Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor

A crash in Scott Morrison’s standing finds Labor edging ahead on voting intention, and Anthony Albanese taking the lead on preferred prime minister.

The first Newspoll for the year, and the third under the new YouGov online polling regime, finds Labor opening up a 51-49 lead, after they trailed 52-48 in the poll in early December. On the primary vote, the Coalition is down two to 40%, Labor up three to 36%, the Greens up one to 12% and One Nation down one to 4%. Perhaps more remarkably, Scott Morrison now trails Anthony Albanese as preferred prime minister by 43-39, after leading him 48-34 in the previous poll. The damage on Morrison’s personal ratings amounts to an eight point drop on approval to 37% and an eleven point rise on disapproval to 59%. Conversely, Albanese is up six on approval to 46% and down four on disapproval to 37%. The Australian’s report is here; the poll was conducted from Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1505.

UPDATE (Essential Research): The Guardian has numbers from the first Essential Research poll of the year, but they disappointingly offer nothing on voting intention. What they do provide is corroboration for Newspoll’s finding that Anthony Albanese has taken the lead over Scott Morrison as preferred prime minister, in this case at 39-36, which compares with a 44-28 lead to Morrison when Essential last asked the question in early November. We are told that Scott Morrison is up nine on disapproval to 52% and that Anthony Albanese is up four on approval to 43% – their respective approval and disapproval ratings will have to wait for the full Essential report, which will presumably be with us later today or tomorrow. UPDATE: Morrison is down five on approval to 40%, Albanese is up two on disapproval to 30%. Full report here.

Despite everything, the poll finds 32% approving of Morrison’s handling of the bushfire crisis, which may be related to the fact that his approval rating was down only three among Coalition voters. The Guardian tells us only that 36% strongly disapproved of Morrison’s performance, to which the less strong measure of disapproval will need to be added to produce an equivalent figure for the 32% approval. Fifty-two per cent disagreed that Australia had always had bushfires like those just experienced, and 78% believe the government had been unprepared for them. Efforts to shift blame to the states do not appear to have borne fruit: Gladys Berejiklian’s handling of the bushfires scored 55% approval among New South Wales respondents, while Daniel Andrews was on 58% (these numbers would have come from small sub-samples of around 300 to 400 respondents).

The poll also offers a timely addition to the pollster’s leaders attributes series. The findings for the various attributes in this serious invariably move en bloc with the leaders’ general standing, and Morrison is accordingly down across the board. However, a clear standout is his collapse from 51% to 32% for “good in a crisis”, on which he was up 10% the last time the question was posed in October. Other unfavourable movements related in The Guardian range from a six-point increase in “out of touch with ordinary Australians“ to 62% to a 12 point drop on “visionary” to 30%.

More on all this when the full report is published. The poll was conducted online from Tuesday to Sunday from a sample of 1081.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,417 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor”

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  4. lizzie

    I think Labor should have a policy to encourage/subsidise sprinkler system in high risk areas. Make it the norm.

    Labor should not leave it to the election.

  5. C@t, interesting that those carrots thrown from a helicopter all landed in one heap.

    This is just a distraction. Pulling on the peeps heart strings. It is easy to distract Peeps to be concerned about an individual animal rather than have them think about the damage to the whole species and the habitat that they live in.

  7. It’s dawning on people that The Greens can’t really DO anything. Fine sentiments won’t change a thing. And The Greens can stop begging for Labor’s help. They are fair weather friends.

    ________________________________

    Apart from individual action regarding lifestyle (such as use of renewable power, etc) the only people who can do anything are those in power. At the federal level, that means the Coalition government.

    Not the Greens. Not Labor. The Greens market themselves as the party that can push Labor (when Labor is in power) into a more aggressive stance on climate change. Their methodology is to demand Labor produce a ‘policy’ asap. Their only purpose in doing so is so they can attack Labor for not doing enough and expose Labor to Coalition attacks for doing too much.

    And no matter how much more aggressive a Labor climate policy is, no Green – here or in the real world – will say ‘we think they should go further, but Labor’s policy is a big advance on the Coalition’s’. No, they will just say ‘not enough – if it’s not what we think it should happen it’s as bad as or even worse than the Coalition’s’.

