Welcome to the penultimate instalment of the Call of the Board series (there will be one more dealing with the territories), wherein the result of last May’s federal election are reviewed in detail seat by seat. Previous episodes dealt with Sydney (here and here), regional New South Wales, Melbourne, regional Victoria, south-east Queensland, regional Queensland, Western Australia and South Australia.
Today we look at Tasmania, which has long been noted as a law unto itself as far as federal electoral politics are concerned. The Liberals managed clean sweeps of the state amid poor national results in 1983 and 1984, and the state likewise went all-in for Labor at their losing elections in 1998 and 2001. The state’s form more recently, and especially last May, suggest a normalising trend – in this case, Labor’s defeats in the northern seats of Bass and Braddon were emblematic of their poor show in white, low-income regional Australia (and they can probably count themselves likely that Lyons wasn’t added to the list).
Conversely, another easy win for independent Andrew Wilkie in the central Hobart seat of Clark (formerly Denison) confirmed the uniquely green-left nature of that seat, while a predictable win for Labor in Franklin typified the party’s ongoing hold on low-income suburbia. It may be worth noting in all this that the state’s economic fortunes appear to be on an upswing, and that this coincides with one of its rare periods of Liberal control at state level. It’s tempting at this moment to speculate that the state has a big future ahead of it as a haven from climate change, with electoral implications as yet unforeseeable.
In turn:
Bass (LIBERAL GAIN 0.4%; 5.8% swing to Liberal): Bass maintained its extraordinary record with Labor’s defeat, changing hands for the eighth time out of ten elections going back to 1993. The latest victim of the curse of Bass was Ross Hart, who joins Labor colleagues Silvia Smith, Jodie Campbell and Geoff Lyons and Liberals Warwick Smith (two non-consecutive terms), Michael Ferguson and Andrew Nikolic on the roll call of one-term members. The only exception to the rule has been Michelle O’Byrne, who won the seat in 1998 and was re-elected in 2001, before losing out in 2004 and entering state politics in 2006. Labor also retained the seat in 2010, but their member at the time, Jodie Campbell, resigned after a single term.
Braddon (LIBERAL GAIN 3.1%; 4.8% swing to Liberal): Northern Tasmania’s other seat has been a slightly tougher nut for the Liberals since Sid Sidebottom ended 23 years of Liberal control in 1998, having been won for party since on three occasions: with Mark Baker’s win in 2004, as part of the famed forestry policy backlash against Labor under Mark Latham (who may have taken the episode to heart); with the heavy defeat of the Labor government in 2013, when it was won by former state MP Brett Whiteley; and now with Gavin Pearce’s win for the Liberals. Also in this mix was the Super Saturday by-election of July 28, 2018, at which the now-defeated Labor member, Justine Keay, was narrowly returned. Such was the attention focused on the Coalition’s weak result in the Queensland seat of Longman on the same day that few recognised what was a highly inauspicious result for Labor, whose 0.1% swing was notably feeble for an opposition party at a by-election. Much was made at that time of the performance of independent Craig Garland, who polled 10.6% at the by-election before failing to make an impression as a candidate for the Senate. Less was said about the fact that another independent, Craig Brakey, slightly exceeded Garland’s by-election result at the election after being overlooked for Liberal preselection. Both major parties were duly well down on the primary vote as compared with 2016, Liberal by 4.1% and Labor by 7.5%, but a much more conservative mix of minor party contenders translated into a stronger flow of preferences to the Liberals.
Clark (Independent 22.1% versus Labor; 4.4% swing to Independent): Since squeaking over the line at Labor’s expense after Duncan Kerr retired in 2010, independent Andrew Wilkie has been piling on the primary vote with each his three subsequent re-elections, and this time made it just over the line to a majority with 50.0%, up from 44.0% in 2016. This translated into a 4.4% increase in Wilkie’s margin over Labor after preferences. For what it’s worth, Labor picked up a 0.8% swing in two-party terms against the Liberals.
