The first Newspoll for the year, and the third under the new YouGov online polling regime, finds Labor opening up a 51-49 lead, after they trailed 52-48 in the poll in early December. On the primary vote, the Coalition is down two to 40%, Labor up three to 36%, the Greens up one to 12% and One Nation down one to 4%. Perhaps more remarkably, Scott Morrison now trails Anthony Albanese as preferred prime minister by 43-39, after leading him 48-34 in the previous poll. The damage on Morrison’s personal ratings amounts to an eight point drop on approval to 37% and an eleven point rise on disapproval to 59%. Conversely, Albanese is up six on approval to 46% and down four on disapproval to 37%. The Australian’s report is here; the poll was conducted from Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1505.
UPDATE (Essential Research): The Guardian has numbers from the first Essential Research poll of the year, but they disappointingly offer nothing on voting intention. What they do provide is corroboration for Newspoll’s finding that Anthony Albanese has taken the lead over Scott Morrison as preferred prime minister, in this case at 39-36, which compares with a 44-28 lead to Morrison when Essential last asked the question in early November. We are told that Scott Morrison is up nine on disapproval to 52% and that Anthony Albanese is up four on approval to 43% – their respective approval and disapproval ratings will have to wait for the full Essential report, which will presumably be with us later today or tomorrow. UPDATE: Morrison is down five on approval to 40%, Albanese is up two on disapproval to 30%. Full report here.
Despite everything, the poll finds 32% approving of Morrison’s handling of the bushfire crisis, which may be related to the fact that his approval rating was down only three among Coalition voters. The Guardian tells us only that 36% strongly disapproved of Morrison’s performance, to which the less strong measure of disapproval will need to be added to produce an equivalent figure for the 32% approval. Fifty-two per cent disagreed that Australia had always had bushfires like those just experienced, and 78% believe the government had been unprepared for them. Efforts to shift blame to the states do not appear to have borne fruit: Gladys Berejiklian’s handling of the bushfires scored 55% approval among New South Wales respondents, while Daniel Andrews was on 58% (these numbers would have come from small sub-samples of around 300 to 400 respondents).
The poll also offers a timely addition to the pollster’s leaders attributes series. The findings for the various attributes in this serious invariably move en bloc with the leaders’ general standing, and Morrison is accordingly down across the board. However, a clear standout is his collapse from 51% to 32% for “good in a crisis”, on which he was up 10% the last time the question was posed in October. Other unfavourable movements related in The Guardian range from a six-point increase in “out of touch with ordinary Australians“ to 62% to a 12 point drop on “visionary” to 30%.
More on all this when the full report is published. The poll was conducted online from Tuesday to Sunday from a sample of 1081.
I see that Keane of The Crikey is still Killing Bill and Killing Labor.
All this negging directed at the Greens party must bring a smile to the coal lobbyists faces.
_________________________________
To the extent that it happens in the real world it would worry them sick. The biggest weapon they have is to suggest that a vote for Labor is a vote for the Greens.
BoerWar,
ALP HOR Swing:
2007: +5.25%
2010: -5.40%
2013: – 4.61%
2016: + 1.35%
2019: -1.39%
ALP Swing 2004 -> 2019: -4.77%
GRN HOR Swing:
2007: +1.38%
2010: +3.97%
2013: -3.11%
2016: +1.58%
2019: +0.17%
GRN Swing 2004 -> 2019 +3.99%
Thought you might enjoy this BISON.
I see that Keane of The Crikey is still Killing Bill and Killing Labor.
________________________
So who reads Crikey?
Boerwar @ #411 Monday, January 13th, 2020 – 11:55 am
Not really. He has clearly stated that our politicians (of all stripes not just Labor or the coalition) are to blame for the absence of effective and sustained action to reduce our GHGEs.
Personally, his column simply reinforces my view that there is no point having Greens in the federal parliament. We’ve had nearly 30 years of Greens MPs in federal parliament, and in that time the environment has gone backwards.
bakunin
What I am saying is that there has never been a more propitious moment for the Greens to make major electoral gains. If ever the Greens were going to pick up 10% or 20% of the vote, now was the time.
But they are not picking them up. They are drifting around well inside the MOE.
IMO, if the Greens can’t make massive step change gains under the current set of external circumstances then the Greens ought to do a root and branch review of their policies, their political priorities. their processes, their marketing, their organization, and their leadership.
There is the old saw about madness being about doing the same thing again and expecting a different result.
I acknowledge that my thesis here is mostly a matter of judgement.
