Essential Research has not allowed the long weekend to interrupt the fortnightly schedule of its polling, which continues to be limited to attitudinal questions. Conducted last Tuesday to this Monday from a sample of 1080, the most interesting question from the latest poll relates to Bridget McKenzie, whom 51% felt should have been stood down by the Prime Minister. Only 15% felt he was right not to do so, while a further 34% said they had not been following the issue. The question included an explanation of what the issue involved, which is always best avoided, but the wording was suitably neutral (“it is claimed she allocated $100million to sporting organisations in marginal seats to favour the Coalition”).
The poll also finds overwhelming support for the establishment of a federal ICAC – or to be precise, of “an independent federal corruption body to monitor the behaviour of our politicians and public servants”. Fully 80% of respondents were in favour, including 49% strongly in favour, which is five points higher than when Angus Taylor’s troubles prompted the same question to be asked in December. Also featured are yet more findings on Australia Day, for which Essential accentuates the positive by framing the question around “a separate national day to recognise indigenous Australians”. Fifty per cent were in favour of such a thing, down two on last year, but only 18% of these believed it should be in place of, rather than supplementary to, Australia Day. Forty per cent did not support such a day at all, unchanged on last year.
Note that there are two threads below this one of hopefully ongoing interest: the latest guest post from Adrian Beaumont on Monday’s Democratic caucuses in Iowa, and other international concerns; and my review of looming elections in Queensland, where the Liberal National Party has now chosen its candidate for the looming Currumbin by-election, who has not proved to the liking of retiring member Jann Stuckey.
It is a pretty sad day.
England has left Europe.
The republican party has left reality
And Australia has banned travel from china.
After viewing the tennis tonight, I think Ash might be a flash; she’d be hard-pressed to match Kenin’s consistency, power – as would most.
Nath’s Movie Reviews
Uncut Gems.
Netflix
A couple of days in the life of a New York jeweller and degenerate gambler as he tries to engineer a huge deal that could end all his troubles. An anxiety inducing whirlwind of a film with some great performances. Not for the faint hearted. 7/10.
Seriously? If you’re not backing Biden, you’re backing a loser.
BB
The Democrats tried running Biden last time. Her name was Hillary Clinton.
A simple generalisation as valid as any saying Sanders or Warren cannot win.
Netflix.
Lucifer. 10/10
Why doesn’t Biden just drop out now? He is just excess baggage now. He can only be a negative for the Democrats.
“ Seriously? If you’re not backing Biden, you’re backing a loser.”
Seriously? Sleepy Joe might not scare independents and voting shy democrats, but he’s not likely to inspire them to come out and queue for hours on a cold November Tuesday either.
“ A simple generalisation as valid as any saying Sanders or Warren cannot win.”
Both generalisations are true.
Sofia Kenin reminds me of a very determined Killer Whale in pursuit of a pod of Sea Lions for dinner!
Diogenes @ #1396 Saturday, February 1st, 2020 – 9:44 pm
As has been observed, Morrison conducts his government in the eternal present. It’s all about the feels from day to day. You’re not supposed to remember what he said or did, or anyone associated with his government said or did, last week. Then compare and contrast.
The one candidate that I am surprised has not done better is Tulsi Gabbard. she strike me as the more moderate version of Warren without the baggage of Biden or politicization of Sanders and she is a vet which plays well in American politics.
I’ve not been following the US election preliminaries closely. Which Democrat would be best to run against Trump? Biden, Sanders or perhaps one of the other 874 hopefuls? I don’t know, but whoever the Democrats pick, every American who finds Trump unacceptable (so non-billionaires and non-white Nationalists) should vote for them.
And all 876 Democrat hopefuls should pledge to support and campaign for the eventual nominee – now.