Franklin (Labor 12.2%; 1.5% swing to Labor): The tide has been flowing in Labor’s favour in this seat since Harry Quick seized it from the Liberals in 1993, which was manifested on this occasion by a 1.5% swing to Julie Collins, who succeeded Quick in 2007. This went against a national trend of weak results for Labor in outer suburbia, which was evidently only in that their primary vote fell by 2.9%. This was almost exactly matched by a rise in support for the Greens, whose 16.3% was the party’s second best ever result in the seat after 2010. The Liberals were down 4.0% in the face of competition from the United Australia Party, which managed a relatively strong 6.7%.
Lyons (Labor 5.2%; 1.4% swing to Labor): Demographically speaking, Lyons was primed to join the Liberal wave in low-income regional Australia. That it failed to do so may very well be down to the fact that the Liberals disassociated themselves mid-campaign with their candidate, Jessica Whelan, over anti-Muslim comments she had made on social media, and directed their supporters to vote for the Nationals. The Nationals duly polled 15.7%, for which there has been no precedent in the state since some early successes for the party in the 1920s. However, that still left them astern of Whelan on 24.2%. Labor member Brian Mitchell, who unseated Liberal one-termer Eric Hutchinson in 2016, was down 3.9% on the primary vote to 36.5%, but he gained 1.3% on two-party preferred after picking up around a quarter of the Nationals’ preferences. With a further boost from redistribution, he now holds a 5.2% margin after gaining the seat by 2.3% in 2016, but given the circumstances he will have a hard time matching that performance next time.
Mexicanbeemer @ #400 Friday, January 10th, 2020 – 3:33 pm
But! But! They are all ‘having a go!’ at Murdoch Land, and thus, ‘getting a go’. 😐
Kronomex:
Bowel cancer has standards …
poroti:
[‘Rupert also claims credit for Gough winning in 1972’]
He did support Gough in ’72 but as history shows, it didn’t last. I see he’ll turn 89 in March, but son Lachlan is rumoured to be as ruthless as his old man – and some.
Mexicanbeemer:
Exactly …
(though one must admire their chutzpah)
Mavis Davis:
Which of the two would you rather face in Court?
[‘Two giant bushfires in the south of NSW and Victoria have merged into a terrifying mega blaze.’]
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7871569/Two-bushfires-form-mega-blaze.html
E. G. Theodore:
[‘Which of the two would you rather face in Court?’]
Preferably neither.
ItzaDream @ #388 Friday, January 10th, 2020 – 3:22 pm
update on that from the local fire command, and for the record:
Active fire east of Penrose currently being water bombed. Winds NW gusting 40Km/hr which is good (for Penrose) but there is a southerly change coming through tonight “which is bad”. Enact survival plan. Leaving is best option.
”Bot and troll accounts are involved in a “disinformation campaign” exaggerating the role of arson in Australia’s bushfire disaster, social media analysis suggests.”
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/jan/08/twitter-bots-trolls-australian-bushfires-social-media-disinformation-campaign-false-claims
From a couple of days ago, may have been linked earlier.
Commonwealth Bank named the new owner of Shane Warne’s baggy green:
https://www.news.com.au/sport/cricket/shane-warne-baggy-green-auction-passes-half-a-million-dollars-with-just-over-12-hours-left/news-story/aa4ce7c3ecb7e0b4d42fc55577acb838
Mavis
I’ve read that quite a few times as well. Lachlan is as revolting as his dad and James is a nice guy. James’ wife works for the Clinton Climate Initiative.
Mark David’s back on the job.
”What strikes us is the number of accounts talking about arson and the denial of the link between climate change and the bushfires peaked yesterday and it seems like a classic move of a disinformation campaign,” Dr Keller told SBS News.
“These accounts are suspicious, they may be humans, they may to some degree be paid or coordinated and may fake authentic users … what we know is they are trying to spread a new narrative on the bushfire and climate change link.”
https://www.sbs.com.au/news/false-arson-claims-spread-on-social-media-amid-australian-bushfire-crisis
If these are are being paid or coordinated, the question is: “by whom?”.