It seems to me that as the environment collapses around our ears people could be expected to turn to the Party that has built its cred around the environment. On the current polling, that is not happening. If you, personally, are satisfied that the Greens, under Di Natale’s leadership, are doing as well as they ought to, all things considered, that is your call.
Confessions
Keane mentions two names for a bit of a slagging – Murdoch and Shorten.
The chap can’t help himself.
Does anyone have a demographic break down of the greens voters.
I live in Hobart and I have friends who’s parents were at the Franklin Dam protests with Bob, But Idon’t know any rusted on greenies at work who are middle aged now, ie 30-40 I know a few early and late 20 year olds who vote green but they aren’t the activist types.
I wonder if the greens have a bimodal age distribution that is either really young or really old.
I’d also like to see that demographic breakdown by highest education attained. I hypothesize that most greens are very educated these days, whereas in the past it may have been a more egalitarian organization because of it’s sole focus on the land rather than other social issues. This may be what is keeping numbers down.
Anyway, I think it’d be smart for some fired up activists in each state to start staking out cabinet members and whenever they do a press conferences they should just yell questions about climate change at the government.
Such as, “Are you proud you voted to repeal the carbon tax”
I think if there was s sustained campaign of this sort of type of ambush activism like when Gladys Berejiklian was ambushed about the kids being strip searched by the cops it would really cut through.
For a reminder:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u21ObybqY3g
Tactics like this would help with the image of the government being scared of the debate and the issues. And it’d be damning to phrase every question along the lines of :
Are you proud of this bullshit statement about the climate, etc.
I keep hearing the LNP say there’ll be time to debate these issue come winter, but i have a feeling we’re going to be talking about religious discrimination.
Actually, im really hoping that bill makes it’s way to the top of the agenda come Feb, that’ll really show the punters Smoko’s tin ear.
Still 109 fires burning in NSW.
Socrates @1:30PM.
”The governments policy on coal HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH JOBS. It is about wealth and privilege for the owners of coal assets.”
Compare and contrast the Government’s attitude to manufacturing as it was being squeezed out of Australia, for example automobile manufacturing. No care for jobs there.
It’s not about jobs, workers or communities. It’s about protecting the profits of extractive industry oligarchs.
Boerwar:
Keane says in all those MPs to blame over the years for our inaction on AGW, only the Gillard govt and Bill Shorten can avoid blame. That is not bagging in my view.
Confessions @ #416 Monday, January 13th, 2020 – 2:01 pm
Eh, it’s equally valid to say any of:
We’ve had 30 years of Liberal MPs in federal parliament, and in that time the environment has gone backwards.
We’ve had 30 years of National MPs in federal parliament, and in that time the environment has gone backwards.
We’ve had 30 years of Labor MPs in federal parliament, and in that time the environment has gone backwards.
We’ve had 30 years of the Hubble Telescope (it’s true, look it up), and in that time the environment has gone backwards.
We’ve had nearly 30 years of Linux (also true), and in that time the environment has gone backwards.
Clearly then if we care about the environment we must eliminate federal parliament, space telescopes, and copyleft operating-systems.
Or “something something correlation does not imply causation”.
ar
The environment is the core priority of the Greens.
The Greens have hoovered up the environment vote and parked it where it can little or no good.
Clearly, the Greens are not achieving their number one priority.
The Liberals and Labor have more than one priority and judging them on the Greens core priority is a bit like judging like with unlike.
The Greens have some fundamental choices to make.
But those choices must first be made on the basis of acknowledging reality: that the Greens have failed the environment for 30 years.
ar:
What Boerwar said.
I see the sane the Greens are not evil incarnate view is not acceptable to BW for yet another day.
guytaur @ #426 Monday, January 13th, 2020 – 12:21 pm
English version please.
Confessions
Focus on the Greens. Do the work of the LNP.
It’s so bad a journalist pointing out the timeline of events triggers Labor partisans like Pavlovian dogs.
I’ve written about Newspoll for The Conversation, but most of the article is about the US, as I wasn’t expecting Newspoll. Sanders leads in Iowa with 20%, but Biden is well ahead nationally, helped by solid black support. The US jobs situation is still good, but wages growth dropped to 2.9% annually – the lowest since July 2018. Trump’s ratings have fallen back since a mid-Dec surge, probably owing to the Iran conflict.
https://theconversation.com/morrisons-approval-ratings-crash-over-bushfires-in-first-2020-newspoll-sanders-has-narrow-iowa-lead-129774
And ICYMI, I wrote on my personal website about the Spanish left-wing govt winning the crucial investiture vote by just two votes, 167 to 165. Also covered: the left won the Croatian presidency, a conservative/green govt was formed in Austria, and Israeli PM Netanyahu easily won a primary for leadership of his Likud party.
http://adrianbeaumont.net/left-wins-spanish-confidence-vote-and-croatian-presidency-austria-forms-conservative-green-government/
Boerwar says:
Monday, January 13, 2020 at 3:16 pm
ar
The environment is the core priority of the Greens.
