Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor

A crash in Scott Morrison’s standing finds Labor edging ahead on voting intention, and Anthony Albanese taking the lead on preferred prime minister.

The first Newspoll for the year, and the third under the new YouGov online polling regime, finds Labor opening up a 51-49 lead, after they trailed 52-48 in the poll in early December. On the primary vote, the Coalition is down two to 40%, Labor up three to 36%, the Greens up one to 12% and One Nation down one to 4%. Perhaps more remarkably, Scott Morrison now trails Anthony Albanese as preferred prime minister by 43-39, after leading him 48-34 in the previous poll. The damage on Morrison’s personal ratings amounts to an eight point drop on approval to 37% and an eleven point rise on disapproval to 59%. Conversely, Albanese is up six on approval to 46% and down four on disapproval to 37%. The Australian’s report is here; the poll was conducted from Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1505.

UPDATE (Essential Research): The Guardian has numbers from the first Essential Research poll of the year, but they disappointingly offer nothing on voting intention. What they do provide is corroboration for Newspoll’s finding that Anthony Albanese has taken the lead over Scott Morrison as preferred prime minister, in this case at 39-36, which compares with a 44-28 lead to Morrison when Essential last asked the question in early November. We are told that Scott Morrison is up nine on disapproval to 52% and that Anthony Albanese is up four on approval to 43% – their respective approval and disapproval ratings will have to wait for the full Essential report, which will presumably be with us later today or tomorrow. UPDATE: Morrison is down five on approval to 40%, Albanese is up two on disapproval to 30%. Full report here.

Despite everything, the poll finds 32% approving of Morrison’s handling of the bushfire crisis, which may be related to the fact that his approval rating was down only three among Coalition voters. The Guardian tells us only that 36% strongly disapproved of Morrison’s performance, to which the less strong measure of disapproval will need to be added to produce an equivalent figure for the 32% approval. Fifty-two per cent disagreed that Australia had always had bushfires like those just experienced, and 78% believe the government had been unprepared for them. Efforts to shift blame to the states do not appear to have borne fruit: Gladys Berejiklian’s handling of the bushfires scored 55% approval among New South Wales respondents, while Daniel Andrews was on 58% (these numbers would have come from small sub-samples of around 300 to 400 respondents).

The poll also offers a timely addition to the pollster’s leaders attributes series. The findings for the various attributes in this serious invariably move en bloc with the leaders’ general standing, and Morrison is accordingly down across the board. However, a clear standout is his collapse from 51% to 32% for “good in a crisis”, on which he was up 10% the last time the question was posed in October. Other unfavourable movements related in The Guardian range from a six-point increase in “out of touch with ordinary Australians“ to 62% to a 12 point drop on “visionary” to 30%.

More on all this when the full report is published. The poll was conducted online from Tuesday to Sunday from a sample of 1081.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,417 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor”

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  1. poroti @ #307 Monday, January 13th, 2020 – 9:18 am

    The real test for Scrott is yet to come. Once all the Adrenalin stops pumping, the fires fade and media attention drifts away untold thousands will be faced with the hard grind of rebuilding. Scrotty talking a big game is fine and dandy during the “emergency ” phase but when ‘reality’ bears down on so many towns and regions he better be able to deliver the goods. If horror stories start coming out about this fail his approval ratings today will look fantastic in comparison.

    A big indication he hasn’t got the balls is the paltry sum of funding his govt has allocated to recovery and rebuilding. $2b in the outyears no less, is a mere drop in the ocean of what will be required.

  2. Greensborough Growler @ #309 Monday, January 13th, 2020 – 12:18 pm

    The good news is that Morrison has re-ierated that Climate Change is a thing and that it had a part to play in the recent Bushfires. He further acknowledges that people are concerned and that the Government needs to re-visit what practical things they should do to ameliorate the effects. This includes thinking about planning to consider Emission targets but only if it doesn’t affect employment opprtunities in the Regions, undermine our Mining Industry, does not lead to Electricity price rises and does not affect the stability of his Government.

    So it’ll be an announcement here and there, the occasional cash splash on a coal oriented research and a lot of actively doing nothing for as long as they can get away with it.

    Oh and clear the land and do more back burning!

  3. Not Sure @ #266 Monday, January 13th, 2020 – 11:25 am

    C@tmomma says:
    Monday, January 13, 2020 at 8:25 am

    …”annoying, nasty, bastard, vicious trolling, physiologically incapable of being a decent human, piss off, miscreant, arsehole, nasty little miscreant, blog trollop, nasty, nasty, abused, nasty, nasty, nasty, miscreant, blatant modus operandi of destroying the Labor party, besmirched.

