Essential Research has not allowed the long weekend to interrupt the fortnightly schedule of its polling, which continues to be limited to attitudinal questions. Conducted last Tuesday to this Monday from a sample of 1080, the most interesting question from the latest poll relates to Bridget McKenzie, whom 51% felt should have been stood down by the Prime Minister. Only 15% felt he was right not to do so, while a further 34% said they had not been following the issue. The question included an explanation of what the issue involved, which is always best avoided, but the wording was suitably neutral (“it is claimed she allocated $100million to sporting organisations in marginal seats to favour the Coalition”).
The poll also finds overwhelming support for the establishment of a federal ICAC – or to be precise, of “an independent federal corruption body to monitor the behaviour of our politicians and public servants”. Fully 80% of respondents were in favour, including 49% strongly in favour, which is five points higher than when Angus Taylor’s troubles prompted the same question to be asked in December. Also featured are yet more findings on Australia Day, for which Essential accentuates the positive by framing the question around “a separate national day to recognise indigenous Australians”. Fifty per cent were in favour of such a thing, down two on last year, but only 18% of these believed it should be in place of, rather than supplementary to, Australia Day. Forty per cent did not support such a day at all, unchanged on last year.
Note that there are two threads below this one of hopefully ongoing interest: the latest guest post from Adrian Beaumont on Monday’s Democratic caucuses in Iowa, and other international concerns; and my review of looming elections in Queensland, where the Liberal National Party has now chosen its candidate for the looming Currumbin by-election, who has not proved to the liking of retiring member Jann Stuckey.
poroti @ #1348 Saturday, February 1st, 2020 – 7:34 pm
Sorry, but I don’t have an inbuilt Anti Hillary bias. She was certainly the superior candidate in 2016. Better than Bernie even. 🙂
C@t
Maybe broaden your media intake, how will you frame your argument if Sanders wins the nomination? Don’t be so sure how a debate with Trump might go, I’m sure he would lose a great deal of skin peddling his brand of pathetic bullshit against a nominee of true integrity and honesty.
Cud Chewer @ #1349 Saturday, February 1st, 2020 – 7:35 pm
Your dream candidate is not who Americans are looking for. Anyway, AOC is too young. 😉
C@t
If the main argument against Sanders is simply that he’s a bigger target for Republican shit being thrown, then I need more persuasion.
C@tmomma @ #1353 Saturday, February 1st, 2020 – 7:40 pm
And remember you are simply expressing an opinion that could so easily be proven quite incorrect and not some kind of divine knowledge.
Jaeger, thanks for the aircraft information. It’s been quite interesting this week observing the aircraft movements. Unfortunately I didn’t have my phone handy but this afternoon I observed two choppers passing each other close to our house. The vertical and horizontal separation didn’t seem that much but I suppose they were following their assigned pathways.
C@t
Americans are not as conservative as you think. That’s one thing Michael Moore says often. The polls reveal that Americans are overwhelmingly in favour of things that some call “left wing”.
Moore deserves some credit. He not only predicted Trump would win in 2016. He also very accurately said why Trump would win. Moore is also saying that Sanders can win.
BOMBER 912 preparing for another run south of Tharwa:
https://tar1090.adsbexchange.com/?icao=a69072
Cud Chewer @ #1357 Saturday, February 1st, 2020 – 7:46 pm
Hear,hear.
David Speers on taking over Insiders from Barrie Cassidy and the art of the political interview
https://www.abc.net.au/news/about/backstory/television/2020-02-01/insiders-host-david-speers-on-the-art-of-the-political-interview/11906038
“While he happily talks endlessly about politics, Speers laments politicians’ growing reluctance to speak frankly, relying on slogans and talking points which has fuelled widespread public cynicism and disillusionment
“There are many reasons for why that’s happened — the way the media landscape has changed, the way things take off and trend on social media can feed that cynicism in politics.
“Politicians today are generally far more careful in their public interactions and media appearances and I think that doesn’t serve them well in the current environment.
