Welcome to the penultimate instalment of the Call of the Board series (there will be one more dealing with the territories), wherein the result of last May’s federal election are reviewed in detail seat by seat. Previous episodes dealt with Sydney (here and here), regional New South Wales, Melbourne, regional Victoria, south-east Queensland, regional Queensland, Western Australia and South Australia.
Today we look at Tasmania, which has long been noted as a law unto itself as far as federal electoral politics are concerned. The Liberals managed clean sweeps of the state amid poor national results in 1983 and 1984, and the state likewise went all-in for Labor at their losing elections in 1998 and 2001. The state’s form more recently, and especially last May, suggest a normalising trend – in this case, Labor’s defeats in the northern seats of Bass and Braddon were emblematic of their poor show in white, low-income regional Australia (and they can probably count themselves likely that Lyons wasn’t added to the list).
Conversely, another easy win for independent Andrew Wilkie in the central Hobart seat of Clark (formerly Denison) confirmed the uniquely green-left nature of that seat, while a predictable win for Labor in Franklin typified the party’s ongoing hold on low-income suburbia. It may be worth noting in all this that the state’s economic fortunes appear to be on an upswing, and that this coincides with one of its rare periods of Liberal control at state level. It’s tempting at this moment to speculate that the state has a big future ahead of it as a haven from climate change, with electoral implications as yet unforeseeable.
In turn:
Bass (LIBERAL GAIN 0.4%; 5.8% swing to Liberal): Bass maintained its extraordinary record with Labor’s defeat, changing hands for the eighth time out of ten elections going back to 1993. The latest victim of the curse of Bass was Ross Hart, who joins Labor colleagues Silvia Smith, Jodie Campbell and Geoff Lyons and Liberals Warwick Smith (two non-consecutive terms), Michael Ferguson and Andrew Nikolic on the roll call of one-term members. The only exception to the rule has been Michelle O’Byrne, who won the seat in 1998 and was re-elected in 2001, before losing out in 2004 and entering state politics in 2006. Labor also retained the seat in 2010, but their member at the time, Jodie Campbell, resigned after a single term.
Braddon (LIBERAL GAIN 3.1%; 4.8% swing to Liberal): Northern Tasmania’s other seat has been a slightly tougher nut for the Liberals since Sid Sidebottom ended 23 years of Liberal control in 1998, having been won for party since on three occasions: with Mark Baker’s win in 2004, as part of the famed forestry policy backlash against Labor under Mark Latham (who may have taken the episode to heart); with the heavy defeat of the Labor government in 2013, when it was won by former state MP Brett Whiteley; and now with Gavin Pearce’s win for the Liberals. Also in this mix was the Super Saturday by-election of July 28, 2018, at which the now-defeated Labor member, Justine Keay, was narrowly returned. Such was the attention focused on the Coalition’s weak result in the Queensland seat of Longman on the same day that few recognised what was a highly inauspicious result for Labor, whose 0.1% swing was notably feeble for an opposition party at a by-election. Much was made at that time of the performance of independent Craig Garland, who polled 10.6% at the by-election before failing to make an impression as a candidate for the Senate. Less was said about the fact that another independent, Craig Brakey, slightly exceeded Garland’s by-election result at the election after being overlooked for Liberal preselection. Both major parties were duly well down on the primary vote as compared with 2016, Liberal by 4.1% and Labor by 7.5%, but a much more conservative mix of minor party contenders translated into a stronger flow of preferences to the Liberals.
Clark (Independent 22.1% versus Labor; 4.4% swing to Independent): Since squeaking over the line at Labor’s expense after Duncan Kerr retired in 2010, independent Andrew Wilkie has been piling on the primary vote with each his three subsequent re-elections, and this time made it just over the line to a majority with 50.0%, up from 44.0% in 2016. This translated into a 4.4% increase in Wilkie’s margin over Labor after preferences. For what it’s worth, Labor picked up a 0.8% swing in two-party terms against the Liberals.