NewsCorp might be more profitable in Australia if it didn’t outlay so much $$$ on its army of rabble-rousing columnists. But then again, they’re the major reason it produces newspapers at all.
Bad news tomorrow for southern NSW.
NSW RFS
@NSWRFS
· 18h
Fire Spread Prediction for Fri 10 Jan 2020. Severe to Extreme fire danger is forecast for parts of NSW tomorrow, incl southern areas of the state. These conditions will make fire behaviour erratic & dangerous. #nswrfs #nswfires
Aaaarrrggghhh!!! (I’d say the ‘f’ word but I need to be decorous 😉 ),
The Warrumbungles are being threatened now:
EMERGENCY WARNING
EMERGENCY WARNING – Yearinan Station Road, Bugaldie (Warrumbungle LGA)
Posted:10/01/2020 15:56
And all that creature who is our Prime Minister can say is that Climate Change makes a contribution to these fires!!!
How about, THE major contribution!?!
Diogenes:
[‘I’ve read that quite a few times as well. Lachlan is as revolting as his dad and James is a nice guy. James’ wife works for the Clinton Climate Initiative.’]
So have I. Although he doesn’t look as evil as his dad, he’s the anointed one after James stuffed up some investments. Another thing I’ve heard is that Lachlan may wind up The Oz, on the purported basis that it has never turned a profit – now that would be a good thing. Chuck in the DT and CM and it would be even better.
Trump says he trumps Abe Lincoln:
[‘At one point in the rally, Trump said that he was viewed more positively by Republicans in one poll than Abraham Lincoln.
“Who do you like better, Trump or Abraham Lincoln?” he said, recalling the survey question. Some in the crowd shouted out their answer: “Trump! Trump!” although many others did not join in, perhaps quiet Lincoln admirers.’]
https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/i-beat-abraham-lincoln-trump-opens-reelection-year-at-rally-in-ohio-20200110-p53qh9.html
RFS commissioner Shane Fitzsimmons and premier Gladys Berejiklian are speaking now.
They say that two new fires have sprung up – the emergency fire near Coonabarabran, and one in the Blue Mountains. Indications are both were started by lightning strikes, Fitzsimmons says.
______
God’s arson I presume. Read all about it on page 34 of The Australian tomorrow.
ItzaDream @ #395 Friday, January 10th, 2020 – 3:27 pm
I am so impressed with the work being done – RFS, police, pilots, medical, ambulance etc. Apologies to etc.
I’ve just been talking to my nephew in Canberra. Effing hot came the cry.
Cain’t wait for the conversation to sort out us plebs. So glad we got the Gummint we deserve. 😇
Rain is falling in the west of Victoria including Melbourne. Yet to reach where it is needed in east and north east of state.
WeatheronPB#
The Coonabarabran fires were started by lightning: Fitzimmons.
Is this normal or is Scrott and his holy roller spivs putting pork barrelling on some steroids ?
Volunteer Grants Activity – 2019-20 Volunteer Grants
4.1 Who is eligible to apply for a grant? To be eligible to apply you must:be invited to apply by your Federal Member of Parliament
————————————————-
2. How can I apply for the 2019-20 Volunteer Grants grant opportunity?
The 2019-20 grant round will be a two-phase process:
o Phase one: From 16 December 2019 to 21 February 2020, Members of Parliament (MPs) will be able to nominate organisations from within their electorate to apply for funding.
o Phase two: From 10 March 2020 to 6 April 2020, nominated organisations will be able to apply for funding.
https://www.communitygrants.gov.au/grants/volunteer-grants-activity-%E2%80%93-2019-20-volunteer-grants
lizzie @ #419 Friday, January 10th, 2020 – 4:36 pm
Mewscorp have conducted a comprehensive inquirypanelled by Janet Albrectsen, Miranda Devine and Chris Kenny and have found there is nothing to see here so are exhonerated.
The “Australian” of 1972 was nothing like this present mismatch of extreme right wing mouth pieces.
