Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor

A crash in Scott Morrison’s standing finds Labor edging ahead on voting intention, and Anthony Albanese taking the lead on preferred prime minister.

The first Newspoll for the year, and the third under the new YouGov online polling regime, finds Labor opening up a 51-49 lead, after they trailed 52-48 in the poll in early December. On the primary vote, the Coalition is down two to 40%, Labor up three to 36%, the Greens up one to 12% and One Nation down one to 4%. Perhaps more remarkably, Scott Morrison now trails Anthony Albanese as preferred prime minister by 43-39, after leading him 48-34 in the previous poll. The damage on Morrison’s personal ratings amounts to an eight point drop on approval to 37% and an eleven point rise on disapproval to 59%. Conversely, Albanese is up six on approval to 46% and down four on disapproval to 37%. The Australian’s report is here; the poll was conducted from Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1505.

UPDATE (Essential Research): The Guardian has numbers from the first Essential Research poll of the year, but they disappointingly offer nothing on voting intention. What they do provide is corroboration for Newspoll’s finding that Anthony Albanese has taken the lead over Scott Morrison as preferred prime minister, in this case at 39-36, which compares with a 44-28 lead to Morrison when Essential last asked the question in early November. We are told that Scott Morrison is up nine on disapproval to 52% and that Anthony Albanese is up four on approval to 43% – their respective approval and disapproval ratings will have to wait for the full Essential report, which will presumably be with us later today or tomorrow. UPDATE: Morrison is down five on approval to 40%, Albanese is up two on disapproval to 30%. Full report here.

Despite everything, the poll finds 32% approving of Morrison’s handling of the bushfire crisis, which may be related to the fact that his approval rating was down only three among Coalition voters. The Guardian tells us only that 36% strongly disapproved of Morrison’s performance, to which the less strong measure of disapproval will need to be added to produce an equivalent figure for the 32% approval. Fifty-two per cent disagreed that Australia had always had bushfires like those just experienced, and 78% believe the government had been unprepared for them. Efforts to shift blame to the states do not appear to have borne fruit: Gladys Berejiklian’s handling of the bushfires scored 55% approval among New South Wales respondents, while Daniel Andrews was on 58% (these numbers would have come from small sub-samples of around 300 to 400 respondents).

The poll also offers a timely addition to the pollster’s leaders attributes series. The findings for the various attributes in this serious invariably move en bloc with the leaders’ general standing, and Morrison is accordingly down across the board. However, a clear standout is his collapse from 51% to 32% for “good in a crisis”, on which he was up 10% the last time the question was posed in October. Other unfavourable movements related in The Guardian range from a six-point increase in “out of touch with ordinary Australians“ to 62% to a 12 point drop on “visionary” to 30%.

More on all this when the full report is published. The poll was conducted online from Tuesday to Sunday from a sample of 1081.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,417 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor”

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  5. Yep…

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/commentisfree/2020/jan/14/the-government-has-been-forced-to-talk-about-climate-change-so-its-taking-a-subtle-and-sinister-approach

    What does that mean? It means the next step in climate change denial – a step I joked grimly last month was not far away.

    Alas, it is no longer a joke.

    The new argument is that, yes climate change is probably to blame, but we can’t do anything about it, and anyway it’s too late now, so let’s “adapt”. And what does that adaptation involve? According to Morrison: “Building dams is key to that. Native vegetation management is key to that. Land clearing is key to that.”

    In other words doing the very things conservatives have been desirous of for the past century – building dams, reducing national parks and increasing land clearing.

    They will hand out grants to organisations and areas most electorally beneficial and all the while trumpet that they are dealing with the issue in a practical way, unlike the opposition which, they argue, will be trying to kill jobs.

    Conservatives hate dealing with the actual source of problems – they much prefer handing out the graft; which is appropriate when you realise climate change denialism is the biggest con in political and media history.

    And of course emissions will rise while they suggest they are actually being reduced.

    And of course admitting to climate change but then talking about “resilience” and “adaptation” is a strategy to shift the conversation away from emission reductions.

