Call of the board: Tasmania

Some overdue insights into what went wrong for Labor in Tasmania, whose five seats accounted for two of the party’s five losses at the federal election.

Welcome to the penultimate instalment of the Call of the Board series (there will be one more dealing with the territories), wherein the result of last May’s federal election are reviewed in detail seat by seat. Previous episodes dealt with Sydney (here and here), regional New South Wales, Melbourne, regional Victoria, south-east Queensland, regional Queensland, Western Australia and South Australia.

Today we look at Tasmania, which has long been noted as a law unto itself as far as federal electoral politics are concerned. The Liberals managed clean sweeps of the state amid poor national results in 1983 and 1984, and the state likewise went all-in for Labor at their losing elections in 1998 and 2001. The state’s form more recently, and especially last May, suggest a normalising trend – in this case, Labor’s defeats in the northern seats of Bass and Braddon were emblematic of their poor show in white, low-income regional Australia (and they can probably count themselves likely that Lyons wasn’t added to the list).

Conversely, another easy win for independent Andrew Wilkie in the central Hobart seat of Clark (formerly Denison) confirmed the uniquely green-left nature of that seat, while a predictable win for Labor in Franklin typified the party’s ongoing hold on low-income suburbia. It may be worth noting in all this that the state’s economic fortunes appear to be on an upswing, and that this coincides with one of its rare periods of Liberal control at state level. It’s tempting at this moment to speculate that the state has a big future ahead of it as a haven from climate change, with electoral implications as yet unforeseeable.

In turn:

Bass (LIBERAL GAIN 0.4%; 5.8% swing to Liberal): Bass maintained its extraordinary record with Labor’s defeat, changing hands for the eighth time out of ten elections going back to 1993. The latest victim of the curse of Bass was Ross Hart, who joins Labor colleagues Silvia Smith, Jodie Campbell and Geoff Lyons and Liberals Warwick Smith (two non-consecutive terms), Michael Ferguson and Andrew Nikolic on the roll call of one-term members. The only exception to the rule has been Michelle O’Byrne, who won the seat in 1998 and was re-elected in 2001, before losing out in 2004 and entering state politics in 2006. Labor also retained the seat in 2010, but their member at the time, Jodie Campbell, resigned after a single term.

Braddon (LIBERAL GAIN 3.1%; 4.8% swing to Liberal): Northern Tasmania’s other seat has been a slightly tougher nut for the Liberals since Sid Sidebottom ended 23 years of Liberal control in 1998, having been won for party since on three occasions: with Mark Baker’s win in 2004, as part of the famed forestry policy backlash against Labor under Mark Latham (who may have taken the episode to heart); with the heavy defeat of the Labor government in 2013, when it was won by former state MP Brett Whiteley; and now with Gavin Pearce’s win for the Liberals. Also in this mix was the Super Saturday by-election of July 28, 2018, at which the now-defeated Labor member, Justine Keay, was narrowly returned. Such was the attention focused on the Coalition’s weak result in the Queensland seat of Longman on the same day that few recognised what was a highly inauspicious result for Labor, whose 0.1% swing was notably feeble for an opposition party at a by-election. Much was made at that time of the performance of independent Craig Garland, who polled 10.6% at the by-election before failing to make an impression as a candidate for the Senate. Less was said about the fact that another independent, Craig Brakey, slightly exceeded Garland’s by-election result at the election after being overlooked for Liberal preselection. Both major parties were duly well down on the primary vote as compared with 2016, Liberal by 4.1% and Labor by 7.5%, but a much more conservative mix of minor party contenders translated into a stronger flow of preferences to the Liberals.

Clark (Independent 22.1% versus Labor; 4.4% swing to Independent): Since squeaking over the line at Labor’s expense after Duncan Kerr retired in 2010, independent Andrew Wilkie has been piling on the primary vote with each his three subsequent re-elections, and this time made it just over the line to a majority with 50.0%, up from 44.0% in 2016. This translated into a 4.4% increase in Wilkie’s margin over Labor after preferences. For what it’s worth, Labor picked up a 0.8% swing in two-party terms against the Liberals.

Franklin (Labor 12.2%; 1.5% swing to Labor): The tide has been flowing in Labor’s favour in this seat since Harry Quick seized it from the Liberals in 1993, which was manifested on this occasion by a 1.5% swing to Julie Collins, who succeeded Quick in 2007. This went against a national trend of weak results for Labor in outer suburbia, which was evidently only in that their primary vote fell by 2.9%. This was almost exactly matched by a rise in support for the Greens, whose 16.3% was the party’s second best ever result in the seat after 2010. The Liberals were down 4.0% in the face of competition from the United Australia Party, which managed a relatively strong 6.7%.