Biden for me too.Sanders maybe not well enough to be president for maybe 8 years as he recently had a heart attack and I think he will be painted as a socialist or communist more so than Biden.
https://www.mediaite.com/election-2020/tucker-carlson-delivers-gop-a-warning-bernie-sanders-could-win-many-thousands-of-trump-voters/
It is hard to see who can beat Trump.
Maybe Warren/Bloomberg with Warren running on social policies while Bloomberg can throw his cash at Trump or if the Democrats wanted an all women / lefty combination then Warren / Gabbard.
I think it is odds on that Trump will win the next Presidential election. There is just no way to stop the consequences of voter apathy, wilful ignorance and utter stupidity. We are bracing for a foothold amid a tsunami of dumbfvckery. It is no point arguing with it, the only thing is to brace yourself and wait until the worst wears itself out and then pick up debris, and start repairing what is left.
Beemer yeah I could cope with that..
What about Sanders/Bloomberg?
Cud
I think if Sanders won the nomination then he will go with someone like Gabbard which could work.
Sanders/Bloomberg could work but for no real reason i just feel Sanders running with a billionaire VP candidate would blunt his message but that could be said of Warren except she appears to be more of a mainstream candidate.
Thing is, Sanders needs Bloomberg’s money to counter the inevitable shit being thrown at him.
Puffytmd
The biggest problem the Democrats have is the American economic is in good shape with low unemployment and rising wages.
Beemer, there’s a lot of Americans who don’t feel like the economy is in good shape, personally. Many are experiencing falling real wages and rising insecurity.
Cud
Absolutely Sanders does need Bloomberg’s money and i could see them on a ticket. Bloomberg is unusual for a billionaire in that he made his money by charging bankers for info so maybe it isn’t a stretch for him and Sanders to work together.
Mavis (an old tennis champ, way back) @ #1402 Saturday, February 1st, 2020 – 9:16 pm
I tend to disagree. Muguruza defeated herself there. Especially at the end. But also throughout the match. At one point they showed breakpoint stats; Muguruza had earned 11 to Kenin’s 3. Problem was she failed to convert, and more due to nerves than being outclassed tennis-wise.
It was more or less the same with Kenin’s victory over Barty. Barty made a ton of unforced errors that match, especially on her backhand side. Had she played up to her usual standard she probably would have won.
Cud Chewer says:
Saturday, February 1, 2020 at 11:55 pm
Beemer, there’s a lot of Americans who don’t feel like the economy is in good shape, personally. Many are experiencing falling real wages and rising insecurity.
—————————
Unemployment rate of 3.5%, wage growth above 3% per year, inflation less than 2% and very low interest rates.
Scotty from Marketing would kill for those numbers and poor Joshy F would be speechless.
Yes, but the distribution.. overwhelmingly the benefits are going to the university educated.
Still a lot of working poor in the US.
Cud Chewer says:
Sunday, February 2, 2020 at 12:10 am
Yes, but the distribution.. overwhelmingly the benefits are going to the university educated.
Still a lot of working poor in the US.
—————————
That is also a growing trend here and goes someway to explaining growing inequality.
At this stage from what I’ve seen beside maybe Yang there hasn’t been much talk about the non-university educated.
FWIW Dem candidate
Sanders 1.40
Biden 3.45
Buttigieg 9
Warren 12
Trump still 1.70 to win
Seriously people, this is from yesterday
“ But Australia’s chief medical officer Brendan Murphy says banning direct flights from China is not recommended as a public health measure.
“The World Health Organisation strongly recommends that nations do not ban flights from China because unless you lock down exit from the country, banning direct flights doesn’t stop people coming from China,” Professor Murphy told reporters in Canberra.
“They could come from all sorts of other ports and at least we know who is coming from China and we can meet and do very intensive border measures for those flights.””
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6608784/union-wants-all-flights-from-china-banned/
Growing inequality, and the extreme cruelty and stupidity of the US system makes those numbers almost meaningless. Thirty years of trickle down and the best of economics is close to destroying its own societies.