“When they do rely on talking points, when they won’t step outside the party line on a particular issue of the day, voters can see right through that and mark them down, so they are not helping themselves as a result.”
“The most valuable currency in politics today is authenticity and whenever you see a politician speaking authentically you notice it and you, well I anyway, tend to applaud it.
“Doesn’t mean you always agree with what they are saying but at least they are saying what they think and not what they think they should be saying to avoid getting into trouble.
“I think the more politicians can speak from the heart, speak authentically, the better they will do and they better we will be served.”
Cud Chewer @ #1357 Saturday, February 1st, 2020 – 7:46 pm
Cud, Michael Moore said that on Christmas Day last year in the full flush of Trump being Impeached in the House, he thought that made him vulnerable. I would like to hear from Moore in about a couple of months time once the Senate acquits him.
Michael Moore also supported Bernie Sanders in 2016. That makes Moore’s prediction from then, at least, wrong.
Also, Cud, Americans in the middle of America ARE as conservative as I think. Americans on the Coast, not so much. And it’s all about them. The Electoral College says so. And Florida. 🙂
C@tmomma @ #1361 Saturday, February 1st, 2020 – 7:56 pm
He supported Sanders but he correctly called Trump’s win over Clinton if I remember correctly. Concerning Biden, can you not tell that he is a fake. His Dulux brilliant white teeth are a clue (not genuine). I could pick him as a fake from 2 klms away in thick bushfire smoke but we all have different radar.
Thanks Jeager for the flight information. It’s been a busy time over the fire field. I hope all crews in the air and on the ground remain safe.
Unfortunately the Clear Range fire, spawned from the Orroral fire, has resulted in some property loss around Michelago and Thredbo between Canberra and Cooma.
citizen,
Helicopters usually operate in VFR (visual flight rules), so are responsible for maintaining separation from other aircraft, obstacles etc. outside of controlled airspace. The air tankers would also fly VFR.
These days, they are helped by the ADS-B (automatic dependent surveillance broadcast) system, which keeps them informed of who else is up there. (Exploiting the signals for flight tracking maps is a bonus.)
I also think it’s quite quaint that certain people on this blog would prefer to take the opinion of another commenter on this blog to back up their fervour for Bernie Sanders over and above expert American political commentators.
Bellwether @ #1363 Saturday, February 1st, 2020 – 8:01 pm
Trump is a fake. Americans seem to like that sort of thing.
And I could be wrong but I have detected Bernie has nice, white teeth too and less wrinkles than previously. 🙂
sprocket_ @ #1347 Saturday, February 1st, 2020 – 6:33 pm
Not quickly enough for anything other than scoring some political points.
Considering that:
– there’s an asymptomatic incubation period of up to two weeks
– there have been symptomatic infections from ca. Jan 20th
– for each of the ~10,000 confirmed infections there are probably additional infections among people who didn’t report to a hospital/GP
– for each of the ~10,000 confirmed infections there are probably some additional people who are now asymptomatic carriers
…it’s too late to stop carriers/infected people from arriving in Australia. They’d already be here.
IMO what happens hinges on how contagious the virus actually is. If it doesn’t move that easily from person to person then nothing much should happen in Australia, travel ban or no. Or if it does then in a few weeks Australia’s map will be starting to look a lot like China’s and the ban will have come too late to change that.
Unnecessary or ineffective, but a good play to the “swamped by Asians” crowd.
C@tmomma @ #1366 Saturday, February 1st, 2020 – 8:19 pm
No, nothing quaint, we make up our own minds as we see fit. In exactly the same manner that you do. It’s just that we come to a different but equally valid conclusion.
Bellweather,
Don’t get me wrong, I’m not trying to rain on Bernie Sanders’ parade. I’m just trying to be realistic about how American politics works and what is possible considering the constraints the Electoral College places on the Presidential competition.
C@t
I’d like to see Michael Moore explicitly asked about the argument that the Republicans have a bigger bucket of shit to toss at Sanders.
