Essential Research: sports rorts, ICAC, Australia Day

The latest from Essential finds majority support for removing Bridget McKenzie, but with a third saying they haven’t been following the issue.

Essential Research has not allowed the long weekend to interrupt the fortnightly schedule of its polling, which continues to be limited to attitudinal questions. Conducted last Tuesday to this Monday from a sample of 1080, the most interesting question from the latest poll relates to Bridget McKenzie, whom 51% felt should have been stood down by the Prime Minister. Only 15% felt he was right not to do so, while a further 34% said they had not been following the issue. The question included an explanation of what the issue involved, which is always best avoided, but the wording was suitably neutral (“it is claimed she allocated $100million to sporting organisations in marginal seats to favour the Coalition”).

The poll also finds overwhelming support for the establishment of a federal ICAC – or to be precise, of “an independent federal corruption body to monitor the behaviour of our politicians and public servants”. Fully 80% of respondents were in favour, including 49% strongly in favour, which is five points higher than when Angus Taylor’s troubles prompted the same question to be asked in December. Also featured are yet more findings on Australia Day, for which Essential accentuates the positive by framing the question around “a separate national day to recognise indigenous Australians”. Fifty per cent were in favour of such a thing, down two on last year, but only 18% of these believed it should be in place of, rather than supplementary to, Australia Day. Forty per cent did not support such a day at all, unchanged on last year.

Note that there are two threads below this one of hopefully ongoing interest: the latest guest post from Adrian Beaumont on Monday’s Democratic caucuses in Iowa, and other international concerns; and my review of looming elections in Queensland, where the Liberal National Party has now chosen its candidate for the looming Currumbin by-election, who has not proved to the liking of retiring member Jann Stuckey.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,092 comments on “Essential Research: sports rorts, ICAC, Australia Day”

  1. E. G. Theodore @ #2734 Sunday, February 2nd, 2020 – 5:04 pm

    rhwombat:

    Rick Morten’s article in The Saturday Paper is the best lay summary of 2019-nCoV situation that I have seen.
    [link: https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/health/2020/02/01/the-coronavirus-epidemic/15804756009332%5D

    It seems like a fantastic triumph of science, medicine and engineering is progressively being undermined completely by dickhead politicians in China, Australia and elsewhere (and in Australia’s case apparently including our CMO). At least with Y2K the undermining didn’t really start until the triumph had succeeded in removing the problem.

    There are few triumphs in medicine – progress is measured in slight and temporary declines in loss.

  2. That Hawaiian shirt is going to follow Morrison around forever.

    It’s a bit like Saints in the Catholic Church. When represented visually, in paintings for example, they have ‘attributes’. For St Peter it’s a set of keys (to Heaven) and/or fishing gear.

    So for Saint Scott of The Shire?
    – a lump of coal
    – a cross
    – a Hawaiian shirt
    – a cocktail
    – fire

  3. BK says @ 7:02 pm

    Keeping the shining lights of the born to rule mentality, corruption, graft, climate and science denial, religious bigotry, etc glowing at full power.

  4. Incidentally.. who saw the Lomborg article in the Australian yesterday?

    That’s because, for decades to come, solar and wind energy will be neither cheap enough nor effective enough to replace fossil fuels. Today, they make up only 1.1 per cent of global energy use and the International Energy Agency estimates that even after we spend $US3 trillion ($4.47 trillion) more on subsidies, they will not even reach 5 per cent by 2040. Innovation is needed to bring down the price of green energy. We need to find breakthroughs for batteries, nuclear, carbon capture and a plethora of other promising technologies. Innovation can solve our climate challenge.

    That has to be the most bizarre, ignorant, what-universe-is-he-in thing I’ve read in some time.

  5. Greensborough Growler:

    [‘Some posts today were surely in contravention of dear moderator’s guidelines?
    given you were banned, but refused to go ????’]

    [‘It was just a misunderstatement, your honour!’]

    Your posts today, if the commenting guidelines are to be observed objectively by dear moderator, should reduce you to the prick you are. You’re shameful, to say the least, in response to nath, et al. You’re no better than a “Vicious Grogan”. Get off the piss!

  6. Bellwether:

    That’s quite a Trumpian piece of logic. President Carter was indeed President Carter.

    No competent politician with the advantages of incumbency would have lost the 1980 election to any Republican given the Nixon situation in 1974-76.