It is pretty diabolical, the insanity of the GOP defending someone who has pissed on the the constitution every day of his presidency, the UK voting for brexit, Australia with a high court that said electoral fraud is AOK in Australia and a legal system that doesn’t think corruption, including unlawfully taking taxpayer money to buy elections is criminal.
So very broken.
This is an incisive , blistering piece by Ian McEwan, on Brexit.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/feb/01/brexit-pointless-masochistic-ambition-history-done
Couldn’t help but note this…Scotty is not alone
“… …. a special kind of smirk, perfected back in the days of the old Soviet Union. I’m lying, you know I’m lying and I know that you know and I don’t give a damn. As in, “The five-week prorogation of parliament has nothing to do with Brexit.” Michael Gove and Jacob Rees-Mogg were masters of the mocking grin.“
https://reneweconomy.com.au/nordic-steel-giant-to-use-renewable-hydrogen-to-produce-fossil-free-steel-by-2026-2026/
Yes, its a process that will take until 2040. But the first hydrogen based steel will be produced in 6 years from now. So much for even our metallurgical coal industry in the “foreseeable future”.
It bears repeating. I think Labor should have as a policy a new steel making industry based on hydrogen. Oh and Newcastle would be a great location. But I’m biased.
If this is in reference to the decision on signage in Kooyong and Chisholm then this is just a wildly inaccurate summary of what actually happened.
Jackol,
I think it’s been a long time since Australians have seen an Australian Institution stand up for the Australian people rather than it’s masters.
The high court judgement on the those posters was more along the lines of, “it’s difficult to judge just how much of an impact this had, so we’ll say it had no impact. Totally fine to use those colors better luck next time.”
The fact that they didn’t do anything means that it’ll happen again and make pursuing cases harder for the future.
Bloomberg has already committed to contributing campaign funding from his personal coffers for the democrat candidate, even if its not him.
BAA I hope that is so because the best way to deal with the Republicans in key locations is to do exactly what Palmer did – buy every advertising slot.
Ok, (a) it wasn’t the High Court – the High Court, as the Court of Disputed Returns, handballed this to the Federal court; the judgment in this matter was handed down by three justices of the Federal court. Calling it a High Court judgment is just wrong.
and (b) go read the judgment. The court actually went out of their way to point out that the signs should be considered to be in contravention of the electoral act provisions on misleading or deceptive publications, and that the AEC should not make the mistake of brushing this off in future. Further the court asked the Liberal Party’s Simon Frost (who authorized the signs) to explain why he should not be referred for offences under the Electoral Act.
This was all covered and commented upon well at the time on PB:
https://www.pollbludger.net/2019/12/25/slap-on-the-writs/
See also, eg, the ABC report where the guy who brought the action said he “was extremely happy with the outcome”:
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-12-24/josh-frydenberg-gladys-liu-election-dispute-judgment/11824734
The characterization that the court was saying that the signage was ok is simply wrong – they did quite the opposite, and in fact they went out of their way to make sure that was clear to all concerned.
Jakol,
Sorry about my characterization that it was the high court.
But I have to say, no one has suffered any consequence yet. Simon Frost had to write a letter at most.
Usually when you want to make sure something is crystal clear, you make the thought of the consequences a deterrent.
Our MP’s and their staff currently go wild with their travel entitlements and on review, or really when the get caught out, they only pay back the errors. That’s the kind of pond scum the courts are dealing with.
So the court has currently made the point, if you do this it’s pretty bad and we’ll make your write a letter, watch out!
It’ll happen again. They should have refereed Simon Frost.
In 6 days we can go looking for what he submitted to the court. Hopefully if we’re lucky they court will find it wanting and draw and quarter the guy. If they don’t then the message they send is:
“Totally fine to use those methods next time, just get your letter writing skills ready”
Good morning Dawn Patrollers. I have installed the Bypass Paywalls extension to my Chrome browser and it is working well.