So they like to say. The reality is they shore up the ranks of a few disaffected Labor-positive voters by bashing the shit out of Labor whenever and wherever they can. The G’s are not an environmental party. They are an anti-Labor party. Their MPs and officials profit from inaction, malice, contumely and division…which is what they aim to achieve at all times.
By positioning themselves to the left of the Labor party, the Greens have no influence over the Coalition. The Coalition can and do ignore the Greens’ concerns for this reason. The former Australian Democrats had more influence from the Centre.
blog watch 13/1/2020 3.28pm
Removed https://thenewdaily.com.au/ and https://independentaustralia.net/ BK looks at them.
ABUL RIZVI.-Where have Dutton and Pezzullo been hiding
The culpability of Dutton and Pezzullo for the bushfire crisis
MICHAEL KEATING. Dwelling construction is still falling despite record low interest rates.
Monetary policy has lifted the prices of the most expensive dwellings, but this impact is yet to flow through to the rest of the housing market. This experience reinforces doubts about the effectiveness of monetary policy when inflation and therefore interest rates are very low.
PAUL COLLINS. A New Era of Fire Part 2
Never before have we experienced fires like the present. They challenge us to re-assess our whole approach to living in Australia. With global warming a reality, we now face some pretty stark options.
KEN HENRY.-In these dreadful times,spare a thought for the wombat.
The iconic wombat has faced numerous challenges since white settlement of the Australian continent. And the events of recent months have elevated several threats.
MELISSA PARKE.-“Support for Palestinian rights is not anti-Semitic” (The West Australian 8.1.2020)
I had but dipped my toes back into federal politics via a bid for Julie Bishop’s former seat of Curtin when the campaign was over.
CAMERON LECKIE. The Australian Strategic Policy Institute is mired in the past.
The latest fearmongering by ASPI on the military threat posed by the Russia – China partnership is not helpful to either our future security or prosperity.
JOHN TAN. About Hegemony, Leadership ….. and Assange?
There has been one global hegemon since WWII, a commander with enough soft and hard power to make all the rules that matter, and to enforce them
MICHAEL KEANE A Digital Civilization: China Reimagined
In the Chinese political lexicon being civilized means ‘fitting in’ with the national plan, accepting the party-state’s directives and guidance, and obeying laws. This ‘harmonious society’ model, represents a collective response to uneven social development.
https://johnmenadue.com/
Sandpit
A new sandpit for long side discussions, conspiracy theories, idees fixes and so on.
monday message board
Post comments on any topic. Civil discussion and no coarse language please.
https://johnquiggin.com/
Smoke and the city
Daniel Sleiman, I wasn’t prepared for what happened in Canberra this past month. The effects of bush fires and by extension climate change was always an intangible notion, something I understood but did not directly experience.
https://www.eurekastreet.com.au/article/smoke-and-the-city
Memo to Scott Morrison
We also note that you just had to go on holiday outside Australia. I guess that is because you couldn’t find anywhere in Australia that wasn’t either on fire.
Incendiary extinctions: Australian fires and the species effect
Australian governments, across colours and persuasions, have found managing the environment a problematic, and inconvenient affair.
https://www.onlineopinion.com.au/
Australian flags at half mast tomorrow to mark the death of Sultan Qaboos bin Said Al Said
Can you help Queensland Police ID him?
Singapore lends us 2 CH-47 Chinook heavy-lift helicopters to help bushfire efforts, well done. Can anyone point to Indonesia’s contribution?
Always with the negative.
Prince Harry and Meghan in bad company owing favours to Clinton associates
Julie Bishop’s deal with Frank Giustra/Clinton Foundation! In Indonesia! What could go wrong?
Well if you get through the Of all the brain-dead outright stupid and unnecessary deals I’ve encountered I think he is wanking on about $500,000. If you can work it all out and why it is an issue your a better person than I. The year 2016
New Foreign Affairs Minister Julie Bishop, primed to take on the world
The year 2013.
Taal volcano eruption in The Philippines just 60 kilometres from Manila – thousands evacuated
etc. and so on.
https://www.michaelsmithnews.com/
Where’s Loy Yang A unit 2?