    Mr Carter was and is a great public servant, but his political incompetence (basically being far too decent and honourable) meant that—at a critical time for the USA—he was incapable of being an effective President. Unfortunately his incapacity permitted the craziness into the system (who let the dogs in); the US polity has never recovered and may now be terminal.

    A much better riposte would have been to assert Mr Trump isn’t an effective President either; the difference is that he has isn’t trying to be and instead has fundamentally changed the role into one of complete venality.

  7. Blog watch 2/2/2020
    The Conversation? “ethically misguided and downright dangerous” NOT to Censor Climate Deniers
    Even if climate skeptics were totally wrong, there is no justification for shutting down our right to be wrong. Unlike shouting “fire” in a crowded theatre, no single climate “shout”, no matter how wrong, has the potential to alter the trajectory of society to such an extent that measurable harm could be ascribed to it.
    People are getting fed up with the denial crap and they are getting upset people are getting fed up with their crap.
    https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/02/01/the-conversation-ethically-misguided-and-downright-dangerous-not-to-censor-climate-deniers/
    Climate change is causing the Arctic to become GREENER as warmer temperatures cause trees and plants to flourish in the frozen world
    And the greening observed is easily explained not by temperatures but by CO2 levels — which have undoubtedly risen. Higher CO encourages plant growth and enables plants to survive with less water. Terrestrial Arctica is essentially a desert so that latter fact is crucial. In the results below we may simply be seeing the normal fertilizing effect of increased CO2.
    God the bullshit your exposed to.
    http://antigreen.blogspot.com/
    PETER SAINSBURY. Sunday environmental round up, 2 February 202
    Despite the rhetoric of support for action to combat climate change from senior company executives and members of government, banks and rich nations continue to fund the development of coal mines and power stations, even in countries that currently don’t have any coal power. Centuries of abuse of waterways leads to problems along the Mekong River and in the Everglades, and plagues of locusts devastate crops in East Africa.
    Worth a read, but take your anti depression tabs first.
    https://johnmenadue.com/peter-sainsbury-sunday-environmental-round-up-2-february-2020/#more-35711
    counting the costs of Australia’s bushfires
    It’s not easy to estimate the total economic cost of Australia’s bushfires that have burnt through vast areas of the country, especially as the fire season may continue as late as March. The total impact on human lives, the economy and environment is complicated and some costs may continue to grow for years to come.
    https://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/themoney/counting-the-costs-of-australias-bushfires/11913020
    Normal Brits hate the BBC like normal Aussies hate the woke-inner-city ABC
    I’m trying to pick an interesting post when a site does multiple posts a day. This is the best of a bad lot. I wonder if Michael knows what woke means?
    https://www.michaelsmithnews.com/2020/02/normal-brits-hate-the-bbc-like-normal-aussies-hate-the-woke-inner-city-abc.html
    South Australia to be energy island for two weeks, four wind farms sidelined
    The loss of the towers north of Colac, on the Moorabool to Mortlake and Moorabool to Tarrone transmission lines, has effectively closed the main electricity highway between Victoria and South Australia (the Heywood Interconnector).
    First report I have found anywhere that details why the line went down. No breathless chris uhlmann telling us wandering wind turbines are to blame?
    https://reneweconomy.com.au/south-australia-to-be-energy-island-for-two-weeks-four-wind-farms-sidelined-30929/
    13 headline questions and observations following the long-term islanding, starting Friday 31st January 2020
    It your into this sort of thing definitely worth a read.
    http://www.wattclarity.com.au/articles/2020/02/fri31jan2020-13headlinequestions/
    Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #5
    Worth a look
    https://skepticalscience.com/2020-SkS-Weekly-News-Roundup_05.html
    The foundations of monetary macroeconomics: Online lecture to Exploring Economics Global Editorial team
    If your into economic modelling, worth a listen.
    https://www.patreon.com/posts/foundations-of-33391416
    feedbacks, runaway, and tipping points
    There’s been some discussion on Twitter about feedbacks, runaways, and tipping points. The issue is that some seem to confuse these and sometimes imply that we could cross thresholds where we’ll undergo a runaway. I thought I would briefly try to explain these terms.
    New site added to list monitored.
    https://andthentheresphysics.wordpress.com/2020/02/01/feebacks-runaway-and-tipping-points/

  8. Cud Chewer says:
    Sunday, February 2, 2020 at 7:56 pm
    a r

    All serious meetings should be conducted nude. Especially between heads of state. Its a great leveller

    OTOH, I remember reading somewhere “Nude people have no influence in society. How many influential people have you seen nude?”

