Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor

A crash in Scott Morrison’s standing finds Labor edging ahead on voting intention, and Anthony Albanese taking the lead on preferred prime minister.

The first Newspoll for the year, and the third under the new YouGov online polling regime, finds Labor opening up a 51-49 lead, after they trailed 52-48 in the poll in early December. On the primary vote, the Coalition is down two to 40%, Labor up three to 36%, the Greens up one to 12% and One Nation down one to 4%. Perhaps more remarkably, Scott Morrison now trails Anthony Albanese as preferred prime minister by 43-39, after leading him 48-34 in the previous poll. The damage on Morrison’s personal ratings amounts to an eight point drop on approval to 37% and an eleven point rise on disapproval to 59%. Conversely, Albanese is up six on approval to 46% and down four on disapproval to 37%. The Australian’s report is here; the poll was conducted from Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1505.

UPDATE (Essential Research): The Guardian has numbers from the first Essential Research poll of the year, but they disappointingly offer nothing on voting intention. What they do provide is corroboration for Newspoll’s finding that Anthony Albanese has taken the lead over Scott Morrison as preferred prime minister, in this case at 39-36, which compares with a 44-28 lead to Morrison when Essential last asked the question in early November. We are told that Scott Morrison is up nine on disapproval to 52% and that Anthony Albanese is up four on approval to 43% – their respective approval and disapproval ratings will have to wait for the full Essential report, which will presumably be with us later today or tomorrow. UPDATE: Morrison is down five on approval to 40%, Albanese is up two on disapproval to 30%. Full report here.

Despite everything, the poll finds 32% approving of Morrison’s handling of the bushfire crisis, which may be related to the fact that his approval rating was down only three among Coalition voters. The Guardian tells us only that 36% strongly disapproved of Morrison’s performance, to which the less strong measure of disapproval will need to be added to produce an equivalent figure for the 32% approval. Fifty-two per cent disagreed that Australia had always had bushfires like those just experienced, and 78% believe the government had been unprepared for them. Efforts to shift blame to the states do not appear to have borne fruit: Gladys Berejiklian’s handling of the bushfires scored 55% approval among New South Wales respondents, while Daniel Andrews was on 58% (these numbers would have come from small sub-samples of around 300 to 400 respondents).

The poll also offers a timely addition to the pollster’s leaders attributes series. The findings for the various attributes in this serious invariably move en bloc with the leaders’ general standing, and Morrison is accordingly down across the board. However, a clear standout is his collapse from 51% to 32% for “good in a crisis”, on which he was up 10% the last time the question was posed in October. Other unfavourable movements related in The Guardian range from a six-point increase in “out of touch with ordinary Australians“ to 62% to a 12 point drop on “visionary” to 30%.

More on all this when the full report is published. The poll was conducted online from Tuesday to Sunday from a sample of 1081.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,417 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor”

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  1. a r

    If you believe people like Michael Moore, people in the US aren’t a bunch of of gun toting lunatics. Its actually a small minority of people that possess the majority of firearms.

    Its actually a culture of fear created by the NRA that is repressing majority sentiment.

    https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/michael-moore-gun-violence-america-we-can-fix-1248905

    Considering what has changed in American society, Moore said that — although there is a culture of fear — he feels many people have “decided” to be less afraid, and that manifests itself by way of fewer households having guns. Moore pointed out that 78 percent of Americans do not own guns.

    “The 300 million-plus guns that we do have are owned by 3 percent of the population,” said the filmmaker, adding that many gun owners have between eight to 22 weapons in their possession.

    That’s also my impression having lived there at times. It really is a sad, sick minority behind the issue.

  3. Historyintime says:
    Wednesday, January 15, 2020 at 7:18 pm

    …”If Pollbludger goes all PC and moderated, this little duck won’t be coming back”…

    ……………

    It is the most remarkable place on the internet in this country, simply because insults are widely slung, ideas are ruthlessly vivisected, and the author permits an authenticity and freedom of speech not known elsewhere.

  4. On Buttigeig, I agree he looks unacceptably young. He’s six years younger than JFK when he was elected, and that was thought young. But regardless, there is no way the USA will vote 1/ gay . They’re in the blowback from voting 1/ black. That could be parsed out to paragraphs, but enough said.