However, I’m not convinced about this either way.
Had coaching been affordable in the ’50s, I’m sure I would’ve done better than winning the Kiama A grade singles title in ’85 against the hard-hitting but inconsistent Bob Blomley.
I have American friends who believe that Bernie Sanders is the candidate would be most likely to defeat Trump and decisively at that too. They argue that Sanders has a lot of support in regions and states which voted heavily for Trump such as West Virginia.
Therefore; I would argue that an Australian equivalent of Bernie Sanders would be former senator Doug Cameron. Because the sort of stuff Cameron has been arguing for would appeal a lot in regions such as the Hunter Valley, Northern Tasmania, Central and Northern Queensland which are own versions of West Virginia in America. Along with appealing to many One Nation and other right-wing populist parties voters.
Cud Chewer @ #1370 Saturday, February 1st, 2020 – 8:29 pm
The stark reality is, winning the POTUS contest in America is the equivalent of playing chess blindfolded and you can only get a feel for the pieces before you make your move. Some you may think are your pieces and you make your move accordingly but they turn out to be effectively manouvered into position by the other side.
Or, as the Americans like to say, ‘It’s a crap shoot.’ Especially wrt the Electoral College.
I just don’t think any of us in Australia can correctly predict the outcome so far out from November. Except to say, there’s always more people in the middle of the bell curve. 🙂
Apart from TAIPAN 42 (RAN 723 Sqn) which appears to be doing a recce of the fire ground, all the other aircraft have returned to base for the night.
C@tmomma @ #1369 Saturday, February 1st, 2020 – 8:28 pm
The way I see it Sanders is a little like FDR who has been rated by many as one of the great US Presidents. So the US has been down a similar road before with good outcomes. So why not Sanders, I understand that it will take some kind of shift in public sentiment but there are some indicators that this is already happening.
‘Why not Sanders?’
1. FDR wasn’t running against Donald Trump and the Saudi Arabia/ Russia/Zuckerburg Axis of Evil.
2. FDR had a weak opponent.
Bellweather,
You have to remember, back in the time of FDR the Republicans were the weaker party of the two. They badly mismanaged the Great Depression, if not caused it with their policies, and the American people punished them accordingly. They were ripe for the picking by the Democrats and their New Deal.
Meh.
Sanders is PRE Boomer.
Bellwether
My concern about Sanders is whether he can truly inspire enough people to vote and in the right places. If the Republican dirt on Sanders is purely about him being socialist then I’m not worried. I’m more worried about the Republicans simply inventing a scandal. Luck has a big part in this too and there’s going to be a lot of “Never Trumpers” getting involved in various ways. In fact I see some Republicans holding their nose and helping Sanders (or Biden for that matter).
Gonna be very interesting…
Looks like we waited for America to announce travel restrictions before announcing anything.
C@tmomma @ #1376 Saturday, February 1st, 2020 – 8:39 pm
Ok, so it looks like it’s Biden then, god help us and god help the USA.
Biden was one of the great enablers of the Iraq invasion. For that he can rot in hell. As can Hilary for her role in Libya and Syria.
.
Joe Biden didn’t just vote to invade Iraq — he worked hard alongside George W. Bush to persuade the public to back it. Biden holds significant responsibility for the bloodshed that has engulfed Iraq and the surrounding region since the invasion.
https://www.jacobinmag.com/2019/07/joe-biden-iraq-war-hawk-presidential-candidate
C@t
You’re quite right that FDR benefited from the Republicans fucking the country up in a big way. However, the US has now seen several decades of both increasing debt and falling real wages. There’s a lot of anger there. Its really a case of whether this becomes an issue or whether its all referendum on Trump.
By Australian standards Bernie Sanders is actually not particularly radical, indeed what Sanders is proposing would be considered ‘centrist’ or at most ‘centre-left’ by the standards of the Australian electorate.
Tristo correct.
And I also think people misread the mood of the American voter. The problem is about which voters actually vote. The angry white men are more motivated. Or at least have been..