    At the end of the day, nature has done much more to effectively advance the argument for climate action than any political party.

  9. Exactly.SmoKo’s latest spin about being ‘open’ to further action on climate is pure marketing.We don’t need more time to think, or finely calibrate, or consider options.We know what we need to do.We need to quit coal.Anything less, PM, is a death sentence. pic.twitter.com/PB8UOgQVeN— Adam Bandt (@AdamBandt) January 12, 2020

  10. It’s dawning on people that The Greens can’t really DO anything. Fine sentiments won’t change a thing. And The Greens can stop begging for Labor’s help. They are fair weather friends?

    If they all voted ALP, we would have change of government!.
    E.O.S

  12. Guytaur
    “PRIME MINISTER: “What I’m saying is I’m not going to put someone’s job at risk, a region’s, town’s future at risk.” https://twitter.com/WrittenOnWater/status/1216514100760416257/photo/1

    Thanks. The farcical nature of this lie can be demonstrated by looking at the numbers too. There are 38,000 jobs in coal mining and power. There are >300,000 jobs in agriculture. That does not include value adding for things like wine and processed food jobs. There are >900,000 jobs in tourism, mostly in retail, cafes and recreation. See https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/rp/rp1718/Quick_Guides/EmployIndustry

    So there are roughly 31 other jobs at risk for every one coal mining or power job being protected. And then there are all the potential new jobs in renewable energy being blocked by protecting coal.

    The governments policy on coal HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH JOBS. It is about wealth and privilege for the owners of coal assets.

  14. TPOF

    The Greens market themselves as the party that can push Labor (when Labor is in power) into a more aggressive stance on climate change. Their methodology is to demand Labor produce a ‘policy’ asap. Their only purpose in doing so is so they can attack Labor for not doing enough and expose Labor to Coalition attacks for doing too much.
    …At the end of the day, nature has done much more to effectively advance the argument for climate action than any political party.

    I remember when RdN became leader, he was sure that Greens would slowly overcome Labor and vowed to work hard to achieve that.

  15. Ah Poorlene , how does so much “common sense” fit inside such a small brain. A couple of gems from her.
    Predictions of climate change ?

    “they can’t even get my weather right and tell me it is going to rain for the next week.I think it’s a load of BS

    Now what is causing the change in climate ?

    “The climate is changing pure to nature itself and our relation to the sun,”

  16. a r,

    The other way to look at it is that both Greens and Labor increased their previous PV by exactly the same percentage:

    ALP: 33 * 1.091 = 36
    GRN: 11 * 1.091 = 12

  18. Socrates @ #360 Monday, January 13th, 2020 – 12:47 pm

    …. Somebody needs to ask Scomo if his office or the Liberal Party has been using social media in recent weeks to advance suggestions that arsonists or “greenies” were the cause of the fires, and not climate change? Can Scomo guarantee that the Liberal – Murdoch government is not running such a campaign? Does Scomo reject Barnaby’s claims that this is all due to greenies? (Since this was disproven by the NSW RFS chief while standing next to Gladys Berejiklian).
    Labor should repeat those questions until they are answered, or the Prime Misleader can be seen to avoid them.

    Assuming the LNP doesnt disallow some form of reasonable parliament Q Time… the ALP attack line will be interesting to see if they have any dirt on the bots or on Morrisons possible side trips during his hols.

  19. Socrates

    The whole idea of “we won’t engage in reckless action” is Orwellian to the extreme.

    So why isn’t Labor out there in the shopping malls telling people all the good things that will come and dispelling the myth that action equals harm.

  20. Oh and btw. To the Greens here.

    You should also be at the shopping malls educating the low information voters.

    Out there in the outer metro areas where ignorance is at its worst.

  21. @Cat,

    The “Just go in ask at a Centrelink?”

    The Coalition have done a super job of making the Physical Centrelink Office (and medicare offices) a little hard to spot anywhere!!