    ……………….

    Utterly unhinged?

    I see you haven’t compiled a comparable list for nath. So, excuse me if I ignore you Mr Blog Behavioural Standards Test policeman.

  4. Ben Eltham
    @beneltham
    ·
    2h
    Statement by Siemens CEO Joe Kaeser on the Carmichael mine: Siemens will go ahead and work with Adani, in part because Matt Canavan wrote to him urging him to.

    Scomo’s little helpers.

  5. poroti says:
    Monday, January 13, 2020 at 12:18 pm
    The real test for Scrott is yet to come. Once all the Adrenalin stops pumping, the fires fade and media attention drifts away untold thousands will be faced with the hard grind of rebuilding. Scrotty talking a big game is fine and dandy during the “emergency ” phase but when ‘reality’ bears down on so many towns and regions he better be able to deliver the goods. If horror stories start coming out about this fail his approval ratings today will look fantastic in comparison.

    ______________________________________

    Similar to what BB is saying and I agree – except the future is hard to predict.

    The one thing is that the people who are trying to rebuild or just recover, and their families and friends, will lose interest in blaming greenies and arsonists and start focussing on who is screwing them up in the here and now.

    It’s interesting some of the reporters from the South Coast fires complaining about the absence of military assistance even before they were given the go-ahead by the government to intervene.

    The one question on the lips of the victims of this massive disaster across the country will be ‘where is the help you promised and I expected?’

  6. lizzie @ #318 Monday, January 13th, 2020 – 12:23 pm

    Ben Eltham
    @beneltham
    ·
    2h
    Statement by Siemens CEO Joe Kaeser on the Carmichael mine: Siemens will go ahead and work with Adani, in part because Matt Canavan wrote to him urging him to.

    Scomo’s little helpers.

    I wonder what Angela Merkel would have to say about that? I thought Germany was on a fast track to Decarbonising their economy?

  7. A big indication he hasn’t got the balls is the paltry sum of funding his govt has allocated to recovery and rebuilding. $2b in the outyears no less, is a mere drop in the ocean of what will be required.

    _______________________________

    And like the NDIS, it probably won’t even all be spent because there is no effective machinery yet to spend it effectively.

  8. ,blockquote>In the state of New South Wales, home to Sydney, health officials said emergency room visits for asthma and breathing problems increased more than 34 percent in the period from Dec. 30 and Jan. 5 compared to a year earlier. Ambulance calls for respiratory issues were also higher, about 2,500 compared to the five-year average of about 1,900. Similarly, hospital admissions increased to more than 430, surpassing the five-year average of 361.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2020/01/12/australia-air-poses-threat-people-are-rushing-hospitals-cities-choked-by-smoke/

    &w=1440

  9. Re Centrelink:

    Before the bush fires, a mate told me that on transitioning from Austudy to Newstart, he was required to do 15 hours of unpaid work a week. He said Centrelink was very gung-ho. Last Friday he reported to Centrelink to be allocated a workplace. They told him that the work for the dole scheme is held in abeyance, with their imperative to service bush fire victims. He didn’t object.

  10. The one thing is that the people who are trying to rebuild or just recover, and their families and friends, will lose interest in blaming greenies and arsonists and start focussing on who is screwing them up in the here and now.

    Like this:

    Jodi McKay
    @JodiMcKayMP
    ·
    Jan 12
    When Gladys stands at the podium & says resources are adequate & everything that can be done is being done, do not believe her. I visited Balmoral on Friday. There were mistakes made in dealing with the fire & there is now little support for the community

  11. Mavis,
    My son was informed this morning that Job Search requirements have been suspended until the 18th of January to look after Bushfire victims.

  12. Now that brexit is going to happen as wanted by the UK overlords, the focus is on the evil Meghan. How dare she.
    I didnt know wearing a wedding ring was obligatory. Me and OH haven’t worn our wedding rings for decades. In fact OH never wore his ring, and I only did for a couple of years.
    Oh the inhumanity!

    MEGHAN Markle was snapped apparently without her wedding ring – hours before she and Prince Harry announced they are stepping back from the Royal Family. She visited The National’s Dorf…
    thesun.co.uk

  13. guytaur:

    Monday, January 13, 2020 at 12:29 pm

    I reckon it will be the smoke haze that Morrison will be remembered for as it has affected so many.

  14. Exactly.

    Kate Washington MP
    @KateRWashington

    Making it rain carrots and sweet potatoes Nice distraction from the fact they have no plan to tackle climate change, no plan for recovery from this ecological disaster. #nswpol #ClimateChange #bushfirecrisis

    Kate is NSW Labor’s Shadow Minister for the Environment.