    As for Warren, I like her a lot, save her recklessly poorly funded medicare for all thoughts, which admittedly can be wound back and fine tuned. It’s not that I don’t agree with it. But, it’s the socialist policy that would sink her. And there’s something a bit too combative about her, too sharp in her attacks. Again, it works for me, but when the USA gets to elect a female president, it will be of an externally more healing Momsie persona imo. (Michelle Obama -ish)

    2 cents.

    disclaimer – didn’t watch any of the debate.

  7. William Bowe says:
    Wednesday, January 15, 2020 at 7:43 pm
    Well, I guess things were going okay.

    _______________________________

    Interestingly, two of the worst offenders covered by Asha’s very good post (not named of course) decide to invite further irritable and unpleasant interpersonal snarking.

    Asha, I believe, went to very great pains not to appear to single any person or ‘side’ out in his post and, indeed, indulged in a mea culpa of his own. I don’t believe it helps this site when those who engage in low-effort trolling cannot resist the opportunity to troll, given how little effort it takes to be nasty and personal, rather than informative and constructive.

  8. More scary details about he Evangelical nutters in the WH.

    The Evangelicals Who Pray for War With Iran

    …..Pompeo and Pence reportedly were the top officials pushing Trump to kill Soleimani. They’re also devout evangelicals and major allies of CUFI. ………………….2006 book, Jerusalem Countdown, Hagee imagined an elaborate scenario in which a U.S. or Israeli strike on Iran would trigger an “inferno [that] will explode across the Middle East, plunging the world toward Armageddon.” Faced with scrutiny over his apocalyptic theology, he strained to create a discrete image for his new political organization, insisting that his extensive writings on biblical prophecy about the Rapture and Second Coming were distinct from CUFI’s lobbying agenda.

    https://newrepublic.com/article/156166/pence-pompeo-evanglicals-war-iran-christian-zionism

  11. “It’s not bad people I fear so much as good people. When a person is sure that he is good, he is nearly hopeless; he gets cruel- he believes in punishment.”

    Clarence Darrow

  13. Again apologies for biting and adding to taking away from this forum. This forum is one of my great refuges and I should have been better.

    If I ever troll call me out and I will slink off.

    Enjoy this place to much

  15. poroti @ #1808 Wednesday, January 15th, 2020 – 8:17 pm

    More scary details about he Evangelical nutters in the WH.

    The Evangelicals Who Pray for War With Iran

    …..Pompeo and Pence reportedly were the top officials pushing Trump to kill Soleimani. They’re also devout evangelicals and major allies of CUFI. ………………….2006 book, Jerusalem Countdown, Hagee imagined an elaborate scenario in which a U.S. or Israeli strike on Iran would trigger an “inferno [that] will explode across the Middle East, plunging the world toward Armageddon.” Faced with scrutiny over his apocalyptic theology, he strained to create a discrete image for his new political organization, insisting that his extensive writings on biblical prophecy about the Rapture and Second Coming were distinct from CUFI’s lobbying agenda.

    https://newrepublic.com/article/156166/pence-pompeo-evanglicals-war-iran-christian-zionism

    And the Evangelical mindset is what is at the root of Morrison’s empathy problem imo. He can’t empathise with the goats who will be swept to the left into Hades by a triumphant returning Christ, no matter how hard he tried. Nor can he fake it. He think’s he’s one of the chosen, as terrifying a thought as that is to me, and it looks like that thought system is well and truly locked in. God’s will be done is where he is, and that determinism locks out sheeps caring about the goats.

  19. Asha Leu:

    I follow the unwritten rule of brevity. Theses have their place but not, I think, on a blog such as this, though the moderator seems impressed.

  20. TPOF says:
    Wednesday, January 15, 2020 at 8:15 pm

    William Bowe,

    …”Interestingly, two of the worst offenders”…

    …………

    Strange form of nazism.

  26. ItzaDream says:
    As for Warren, I like her a lot, save her recklessly poorly funded medicare for all thoughts, which admittedly can be wound back and fine tuned.