  23. Pauline is actually right..It IS about out relation to the Sun – it is cooking us because of our reliance on coal!!! Not sure that’s what she meant.

  24. Danama Papers @ #361 Monday, January 13th, 2020 – 1:19 pm

    C@tmomma @ #337 Monday, January 13th, 2020 – 9:45 am

    Maybe a quick phone call to them to ascertain the timeline for your area.

    Is there any such thing as a “quick” phone call to Centrelink? From what I hear it may take hours, possibly days to actually get to speak to someone.

    I am the nominated contact liaison person for five Centrelink clients. Calls to Centrelink phones are almost never answered within 30 minutes. Often, after waiting, say, 45 minutes, the call simply drops to an engaged tone. The first responders to calls are call centre contractors, who are supposed to redirect the call to an appropriate officer. They commonly have no relevant knowledge. After redirection another wait ensues.

    Whenever I need to interact with Centrelink, I now go to their office in The Entrance, with a book of cryptic crosswords, and wait in line, first to be recorded as waiting, and then to be seen. Around 20 percent of the available open plan desks are occupied by service staff.

    Five years ago, Centrelink staff were, on the whole, helpful. In my experience they are now almost all disrespectful, arrogant, rude and dismissive. I try to be patient, tenacious, and meticulous in recording all interactions, with a reference number. I have had several wins.

  26. I am the nominated contact liaison person for five Centrelink clients. Calls to Centrelink phones are almost never answered within 30 minutes. Often, after waiting, say, 45 minutes, the call simply drops to an engaged tone. The first responders to calls are call centre contractors, who are supposed to redirect the call to an appropriate officer. They commonly have no relevant knowledge. After redirection another wait ensues.

    Whenever I need to interact with Centrelink, I now go to their office in The Entrance, with a book of cryptic crosswords, and wait in line, first to be recorded as waiting, and then to be seen. Around 20 percent of the available open plan desks are occupied by service staff.

    Five years ago, Centrelink staff were, on the whole, helpful. In my experience they are now almost all disrespectful, arrogant, rude and dismissive. I try to be patient, tenacious, and meticulous in recording all interactions, with a reference number. I have had several wins.
    ____________________________________

    this will go down a treat with the influx of new clients coming as a result of this disastrous and tragic summer.

  27. Centrewank deliberately dont want to help people and I think the staff are told to be that way.The Liberals hate any form of welfare unless it applies to the rich.

  29. Cud Chewer says:
    Monday, January 13, 2020 at 1:41 pm
    Oh and btw. To the Greens here.
    You should also be at the shopping malls educating the low information voters.
    Out there in the outer metro areas where ignorance is at its worst.

    I’ve had ALP door knocking here…..fed and state……..Libs in t-shirts delivering pamphlets but never anyone from the Greens…..never ever.
    My take is they don’t give a toss about the lower house seats in the suburbs they just want the senate votes.
    They fail to realise is that if their vote drops even further in the suburbs because of incorrectly being blamed for the crisis we are now in they lose those votes and those senate seats.

  30. Sonar – it’s because outer suburban electorates are big and it’s a bugger to get around the whole of them on your bicycle.

  31. Socrates @ #373 Monday, January 13th, 2020 – 1:30 pm

    The governments policy on coal HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH JOBS. It is about wealth and privilege for the owners of coal assets.

    And, of course, Labor’s policy on coal has nothing to do with jobs either, despite the crap you hear spouted here. It is also about wealth and privilege for the owners of coal assets.

  32. ‘a r says:
    Monday, January 13, 2020 at 1:11 pm

    Boerwar @ #351 Monday, January 13th, 2020 – 12:06 pm

    The worst ever drought. The worst ever bushfires. The hottest ever temperature. The driest ever year. A biodiversity massacre. The Extinction Rebellion astroturfing. The Climate Revolt astroturfing. The Bushfire Protest astroturfing. The Thunberg charisma. Australia’s role in the COP 25 disaster. A sleazebag from marketing running Australia. A Labor Party that has no emissions policy.

    It is difficult to envisage a more favorable set of external circumstances for the Greens.

