Essential Research has not allowed the long weekend to interrupt the fortnightly schedule of its polling, which continues to be limited to attitudinal questions. Conducted last Tuesday to this Monday from a sample of 1080, the most interesting question from the latest poll relates to Bridget McKenzie, whom 51% felt should have been stood down by the Prime Minister. Only 15% felt he was right not to do so, while a further 34% said they had not been following the issue. The question included an explanation of what the issue involved, which is always best avoided, but the wording was suitably neutral (“it is claimed she allocated $100million to sporting organisations in marginal seats to favour the Coalition”).
The poll also finds overwhelming support for the establishment of a federal ICAC – or to be precise, of “an independent federal corruption body to monitor the behaviour of our politicians and public servants”. Fully 80% of respondents were in favour, including 49% strongly in favour, which is five points higher than when Angus Taylor’s troubles prompted the same question to be asked in December. Also featured are yet more findings on Australia Day, for which Essential accentuates the positive by framing the question around “a separate national day to recognise indigenous Australians”. Fifty per cent were in favour of such a thing, down two on last year, but only 18% of these believed it should be in place of, rather than supplementary to, Australia Day. Forty per cent did not support such a day at all, unchanged on last year.
Note that there are two threads below this one of hopefully ongoing interest: the latest guest post from Adrian Beaumont on Monday’s Democratic caucuses in Iowa, and other international concerns; and my review of looming elections in Queensland, where the Liberal National Party has now chosen its candidate for the looming Currumbin by-election, who has not proved to the liking of retiring member Jann Stuckey.
BK and Confessions
Yes. It’s going to be interesting as to how that zealotry is going to be excused when the recession hits.
That’s a big blow to our economy.
Did Morrison do a presser this afternoon? I’ve missed everything.
I Hope Scott’s House Burns Down
Eamon Sandwith of The Chats
Strong but appropriate language
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WKiBepPGVD0
Morrison to self: “Phew, banning everyone from China will make people forget sports rorts”.
citizen @ #1339 Saturday, February 1st, 2020 – 5:49 pm
Until the actual cost to the Australian economy (particularly education) becomes apparent in Chinese capital flight during the coming nCoV-induced depression. In six months time, either Scummo from Marketing or Der Kartoffelführer will be begging for those that can afford it to return. Today will not have happened.
Don Key
Yeah…I heard it a fair bit in the late 1970s. It’s good that someone else remembers!
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/01/31/dnc-superdelegates-110083
The Clinton elites are scared.
Quite a deal of Orroral fire related air traffic past our suburb this afternoon including the air tanker that arrived today. At least I think it’s the air tanker – two engine jet with a pinkish underbelly and tail. I think PB has a resident aircraft identifier.
Pukka, it would be good if The Chats could do a version of I’m on Smoko with a verse dedicated to Scotty from Marketing and his Hawaii trip.
citizen
the attached link is flaky but when it is up and when the aircraft are being tracked you click on the aircraft and it tells you what sort of aircraft it is. The locations are close to real time. If you have had one fly over or near you, you could probably use the data to find out what sort it is:
https://bushfire.io/?location=12/-35.47828541592288/149.0995788574219/Satellite
I see that several of the spot fires jumped across the Murrumbidgee Valley, across the grasslands (currently very short because of the drought) and are burning in the Tinderry Range.
It would be excellent if these were put out.
“Yes, polls say 55 per cent of Americans approve of Trump’s performance on economics, according to Real Clear Politics. Some surveys — not all — show consumer confidence unusually high. But that’s hard to square with consumers spending less and seeing their after-inflation incomes grow less. When it’s time for consumers to show what they really think, they are pulling back.
Pundits — me included — thought relatively high stated consumer confidence would elect Hillary Clinton too. It turned out they weren’t that confident after all. The lesson: Watch what consumers do, not what they say”.
https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/us-recession-trump-economy-gdp-results-a9310056.html
guytaur
Oh good lord – half a dozen delegates, who don’t even have the courage to be named, toss around a proposal that even they don’t believe would get up, and that’s some kind of Clinton-driven conspiracy?