Franklin (Labor 12.2%; 1.5% swing to Labor): The tide has been flowing in Labor’s favour in this seat since Harry Quick seized it from the Liberals in 1993, which was manifested on this occasion by a 1.5% swing to Julie Collins, who succeeded Quick in 2007. This went against a national trend of weak results for Labor in outer suburbia, which was evidently only in that their primary vote fell by 2.9%. This was almost exactly matched by a rise in support for the Greens, whose 16.3% was the party’s second best ever result in the seat after 2010. The Liberals were down 4.0% in the face of competition from the United Australia Party, which managed a relatively strong 6.7%.
Lyons (Labor 5.2%; 1.4% swing to Labor): Demographically speaking, Lyons was primed to join the Liberal wave in low-income regional Australia. That it failed to do so may very well be down to the fact that the Liberals disassociated themselves mid-campaign with their candidate, Jessica Whelan, over anti-Muslim comments she had made on social media, and directed their supporters to vote for the Nationals. The Nationals duly polled 15.7%, for which there has been no precedent in the state since some early successes for the party in the 1920s. However, that still left them astern of Whelan on 24.2%. Labor member Brian Mitchell, who unseated Liberal one-termer Eric Hutchinson in 2016, was down 3.9% on the primary vote to 36.5%, but he gained 1.3% on two-party preferred after picking up around a quarter of the Nationals’ preferences. With a further boost from redistribution, he now holds a 5.2% margin after gaining the seat by 2.3% in 2016, but given the circumstances he will have a hard time matching that performance next time.
https://www.smh.com.au/interactive/2020/behind-the-lens/live/index.html
thnks peg.
Confessions @ #347 Friday, January 10th, 2020 – 2:38 pm
Yes it’s my place and one of my boundary fences. It’s so beautifully touching I could cry. The two of them, a resolved weariness, the big dozer, the fuel load built up, my fence post, the little white flags marking the ‘silent dog’ fence we put up when the little brown Kelpie was exploring too far …
guytaur:
Friday, January 10, 2020 at 2:39 pm
Thanks. Very graphic, and a stark warning to those who still think GH is a hoax.
‘Mavis says:
Friday, January 10, 2020 at 2:08 pm
Boerwar:
Friday, January 10, 2020 at 1:58 pm
It really is scary stuff. The smoke haze per se in Canberra must be horrific, not yet (and hopefully not) taking the actual fires into account. I wish you & yours well given where you live.’
Thank you. The air was pretty good after a lengthy northwesterly air flow. The grandkids could even go outside for a while.
Itza:
That is beautiful, thanks for sharing.
Boerwar:
Friday, January 10, 2020 at 2:47 pm
🙂
Ah, the Reply All to the All Staff Email – brave NewsCorp employee is our Emily…
I see a bit of a childish tweet storm tantrum brewing from The Donald has he works himself into a lather of petulance and anger at “Nasty” Nancy daring to TELL him what to do. What’s the bet he tries to find out who the three “Non-Trumpers” that dared go against him as well.
https://www.vox.com/2020/1/9/21057397/house-iran-war-powers-vote-donald-trump-nancy-pelosi-elissa-slotkin-tim-kaine
‘E. G. Theodore says:
Friday, January 10, 2020 at 2:38 pm
When the Japs attacked Darwin, did Australia respond by “having conversation” about it?’
I don’t think there was a whole lot of discussion. The Adelaide River Handicap organized itself in a flash:
https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/FlagPost/2017/February/Bombing_of_Darwin
Emily Townsend was brave writing that email.No doubt she will be looking for another job soon.
What a picture!
ItzaD
Lovely human post from the front lines. Best wishes.
guytaur @ #351 Friday, January 10th, 2020 – 1:39 pm
Thanks GT
The 1.38 video montage at the end is powerful stuff
sprocket:
Wow, good for her for resigning!
lizzie says:
Friday, January 10, 2020 at 2:46 pm
Ben Eltham
@beneltham
·
59m
I see that the champions of free speech over at News Corp have deleted an uncomfortable email from all the staff inboxes. It’s almost like they’re a bit worried about how people see their decades-long campaign of climate denialism
__________________________________
As we all know, there is no greater champion of freedom of speech than News Corp – but only as far as it is freedom of speech approved by Murdoch and his family.
