. Plus, her nomination would appear to be dynastic and hence ‘establishment’.

    On the other hand, Oprah has been THE most significant cultural Icon in US TV land for decades. She is a self made superstar. Her personal endorsement of Obama probably won him the nomination in 2008. She is King Kong to Trump’s reality TV Chimpanzee.

    #draftOprah!

  45. phoenixRED

    Your Mercedes Benz pie chart is equally applicable here except that in our case the green slice represents the disengaged swinging voters who delivered us this diabolical Morrison outfit. I’m not sure which system is worse.

  46. “ Next you people will be suggesting Kim Kardashian.”

    As silly as it seems, she’d be a better choice To get out the vote than any of the democrats actually in the race. Sad, but …

  47. Confessions:

    Ummm….

    Donald J. Trump@realDonaldTrump
    ·
    40m
    Congratulations to the Kansas City Chiefs on a great game and a fantastic comeback under immense pressure. We are proud of you and the Great State of Missouri. You are true Champions!

    ………………………

    Kansas City straddles two states.

  48. Bloody Hell lizzie!

    They’ve done it again. No shame or they’re stupid.

    Christopher Knaus
    The Coalition has gotten itself in a spot of bother recently by politicising grant schemes. So it was a bit of a surprise to see Alan Tudge, population minister, just Tweet out a promo for a multicultural grants scheme with the Liberal party’s logo plastered all over it.

    That would, of course, be a grant scheme funded by Commonwealth money, not the Liberal party’s money.

    This is incredibly dishonest, and it should be illegal. Does any one know if this can be challenged legally?

    Any of the media willing to take it up?

  49. Bellwether says: Monday, February 3, 2020 at 4:28 pm

    phoenixRED @ #489 Monday, February 3rd, 2020 – 4:24 pm

    Andrew_Earlwood says: Monday, February 3, 2020 at 4:20 pm

    Hi Andrew – there were many earlier predictions – that IF she stood as a presidential candidate then Michelle Obama would walk it in – sadly, she could not be so persuaded …..

    ************************************************
    Next you people will be suggesting Kim Kardashian.

    ********************************************************

    Well for me – seeing as I suggested it – I would not put Michelle Obama ( voted as the most admired female in the world ) in the same sentence as a pretender.

    Michelle Obama is the world’s most admired woman
    https://today.yougov.com/topics/international/articles-reports/2019/07/18/2019-worlds-most-admired

    As for Kim Kardashian ……for me, thumbs down ….

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