Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor

A crash in Scott Morrison’s standing finds Labor edging ahead on voting intention, and Anthony Albanese taking the lead on preferred prime minister.

The first Newspoll for the year, and the third under the new YouGov online polling regime, finds Labor opening up a 51-49 lead, after they trailed 52-48 in the poll in early December. On the primary vote, the Coalition is down two to 40%, Labor up three to 36%, the Greens up one to 12% and One Nation down one to 4%. Perhaps more remarkably, Scott Morrison now trails Anthony Albanese as preferred prime minister by 43-39, after leading him 48-34 in the previous poll. The damage on Morrison’s personal ratings amounts to an eight point drop on approval to 37% and an eleven point rise on disapproval to 59%. Conversely, Albanese is up six on approval to 46% and down four on disapproval to 37%. The Australian’s report is here; the poll was conducted from Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1505.

UPDATE (Essential Research): The Guardian has numbers from the first Essential Research poll of the year, but they disappointingly offer nothing on voting intention. What they do provide is corroboration for Newspoll’s finding that Anthony Albanese has taken the lead over Scott Morrison as preferred prime minister, in this case at 39-36, which compares with a 44-28 lead to Morrison when Essential last asked the question in early November. We are told that Scott Morrison is up nine on disapproval to 52% and that Anthony Albanese is up four on approval to 43% – their respective approval and disapproval ratings will have to wait for the full Essential report, which will presumably be with us later today or tomorrow. UPDATE: Morrison is down five on approval to 40%, Albanese is up two on disapproval to 30%. Full report here.

Despite everything, the poll finds 32% approving of Morrison’s handling of the bushfire crisis, which may be related to the fact that his approval rating was down only three among Coalition voters. The Guardian tells us only that 36% strongly disapproved of Morrison’s performance, to which the less strong measure of disapproval will need to be added to produce an equivalent figure for the 32% approval. Fifty-two per cent disagreed that Australia had always had bushfires like those just experienced, and 78% believe the government had been unprepared for them. Efforts to shift blame to the states do not appear to have borne fruit: Gladys Berejiklian’s handling of the bushfires scored 55% approval among New South Wales respondents, while Daniel Andrews was on 58% (these numbers would have come from small sub-samples of around 300 to 400 respondents).

The poll also offers a timely addition to the pollster’s leaders attributes series. The findings for the various attributes in this serious invariably move en bloc with the leaders’ general standing, and Morrison is accordingly down across the board. However, a clear standout is his collapse from 51% to 32% for “good in a crisis”, on which he was up 10% the last time the question was posed in October. Other unfavourable movements related in The Guardian range from a six-point increase in “out of touch with ordinary Australians“ to 62% to a 12 point drop on “visionary” to 30%.

More on all this when the full report is published. The poll was conducted online from Tuesday to Sunday from a sample of 1081.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,417 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor”

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  1. This govt has got to be one of the worst ever

    Mark Dreyfus
    @markdreyfusQCMP
    ·
    2h
    Morrison Government caught red-handed taking community sports club money to throw cash at their marginal seats and Bridget McKenzie says “no rules were broken”. Really? The Auditor-General says “there was no legal authority” for you making these grants!
    Biased, with no legal authority: $100m pre-election sport grants panned by audit office
    A contentious $100 million pre-election cash splash by the Federal Government was focused on marginal and target seats, the auditor-general says in a report raising the prospect the entire scheme was…
    abc.net.au

  2. Steve777 @ #1945 Wednesday, January 15th, 2020 – 6:06 pm

    Re Confessions @8:59.
    ”The problem with Warren’s health care plan is that she couldn’t explain how she would pay for it.”

    It’s only the left that get asked how they’re going to pay for stuff.

    John Hewson would disagree. And besides, he could’ve given her a reminder that if you’re proposing big change you need to be across the specifics.

  4. Another obvious thing for Warren in the face of the “It will cost US$Trillions” is to point out Health care already costs nearly US$5 Trillion each and every year.

  7. Victoria:

    The ABC is pretty scathing about the whole thing:

    The findings from the auditor-general, released today, also raise the prospect that the entire scheme was illegal, noting there did not appear to be any legal authority for then-sports minister Bridget McKenzie to have picked recipients.

    The report into the Community Sports Infrastructure Grant program discovered “evidence of distribution bias in the award of grant funding”.

    Labor sport spokesperson Senator Don Farrell said the report revealed “industrial-scale pork barrelling”.

    “I think it’s very clear that the Government did not expect to win the last election,” he said.