Does illustrate, however, that Sanders isn’t a ‘true’ Democrat – if he was, his members wouldn’t be worried about anything that happened on the floor.
Having outsider status has some benefits but it also has downsides (and I’m speaking as someone who deliberately stayed outside the factional system). People who reap the benefits of playing the virtuous outsider have to accept that they may be burned by insider games.
Democrat delegates have no responsibility to make life easy/easier for Sanders.
lizzie @ #1302 Saturday, February 1st, 2020 – 5:48 pm
Yes. It was all, ‘I’m Mr Efficient Response to the Coronavirus’.
Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren are Whole Foods candidates in a Macdonalds America.
poroti @ #1289 Saturday, February 1st, 2020 – 5:22 pm
Wasn’t the original proposition to pump the ‘Captured CO2’ into fissures in Fracked Gas Wells?
C@tmomma
You would be surprised how much the Maccas Munchers do care about the cost of medical care , their lack of medical care, the cost of education, the cost of endless wars ( hint the poor are the ones that keep dying in them) etc etc. Not for nothing did Trumpenstein riff on those in his pre prezzie days.
C@t
Just the usual gaslighting, then. Thanks 🙂
C@tmomma @ #1316 Saturday, February 1st, 2020 – 6:29 pm
Since the UK has a moratorium on fracking, I don’t see how that could be.
C@tmomma @ #1315 Saturday, February 1st, 2020 – 6:26 pm
Trump allegedly likes the same food as his supporters. Might partly explain why some people relate to him.
https://www.pastemagazine.com/articles/2019/01/here-are-a-bunch-of-pictures-of-donald-trump-eatin.html
This is a cracker!
https://twitter.com/i/status/1223221681298247680
Greensborough Growler
Food maybe but when it comes to drink nary a Bud or a Schlitz will ever cross teetotaller Trump’s lips.
Pink could be fire retardant residue.
“BOMBER 912” has just taken off from CBR for another run; “BIRDDOG 123” is on station waiting to lead them through:
https://tar1090.adsbexchange.com/?icao=a69072
The list of Special Task Operations call signs:
http://nafc.org.au/?page_id=271
(e.g. [VH-]NBN = “HELITAK 212”.)
poroti @ #1317 Saturday, February 1st, 2020 – 6:32 pm
And they already vote Democrat for the most part. Whereas the cold, hard, brutal reality that people like Rick Wilson and Steve Schmidt are alluding to is that those people who need to be converted from a vote for Trump in 2016 to a vote for the Democrat candidate in 2020 are not the people concerned about the cost of education, the cost of wars (hint, they join the Armed Forces to get a secure income for their family), or the cost or lack of medical care (hint, they’re more concerned about getting a job before concern about those issues).
I haven’t even heard much of a backlash against Trump suggesting the other day that he is looking at targeting Medicaid. Which is essential to a lot of the people that vote for him.
The Democrats can’t afford to put up a candidate that appeals to the Coasts and not the centre.
I also note that people who support Bernie Sanders here refuse to acknowledge the fact that the Republicans have a trolley full of dirt ready to unload on America in the campaign that would destroy him. You may not like that fact but Trump would be salivating at the prospect of facing Sanders.
Greensborough Growler
A gold star, a koala stamp and 3 thumbs up for that. Loved it 😀
C@tmomma @ #1315 Saturday, February 1st, 2020 – 6:26 pm
Americans have grown obese, lazy and ignorant under ‘McDonalds’ political rule, many are waking up to the idea that they should give Bernie a shot.
poroti @ #1322 Saturday, February 1st, 2020 – 6:43 pm
There are a lot of tea totallers in the US. I suppose the art of being politically popular with a variety of cohorts in the population is to have some characteristic that voters relate to.
poroti @ #1326 Saturday, February 1st, 2020 – 6:46 pm
Well, if you are going to be so negative about my contributions, then fork off!