The opinion writers still with the Australian have sold their dignity and are loathed by many ex readers of the Australian.
Murdoch himself sold his loyalty.
So have I. Although he doesn’t look as evil as his dad, he’s the anointed one after James stuffed up some investments. Another thing I’ve heard is that Lachlan may wind up The Oz, on the purported basis that it has never turned a profit – now that would be a good thing. Chuck in the DT and CM and it would be even better.
______________________________
I’m sure the GG is kept on life support because the old man is sentimental – like keeping the first dollar bill earned framed on the wall.
I’m sure the rag has no value, sentimental or otherwise, for anyone else in the family.
Looks like Scrott and his thieving holy rollers and spivs are opening a new pork mine. From the previous years volunteer fund application.
——————————————
1. How can I apply for Volunteer Grants 2018?
You can apply online using the Volunteer Grants 2018 Application Form available on the GrantConnect and Community Grants Hub websites. Applicants must submit their applications by 2.00pm (AEST) on 18 September 2018.
https://www.communitygrants.gov.au/sites/default/files/documents/08_2018/Volunteer%20Grants%202018%20-%20Questions%20and%20Answers_1.pdf
“Not only are the fires giving off a huge amount of greenhouse gas emissions, but particles in the resulting dust and smoke can further trap heat within the atmosphere, heating the planet even more.“
https://futurism.com/the-byte/huge-australian-fires-could-change-entire-climate?utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_03cd0a26cd-4375436921-246014093&mc_cid=4375436921&mc_eid=9463efbc3a&utm_source=The%20Future%20Is&utm_campaign=4375436921-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2020_01_08_07_12
Mavis says:
Friday, January 10, 2020 at 2:31 pm
nath:
Friday, January 10, 2020 at 2:20 pm
Although you show sound research skills, people change their minds from time to time. You do it, I do it, and nearly everybody else does it save perhaps RI, who has consistently said, “We’re all fucked”.
As indeed we are.
We know about our circumstances. We know how to change them. Yet we cannot do it. We are on the cusp of destroying most life on the planet. The carbon cycle is not going to be stopped by wishful thinking or arguments. We are about to become spectators in our own destruction.
RI @ #431 Friday, January 10th, 2020 – 4:48 pm
You do realize that “It’s too late” is the final phase of climate change denial?
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97-per-cent/2013/sep/16/climate-change-contrarians-5-stages-denial
Wait – what was I thinking of … of course you do 🙁
Re GG @4:22PM. I think that was the prediction for today.
TPOF
Rupert would have framed a pound or even a guinea perhaps.
Boerwar says:
Friday, January 10, 2020 at 11:29 am
‘mundo says:
Friday, January 10, 2020 at 11:22 am
Socrates @ #149 Friday, January 10th, 2020 – 10:41 am
Dan Andrews is doing a great job filling in as national leader while the PM’s sense of responsibility is absent.
And the leader of the Quiet Party is busy being nice.’
Albanese is doing a good job during this national emergency, IMO.
Andrews is being a competent state premier. He has real power to deploy. The MSM has to cover what he says. He is doing a good job.
But opposition leaders have no power at all. None. They get the odd interview, they might get a few seconds on the MSM forums.
Comparing what Andrews can do with what Albanese can do is, I presume, a variation of Assassinate Albo and Kill Labor. This sly wafering trick is a constant from peeps like Mundo, Rex and nath. Slimey stuff, actually.
Their game is to disable Labor. They are Libs by any other name. They would rather run a mutiny than crew a ship with a Red flag.
Player One
Saw the 5 Stage of Climate Change Denial back in about 2006. Back then we were moving from stage 1 to stage 2 with occasional stage 3 sightings. 16 years later and I can feel the full Stage 5 coming in the not too distant future.
Steve777 @ #433 Friday, January 10th, 2020 – 4:53 pm
It’s also interesting how the alleged champion of free speach has removed the offending email from their servers. It never happened.