  9. Scott Morrison has been warned by Coalition MPs to avoid major changes to emissions reduction targets and revisiting Malcolm Turnbull’s failed national energy guarantee, as leading business and industry figures urge him to deliver a “stable” long-term energy policy, electrify Australia’s transport sector and introduce tougher green vehicle standards.

    After the Prime Minister vowed to make deeper cuts to emissions in the wake of the bushfire crisis, a cabinet minister told The Australian that Mr Morrison must maintain Coalition unity on climate and emissions targets.

    “If we go back to talking about climate or targets or anything, the only climate that will change will be the climate in the partyroom. It’ll blow the place up,” the senior MP said.

  10. Farmers and landholders in the drought-hit Southern Downs ­region of Queensland are furious over the lack of government and council opposition to a Chinese-owned company’s plan to mine nearly 100 million ­litres of local groundwater a year and sell it off, at a time when local towns are so dry they are ­relying on trucked-in water to keep their taps running.

    Southern Downs Regional Council last month voted to approve planned works associated with the project, which could take up to 96 million litres of water a year from an aquifer beneath the Cherrabah Resort near Warwick and truck it to the Gold Coast for commercial plastic bottling.

  11. steve davis @ #1909 Wednesday, January 15th, 2020 – 10:20 pm

    Scott Morrison has been warned by Coalition MPs to avoid major changes to emissions reduction targets and revisiting Malcolm Turnbull’s failed national energy guarantee, as leading business and industry figures urge him to deliver a “stable” long-term energy policy, electrify Australia’s transport sector and introduce tougher green vehicle standards.

    After the Prime Minister vowed to make deeper cuts to emissions in the wake of the bushfire crisis, a cabinet minister told The Australian that Mr Morrison must maintain Coalition unity on climate and emissions targets.

    “If we go back to talking about climate or targets or anything, the only climate that will change will be the climate in the partyroom. It’ll blow the place up,” the senior MP said.

    Damned if he does, damned if he doesn’t.

    Serves him right. He thought he could bluster and spin his way into the top job. He obviously didn’t remember/know/care that with great power comes great responsibility. How does that old saying go? Be careful what you ask for, as you might just get it.

  12. Hmmm. Developments in Moscow:

    In a televised speech before senior officials, Putin suggested amending Russia’s constitution to limit a future president to two terms in office – he has served four – tightening residency requirements for presidential candidates, and letting parliament choose candidates for prime minister and the cabinet, in effect weakening the presidency.

    Shortly after the speech, the prime minister, Dmitri Medvedev, said that Russia’s government would resign in full, allowing Putin to appoint new ministers as he embarks on a sweeping reshuffle of Russia’s leadership. Medvedev, who also announced his intention to step down, was appointed to a new position as the deputy chairman of Russia’s Security Council, which is headed by Putin.

    His move would allow Putin to appoint a new prime minister, potentially signalling whom he favours as a potential successor as president. It is not clear when the new prime minister will be named, and Putin has asked the current government to stay on until new ministers have been chosen.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jan/15/putin-calls-for-constitution-changes-that-would-weaken-successor

  14. Cud Chewersays:
    Thursday, January 16, 2020 at 12:55 am
    “You got me there Leon

    Except that they’ll have to stuff and mount the sheep to register them as voters..”

    Nope. Not the voters, just the candidate.

  16. Player One @10:05 PM
    “Oh, don’t worry – there will be no danger of any actual action on climate change. Just an apparent change of heart, and a new approach, taking the science ‘seriously’ … ‘for the sake of the nation’, doncha know.”

    Just a change of rhetoric to give lip-service to the issue. Tell denialists who actually believe their crap to pul their heads in. That plus claim to be addressing global heating on the basis of token actions. Tip another $100 million into the “Emission Reduction Fund” so mates can plant a few trees, that sort of thing.

  17. This would be the perfect excuse for Morrison to pretend a bit of empathy (and frankly, common sense) and lift Newstart.

    The Australian Council of Social Services (ACOSS) chief executive Cassandra Goldie told The New Daily that “any spike in the price of fresh food will obviously compound the financial hardship felt by people doing it tough”.

    “We know that people on the lowest incomes like Newstart go without essentials today because these payments are grossly inadequate to cover basic living costs,” she said.