C@tmomma
Of course they have not got a semi trailer full of dirt on Biden eh ? He will get incinerated .
Greensborough Growler
I was running off the “Joe 6 pack” stereotype of blue collar workers. In reality most of them would care as much as I do about his choice of drinks.
Bellwether @ #1327 Saturday, February 1st, 2020 – 6:47 pm
They already purchase their food from Whole Foods.
The rest vote for Trump and eat at Maccas, Carls Jr, Burger King, Taco Bell, Chick-Fil-A, etc
And that was quite a condescending comment from you.
poroti @ #1330 Saturday, February 1st, 2020 – 6:51 pm
That’s your only come back in order to keep supporting Sanders!?!
So, why was Trump trying to make up dirt about Biden then if he already had so much on him?
Okay, the aerial ballet is a bit difficult to follow – the ADSB signal is a bit patchy over the fireground. “BIRDDOG 123” is dropping in and out of coverage.
“BOMBER 912” has dropped below 5000 ft, so it’s about to start its run.
… and back to CBR it goes.
poroti @ #1331 Saturday, February 1st, 2020 – 6:55 pm
I posted a piece from the Independent earlier that basically contradicted the meme that Trump had delivered on the economy. MSM lock themselves in to stereotypes all the time. That’s why we are constantly surprised that alleged truths are not truths afterall. The discussion about”woke” on PB fits the same category. My favourite dislike atm is calling voters that don’t think the same as you as “Low information”. It’s all bullshit.
Micheal Moore on the 2016 election, predicting Trump will win and why.
https://michaelmoore.com/trumpwillwin/
C@tmomma @ #1332 Saturday, February 1st, 2020 – 6:56 pm
It’s about time you address the fact that support for Bernie Sanders is not a sign of weakness or naivety, I don’t know who you support but I would say if it’s Biden you need to wake up to yourself, he would be an unmitigated disaster.
Jonathon Pie ‘celebrates’ Brexit .
https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=3&v=bBq2kNse9l8&feature=emb_logo
It will be interesting when the first plane currently in the air from China lands at a Australian airport.
According to Morrison whether non citizens or non residents are allowed to remain will be at the discretion of the commissioner. How will this actually unfold at the airport will be very interesting. What criteria, if any, will be applied in these cases ? Will there be a blanket rejection or will border protection officers at the airport be able to “ pick and choose “ based on some yet to be determined dot point profile ? If you have a runny nose you go back ? If you are bright eyed and bushy tailed you can enter ?
Based on past performance by “ Dutton’s warriors “ it well could be a debacle.
Bellwether @ #1337 Saturday, February 1st, 2020 – 7:08 pm
Says some guy in the Canberra area of Australia. (I think I have that right).
Lol.
Well, let me disabuse you of your quaint notion (this is from an article by veteran political commentator for The New York Times, Gail Collins:
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/31/opinion/iowa-caucuses.html
Remember how Trump didn’t have a second thought about publicly abusing the disabled guy? I can just imaging what fun he will have with Bernie at his rallies.
Why Trump wants to run against Bernie.
https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2020/01/trump-bernie-sanders-socialism.html
Coming to a theatre near you…..
C@tmomma @ #1340 Saturday, February 1st, 2020 – 7:19 pm
You are such an abrasive character, so cocksure, and no I’m not a Canberran but an honest toiler living on the far south coast in the midst of bushfires and not really in the mood for listening to your close-minded crap.
Another dose of reality from Paul Krugman:
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/31/opinion/does-it-matter-who-the-democrats-choose.html
Bellwether @ #1343 Saturday, February 1st, 2020 – 7:25 pm
I’m the one with a closed mind? Ha ha.