Player One,
Did you see my message about the professional association for B’n’B owners?
poroti @ #436 Friday, January 10th, 2020 – 4:59 pm
Yup. But the important thing to note is that it is simply not true. It is not too late.
Sure, we are looking at 2 degrees warming now “locked in”, and 3-4 degrees as “very likely”.
But there is still time, if we can get people to finally see the urgency and abandon their worship of fossil fuels. And, of course, coal has to be the first to go.
Greensborough Growler @ #437 Friday, January 10th, 2020 – 5:00 pm
Climate Change IS happening. However, I bet they regret they cannot pull the same sort of swift trick on the planet that they did on the email in order to get back to the business of generating profits for their companies and investments.
poroti @ #389 Friday, January 10th, 2020 – 3:22 pm
Aww youse dudes. I had to put my brain into gear- low range. I have been to Adelaide River – about 1957. Beautiful cemetery.
There was the story of the businessman who jumped on his bike and pedalling furiously was half way to the Alice before he discovered the chain was missing. I like fairy stories -🧚🧚 😇
Murdoch must be feeling the jitters, putting out a media release that sounds a bit defensive. He really will have to try harder to drown out anyone who talks about climate change. His hacks at the Oz, DT and elsewhere really must pull up their socks and apologise for nothing. The political future of Mr Hawaii Holiday depends on it.
Although the denialists are pulling out all stops to spread disinformation and outright lies by fair means and foul, it is possible that the events of the last couple of months might have powerfully energised those who fully accept the science but have not given climate and global warming issues the highest priority.
I read this on a wine blog – just a small paragraph in a much longer article dealing with the impact of the fires on vineyards and the 2020 harvest, which was not political. But the anger quite took me aback, especially in the context of the rest of the article.
“These unprecedented fires may also serve a higher purpose by pushing the deathly seriousness of climate change into the public consciousness. The tipping point that we so desperately need to budge out so much of the Murdoch press denialism bullshit.”
C@tmomma @ #438 Friday, January 10th, 2020 – 5:01 pm
Yes, sorry. I have been trying to find it, but no luck so far.
Anyway, we are not a “BnB”, we are just a “B”! 🙂
Player One says:
Friday, January 10, 2020 at 4:53 pm
RI @ #431 Friday, January 10th, 2020 – 4:48 pm
We are about to become spectators in our own destruction.
You do realize that “It’s too late” is the final phase of climate change denial?
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97-per-cent/2013/sep/16/climate-change-contrarians-5-stages-denial
Wait – what was I thinking of … of course you do
This is just wrong. I have subscribed to the analysis and predictions in relation to climate change since I first heard about it in the dim-lit past, 40-odd years ago. I still subscribe to it. Unlike nearly everyone else, my livelihood has already been destroyed by the effects of climate change. I know about this first hand.
I disagree with you about the politics. We’re fucked because we have not been able to get the politics right.
We’re also fucked because we’re out of time. The trajectories are pitiless. We are going to witness catastrophic destruction. Maybe there is just enough time left to save a remaining population. Maybe not.
In any case, there is just not enough of a commitment to act quickly and coherently. Through our weakness, we are condemning ourselves and most other life to oblivion. This is already developing in the marine environment, where hypoxia and anoxia are destroying species and becoming more widespread. The photosynthesising phytoplankton biomass is in deep decline. As it is extinguished, the earth will lose its main source of oxygen. This will kill nearly everything in time.
citizen @ #442 Friday, January 10th, 2020 – 5:04 pm
citizen
I’m just sitting here patiently waiting for all the Arsonists to turn up in court. I’m not holding my breath though. 🙂
Player One @ #444 Friday, January 10th, 2020 – 5:05 pm
Okay, I just knew there was one on the Central Coast.
Here’s a good image to start the inevitable “Morrison Downfall” meme.
RI @ #445 Friday, January 10th, 2020 – 5:05 pm
I like the way you start out by saying “This is just wrong”, and then go on to prove everything I said! 🙂
At this moment, we should spare a thought for all those Greeny Arsonists that have been falsely accused of igniting the fires started by lightning.