    “They thought they could get away with all this pork barrelling, save a few extra seats, and it’s come back to bite them in a very big way.”

    https://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2020-01-15/government-sport-grants-targeted-marginal-seats-audit-office/11870292?pfmredir=sm

  8. Socrates @ #1948 Wednesday, January 15th, 2020 – 6:09 pm

    Fess

    The obvious thing for Warren to do is a reverse Howard and give a publicly funded healthcare option that allows people to opt out of their private health insurance. This will easily pay for it, save workers money, but end the gravy train for private insurers, who will hate it. So she should keep it vague till after the election IMO.

    From memory it was taking away people’s private health insurance that jarred with many voters. I believe she has softened her stance on that now though.

  10. Cud Chewer @ #1799 Wednesday, January 15th, 2020 – 7:39 pm

    C@t I’d really love to see how far Bloomberg will go. Will he go further than a bit of shit-stirring during the primaries and actually fund the Democrats they way they need to be funded..

    Sorry, been watching Reality TV. 😀

    As to your questions re Michael Bloomberg, it is my understanding that, with the hints Joe Biden has dropped, he may call him up as his ‘Republican’ running mate, though I personally don’t think so, I think that was just Biden virtue-signalling to the swinging voters.

    However, Bloomberg is in it to win it, and by that I mean that he wants Trump defeated, so he has promised to spend hundreds of millions of his own money, even if he doesn’t win the nomination, on ads and a ground game to help the Democrats defeat Donald Trump.

    Also, you asked why Biden’s running mate is such an important issue. Well, as I have heard it, he has intimated he may only serve one term, so the person chosen as his VP would then have the inside track to run in 2024 for the Dems. Very consequential as a result who he chooses, if and when he becomes the nominee in 2020.

  14. It WOULD be funny to see Labor’s and The Greens’ rugs pulled out from underneath them by a repentant Morrison, with Murdoch cheering him on.

    Don’t think it can’t happen. Because it can.

    Already we have Morrison claiming to have not only a wholly adequate Climate Change policy, but indeed a world-leading one: the envy of other countries… and sooner than other countries too.

    Don’t waste your time on trying to refute claims such as these. You’ll only do your head in. Labor’s “woefully inadequate” Climate Change policies are already forgotten, except in the media’s annals of failure.

    Yes, perhaps they tried, but Labor just wasn’t trusted by the voters (possibly unfairly, the media will tell us, but there you go, politics is a cruel business. CUE SFX: CROCODILE TEARS). In the same way that we were told that only a conservative government could deliver gun reform, and new taxes like the GST, we’ll be told that only Morrison can deliver Climate Change policy reform that will stick. Too bad. So sad. Labor just couldn’t cut it.

    On to the next issue.

    Mark my words somebody.

  15. Senator Don Farrell said: “I think it’s very clear that the Government did not expect to win the last election,”.

    What he is saying is that the LNP had a too high expectation of the Labor Party’s political abilities! 🙂

  16. ItzaDream says:

    Wednesday, January 15, 2020 at 8:40 pm

    I was only talking about the USA, and you cut my next two sentences :
    It’s not that I don’t agree with it. But, it’s the socialist policy that would sink her.
    I’ve worked in the health care sector here for 50 years, am well familiar with the Canadian system, but believe strongly that the USA is not ready for medicare for all, as much as you and I might believe in it
    —————————————————-

    I did recognize in my post that you believe in it and that it would be a hard sell.

    Your pessimism about the U.S. echoes what I hear in this country when I suggest Australia should have a real universal single payer hospital and health insurance system. Not the two-tier joke called Medicare with its gaps, copayments, overcharging specialists and a large part of health care excluded.

    I’d be glad to get your inside analysis of what is wrong with Medicare in Australia. And why you think that while it works in Canada it would not work here.

    Even the Labor party has difficulty recognizing what a great vote-getter it would be. It would also be a great wedge against the Coalition who had such a hard time dealing with “Mediscare.” I wrote twice to the former Shadow Health Minister to get her views and never received a reply.

    This poll suggests that you may be a little too pessimistic about the mood in the U.S. on this issue.

    “Seventy percent said they supported providing “Medicare for all,” also known as single-payer health care, for Americans, according to a new American Barometer survey.

    The poll, conducted by Hill.TV and the HarrisX polling company, found that 42 percent of respondents said they “strongly” supported the proposal, while 28 percent said they “somewhat” supported it.

    Fifteen percent said they “somewhat” opposed the measure, while another 15 percent said they “strongly” opposed it.