Plenty of Murdoch “bowel cancer” press in the UK .
‘Pegasus says:
Friday, January 10, 2020 at 1:46 pm
Indigenous woman dies in custody in Victoria two days after being refused bail’
An Indigenous woman friend of mine is inside in Vic. I was relieved when the sentence got to ‘…after being refused bail.’
My friend has been tried, convicted and sentenced, so bail is not an issue. Parole will be the next key word. But it will take some years because of the non parole period.
From CNN
“Tennis star Nick Kyrgios has said Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison was “far too slow” reacting to the wildfires devastating large parts of the country and has described addressing the climate crisis as an “urgent” matter.
A leading voice in his sport’s drive to help raise money for relief efforts, Kyrgios last week pledged to donate $140 ($200 AUSD) for every ace he hits at upcoming tournaments — a deed which has sparked similar gestures from fellow players and tournament organizers in the country.
Writing in AthletesVoice, the world No. 29 said: “As the leader of our country, I don’t think Scott Morrison has done enough to be honest.”
regretting not “doing something sooner,” Kyrgios said he was now intent on using his platform to make a difference.
“These fires have been burning since September and I was seeing people being affected by this disaster every day, feeling helpless,” he said.
“I realize now that I’m blessed to have the platform that I do, so I can help make a difference because there are many things that are more important than sport. That’s what I choose to focus on.
“My biggest inspiration this summer is our firefighters. They’re the most important people we have on our side right now. They put my job as a tennis player into perspective, that’s for sure.
“Seeing what they have to deal with out there, I don’t think our firefighters will ever receive enough praise. They’re putting it all on the line for every Australian, for our country and for our animals. There’s no greater example of selflessness than that.”
Kate
Looks as if Scomo may not be able to rely on the tennis vote. Now all we need is for someone from the Sharks to speak up!!
sprocket_ @ #359 Friday, January 10th, 2020 – 1:50 pm
The last sentence crushes all hope. Emily missed that the reason there’s a misinformation campaign, misrepresentations, and lies in the first place is precisely because Dear Leader has already done exactly as she’s asked.
The Canberra fires of 2003 burned for a week from about 11 Jan and killed four people, injured around 490 people, and destroyed around 470 houses on 18 Jan. That fire came from the west.
The fires to the west of us have been burning for over a week and tonight are expect to burn most of the way across the southern end of the ACT, still a good distance from the suburban areas of the ACT.
As long as Smokocchio has got Murdochs vote,he is as safe as a safe.
Many of those living in Melbourne, Sydney & Canberra (and other localities) who’ve been exposed to so much smoke and those who’ve lost loved ones, friends, property will not I think forget or forgive the 6 1/2 years the Tories have sat on their hands, denying global heating. That’s about the only positive that may emerge from this crisis, Garnaut correctly predicting the outcome of denying the science. And to think that the de facto Minister for Denying Climate Science Craig Kelly is still denying it to a huge audience is mind-boggling.
Boerwar @ #364 Friday, January 10th, 2020 – 2:52 pm
Thanks Bw. They wanted us out, so I’m in Sydney, while they have volunteered to defend us and the way we, and they, live – together, in the bush.
Every election since 1974 Murdoch has dictated who would be PM in Australia and they have won, except for Julia Gillard in 2010 and he demolished her for it.
ItzaD
Fingers crossed.
By way of light relief I see that there is hot spot near Snowball, in NSW.
News Australia Holdings revenue over 5 years = $13.9B, taxable income = $246M, tax = zero. Source ATO corporate tax data.
“Plenty of Murdoch “bowel cancer” press in the UK .” Does that mean he may have bowel cancer or that he is the bowel cancer hiding within the guts of the UK, or any country for that matter that his grubby media is located?