    And, all that for…. +1%!

    Or you could flip that around quite easily, and say that with Morrison’s basically unchecked propaganda blaming the Greens for the worst ever bushfires it’s difficult to envisage a more unfavorable set of circumstances for the Greens.

    And despire that, +1%!

    Sleazy from Marketing’s cred is as dead as a doornail. Hanging your hopes on that shows that you are truly, truly desperate.

    I suggest you stop denying political reality.

    I suggest you get rid of the complete suite of policies that target rural and regional electorates, that you stop bagging Labor and Alabanese, that you stop hanging around with protestors as if thety were the main game in town, and that you get yourself a real leader.

  34. PvO on the latest Newspoll and Morrison’s crash in personal ratings.

    The collapse in Morrison’s personal ratings is unsurprising in the wake of how badly he handled the bushfires crisis: jetting off to Hawaii on a prearranged family holiday even though a state of emergency had been declared in his home state.

    We got an early indication of what the polls might show when Morrison eventually visited fire ravaged communities, as locals abused him and refused to shake his hand. The PM’s awkward response, forcing handshakes with shattered locals who wanted to be left alone was cringe-worthy. Worse still was the optics of Morrison walking away when one local pleaded for help.

    It was the actions of someone who has lived his entire life inside the bubble — working in party political and government appointed jobs, not in the communities he now seeks to represent.

    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/commentary/newspoll-pm-scott-morrison-needs-to-learn-from-his-mistakes-on-bushfires/news-story/fe85de4258c4d716b2a265fb6a444f31

  35. It really is amusing. The Greens are blaming being blamed for being arsonists as the reason for the static results.

    The peeps who seriously believe that the Greens would go around setting Australia on fire would be around 1% of the extreme nutbag population. None of them would vote Greens under any circumstances at all.

    The Greens profess to hate denialism… in others.

  36. All this negging directed at the Greens party must bring a smile to the coal lobbyists faces.

    The negging has certainly helped entrench parliamentary control for the ‘friends of coal’.

    Our trashed economy and environment thanks you.

  37. sonar I don’t mean regular door knocking. I mean sitting down at a table at a shopping center inviting conversations on a short list of topics – including future jobs and the benefits of cheap energy.

  38. Bernard Keane in today’s Crikey on responsibility for Australia’s do-nothing approach to AGW and where we are today with public debate and public policy.

    There’s plenty of blood on the hands of News Corp executives and successive editors of outlets like The Australian, the Telegraph and, now, Sky News. Years of climate denialism targeted at both sides of politics — witness the recent smearing of NSW Liberal Matt Kean for daring to talk of bolder climate action — has wrecked evidence-based policymaking; the malignant nature of News Corp has been displayed in recent days in an absurd campaign to blame arsonists for the catastrophe.

    But much of the non-Murdoch media has also helped normalise a brazen climate denialism that would be regarded as unhinged even in other countries. Failing to address the blatant lies of the Coalition campaign against the Gillard government’s carbon price; urging voters to support Tony Abbott; and political journalists fixating on race-calling and political tactics while ignoring policy have all made life comfortable and relaxed for denialists.

    In particular, many journalists have unthinkingly absorbed the favoured climate framing of denialists and fossil fuel companies — that we can have emissions abatement or economic growth and jobs, but not both. The tens of billions in damage and lost growth from the bushfires are a frightening demolition of that myth — and a stark rejoinder to the journalists, Murdoch and non-Murdoch alike, who literally screamed at Bill Shorten during last year’s election campaign to explain the economic costs of his (woefully inadequate) climate policies.

  39. Trump’s White House tweets about the first snow of 2020 — except it wasn’t snowing

    President Donald Trump attacks the media and his political opponents for “fake news,” but when it comes to the weather, the president doesn’t have the best track record.

    In a tweet from his White House Sunday, a photo of digitally imposed snow appears to fall over the White House.

    As publisher and podcaster Liz Gumbinner pointed out, it’s 53 degrees and mostly clear in Washington, D.C.