    “‘Medicare for all’ is a way for Democrats to say basically, ‘Hey, we understand that this is an issue, and we’re willing to do something about it,'” Democratic pollster Nancy Zdunkewicz told Hill.TV’s Joe Concha on “What America’s Thinking.”

    “This specter of government takeover of health care, I don’t even hear it in focus groups with white, working-class Trump voters. They’ll say things like ‘I really like Medicare, why can’t we all have something like that?'” she continued. ”

    ——————————————-

  19. ItzaDream says:
    Wednesday, January 15, 2020 at 9:12 pm

    Confessions @ #1842 Wednesday, January 15th, 2020 – 8:59 pm

    The problem with Warren’s health care plan is that she couldn’t explain how she would pay for it.

    Why couldn’t I say that so simply. Thanks.

    —————————————————–

    OK guys a question:

    What is the thing that is most important to you.

    Times up!

    If you didn’t answer “my health,” you have warped priorities.

    And question 2

    What is the richest nation in the history of the planet?

    I think you’re beginning to get my drift.

  21. BB
    It will work and with Rupert’s crew behind then the public will soon be persuaded they were always for it, they were only opposed to the ‘economy wrecking mad Labor schemes”

  22. Where does that leave Canavan, Barnyard, Craig Kelly, Christensen et al – epiphanies all round?

    If Murdoch does flick the switch and demand serious action and leadership on Climate Change, a big if in my mind, and the Trogladytes roll over, everyone will know who is really running the country.

    Too cute a theory IMHO

  24. ItzaDream says:
    Wednesday, January 15, 2020 at 9:12 pm

    ——————————————-

    I realize that I am preaching to the converted and that we are on the same page.

    However, I’m sorry if my comments sounded critical. I need all the allies I can get in this crusade.

    I’m reacting to the fact that I really don’t need to hear of statements of how much a real universal health care system would cost or how hard a sell it would be, as understandable as those issues are.

    I’d still like to get your take on what is wrong with the current system of paying for hospital and health care in this country.

  25. sprocket_ @ #1872 Wednesday, January 15th, 2020 – 9:59 pm

    Where does that leave Canavan, Barnyard, Craig Kelly, Christensen et al – epiphanies all round?

    If Murdoch does flick the switch and demand serious action and leadership on Climate Change, a big if in my mind, and the Trogladytes roll over, everyone will know who is really running the country.

    Too cute a theory IMHO

    Oh, don’t worry – there will be no danger of any actual action on climate change. Just an apparent change of heart, and a new approach, taking the science ‘seriously’ … ‘for the sake of the nation’, doncha know.

  26. sprocket_

    Murdoch won’t come out and announce it . As for the troglodytes ,how many are true believers in the crap and how many go where the money goes ?

  27. Without knowing too much about how this stuff works, it looks like the Balalaika Branch of the Bernie Bro’s, are rooting for their man.

  30. Make the judiciary white and male again!

    Both of Trump’s confirmed Supreme Court justices are middle-aged white men. The first of those — who was also the first Trump nominee to any court — was Neil Gorsuch, nominated by Trump almost exactly three years ago.

    Since then, the Senate has confirmed 119 other white men to the courts, out of a total of 187 confirmed judges, which means that white men comprise 64 percent of his appointees to the federal bench. In all, 85 percent of Trump nominees have been white and 76 percent have been men.

    https://news.yahoo.com/trump-is-making-the-judicial-branch-white-and-male-again-100059913.html

  31. One curiosity is that NT stands a lot to gain from that mega-project to export electricity to Singapore.

    Its one serious extension cord but its actually solid, well understood physics and engineering. The interesting part (I was listening to an interview with one of the proponents) is the optimisation. How much storage, how to maximise revenue.

  33. beguiledagain @ #1874 Wednesday, January 15th, 2020 – 10:04 pm

    ItzaDream says:
    Wednesday, January 15, 2020 at 9:12 pm

    ——————————————-

    I realize that I am preaching to the converted and that we are on the same page.

    However, I’m sorry if my comments sounded critical. I need all the allies I can get in this crusade.

    I’m reacting to the fact that I really don’t need to hear of statements of how much a real universal health care system would cost or how hard a sell it would be, as understandable as those issues are.

    I’d still like to get your take on what is wrong with the current system of paying for hospital and health care in this country.

    I’ve been off line, sorry. Bit scary here – RFS have been out, and we’re Okas long as the wind doesn’t change. It’s funny how obsessed you get with wind, not day by day, but hour by hour. The RFS weather reports are of three things – temp, RH, wind. I can see the glow in the gully, just to out ESE. All agreed OK to stay, plans in place, keep vigilant (thank you Gladys).