ItzaDream
Friday, January 10th, 2020 – 2:25 pm
Comment #339
Good photo. Excellent report. Thanks. Best wishes. 😎
steve davis says:
Friday, January 10, 2020 at 3:13 pm
News Australia Holdings revenue over 5 years = $13.9B, taxable income = $246M, tax = zero. Source ATO corporate tax data.
———————-
Corporation tax is not based on revenue but is based on profit.
He is the bowel cancer hiding within the guts of the UK, or any country for that matter that his grubby media is located?”is what Mike Carlton was probably getting at.
Corporation tax is not based on revenue but is based on profit.
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But with multinationals there is profit and there is “profit”.
Boerwar
Those fires west of the ACT have noticeably pick up moved east today. A bit of a worry as it’s a difficult area to access.
BK
But with multinationals there is profit and there is “profit”.
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As i wrote the other day i am more than happy to support reforming the tax act but corporation tax rightly or wrongly is not based on revenue.
Boerwar @ #379 Friday, January 10th, 2020 – 3:11 pm
Ha.
fyi, what I think is happening our way is that the Wingello fire has been slowly creeping east (it’s alarmingly close to us now) in cool misty weather, and their plan seems to be to let it crawl, in a controlled back burn sort of way, till it peters out (not likely) or meets the containment lines where they can meet and fight it if necessary. Today is hot, and it all depends on this evening’s southerly and the winds.
Boerwar
😆 Yes, I was going to say definitely not until after they stopped running but the Adelaide River Handicap says it so much better.
As i wrote the other day i am more than happy to support reforming the tax act but corporation tax rightly or wrongly is not based on revenue.
_____
I have not said otherwise. The use of transfer pricing and various inter-company charges puts the profit into low taxing jurisdictions.
steve davis:
[‘Every election since 1974 Murdoch has dictated who would be PM in Australia and they have won, except for Julia Gillard in 2010 and he demolished her for it.’]
And although not as perverse as News Corp, the only time I can recall Fairfax supporting a Labor PM was Gough in ’72, and even then it was faint praise, though it may’ve also backed Rudd in 2007. This is the Murdoch in ’72:
https://whitlamdismissal.com/1972/11/25/the-australian-editorial-its-time.html
steve davis
“Every election since 1974 Murdoch has dictated who would be PM in Australia and they have won, except for Julia Gillard in 2010 and he demolished her for it.”
Rather than being cause and effect, I think Murdoch is a bandwagon-jumper.
The Murdoch press’s vilification of Gillard was stomach-churningly awful.
Some local chambers of commerce are useless as they only look after the interests of a select few on it.
If you can meet with other similar accommodation suppliers and do combined coordinated appeals you may have a better chance.
Player One,
This comment by Boris reminds me of something you may already be aware of, but I’l tell you anyway. 🙂
There is a professional organisation that represents B’n’Bs. Maybe you should contact their local representative in your area.
steve davis
Rupert also claims credit for Gough winning in 1972.
KayJay @ #382 Friday, January 10th, 2020 – 3:13 pm
The lad driving the big dozer was so laconic. Classic. You’d have loved him. It seemed so big and powerful, but then so small and useless against the bigness of everything else.
BK
That is a big problem that needs reform and that is where tariffs could be a possible solution as they can apply on the way in or on the way out.
Kakuru
He didnt bandwagon Shorten partly because Shorten refused to meet him.Also this time round he would be like the “cat that got the cream”after Shorten was ahead in so many polls before the election and he still pulled it off on the dopey,disengaged public.
Mexicanbeemer
In a whole raft of situations the government can and does deem certain things such as interest. They should be able to do the same for COGS when it comes to multinationals.
BK
As the local boss of a multinational I worked for said to staff outlining the next year’s plans after a profit that year, the second in decades, “First thing we will do is sack the accountants” (much larfter ensuing).
The thing that annoys me most with Murdoch is his papers than run hard against people on the dole yet they are not even paying tax.