    Of course, all cabinet meetings could be conducted in the sauna at parliament house (assuming they have a sauna).

  9. GG:

    E. G. Theodore @ #1987 Sunday, February 2nd, 2020 – 6:14 pm

    The fake wokeness contest between GG and Nath as to who is the biggest “homophobe” is amongst the most stupid things yet seen on PB, whilst also being highly amusing (presumably the point).

    Keep it going team!

    You’re the sort of guy that goes to a car racing event and watches the accident horror through finger splayed hands.

    Go on, admit you are Nath!

    Do it! Do it!

    Even if you aren’t Nath in fact, it will suite your penchant for self amusement.

  10. My favourite poem from Smokocchio courtesy of Mark David.

    I love a quiet Australian,
    Who never dares complain,
    I love our unique fauna,
    And all their charred remains.

    I love our far horizons,
    That cant be seen for smoke,
    I love the way I took off to
    Hawaii for a joke.

    I love our generous sports grants,
    For nurturing new elites,
    The suckers who applied for funds
    But werent in marginal seats.

  11. Mavis to GG:

    You’re no better than a “Vicious Grogan”. Get off the piss!

    When push comes to shove, Mavis can always be relied upon to side with the trolls, Lars-thing and Nath-thing.

    Implying drunkenness is the refuge of the coward. Even worse, it’s uninventive.

    The Mavis-thing has a perfect record in this regard.

  12. “Best in the world” eh? Just like the Morrison government had the best bushfire emergency preparations in the world so that could holiday in Hawaii knowing the fires would present little more than a petty annoyance.

    What’s this “Remain calm” about coronavirus thing? What happened to “Be alert but not alarmed”? Where are the fridge magnets seeking a donation to the Liberal Party?

    Asked why the measures were being put in place only today, Mr Morrison said that up to now the virus has been mostly only found in the Hubei province of China that is centred on the ground zero city of Wuhan.

    “The advice of the chief medical officer is that people who had been in mainland China prior to today are not presenting that risk. But the risk is beginning to escalate from now.”

    He said Australians should “remain calm” about the risks of coronavirus.

    “We have the best medical facilities, the best preparations, the best way of managing and maintaining things anywhere in the world,” he said.

    https://www.news.com.au/travel/travel-updates/health-safety/queenslands-premier-demands-government-ban-china-flights-after-tenth-australian-case-confirmed/news-story/6006599d9ddfef68bcc01890a2f0156a

  13. Player One:

    E. G. Theodore @ #1981 Sunday, February 2nd, 2020 – 6:03 pm

    The facts also include that I am not now nor have I ever been a member of the Labor party! You are not entitled to base an argument on the incorrect fact that I am some sort of “Labor” (as you did in the rest of your response, not quoted). Any argument so based is fundamentally fallacious and not salvageable.

    Well, I can certainly understand why you would want to distance yourself from the Labor party … but this actually has little to do with the discussion.
    If you want to argue the issues go right ahead. If you just want to avoid the issues by raising pointless irrelevancies, then I think we can all understand that as well.

    Madam – I did not try to “distance myself from the Labor party” I made no statement to that effect, and have no interest in either distancing myself from or inveigling my way into the ALP. Your “understanding” that I was trying to do this is untenable (albeit presumably based on logical inchoateness, rather than malice) and is irrelevant.

    My only interest in relation to the ALP is that starting from opposition they have about a 10% chance of forming a competent government at any such election. This compares to (currently) 0% for everyone else. 10% is better than 0%, and that’s it.

    The raising of falsehoods which are by definition “pointless irrelevancies” was in this thread undertaken entirely by yourself.

  14. GG:

    P1 went to an ALP meeting once.

    Didn’t like it.

    Apparently, no one had any interest in what she had to say.

    A bit like PB, really!

    PK went to an ALP Left branch once

    Gave a great speech

    Apparently, no one had any interest in what he had to say. No response – Keating speech cancelled, or so they thought…

    PK went to the same ALP Left branch again

    Same thing happened, and on it went.

    PK became the most effective politician in Australia’s history: his response to being forced to make the hard yards was: “make the yards harder – I’m training to be the best”.