Shane Wright reports that the Morrison government may be facing a tougher battle to produce the nation’s first federal budget surplus in more than a decade, with new figures pointing to an unexpected drop in GST and company tax revenues.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/lower-tax-collections-point-to-budget-pressures-for-federal-government-20200131-p53wmn.html
Claire Kimball wonders if Morrison will waste the political opportunity presented the coronavirus crisis.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/a-tale-of-two-crises-and-and-why-the-pm-hasn-t-been-burnt-yet-by-the-coronavirus-20200131-p53wo3.html
I highly recommend that you read this amazingly written and compelling piece by Martin McKenzie-Murray, an historically sexually abused person who has been following and writing about the child abuse royal commission and the Harvey Weinstein case.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/i-vainly-believed-i-had-the-fortitude-to-report-on-child-abuse-but-there-was-always-my-own-case-20200130-p53wbj.html
A firsthand account from Christopher Knaus and Mike Bowers who were caught in the middle of the Canberra bushfire yesterday.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/feb/01/terror-on-all-sides-inside-a-firestorm-tearing-through-the-australian-bush
The chief executive of Environment Victoria, Jono La Nauze, writes that if Victoria adopts emissions targets in line with the Paris Agreement, it is possible for other states to follow suit, creating a de-facto national climate change strategy.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/the-princes-highway-to-climate-action-20200131-p53wg6.html
Lily Kuo writes that there is paranoia and frustration as China places itself under house arrest over coronavirus.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/01/across-china-cities-turn-into-ghost-towns-as-coronavirus-infects-more-than-10000
From San Francisco Julia Carrie Wong writes that as the coronavirus spreads, misinformation is spreading even faster.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/jan/31/coronavirus-misinformation-spread-facebook-conspiracy-theories
The “quiet” rollout of two government-owned digital identity platforms is a signal we could soon see the launch of a National Digital ID, tech insiders say.
https://thenewdaily.com.au/life/tech/2020/01/31/national-digital-id-australia/
Against rorting accusations, Bridget McKenzie’s position seems safe, while handling of the coronavirus outbreak has been met with criticism, writes John Wren in his weekly political roundup.
https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/wrens-week-bridget-mckenzie-and-the-wuhan-virus-wont-go-away,13552
Jacqui Maley writes that Abbott’s dystopian hierarchy of wombs has at least sparked a debate we need to have.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/abbott-s-dystopian-hierarchy-of-wombs-at-least-he-s-sparked-a-debate-we-need-to-have-20200131-p53wj9.html
Simon Cowan says there are lessons for Australia in Brexit – but not the ones we think.
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6606453/there-are-lessons-for-australia-in-brexit/?cs=14258
Peter FitzSimons declares that the wave that Tony Abbott rode all the way to the top has crashed.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/the-wave-that-tony-abbott-rode-all-the-way-to-the-top-has-crashed-20200131-p53wjn.html
Katie Burgess reports that Australians were hit with more than $100 million in taxpayer-funded advertising in the lead-up to the 2019 federal election. Hardly surprising!
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6608396/government-advertising-spending-ramped-up-in-lead-up-to-2019-election/?cs=14350
In a scathing contribution Richard Wolffe says that the Republicans have marched over the impeachment cliff – taking their self-respect with them.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/jan/31/republicans-impeachment-trump-richard-wolffe
U.S. President Donald Trump’s Middle East peace plan to alter the position of the West Bank contravenes international law and only serves to help both he and the Israeli Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, to be re-elected.
https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/trumps-deal-of-the-century-delivered-to-be-rejected-it,13553
Cartoon Corner – Cathy Wilcox is taking a several moths break from cartooning.
Matt Golding
Richard Gilberto
Peter Broelman
Sean Leahy
Reg Lynch
From the US
https://www.pollbludger.net/2020/01/30/essential-research-sports-rorts-icac-australia-day/comment-page-28/#comment-3333152
Who’s making these decisions?