    The government “must increase allowances like Newstart as soon as possible to stop people from spiralling into poverty and help them put food on the table”, Dr Goldie said.

    There is more that the government must urgently do to support people who have lost so much, as a result of these catastrophic fires.”

    Dr Goldie slammed the current disaster payment as “grossly inadequate, particularly for people on lower incomes with few assets and limited family or social support”.

    “The Disaster Recovery Allowance is also inadequate to cover basic living costs for people who have lost income as a result of the fires,” she said.

    “It is currently paid at the same rate as the paltry Newstart payment, which business, health, regional and community groups all agree needs to be increased.”

    https://thenewdaily.com.au/finance/consumer/2020/01/15/bushfires-fresh-food-prices-acoss/?utm_source=Adestra&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Morning%20News%20-%2020200116

  18. Tony Windsor
    @TonyHWindsor
    ·
    3m
    When will Australia develop a National Disaster strategy which has real guidelines and trigger points rather than political reactions that treat disasters as events that have to be managed rather than clear guidelines to cover all eventualities.

    There is no possible answer to this. 🙁

  20. New book portrays Trump as erratic, ‘at times dangerously uninformed’

    “A Very Stable Genius” — a 417-page book named after Trump’s own declaration of his superior knowledge — is full of similarly vivid details from Trump’s tumultuous first three years as president, from his chaotic transition before taking office to special counsel Robert S. Mueller III’s Russia investigation and final report.

    The story the authors unfurl, as they explain in the prologue, “is intended to reveal Trump at his most unvarnished and expose how decision-making in his administration has been driven by one man’s self-centered and unthinking logic — but a logic nonetheless.”

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/new-book-portrays-trump-as-erratic-at-times-dangerously-uninformed/2020/01/15/4d45bf44-370f-11ea-a01d-b7cc8ec1a85d_story.html

  24. Yep. Dams will fix our Climate Change problems:

    Water levels at NSW’s Burrendong Dam, which is three times bigger than Sydney Harbour, have dropped to a critical low of 1.6 per cent, with rain predicted for this weekend unlikely to help.

    When full, the dam contains more than a trillion litres of water and supplies local irrigators as well as towns such as Dubbo and Cobar, in the state’s Central West.

    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/it-should-be-scary-regional-nsw-dam-close-to-empty-20200115-p53rnz.html

  25. C@t

    Now there’s an idea. Would an android/robot PM show more empathy than Scomo? Or more honesty or logic than any of his ministers?

  26. ABC Breakfast attacking Burke with all the old questions about numbers and policy on CC. Why don’t they ever attack the gov on the same? (Don’t bother answering)

  30. “The one good thing you can say about Putin is that there is only one Putin and he is human.”

    Unlike Rupert, where there’s a dynasty.

  33. Mark Kenny @markgkenny
    ·
    1m
    The character of the Morrison Coalition Gov is being laid bare by the Deputy Nats Leader
    @senbmckenzie on @RNBreakfast
    right now. Dumb talking points and sophistry in the face of damning evidence to the contrary. #porkbarrelling No miracles needed – just pol interference