  15. Normal Brits hate the BBC like normal Aussies hate the woke-inner-city ABC

    I’m trying to pick an interesting post when a site does multiple posts a day. This is the best of a bad lot. I wonder if Michael knows what woke means?

    https://www.michaelsmithnews.com/2020/02/normal-brits-hate-the-bbc-like-normal-aussies-hate-the-woke-inner-city-abc.html

    Michael Smith is a rather pathetic jilted lover, once having been involved in an apparent menage-a-trois with Kathy Jackson and her other (his own description) “c☆nt struck” lover Michael Lawler J. , while they all co-habited the flash mansion of retired, but demented QC David Rofe. It all ended in tears and fisticuffs on the Leisure Coast, a few miles north of Woollongong and a thousand miles from care.

    What’s not to love with this man?

  16. Morrison has reputation deficit.
    Since before Christmas, clad in ridiculous shirts, shoes, caps and grandiose ambitions Morrison has managed to trash his own self-immortalized brand in a series of responses to leadership requirements by alienating substance and imposing his own brand of process.
    The Morrison PMship is hanging by threads before any leadership has passed beyond an embryonic stage. The esteemed colleagues, hands covering their face in despair and well hidden from the media will need to confront the reality of Morrison’s miraculous conception to the PMship and and the following election.
    The colleagues realize their roles in the hyperbole that is evident for all to see. The disengaged are becoming engaged and the projection is negative.
    If only the drought stricken vast expanses of Australia had as many clouds hanging over their heads!
    Is Morrison just a stumble away from the next episode of his boys own adventure?
    Blue Hills, #96, the Sullivans, the Wannabe. They’re often compelling, not always for the right reasons.

  17. MickMack&Crack…

    From Deputy PM @M_McCormackMP: “The position of Deputy Leader of The Nationals is a matter for The Nationals Party Room, which is scheduled to meet on Tuesday 4 February 2020.”

    Also, according to Alice Workman, now trousering the grubby Murdoch shilling, there is a Newspoll tonight.

  18. Good report on Trump’s Bantustan Lite Palestine Plan.

    “ The Trump proposals are a betrayal of the Palestinians, of course. But they are not unique to Trump and they are exactly what Blair, Bush and all the zionist apologists intended all along.

    The “two state solution” was always a con.”

    https://www.craigmurray.org.uk/archives/2020/02/non-condemnatory-international-reaction-to-trumps-bantustan-lite-shows-the-two-state-solution-was-always-a-lie/

  19. C@tmomma:

    E. G. Theodore @ #2021 Sunday, February 2nd, 2020 – 6:56 pm

    nath:

    I wonder if the flagrant nature of these grants had something to do with the fact that the government assumed they were getting turfed out and now it has come back to bite.

    Correct in my view – flogging the silverware to deserving electorates whilst in the getaway car speeding from the heist (in the expectation of being turfed out) rather than trying to influence the election. Basher Bowe’s analysis demonstrates that it did not influence the election, suggesting the different motive (I said something like this at the time, perhaps even on PB). Patronage not politics.

    When, in actual fact you are both wrong. It has been credibly reported after the May election that the Coalition held tight their tracking polling which indicated they were on course for the win they duly got.

    Your theory is invalidated by the timing of the decisions, mostly made in January and February before the tracking data indicated any realistic possibility of a win.

    I’m still not credibly convinced that those Sorts Grants in Marginal seats didn’t play a part in that win.

    Basher’s argument is fairly strong – perhaps we need a contribution from Heavy Kevvie?

  20. E. G. Theodore @ #2071 Sunday, February 2nd, 2020 – 9:20 pm

    GG:

    P1 went to an ALP meeting once.

    Didn’t like it.

    Apparently, no one had any interest in what she had to say.

    A bit like PB, really!

    PK went to an ALP Left branch once

    Gave a great speech

    Apparently, no one had any interest in what he had to say. No response – Keating speech cancelled, or so they thought…

    PK went to the same ALP Left branch again

    Same thing happened, and on it went.

    PK became the most effective politician in Australia’s history: his response to being forced to make the hard yards was: “make the yards harder – I’m training to be the best”.

    I’ve been to Munganna. But, I’ve never been to me.

  21. Well guys and galls, just got the last stage out of Dodge City………Whoops, meant Shanghai……..
    The city is quiet like any Oz country town on Sunday. There was no issue getting out to the airport as hire cars still on the go…………Nearly all persons wearing a mask of come kind.
    Coming through KL – as Singapore was shut down, one would think the virus did not exist.
    Such were the travel requirements getting back into Sandgropia – at least at the airport, the only requirement one was to “report in sick if you are not feeling well”.
    Now into 14 days self-administered house detention to keep Sandgropia pure and pristine.