  15. guytaur says:
    Monday, January 13, 2020 at 12:24 pm
    For any that missed it Ross Garnaut is laying the groundwork for Labor and Greens to make the running on climate change.

    As soon as the bickering stops.

    This won’t happen. The Gs are a Labor-hostile voice. They despise Labor. They sneer at working people. They dismiss their views and their predicament.

    The Gs will continue to campaign inter alia for the LNP.

  16. Garnaut must surely have gained street cred by being so accurate in his prophecy about the effects of AGW. And he’s being tactful re Morrison.

    But will Morrison appreciate it?

    Australia could have avoided the scale of the devastating bushfires, Professor Ross Garnaut has said as he warned the situation would continue to worsen if there wasn’t global action on climate change, something he said didn’t have to come at the expense of the economy.

    The economist said he “strongly endorsed” Prime Minister Scott Morrison’s focus on reducing emissions without damaging the economy, and believed Australian industries could still reap the benefits of the country’s mineral resources in a zero-emissions world.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-01-13/ross-garnaut-on-bushfires-scott-morrison-climate-change/11861846?section=politics

  17. I didnt realise Morrison said this. The ADF was very instrumental during black Saturday.

    Kevin Rudd
    @MrKRudd
    · Jan 12
    Morrison claimed today this is the first time defence reserves have been deployed to respond to bushfires, and that federal governments haven’t previously taken a lead role in bushfire emergencies. The history of Black Saturday 2009 shows this is simply not true @David_Speers

  18. C@tmomma:

    [‘My son was informed this morning that Job Search requirements have been suspended until the 18th of January to look after Bushfire victims.’]

    It could vary from locality to locality. My mate was told (wwtte), don’t ring us, we’ll ring you. He took this to mean that it’s been suspended indefinitely.

  19. Mavis

    Its the combination.

    I agree with you about the so many affected. Directly and indirectly. With long term consequences. I think we will now have a recession despite the building phase of construction because of the hit on tourism and the permanent hit to so many people on their income and means of earning it.

    Thats why I agree Labor needs to join the Greens and hammer the economy cannot be seen as separate from the environment. The whole common sense no environment no economy line.

    Ross Garnaut has been excellent outlining the case.

  20. Logical choice

    Quote Tweet

    Brian Tyler Cohen
    @briantylercohen
    · 2h
    HUGE: Looks like one of the impeachment managers will be Adam Schiff, fresh off of being insulted by Trump at his latest rally. *Something* tells me that a Trump is going to wish he kept his mouth shut.
    https://nytimes.com/2020/01/11/us/

  21. WB pointed out yesterday that talking about issues and not particular posters was what we should be doing. Perhaps that is what posters should do. Endless discussion about who is the biggest Turd posting, who is a a troll and taking tit for tat umbrage just clogs up the blog with meaningless waffle.

    I block those who engage in this behaviour and recommend others do the same. WB is the sole person who decides what is acceptable and I leave it up to him. I also block rinse and repeaters who seem stuck on their particular stupid. That’s my way of controlling the quality of what I respond to.

  22. Mavis @ #331 Monday, January 13th, 2020 – 12:37 pm

    C@tmomma:

    [‘My son was informed this morning that Job Search requirements have been suspended until the 18th of January to look after Bushfire victims.’]

    It could vary from locality to locality. My mate was told (wwtte), don’t ring us, we’ll ring you. He took this to mean that it’s been suspended indefinitely.

    That may be. I just thought I’d put it out there for you so that your friend wouldn’t be blindsided. They’re like that now, Centrelink. You have to know every last detail of their actions and the timeline, otherwise they will breach you. Maybe a quick phone call to them to ascertain the timeline for your area.

  23. lizzie @ #335 Monday, January 13th, 2020 – 12:44 pm

    @Ausshot3Dave
    ·
    8m
    Mallacoota fires leave Princes Highway ‘extremely dangerous’, likely to be closed for weeks – ABC News https://abc.net.au/news/2020-01-13/highway-to-mallacoota-likely-to-be-closed-for-some-time-fires/11861030. Armoured Army vehicle’s had close calls with falling trees! So don’t travel the road & don’t push your luck!

    Yes the latest Firey to die had a tree fall on him. 🙁

  24. guytaur @ #320 Monday, January 13th, 2020 – 12:24 pm

    For any that missed it Ross Garnaut is laying the groundwork for Labor and Greens to make the running on climate change.