  34. Good morning Dawn Patrollers

    In a scathing report the Australian National Audit Office has found that the government used sporting grants as slush fund for re-election campaign. Not at all surprising with this mob!
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/government-used-sporting-grants-as-slush-fund-for-re-election-campaign-20200115-p53rrt.html
    Katie Burgess explains how the big novelty cheque from Georgina Downer sparked the ANAO investigation.
    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6581880/audit-sparked-by-georgina-downers-giant-novelty-cheque-uncovers-distribution-bias/?cs=14350
    And in similar vein the government is refusing to release documents relating to its trouble-plagued $200m regional grants program, claiming release would not inform debate on a “matter of public importance”.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/jan/15/government-refuses-to-release-briefings-for-trouble-plagued-200m-regional-grants-program
    John Hewson gives Morrison some sage advice over managing climate change.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/our-greatest-security-threat-is-climate-change-so-mobilise-the-adf-20200115-p53rm7.html
    The Grattan Institute says that the bushfire crisis might be the turning point on climate politics that Australian needs.
    https://theconversation.com/might-the-bushfire-crisis-be-the-turning-point-on-climate-politics-australian-needs-129442
    The Coalition’s decision to axe funding to a climate change adaptation research body in 2017 has left Australia “not well positioned” to deal with fires, the “silent killer” of drought and other global heating impacts, its director has said.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/jan/16/coalitions-axing-of-of-funding-to-climate-change-adaptation-body-condemned
    David Crowe tells us that Liberal backbenchers have stepped up calls for greater action on climate change ahead of talks of new policy measures within weeks, backing a blunt warning from a senior minister to “move on” from arguments about whether global warming is real.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/liberals-speak-out-to-back-science-minister-on-climate-change-action-20200115-p53rs1.html
    Amy Remeikis tells us what certain Coalition trogs have to say on the matter.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/jan/16/there-is-no-link-the-climate-doubters-within-scott-morrisons-government
    The outpouring of assistance from both domestic and overseas volunteers in fighting our bushfires has shown more spirit than our nation’s leaders, writes Noely Neate.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/volunteers-are-keeping-australians-safe-not-the-government,13487
    The bushfires make fiscal stimulus an even more urgent task for the Morrison government puts Greg Jericho.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/jan/16/the-bushfires-make-fiscal-stimulus-an-even-more-urgent-task-for-the-morrison-government
    Economic estimates don’t account for tragic bushfire toll explains John Quiggin.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/economic-estimates-dont-account-for-tragic-bushfire-toll,13490
    An exasperated John Birmingham debunks the rubbish arguments being put forward in support of not responding to climate change.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/politics/2020/01/15/climate-change-bushfires-john-birmingham/
    Peter Lewis reckons the poll surprise is that Scott Morrison’s popularity hasn’t taken an even bigger hit.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/jan/14/the-biggest-poll-surprise-is-that-scott-morrisons-popularity-hasnt-taken-an-even-bigger-hit
    Australia can no longer afford to have such an incompetent and disgraceful Federal Government writes Peter Henning.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/morrisons-government-has-trashed-its-right-to-govern,13491
    Tomago Aluminium has told the state government that rising energy prices could have a significant impact on its NSW operations, which uses 10 per cent of the state’s power.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/tomago-warns-state-government-that-energy-prices-will-hurt-nsw-plant-20200115-p53rs4.html
    Australia’s remarkable prosperity rests on a balancing act. It mines coal, natural gas and iron ore from a vulnerable landscape. It takes ever more money from China while allied with the U.S. military. The New Daily examines our balancing act.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/2020/01/16/bushfire-climate-change-coal/
    Andrew Galloway explains how tourism hot spots unaffected by the bushfire crisis have been hit with cancellation rates of more than 60 per cent as Australians decide to stay at home.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/tourism-industry-takes-1b-hit-as-australians-cancel-their-holidays-20200115-p53rr1.html
    Morrison is still defying the tide of external forces against thermal coal.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/pm-backs-resources-as-world-s-biggest-asset-manager-ditches-thermal-coal-20200115-p53rou.html
    Following on from the rather direct comments from the Aged Care Royal Commissioner, state health and aged care ministers say they are concerned by the federal government “rushing to privatise” aged care assessments for elderly Australians.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/states-hit-out-at-federal-government-s-rush-to-privatise-aged-care-assessments-20200115-p53rnt.html
    James Murdoch’s frustration at News Corp’s climate coverage reflects how peripheral he has become to the media empire he once seemed destined to control says Matthew Knott.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/james-murdoch-shows-news-corp-climate-criticism-goes-to-top-of-family-tree-20200115-p53rja.html
    The SMH editorial is concerned about what might happen in the West as a result of Trump’s action on Iran.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/middle-east/iran-s-tinderbox-can-burn-meddling-west-20200115-p53rrm.html
    Paul Haywood rites that staging tennis matches on a day when Victoria’s state Environment Protection Authority advised people to stay indoors and “avoid exercise” was not the smartest move Tennis Australia has made.
    https://www.smh.com.au/sport/tennis/tennis-australia-suddenly-on-the-wrong-side-of-history-20200115-p53rkd.html
    The letters to the SMH editor make for interesting reading as they see through Morrison so clearly.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/shift-in-climate-language-doesn-t-erase-insincerity-20200114-p53rgf.html
    John Warhurst opines that the Catholic Church has learned very few lessons when it comes to secrecy.
    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6580506/the-catholic-church-has-learned-few-lessons-when-it-comes-to-secrecy/?cs=14258
    Meanwhile Brisbane’s Catholic Archbishop has hit out at proposed laws that would compel Queensland priests to report the confessions of child abusers.
    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/queensland/brisbane-archbishop-slams-laws-to-compel-priests-to-report-child-abuse-20200115-p53rlq.html
    Melissa Cunningham outlines how a syphilis epidemic is hitting parts of Melbourne.
    https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/syphilis-epidemic-hits-melbourne-cbd-port-phillip-stonnington-and-moreland-20200113-p53r3h.html
    Matthew Knott reports that the US and China have declared an official truce in their two-year long trade war, signing a “phase one” trade deal at the White House.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/us-china-declare-trade-war-truce-with-phase-one-deal-20200116-p53ru9.html
    I think Stuart Robert has done more than enough to qualify him for nomination for “Arsehole of the Week”.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/jan/15/ndis-minister-claims-no-one-has-died-waiting-for-the-scheme-despite-agency-revealing-1279-deaths