  22. The Coalition has taken a damaging electoral hit from the bushfire crisis and sports rorts ­controversy that forced the resignation of cabinet minister Bridget McKenzie as Scott Morrison’s popularity flatlines.

    An exclusive Newspoll conducted for The Australian shows popular support for the Coalition tumbling to 38 per cent, with the Prime Minister battling to ­recover from the voter anger over his initial handling of the ­national bushfire emergency late last year.

    The fall in support has resulted in a two-point turnaround in the two-party-preferred vote to 52-48 per cent in favour of Labor.
    The latest result comes ahead of the return to parliament on Tuesday and the first Liberal party­room meeting since early ­December, with Liberal MPs likely to be rattled by the numbers.
    The Liberal-Nationals primary vote is down two points from the first poll of the year, conducted three weeks ago, and is now down 3.4 points on the May election ­result.

    It marks a significant reversal of fortune for the Coalition, which had bucked a historical trend to dominate the polls for the first six months of its third term in government.

    But voter approval of Opposition Leader Anthony Albanese has also fallen sharply, as has Labor’s primary vote, which is down a point to 35 per cent, with the Greens gaining a point to a long-term high of 13 per cent.

    Mr Morrison’s approval ratings plummeted in early January when Newspoll conducted the first voter survey of the year, falling eight points to 37 per cent while dissatisfaction with the Liberal leader rose 11 points to 59 per cent.

    Those numbers remain unchanged in the latest poll, which surveyed 1510 voters across the major capitals and country regions between last Wednesday and Saturday. Approval ratings for Mr Albanese have also fallen — three points to 43 per cent — having hit a post-election high of 46 per cent in the previous poll.

    The Labor leader’s dissatisfaction numbers rose by the same to 40 per cent, marking a six-point turnaround in the net ­approval ratings that assess voters’ ­opinion of a leader’s performance.

    In the head-to-head contest, Mr Albanese has consolidated his lead as the preferred prime minster, remaining at 43 per cent compared with Mr Morrison who dropped a point to 38 per cent.

    At the end of last year, and ­before the uproar over his overseas holiday, Mr Morrison enjoyed a healthy lead over his rival: 48 to 34 per cent.

    Support for Pauline Hanson’s One Nation remained unchanged at 4 per cent, which is still marginally higher than the election result of 3.1 per cent.

    However, there was a significant shift in support for other minor parties, which climbed two points to 10 per cent. This is still down on the 11.8 per cent recorded at the election, which was elevated due to the ­re-emergence of Queensland mining mogul Clive Palmer as a political force.

    The Coalition won the election with a primary vote of 41.4 per cent compared with 33.3 per cent for Labor. It had built on this ­result throughout the last half of year to post a high of 42 per cent, while Labor had fallen behind its election result several times.

    The margin of error is plus or minus 2.5 percentage points.

  23. Chewer:

    All serious meetings should be conducted nude. Especially between heads of state. Its a great leveller

    http://hottestheadsofstate.com/list/

    Is an absolutely ridiculous list. Mostly of people who are actually not Heads of State. Jacinta Ardern is number four, but of course disqualified. The number one is the PM of Spain (disqualified) and the King of Spain (actually HoS) is also listed. Mr Trump (not disqualified) is listed ahead of Mr Johnson (disqualified) despite the fact that Mr Trump routinely has to pay for sex whilst Mr Johnson never does. And our Mr Morrison (disqualified) is listed ahead of both! Mr. Putin (not disqualified) is listed just ahead of Mr Medvedev (currently disqualified). Her Majesty (not disqualified) doesn’t make the top 100, which is clearly ageism. Last is Kim Jong Un – which is actually right.

  24. Vogon Poet:

    [‘in contravention of dear moderator’s guidelines?
    given you were banned, but refused to go ????’]

    Eff off young dear Vogen Poet, perhaps you might sanguinely defer to T.S Eliot’s:

    [‘The Waste Land is widely regarded as one of the most important poems of the 20th century and a central work of modernist poetry. While it is not considered as Eliot’s masterpiece by many critics, it is undoubtedly his most famous poem…’]

    I thought you might that you might not do abstract, as same as the convoluted old GG, BB.

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