    As soon as the bickering stops.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-01-13/ross-garnaut-on-bushfires-scott-morrison-climate-change/11861846?section=politics

    The LibNat and Labor ‘friends of coal’ are willing beneficiaries of the coal lobby which is single-minded in protecting its industry despite its contribution in destroying our economy and environment. So Garnaut hasn’t a hope if the partisans keep supporting them..

  25. On Australian fossil fuel subsidies. Interesting (and quite brief) summary here (updated Sept 2019):

    https://www.odi.org/publications/11360-g20-coal-subsidies-australia

    Australia remains one of few OECD countries promoting investment in new domestic coal-fired power

    We currently subsidize coal to the tune of around $2 billion per annum – around $1 billion on production subsidies (which would apply to coal both exported and locally burned coal), and another $1 billion on consumption subsidies (which would only apply to coal burned locally).

    Without these subsidies, both coal export and coal use in Australia would be dying industries. As it stands, both are alive and well, and likely to remain that way for some considerable time. In the case of coal exports, the industry is even projected to expand slightly in the short to medium term.

  26. lizzie:

    [‘What? He’s better not hold his breath while he’s waiting. That’s the callback that rarely happens.’]

    That’s what he hoping.

  27. lizzie

    Its enormously expensive to take an existing house and rebuild it with fire resistant materials.

    Far cheaper to install a sprinkler system (and make sone pragmatic improvements).

    New homes? Again its a combination of sensible design and sprinklers. Fire resistance without sprinklers is hard.

  28. Cud Chewer

    New homes? Again its a combination of sensible design and sprinklers. Fire resistance without sprinklers is hard.

    So in declared areas, make sprinklers compulsory in new buildings. And as a corollary, if the water supply wouldn’t be able to cope, maybe they shouldn’t build there.

    I dunno.

  29. A good question. Where is Dutton the (quote) ” notorious non-reader” ?

    Where have Dutton and Pezzullo been hiding?

    Peter Dutton is the senior minister responsible for the Home Affairs portfolio that includes Emergency Management Australia (EMA). EMA is a division of the Department of Home Affairs whose Secretary is Mike Pezzullo. EMA says its role is to “build a disaster resilient Australia that prevents, prepares, responds and recovers from disasters and emergencies”. Thus in their empire building, Dutton and Pezzullo took on responsibility for preventing and preparing Australia for these bushfires. So why the eerie silence from both of them?

    https://johnmenadue.com/abul-rizvi-where-have-dutton-and-pezzullo-been-hiding/

  30. guytaur

    The Greens have spent the last 12 months wanking over a coal mine. Ross is talking about the economic advantages of moving Australia to a carbon free economy, and why we as a country should be encouraging it, not hindering it, as the Liberals are doing.

    The two concepts are miles apart.

  31. guytaur:

    [‘Thats why I agree Labor needs to join the Greens and hammer the economy cannot be seen as separate from the environment.’]

    The Greens and Labor have far more in common than either party will admit to. But they’re separate entities and will for the foreseeable future remain so. As has been witnessed in the Senate, both parties often come together, though they maintain a certain distance. I agree with you that the economy and the
    environment are cojoined.

  32. @AOC tweets

    It hit ~70° in NY. In January.

    This weather at this time of year can be very risky for local farmers & families they serve.

    If certain crops germinate/flower prematurely & a freeze follows, crops could fail or drop in yield.

    When food supply drops, prices rise. #ClimateCrisis https://twitter.com/nwsnewyorkny/status/1216434600420884482

    @NWSNewYorkNY tweets

    As of 1:30pm, new record highs have been set at Central Park (68°), Newark (69°), JFK (68°), Islip (68°), and Bridgeport (69°), breaking records previously set in 2017 and 2018. Islip and Bridgeport broke their records by 10° and 14°, respectively!

  33. This poll is shocking news for the Greens.

    The worst ever drought. The worst ever bushfires. The hottest ever temperature. The driest ever year. A biodiversity massacre. The Extinction Rebellion astroturfing. The Climate Revolt astroturfing. The Bushfire Protest astroturfing. The Thunberg charisma. Australia’s role in the COP 25 disaster. A sleazebag from marketing running Australia. A Labor Party that has no emissions policy.

    It is difficult to envisage a more favorable set of external circumstances for the Greens.

    And, all that for…. +1%!

    The Greens should change their reckless and contemptuous policies.

    The should get rid of Di Natale.