And I was correct in so far as you live in the general region of the bushfires.
Oh, and they aren’t my ‘cocksure’ opinions, they are those of expert commentators, which you blithely just bat away like annoying flies.
Well this escalated quickly…
“Prime Minister Scott Morrison has announced unprecedented new control measures that will see all non-Australians travelling from mainland China barred entry at the border in an attempt to stop the spread of coronavirus.
The official advice is now that Australians “do not travel” to mainland China.
The tough new measures, announced on Saturday afternoon, come as the number of Australians confirmed to have contracted coronavirus rose to 12 on Saturday with three new cases across Victoria and South Australia.
Queensland Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk today called for all flights to be banned from China while Qantas said it would suspend services to mainland China.
At a press conference late this afternoon, Mr Morrison said all foreign travellers who had left or passed through mainland China 14 days before arriving in Australia will now be denied entry to the country.
That will particularly hit the many Chinese tourists and students who regularly visit Australia.
Australian citizens, permanent residents and their immediate family will be exempt from the strict measures, Mr Morrison announced.
He said there would be “advanced screening and reception arrangements” at major airports
and all Australians arriving from China will be told to “self isolate” for 14 days to ensure they are not affected. The measures will be reviewed in a fortnight.
Now this…
https://www.democracynow.org/2019/12/30/michael_moore_trump_2016_2020_prediction
This is the dilemma for me. Moore is quite correct. America is a far more “left wing” country than many people here give it credit for. The problem is voter turnout, voter suppression and a far from democratic process (electoral colleges etc).
Time and again, if you survey Americans you find majority support for sensible positions, like Medicare for all, like ending mass incarceration, like women’s reproductive rights.
And Michael is also right.. If Sanders can “excite the base” then he will get enough votes to win. Even allowing for the fact that the Democrats need a more than 50% majority in the popular vote. And btw, even in the rust belt states where Trump got over the line, I’m convinced that it is possible for Sanders to win – if it were a fair game.
On the other hand, its quite true that if Sanders gets to be Democrat candidate then the Republicans will throw a lot of shit at him. Does that make him unelectable against Trump? That’s a serious question and I don’t think saying that Americans are inherently bogans who eat Maccas really tells the whole story. There’s a lot of sensible, well informed Americans too (I’ve spent cumulatively over a year living in the place).
I’ve no doubt that shit thrown at Sanders can hurt him. On the other hand the wild card is whether the likes of Bloomberg will throw a lot of money at the Democrats despite Sanders being the candidate. I think that’s entirely possible. I also beg to differ as to whether the dirt flung at Sanders will impress those likely to vote for him. Again, this boils down to who turns out to vote.
I didn’t dislike Hilary. But its also clear that she wasn’t that inspiring. She did win the popular vote. But in key states her would-be voters didn’t. Yes part of that is deliberate targeting by the likes of Cambridge Analytica. But part of that is inherently that a lot of people didn’t like her policies and didn’t feel personally engaged.
Sanders has a lot to be said for him in terms of reflecting the real attitudes of “working class” Americans who are, as Moore says, not angry old white men. They are people who can be energised and can turn out to vote.
I want the Democrats to win. If that means having Biden so be it. But unlike some here I’m not absolutely persuaded by the argument that Sanders cannot win purely because of the Republicans being evil. I think the Republicans are going to be evil and dirty no matter who is the Democrat candidate. And even if its Biden, the Republicans are going to run a repeat of “crooked Hilary”.
C@t
How “open minded” were you when it came to other Bludgers suggesting Hilary was a less than optimal candidate ? Bonus marks if you include vs Obama 😆
And just for the record, I’d prefer someone who is younger and even more left wing than Sanders.
Finally:
I just want the scales that have ‘Bernie’ written on them, to fall off people’s eyes. That’s all. Don’t give Trump another 4 years if Bernie doesn’t win the Democrat nomination by taking your bat and ball and going home.