Advising?
In charge, indirectly?
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7949467/Alan-Jones-blows-Foreign-Minister-not-grounding-single-flight-China.html
A nice thought.
Of course Donald is scared of Bernie, integrity and truth are kryptonite to him.
Bellwether @ #1442 Sunday, February 2nd, 2020 – 7:30 am
Such high ideals are essentially meaningless to the American people when it comes time to vote. They care more about whether they have a job.
And the truth is, the Trump campaign machine will destroy Bernie Sanders.
Former GOP lawyer leaves the Republican Party with a parting blast at ‘lawless, immoral’ Trump
In a column for the Daily Beast, former House Republican Congressional Committee Investigative Counsel Sophia Nelson declared she is done with her now-former party and put the reason for her departure squarely on the shoulders of the Republican leadership that has thrown its full support behind Donald Trump no matter what he does.
Noting that she has been a Republican since 1988 – “That Republican party is gone. This new Republican Party is beholden to a lawless, immoral, godless man. I have watched people I have known for decades twist themselves into human pretzels to defend him, excuse him, exalt him,” she wrote.
https://www.rawstory.com/2020/02/former-gop-lawyer-leaves-the-republican-party-with-a-parting-blast-at-lawless-immoral-trump/
Jared Kushner burned to the ground for claiming Bolton and other departed Trump officials ‘didn’t have what it took’
In an interview to be broadcast on Sunday on CNN, Donald Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner tells CNN’s Fareed Fareed Zakaria that former national security adviser John Bolton — as well as other now-departed White House officials — didn’t “have what it took” to serve under the president.
CNN reports, “Kushner went on to suggest that Bolton and other senior former officials, including former Defense Secretary James Mattis and former White House chief of staff John Kelly, didn’t have the chops to perform their jobs to the level needed.”
A willingness to commit crimes? — Alex Wild
If only they had married princess Ivanka! — Texas Karen
https://www.rawstory.com/2020/02/jared-kushner-burned-to-the-ground-for-claiming-bolton-and-other-departed-trump-officials-didnt-have-what-it-took/
Diogenes @ #1428 Sunday, February 2nd, 2020 – 12:17 am
And the bookies were just as wrong as the polls last May in Australia.
In news that surprises nobody, including Bibi and Dotard….
“The Arab League has completely rejected US President Donald Trump’s Middle East plan during an emergency meeting in Egypt’s capital, saying it would not lead to a just peace deal.
In a statement on Saturday, the pan-Arab bloc said it “rejects the US-Israeli ‘deal of the century’ considering that it does not meet the minimum rights and aspirations of Palestinian people.”
Arab states also agreed “not to … cooperate with the US administration to implement this plan,” adding that Israel should not implement the initiative by force. They insisted on a two-state solution that includes a Palestinian state based on borders before the 1967 war, when Israel occupied the West Bank, Gaza and East Jerusalem. They also called for East Jerusalem to be the capital of the future Palestinian state.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/02/arab-league-holds-emergency-meeting-trump-plan-200201105251740.html
C@tmomma @ #1443 Sunday, February 2nd, 2020 – 7:38 am
Sorry, I’m highly idealistic with a strong dash of individualism and healthy dislike of the status quo (as I believe we all should be) and I’m not about to change that. I would always support an honest broker. I’m also hopeful that the Democratic campaign machine will destroy Trump, reduce him to hamburger mince. What shouldn’t be forgotten in any sober, rational analysis is that the problem with an establishment nominee like Biden is that he has enough baggage to single-handedly fill the hold of a 747 and the Trump campaign will rightly exploit that mercilessly.
Rick Wilson – democracy in the good old USA – reporting he and his family/kids are copping death threats ……
“Thing is, Sanders needs Bloomberg’s money to counter the inevitable shit being thrown at him.”
***
Bloomberg has already committed to funding whoever faces Trump, even if it’s someone other than himself.