  34. Boerwar @ #351 Monday, January 13th, 2020 – 12:06 pm

    The worst ever drought. The worst ever bushfires. The hottest ever temperature. The driest ever year. A biodiversity massacre. The Extinction Rebellion astroturfing. The Climate Revolt astroturfing. The Bushfire Protest astroturfing. The Thunberg charisma. Australia’s role in the COP 25 disaster. A sleazebag from marketing running Australia. A Labor Party that has no emissions policy.

    It is difficult to envisage a more favorable set of external circumstances for the Greens.

    And, all that for…. +1%!

    Or you could flip that around quite easily, and say that with Morrison’s basically unchecked propaganda blaming the Greens for the worst ever bushfires it’s difficult to envisage a more unfavorable set of circumstances for the Greens.

    And despire that, +1%! 🙂

  35. It’s dawning on people that The Greens can’t really DO anything. Fine sentiments won’t change a thing. And The Greens can stop begging for Labor’s help. They are fair weather friends.

  36. Mavis

    Yes. For example. Labor like the Greens profess to listen to the experts.

    That makes them extreme to the LNP. No matter how many people here try and distance themselves from the Greens.

    The bottom line is Labor takes reality seriously and does not indulge in reckless fantasy like the LNP does. Even if some think politically they have to be Siemens not a bank with Adani. Its why Labor can never get away from the LNP saying Labor is reckless and ruled by the Greens.

    The sooner they realise that and plan for that lie being reality the sooner they can structure proper policy for the next election that appeals to the most voters not the minority of rural and coal mining areas.

    Just like the bushfires being the Greens fault because of arsonists the LNP and allies will think of something to blame Labor for during the campaign.

    Labor needs a narrative that counters this and does not trash the environment at the same time. The next new mine will be either Clive Palmer’s or Gina Rinehardt’s

  37. Message to our esteemed leader – While you were drinking cocktails and perving on the sheilas on Wakiki Beach or wherever you were on your top secret vacation and then hosting a big shots party to watch the fire from Kirribilli House, our firies were out on the frontline putting their lives at risk to save their fellow Australians. Then Mr Big Shot comes out of his burrow and announces (kicking and screaming) that all volunteer firies will receive monetary compensation for their brave and selfless efforts. But wait! He didn’t mention the fine print. They don’t get a cent until they have served for ten days and even then they’ll have to go through more hoops than a circus monkey which will probably turn most off from even applying. You are a miserable c…. Morrison !

  38. Greensborough Growler @ #314 Monday, January 13th, 2020 – 9:21 am

    Greensborough Growler @ #309 Monday, January 13th, 2020 – 12:18 pm

    The good news is that Morrison has re-ierated that Climate Change is a thing and that it had a part to play in the recent Bushfires. He further acknowledges that people are concerned and that the Government needs to re-visit what practical things they should do to ameliorate the effects. This includes thinking about planning to consider Emission targets but only if it doesn’t affect employment opprtunities in the Regions, undermine our Mining Industry, does not lead to Electricity price rises and does not affect the stability of his Government.

    So it’ll be an announcement here and there, the occasional cash splash on a coal oriented research and a lot of actively doing nothing for as long as they can get away with it.

    Oh and clear the land and do more back burning!

    You left out more dams.

  39. Or you could flip that around quite easily, and say that with Morrison’s basically unchecked propaganda blaming the Greens for the worst ever bushfires it’s difficult to envisage a more unfavorable set of circumstances for the Greens.

    And despire that, +1%!

    __________________________________

    The only people who believe that shit (too many sadly) are those who would not vote Green at any time before hell freezes over. There should be no impact on the actual or potential Greens primary voting pool.

  40. @wendy_harmer tweets

    On point, as always, @BernardKeane calls out those who prepared the ground for this catastrophic fire season… starting with the Howard Govt. in the 1990s and the special deal on land clearing at Kyoto.
    @crikey_news
    #AustralianFires

  41. One more thought about this poll and the no doubt imminent attempts of the Murdoch government and Scomo the Innocent’s spin doctors to rehabilitate his public reputation.

    There have been a lot of lies told about the fires. Some by Scomo. Some by Barnaby the arsonist. Many by bots on social media. In fact academic analysis suggests over 100 bots were used. Who funded this distraction campaign when the ifres were at their highest?

    Somebody needs to ask Scomo if his office or the Liberal Party has been using social media in recent weeks to advance suggestions that arsonists or “greenies” were the cause of the fires, and not climate change? Can Scomo guarantee that the Liberal – Murdoch government is not running such a campaign? Does Scomo reject Barnaby’s claims that this is all due to greenies? (Since this was disproven by the NSW RFS chief while standing next to Gladys Berejiklian).

    Labor should repeat those questions until they are answered, or the Prime Misleader can be seen to avoid them.

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