    Cartoon Corner

    Andrew Dyson

    Matt Golding








    Alan Moir

    Cathy Wilcox

    David Pope

    Four posters for some great analogies to Morrison’s climate change pronouncements.




    Leak puts the boot into Turnbull.
    https://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/c0be682908cea9d355ac7c19297408ff?width=1024

    From the US








  40. Listening to BBC TV news – the presenter leading into an interview with wtte “We know climate change is real, and we know it is driven by human activity, and that it will only get worse if we don’t change…”

    In Australia, he’d be lynched for his lack of balance.

  42. And with apparently no comprehension of the irony:

    Michael McCormack
    @M_McCormackMP
    · 34m

    Schools, community groups & associations in regional areas across Queensland, New South Wales & Victoria can benefit from more than $55k allocated in round 3 of the @Inland_Rail Community Sponsorship & Donations program. Application form @ http://inlandrail.com.au/sponsorships. #RegionsMatter

  43. Morning all and thanks BK. The genius of Morrison’s ignoring requests for water bombing aircraft months ago is highlighted in these two stories.
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-01-16/bushfire-fighting-planes-unable-to-get-to-australia-from-canada/11871384

    And
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-01-15/firefighting-aircraft-delayed-by-international-disasters/11869676

    So Morrison has failed to deliver critical resources. Another promise broken. Rain may save Australia, but without it, we would have fires till March.

  44. Lizzie @ 6.06 am.

    “Trump promises the crowd two better dishwashers and they cheer. Do they even listen?”

    Does he mean electricity powered dishwashers or press ganging all the illegals into becoming dishwashers?

    Another thought; it’s a bit hard to picture a large sick bird washing the family dishes.

  46. Looks rather interesting

    Joseph A. Bondy
    @josephabondy
    ·
    12m
    Just finished taping our first live interview, with Rachel Maddow. (L to R,
    @josephabondy
    ,
    @maddow
    , Lev Parnas, Stephanie Schuman, Esq.
    @LeafLegal
    ). Tune in this evening, at 9:00pm. #LetLevSpeak #LevRemembers

  47. Leak puts the boot into Turnbull.

    What a turd he is. Puts the boot into the dud Abbott-Turnbull NBN but you know damned well he’d have been kicking the shit out of Labor’s proper NBN and cheering on the Libs “plan”.

  48. Those who should be the brunt of anger for the fed Libs/nats being in office , are the pro libs/nats corrupt media and those who were gullible and voted for Morrison and co.

  50. Paul Barratt
    @phbarratt
    ·
    10m

    Without letting McKenzie off the hook, MSM should be asking where was the Department Secretary in all of this. It is the Department that writes the cheques. Secretary should have advised McKenzie she had no power to reallocate funds in this way.

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