Tristo
Free college education and writing off accumulated student loans would not be a centrist position in Australia.
sprocket_ @ #1386 Saturday, February 1st, 2020 – 7:56 pm
Why is the center in favor of drowning students in debt?
LOL come to Australia where Senators who don’t want to face journos are escorted behind whiteboards.
FDR started off reasonably right wing and shifted his ideas as circumstances changed. I understood from posters here that one of Sanders big pluses is that he’s been consistently left of the Democrats.
I don’t see many similarities between Sanders and FDR, which doesn’t mean there are any, just that none occur to me.
Cud Chewer
Way back during the primaries I saw program on the US’s PBS. I still remember one of the panelists saying how there is a mood for change in America and Trump will do well because he does not represent “business as usual” . Hilary being such an insider totally represented ‘business as usual”.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2020/02/01/new-emails-show-how-president-trump-roiled-noaa-during-hurricane-dorian/
citizen – Orroral
The fire fighters have toiled over a very long day. The aircraft were in the air well before dawn. The bomber had its first run at dawn. The helicopters and fixed wing have criss crossed all day.
The fires were somewhat contained earlier in the day, paticularly the heat spot at the south base of Mount Tennet near Tharwa.
The NW NNW and WNW were relentless from about 11.00am in heat around 40° +. There has been moments of optimism.
Late afternoon the fires were in control, busting out of Namadji, hesitant at first at the Clear Range, then straight down to and across the Murrumbidgee River, south of Michelago and into the once fine merino plains of the Monaro.
Bredbo has been a target and the fires have sped accross the remanent dry grass and pasture and with the malice peculiar to bushfires, disastrously careering well into the Tinderry Ranges.
Tonight will be a continuation of the ferocious fires and the indiscriminate losses for many.
New challenges tomorrow for many.
All the while we have sometimes visible PM, still on his P plates, proving as many suspected, a dud as a leader, moving on from the emergency of the bushfires, searching for another hobby, the virus, in which to come of age.
The fires are hell for many and the PM a joke.
From the 2015 Intergenerational Report, the next one being due this year. Looking forward to seeing the update on the Climate Change section.
Link:
https://treasury.gov.au/sites/default/files/2019-03/04_Chapter_1.pdf
Cud Chewer @ #1383 Saturday, February 1st, 2020 – 8:49 pm
Those things of which you speak, have become normalised in American’s minds, to the extent that, Trump will benefit from the first measley rise in the Minumum Wage and Hourly Rates, for decades (and, yes I know that was largely as a result of Democrat’s intiatives).
Wrt to the Debt, there, as here, it only becomes a problem when the Democrats/Labor are in power.
“ Prime Minister Scott Morrison has announced unprecedented new control measures that will see all non-Australians travelling from mainland China barred entry at the border in an attempt to stop the spread of coronavirus.”
This is ridiculous. A week ago the CMO said we would round up Australian kids in Wuhan and send them straight to school. Yesterday the CMO said there was no point putting in a travel ban from China because they can just fly via Singapore.
Where is the consistency? Who is making these decisions?
Diogenes @ #1396 Saturday, February 1st, 2020 – 9:44 pm
The focus groups.
https://www.msnbc.com/msnbc/watch/new-nbc-news-wsj-national-poll-shows-sanders-biden-in-the-lead-77879365694
With Sanders in front in the early states he will be the nominee.
Carter showed how it’s done. Obama promised hope and change in his campaign and got that momentum.
Bloomberg is eating away at Biden’s support base.
Sanders is leading in California. In Texas he is level with Biden trending up. If Sanders wins California and Texas it’s all over that’s a Sanders win.
As for Trump.
https://freespeech.org/stories/leaked-audio-confirms-trump-is-scared-of-bernie/
The final vote on the articles of impeachment will happen on Wednesday 4pm Washington time.
Diogenes @ #1396 Saturday, February 1st, 2020 – 8:44 pm
Politicians. For political advantage.