    —————————————-oo————————

    I recognize that you agree with Warren’s medicare for all but suggest that her proposal would be “poorly funded.”

    That sounds suspiciously like the “it’s not sustainable” furphy that the right always resort to when the left come up with programs to assist the disadvantaged. I agree that it would be hard sell in the richest nation on the planet.

    Have you looked at Canada’s medicare for all. Canadians have not seen any hospital or medical bills for the past half century, specialists and tests included. It’s against the law for physicians who want to be paid, to bill patients .

    Almost everything is bulk billed including all medical care inside and outside of hospitals. No gaps, no co-payments, no credit cards.

    No two-tier private hospital system. No private health insurance for medical and hospital care.

    Private health insurance is only for “extras.”

    Once you’ve examined it, come and tell us how Canada has done it for more than 50 years and the country hasn’t gone to hell in a handcart.

    You know it might just be that medicare for all is less expensive in the long run. Apart from eliminating marketing costs, people are not discouraged from seeking medical attention because of the cost and the community is saved the costs of not dealing with issues before they become more expensive. Simples.

  28. Cud Chewer @ #1565 Wednesday, January 15th, 2020 – 6:45 pm

    If you believe people like Michael Moore, people in the US aren’t a bunch of of gun toting lunatics. Its actually a small minority of people that possess the majority of firearms.

    It’s possible for that to be both true and false. True in the sense that most people aren’t gun toting lunatics and it’s only a small fringe group that’s really gung-ho about guns. Yet false in the sense that even people who don’t own guns still support the Second Amendment and/or the right of people who do want guns to buy and have them.

    Hell, I’m from there and while I’ve certainly never supported the GOP or the NRA and generally approve of Australia’s approach to gun laws, I don’t have any particular problem with private ownership of firearms either.

    The only thing that really gets to me is the people who think they should be able to carry their gun(s) around with them in public (openly or otherwise), and the places that allow this and/or arm/propose to arm public figures like teachers and the like. The whole idea that random bystanders with guns in public make everyone safer is ludicrous imo.

    But I don’t have an issue with private gun ownership in itself, really…so I think Beto really gave himself an uphill battle with his guns remark. For what it’s worth.

  29. I didn’t see the debate but from the media reporting of it, what disengaged voters would be seeing is Democrats yet again talking about themselves and trying to out virtue signal each other. Not talking about the issues that impact people and their lives. So frustrating.

  30. [‘Mike Carlton Retweeted

    Bernard Keane

    @BernardKeane

    Hi Chris can you tell us when you’ll be launching the 100,000-word wave of hatchet jobs and hit pieces on James Murdoch for his “dishonest, desperate and distorted” description of your coverage?’]

  31. beguiledagain @ #1826 Wednesday, January 15th, 2020 – 8:33 pm

    ItzaDream says:
    As for Warren, I like her a lot, save her recklessly poorly funded medicare for all thoughts, which admittedly can be wound back and fine tuned.

    —————————————-oo————————

    I recognize that you agree with Warren’s medicare for all but suggest that her proposal would be “poorly funded.”

    That sounds suspiciously like the “it’s not sustainable” furphy that the right always resort to when the left come up with programs to assist the disadvantaged. I agree that it would be hard sell in the richest nation on the planet.

    Have you looked at Canada’s medicare for all. Canadians have not seen any hospital or medical bills for the past half century, specialists and tests included. It’s against the law for physicians who want to be paid, to bill patients .

    Almost everything is bulk billed including all medical care inside and outside of hospitals. No gaps, no co-payments, no credit cards.

    No two-tier private hospital system. No private health insurance for medical and hospital care.

    Private health insurance is only for “extras.”

    Once you’ve examined it, come and tell us how Canada has done it for more than 50 years and the country hasn’t gone to hell in a handcart.

    You know it might just be that medicare for all is less expensive in the long run. Apart from eliminating marketing costs, people are not discouraged from seeking medical attention because of the cost and the community is saved the costs of not dealing with issues before they become more expensive. Simples.

    I was only talking about the USA, and you cut my next two sentences :

    It’s not that I don’t agree with it. But, it’s the socialist policy that would sink her.