    It isn’t the first time Trump and his team have struggled to get weather forecast correct. The White House clamored together a briefing with a map where Trump had altered an official NOAA weather map with a sharpie to show the storm hitting Alabama. …. It became mockingly known as SharpieGate.

    You can see other responses to the White House tweet below:

    It is not snowing in DC right now (hit 69 degrees earlier).
    The White House lies about important stuff. It lies about stupid stuff. It just lies, lies, lies.
    Just when you think things can’t get more bat-sh*t crazy…alas
    That’s not snow. It Mitch McConnell flinging bags of cocaine all over the District

    https://www.rawstory.com/2020/01/trumps-white-house-tweets-about-the-first-snow-of-2020-except-it-wasnt-snowing/

  40. BTW if we want to talk about educating people, I have found it surprising even among well educated people how few have been formally taught the science behind climate change. Most people read other people’s opinions about the science, whether for or against. Few actually read the science, which is complex unless you have studied at least high school level physics and chemistry.

    To that end I saw a climate change documentary on Netflix recently called Decoding the Weather machine. It explains a history of the science of climate change from the 19th century to the present day. Along the way it proves the case with simple physical facts and demonstrations that are indisputable. I know most opinions are entrenched now anyway, but for anyone still looking for a clear explanation of the actual science, I recommend it.
    https://www.netflix.com/au/title/81121177

  42. c@tmomma, not to upset you unduly but at least in Victoria when they try to reduce feral numbers in state and national parks they normally air drop carrot chunks laced with 1080 poison. I hope what little wildlife is left in the burnt areas don’t get a taste for the carrots.

  44. Steve Davis

    No relation Steve, I’m just a bloke from the bush name Bill (or William for long). Bushfire Bill seems to be a nice bloke though

  45. Boerwar seems to be saying that as the Greens – and not Labor – are the party who have always stood for real action on climate change, then these bushfires should have seen a great increase in their primary support.

  46. ‘Socrates says:
    Monday, January 13, 2020 at 2:38 pm

    BTW if we want to talk about educating people, I have found it surprising even among well educated people how few have been formally taught the science behind climate change.’

    It is quite staggering how very, very few people have even the most basic understanding of how greenhouse gases work.

  47. Cud Chewer says:
    Monday, January 13, 2020 at 2:24 pm
    sonar I don’t mean regular door knocking. I mean sitting down at a table at a shopping center inviting conversations on a short list of topics – including future jobs and the benefits of cheap energy.

    I agree with you but it’s the same thing to me…..door knocking or shopping centres……….talking to people face to face. The Greens don’t do it in the outer suburbs.

  48. c@tmomma, not to upset you unduly but at least in Victoria when they try to reduce feral numbers in state and national parks they normally air drop carrot chunks laced with 1080 poison. I hope what little wildlife is left in the burnt areas don’t get a taste for the carrots.

    1080 is not supposed to kill native wildlife. They have adapted to it as it is found in their natural environment. Foxes, Pigs, wild dogs… not so much.

  49. @martini henry says:
    Monday, January 13, 2020 at 2:43 pm
    sonar and cud, can you get a low fat soy latte in the outer suburbs?

    lol…….You bet…..great eat in or take away cafe 500m from home….lol….local firies are there all the time.

  50. ‘Lovey says:
    Monday, January 13, 2020 at 2:45 pm

    Boerwar seems to be saying that as the Greens – and not Labor – are the party who have always stood for real action on climate change, then these bushfires should have seen a great increase in their primary support.’

    I don’t seem to be saying anything of the sort.

    What I am saying is that there has never been a more propitious moment for the Greens to make major electoral gains. If ever the Greens were going to pick up 10% or 20% of the vote, now was the time.

    But they are not picking them up. They are drifting around in polling noise.

    If the Greens can’t make massive step change gains under the current set of external circumstances then the Greens ought to do a root and branch review of their policies, their political priorities. their processes, their marketing, their organization, and their leadership.

    They won’t, IMHO. For a supposedly radical political organization the Greens are, deeply set in their ways, and are deeply change-resistant.

    Their core philosophy is that everything and everybody other than the Greens should change.

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