The ongoing (second) outage at Loy Yang A unit 2 is a timely reminder of the need to progress the 2 rule change proposals submitted by ERM Power with respect to MT PASA data duration, and granularity.
http://www.wattclarity.com.au/
On Facebook Greta looks 16, but secretly identifies as two grown men
The source is https://www.wired.com/story/facebook-bug-page-admins-edit-history-doxxing/ .
http://joannenova.com.au/
Scott Morrison says the government’s climate change policies would “evolve” without putting people’s jobs at risk
Scott Morrison has rejected the need to set a more ambitious 2030 emissions reduction target in the wake of Australia’s bushfire crisis but left open the possibility of dropping the contentious use of Kyoto carryover credits if they are not needed.
Help me close down Australia’s illegal kangaroo courts
The evil system of campus kangaroo courts was dealt a mighty blow. For years now, many Australian universities have had secret committees investigating and adjudicating rape. In a landmark Brisbane Supreme Court decision last November these were declared illegal. And then Education Minister Dan Tehan instructed the university regulator, TEQSA, that universities should leave these crimes to the criminal courts.
Wealth rise the fastest in two years
Australian households will begin the new decade with surging levels of wealth as rebounding property prices and a buoyant sharemarket drive the fastest rise in prosperity in almost two years.
Good For You, Craig Kelly
Kelly comes out in a combative interview with ITV talking head Piers Morgan and (a) defends the PM regarding his vacation, (b) points out that the bushfires have nothing to do with climate change and (c) that in terms of emissions reductions we are doing more than most countries.
http://australian-politics.blogspot.com/
Added to list of blogs checked.
Economics and politic are bed fellows
The misplaced objective of the government of delivering a surplus, come hell or high water, has gone up in smoke
https://thekouk.com/blog.html
Bill Mitchell is a Professor in Economics and Director of the Centre of Full Employment and Equity (CofFEE), at the University of Newcastle, NSW, Australia.
US Labour Market – not yet at full employment despite low unemployment
On January 10, 2020, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released their latest labour market data – Employment Situation Summary – January 2019 – which reveals a labour market that that is still adding jobs, albeit at a slower rate than it was last year.
http://bilbo.economicoutlook.net/blog/
Polls
Newspoll Roasts Morrison / 2019 Polling Year In Review
Newspoll has come out of hiding early this year, and that warrants a quick post about the unusual nature and results of this week’s early Newspoll, to which I am also attaching a belated annual roundup for 2019.
http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/
I see Boerwar, confessions and briefly are on a unity ticket working to entrench the ‘friends of coal’ cartel in our parliament.
This cartel is responsible for the destruction of our economy and environment.
Yes, that last sentence sounds extreme, but you’re witnessing it with your own eyes and ears.
Poor old Rexie from Greens Marketing. A dud for the Greens and helpful to the Coalition.
martini henry @ #403 Monday, January 13th, 2020 – 2:42 pm
OMG!
Confessions @ #416 Monday, January 13th, 2020 – 3:01 pm
Confessions, in this discussion, I think it’s important that this be noted in Keane’s article:
Only the Gillard government — under pressure from the Greens — and Bill Shorten in the 2013-16 parliament, when he advocated strong emissions abatement targets and two carbon pricing schemes, can avoid blame.
Sorry ‘fess, I see that you’ve got that covered – I’m playing catchup.
(helicopters and elvis roaring overhead)
ItzaDream @ #437 Monday, January 13th, 2020 – 3:45 pm
Oh dear! 😯
I’m tipping the ‘friends of coal’ cartel have no interest in helicopters or elvis…
Boerwar @ #424 Monday, January 13th, 2020 – 2:16 pm
Which in the absence of a Greens majority implies there should be more of them in parliament, not less.
If the Greens had held a parliamentary majority in both houses for 30 years and the environment had still gone backwards, then there’d be a strong case for denouncing them as ineffective at achieving their priorities.
But as it stands the best that can be said is they’re ineffective at forming a majority government. Verdict’s out on whether such a government would be effective on environmental issues. You have to try it first before you can assess it. 🙂
And of course if Labor wants that “hoovered up” environment vote back all it has to do is adopt and advocate some environmental and climate policies attractive to those voters*.
* Or just aggressively demonize the Coalition for not having said policies.
a r,
Maybe those voters could start being realistic about what policies are possible in order to stitch together a winning proposition in the electorate?
a r @ #442 Monday, January 13th, 2020 – 3:49 pm
The ‘friends of coal’ cartel won’t allow it. Their partisan soldiers will protect them.