    I’ve worked in the health care sector here for 50 years, am well familiar with the Canadian system, but believe strongly that the USA is not ready for medicare for all, as much as you and I might believe in it

  32. Poroti

    The Evangelicals Who Pray for War With Iran

    …..Pompeo and Pence reportedly were the top officials pushing Trump to kill Soleimani. They’re also devout evangelicals and major allies of CUFI. ………………….2006 book, Jerusalem Countdown, Hagee imagined an elaborate scenario in which a U.S. or Israeli strike on Iran would trigger an “inferno [that] will explode across the Middle East, plunging the world toward Armageddon.” Faced with scrutiny over his apocalyptic theology, he strained to create a discrete image for his new political organization, insisting that his extensive writings on biblical prophecy about the Rapture and Second Coming were distinct from CUFI’s lobbying agenda.
    —————-
    To call that drivelling garbage “evangelical” (i.e. of the Gospels) is very wrong. This stuff is right wing American politics.

    Though i know political views can become like a religion.

    I bet these idiots cannot accept that human actions could cause global warming yet, supposedly, Americans engaging in their favourite pastime (waging war), can cause a supposed Divine event!!

    Barking mad!

  33. Maybe it would be better here if posters talked about – polls, politics, the issues facing the Nation and the wider world – not each other.

  35. a r @ #1828 Wednesday, January 15th, 2020 – 8:36 pm

    Cud Chewer @ #1565 Wednesday, January 15th, 2020 – 6:45 pm

    If you believe people like Michael Moore, people in the US aren’t a bunch of of gun toting lunatics. Its actually a small minority of people that possess the majority of firearms.

    It’s possible for that to be both true and false. True in the sense that most people aren’t gun toting lunatics and it’s only a small fringe group that’s really gung-ho about guns. Yet false in the sense that even people who don’t own guns still support the Second Amendment and/or the right of people who do want guns to buy and have them.

    Hell, I’m from there and while I’ve certainly never supported the GOP or the NRA and generally approve of Australia’s approach to gun laws, I don’t have any particular problem with private ownership of firearms either.

    The only thing that really gets to me is the people who think they should be able to carry their gun(s) around with them in public (openly or otherwise), and the places that allow this and/or arm/propose to arm public figures like teachers and the like. The whole idea that random bystanders with guns in public make everyone safer is ludicrous imo.

    But I don’t have an issue with private gun ownership in itself, really…so I think Beto really gave himself an uphill battle with his guns remark. For what it’s worth.

    This is interesting and I’m coming round to the belief that only to be born there is to understand this. Not so long ago, I had an exchange on a classic music blog with a Democrat woman in upstate New York about this. She simply couldn’t understand my position – let’s call it the Australian position – any more than I could understand hers, and her final desperate volley was ‘well, I bet you’ve never ever even owned a gun’, as some sort of pejorative.

  36. “ As for Warren, I like her a lot, save her recklessly poorly funded medicare for all thoughts, which admittedly can be wound back and fine tuned.”

    Obviously it depends on how it is done, but the assumption that Warren’s medicare for all would be a financial liability is not true. The USA already spends 17% of GDP on health. Almost any regulated central system would be cheaper. As with climate change, incumbents who milk the current system will try to demonise her. But honest economists will admit it is a good idea. For the cost of current US health insurance premiums, you could build a great public system. If Warren is smart enough to link reducing one to the other, and gets honestly reported it could be a vote winner.

  38. Cud Chewer says:
    Wednesday, January 15, 2020 at 7:38 pm

    Incidentally I have spent a lot of time in the US in the past and I’ve seen its gut-wrenching poverty and its absolutely idiotic economics and politics. Its why Howard and friends scared the shit out of me when they started talking about how we could emulate the US.

    Same
    LA , Washington state, Texas, Georgia, Alabama,Florida. The richest country in the world and the poverty. I will not go back. I do not want to hear that recording at LA airport again.