    Very briefly about health – it works in Canada because they’re used to it at a consumer and delivery level.

    Here, we are used to a two tiered system, and a lot of vested interests, including consumers*, including health professionals**, like it that way.

    * I want Dr X in Hosp Y on date Z

    ** I know what I’m worth, and that’s what I’m charging.

  35. Up here near Williamtown (north of Newcastle) we’ve kept 40 years worth or rainfall measurements.

    Last year (2019) we measured 570 mm of rain (half the long term average). Only one year was lower. That was 1980 with 540 mm of rain. However 1979 was a relatively wet year.

    In other words, things are as dry as we have ever seen them here. This is supposed to be coastal but half the landscape here is dead grass and the other half dirt.

  36. ‘Cud Chewer says:
    Wednesday, January 15, 2020 at 10:18 pm

    sprocket

    Regarding the NT News front page. The devil is in the detail. Is there anywhere one can find the text of the actual article?’

    The only time anyone should take the NT News front page at all seriously is when they have a croc story on it.

    Of course P1 takes the front page of the NT News as an opportunity to sl*g L*b*r.

    If the Coalition has a genuine epiphany on climate we are home and hosed on decarbonization.

    I will be very, very happy.

    But do fake epiphanies count?

  38. Cud Chewer

    Perhaps the Rupertarium are doing a bit of ‘market research’ a bit of a test run ? See how it goes in a small out of the way place. If it goes badly it can be quietly buried and forgotten about.

  39. If a change in presentation from Mr Murdoch were to alter the politics in relation to modern energy technology then that would be a good thing, because the market will do the rest (it will in fact do it anyway, but less quickly)

  40. Dismiss the Climate Epiphany at your peril.

    It is certain it’s being workshopped right now.

    How to make an apparent 180 degree reversal of policy without changing anything much at all.

    First, get your media mates to write themselves up as Australia’s greatest Climate champions. They’ve already given $5 million to the Bushfire appeal. They claim to be carbon neutral. It’s not too much of a long bow to draw to extrapolate this into Climate Now!

    Second, get the Business Council to give a little ground.

  41. poroti

    I want to see the article text but I doubt its test marketing. Have you noticed also that the Liberals have begun using the denialist tactic of saying yes climate change is happening but then switching to “resilience and adaptation”.

    See also the 5 stages of climate denial..

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97-per-cent/2013/sep/16/climate-change-contrarians-5-stages-denial

    If the NT article is subterfuge then I suspect its going to go down the “we shouldn’t do anything risky with the economy but we can learn to adapt” path.

  44. I know politics is what this site discusses but I still find the commitment to business as usual politics amazing. These are not business as usual times.

    Large areas of Australia could become uninhabitable if current trends continue. The back of Burke may be the new western desert.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/life/science/environment/2020/01/15/australians-climate-refugees/?utm_source=Adestra&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=PM%20Extra%20-%2020200115

    And whether that happens or not, large areas of inland Australia are probably now uninsurable at rates most residents could afford. Hardly a peep from either side about the reality facing large areas of inland Australia. “We will rebuild”. “We will help you”. Not “suggest you move to the coast”.
    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/jan/14/suncorp-and-iag-temporarily-stop-selling-insurance-in-fire-affected-areas-of-victoria-and-nsw

    We need to stop coal mining now, and any party without the guts to say so does not deserve government.

  49. ItzaDream says:
    Wednesday, January 15, 2020 at 10:27 pm

    beguiledagain @ #1874 Wednesday, January 15th, 2020 – 10:04 pm
    ——————————

    Stay safe. I can appreciate you’ve had more immediate concerns.

    We’ve only had to deal with smoke. We are very conscious of the fact that many, like you, are in the frontline.
    ================================================

    To close our discussion:

    When I’m lying on the floor, after having a heart attack, I’ll remember that with private health insurance I can, while lying there, choose the cardiac specialist of my choice and compare he or she in terms of competence and cost.

    And, then if I’m lucky enough to survive and I am released from hospital, I’ll be happy to pay the specialist’s exorbitant charges which are not covered. What a crazy system.

  50. Bushfire Billsays:
    Wednesday, January 15, 2020 at 10:53 pm
    “Dismiss the Climate Epiphany at your peril.

    It is certain it’s being workshopped right now.”

    I can see it coming…

    “How good is an epiphany!”

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