C@tmomma @ #443 Monday, January 13th, 2020 – 3:54 pm
Is sacrificing the broader economy and environment so the coal industry can prosper a logical ‘winning proposition’ for society ..?
All – focus your hatred on #ScottNoIdea
ar
For 30 years the Greens have cornered the environment vote, essentially taking it out of electoral play.
Perhaps the Greens had better find a way of not systematically wasting the environmental vote.
Young Lib who gave some Drag Queens a hard time is found dead in a suspected suicide:
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7880357/Young-Liberal-Wilson-Gavin-drag-queens-protest-dead-Chelmer-station.html
A reminder
As Wayne Swan posted on twitter. It was One Nation and Clive Palmer preferences that got the LNP elected.
Both Labor and the Greens failed to win those voters.
We know those voters are not getting the truth.
That’s the part where Bernard Keane blamed the media.
Ah… the mouse with the overbite.
south @ #419 Monday, January 13th, 2020 – 3:07 pm
I call bullshit on Gladys claiming that none of the six deaths the coroner reported on would have been prevented by pill testing because five of the six were pure MDMA and the other MDMA mixed with cocaine. (start at 9:00 in the video)
Pill testing as I understand it looks at content and purity, and I don’t understand her claim the being pure means that the death couldn’t have been prevented. Does she mean that the alarm is only raised if there are impurities?
But, more importantly, pill testing gives the music festival goer access to counselling and information *on the spot*. These deaths may well have been prevented by exactly this. The process of pill testing per se is known to change behaviour.
Here is a nice overview from Prof Ritter, Uni NSW :
https://ndarc.med.unsw.edu.au/blog/six-reasons-australia-should-pilot-pill-testing-party-drugs
Mavis @ #448 Monday, January 13th, 2020 – 4:04 pm
A very troubled individual. Just a sad situation in totality.
Itza:
Gosh that sounds bad!
Emeritus Pope Benedict XVI comes of retirement to reaffirm his view on priestly celibacy:
https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/retired-pope-breaks-promise-to-hide-from-the-world-releases-controversial-book-20200113-p53r0p.html
I noticed my Twitter feed yesterday full of the Qld Young Lib guy, getting piled on. Given some of his previous anti SSM campaigning, he would appear to be disturbed. Though suicide?
And George Christensen tweets this..
‘Suicide happens when Twitter keyboard warriors pile on an individual for a political protest. Twitter is broken. It’s for ad hominem attacks & pile-ons, not real discourse. And it’s aided & abetted by the media. I can’t delete the media but I am deleting my twitter account. Bye.‘
Yes, Rex, obviously a very troubled young man.
Mavis
There was a time when there were three popes at the same time.
It looks like we might have one and a half popes, ATM.
Boerwar @ #447 Monday, January 13th, 2020 – 4:03 pm
For 30 yrs the Greens have hoovered up the environment vote that Labor has discarded for the fossil fuel lobby riches.
Peter van Onselen
@vanOnselenP
·
5h
So cynical…I’m sure he is working hard selflessly, having realised he was wrong initially and needs to now do the right thing because that’s what the nation needs. I doubt political recovery has anything to do with it whatsoever.
Quote Tweet
Michael W
@mpwoodhead
· 5h
Replying to @10NewsFirst @hughriminton and @vanOnselenP
PM working overtime to save his own skin
And for sake of completeness, the senate:
Senate Swings
ALP
2007: +5.28%
2010: -5.17%
2013: -5.02%
2016: +0.16%
2019: -1.01%
ALP Senate swing 2004 -> 2019: -5.76%
GRN
2007: +1.38%
2010: +4.07%
2013: -4.46%
2016: -0.58%
2019: +1.54%
GRN Senate Swing 2004 -> 2019: 1.95%
guytaur says:
Monday, January 13, 2020 at 4:07 pm
A reminder
As Wayne Swan posted on twitter. It was One Nation and Clive Palmer preferences that got the LNP elected.
Both Labor and the Greens failed to win those voters.
We know those voters are not getting the truth.
That’s the part where Bernard Keane blamed the media.
guytaur, who stood the best chance of getting these votes?
Do you think the gas guzzler convoy made it harder or easier for labor to deal with the issue?
sprocket
Bullying is wrong. It’s no surprise a hate protest got a pile on.
Sad and bad all around. No one comes out looking good.
Expect more as Morrison tries to impose discrimination on society.
sprocket_ @ #455 Monday, January 13th, 2020 – 4:14 pm
Can we not promote anything to do with George Christensen, Miranda Devine or 4chan …?