  39. Rakali @ #7003 Wednesday, January 15th, 2020 – 8:40 pm

    Poroti

    The Evangelicals Who Pray for War With Iran

    …..Pompeo and Pence reportedly were the top officials pushing Trump to kill Soleimani. They’re also devout evangelicals and major allies of CUFI. ………………….2006 book, Jerusalem Countdown, Hagee imagined an elaborate scenario in which a U.S. or Israeli strike on Iran would trigger an “inferno [that] will explode across the Middle East, plunging the world toward Armageddon.” Faced with scrutiny over his apocalyptic theology, he strained to create a discrete image for his new political organization, insisting that his extensive writings on biblical prophecy about the Rapture and Second Coming were distinct from CUFI’s lobbying agenda.
    —————-
    To call that drivelling garbage “evangelical” (i.e. of the Gospels) is very wrong. This stuff is right wing American politics.

    Though i know political views can become like a religion.

    I bet these idiots cannot accept that human actions could cause global warming yet, supposedly, Americans engaging in their favourite pastime (waging war), can cause a supposed Divine event!!

    Barking mad!

    “Though I know political views can become like a religion”.

    Religion is tribal politics, particularly in the US. I have yet to find any significant distinction.

  41. Written in 2015 but still applicable

    Australia was ready to act on climate 25 years ago, so what happened next?

    New book investigates how corporate interests and ideologues worked to make Australia doubt what it knew about climate change and its risks

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/planet-oz/2015/aug/06/how-australians-were-ready-to-act-on-climate-science-25-years-ago-and-what-happened-next

    “She says she wants Australians to be reminded of this forgotten history and how they were spun a story that rejected science and risk management in return for protecting the interests of the polluting industries.

    If as a society and as citizens we understand where we have been then we can more easily move on … and we can understand why there is such confusion and such a toxic debate that’s developed over a fairly simple story of risk management for the whole of society. If we know that, once, we thought differently and could do things differently, then we know we could do it again.

    For me, Taylor’s book shows how Australia could have acted on climate change a quarter of a century ago, but how corporate interests and economic ideologies not only stopped the clock on action, but wound it back.”

  45. Re Confessions @8:59.
    ”The problem with Warren’s health care plan is that she couldn’t explain how she would pay for it.”

    It’s only the left that get asked how they’re going to pay for stuff.

  47. Sad news in SA for Alex Gallacher who is on leave having chemo for lung cancer.

    “ Veteran Labor Senator Alex Gallacher has revealed he is battling cancer.

    The South Australian was this week granted extended leave while he undergoes treatment for lung cancer.”

  48. Fess

    The obvious thing for Warren to do is a reverse Howard and give a publicly funded healthcare option that allows people to opt out of their private health insurance. This will easily pay for it, save workers money, but end the gravy train for private insurers, who will hate it. So she should keep it vague till after the election IMO.

  49. Socrates @ #1836 Wednesday, January 15th, 2020 – 8:50 pm

    “ As for Warren, I like her a lot, save her recklessly poorly funded medicare for all thoughts, which admittedly can be wound back and fine tuned.”

    Obviously it depends on how it is done, but the assumption that Warren’s medicare for all would be a financial liability is not true. The USA already spends 17% of GDP on health. Almost any regulated central system would be cheaper. As with climate change, incumbents who milk the current system will try to demonise her. But honest economists will admit it is a good idea. For the cost of current US health insurance premiums, you could build a great public system. If Warren is smart enough to link reducing one to the other, and gets honestly reported it could be a vote winner.

    I don’t disagree Socrates, but again the next two sentences have been cut (I don’t disagree with it/ the USA will see socialism in bright lights), something I must pay attention to in framing my points.

    By recklessly poorly funded, I mean when she announced it, she was not in a position to sufficiently explain how much or from where the money was coming. Ducks lined up 101. I think in contrast Yang did a better job explaining how to cost his UBI, which he does/did with some humour. Humour, there’s a thing.

    Where was I –

    As for relying on honest economists, and you bet they are there (Krugman), you are overly optimistic. Labor was taught a lesson about robbing Peter to pay Paul. The Repugs would have a field day, and regardless of the financials, would scream socialism and communism not far behind, free Americans deprived of their right to get sick and die, and the gloating of Trump we suffer now would be nothing to what would come next.

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