Lyons (Labor 5.2%; 1.4% swing to Labor): Demographically speaking, Lyons was primed to join the Liberal wave in low-income regional Australia. That it failed to do so may very well be down to the fact that the Liberals disassociated themselves mid-campaign with their candidate, Jessica Whelan, over anti-Muslim comments she had made on social media, and directed their supporters to vote for the Nationals. The Nationals duly polled 15.7%, for which there has been no precedent in the state since some early successes for the party in the 1920s. However, that still left them astern of Whelan on 24.2%. Labor member Brian Mitchell, who unseated Liberal one-termer Eric Hutchinson in 2016, was down 3.9% on the primary vote to 36.5%, but he gained 1.3% on two-party preferred after picking up around a quarter of the Nationals’ preferences. With a further boost from redistribution, he now holds a 5.2% margin after gaining the seat by 2.3% in 2016, but given the circumstances he will have a hard time matching that performance next time.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,795 comments on “Call of the board: Tasmania”

  1. Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said at a press conference Thursday that intelligence from multiple sources indicates that an Iranian surface-to-air missile caused the crash of a Ukrainian-operated Boeing 737-800 near Tehran earlier this week.

    Why it matters: The crash, which occurred the same night that Iran launched missile attacks against Iraqi military bases that house U.S. troops, resulted in the death of all 176 passengers on board, including at least 63 Canadians. Trudeau says the downing of the airliner may have been “unintentional.”

    When a reporter asked Thursday if the U.S. is partly responsible for the crash due to the escalation of tensions with Iran, Trudeau stressed the need for a full investigation and said: “I think that’s one of the many questions that people will be thinking about and trying to find answers to.”

    Iran has said they are currently holding onto the plane’s black boxes, but they will likely grant Ukrainian investigators access — potentially providing crucial information on the circumstances surrounding the crash.
    Trudeau said Canada confirmed the new intelligence over the course of Wednesday night and Thursday morning.

    https://www.axios.com/iran-plane-crash-ukrainian-investigation-missile-strike-9a38ce58-1d07-4ea7-9ac5-eb15a4d8983c.html?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=organic&utm_content=1100

  2. Spence @10:39 (previous thread).
    “Labor and Greens don’t have to work out their differences. They just need to campaign for their own policies and not get into debate about what will happen after the next election or spend energy attacking each other. That is not easy as some of the spear throwers on each side prefer attacking each other in a particularly counter productive way than doing the hard yards of explaining why LNP policies are against the interests of most people.”

    +++1

  3. Hi William, another great post. Worth pointing out that Darwin was the old name for Braddon, though – Lyons was formerly Wilmot and was won by the Country Party in 1922 and 1925.

  4. After reading this excellent article by Simon Jenkins in The Guardian:

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/jan/09/donald-trump-rant-iran-dying-empire-nato

    And this:

    Donald Trump does not strut the world stage as Augustus triumphant. On Wednesday he might have commanded that “Iran will never be allowed to have a nuclear weapon … we will never let that happen”. But as he slurred at his autocue, he conveyed only ritualised abuse of Iran and pleas to Nato for help, a Nato he once majestically derided. I sensed we were seeing the US’s days as world hegemon dribbling away.

    It got me to thinking that Donald Trump is America’s Boris Yeltsin. A conniving fool who spent his best days getting into the position he had craved to be in all his life, but now there, a rapidly diminishing figure, and all his own fault. For reasons we will no doubt find out about after he is gone and the truth comes out in one of the many books that will be written to cash in on his infamy.

  5. Thanks William for the Tasmania Ananylis.

    and thanks BK for the Dawn Patrol.

    This item from the BK Files has left me searching EBay for a “Tongues Translator” – I have no idea what the blockquoted section means.

    David Crowe reports that Morrison has said Australia will play “whatever constructive role we can” after the US President called on other countries to “break away” from the 2015 Iran nuclear deal.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/australian-troops-stay-in-iraq-despite-missile-attacks-20200109-p53q4r.html

    “Australia is very committed to nuclear non-proliferation and particularly when it can get to the position of being weaponised to the extent that it appears that they have been seeking to achieve,” Mr Morrison said.

    “So it’s important that we counter that threat and we’ll play whatever constructive role we can do to achieve that. From where we’re sitting, my own view is I think the President has summed up where it sits for now quite well.”

    I will ponder the hidden meaning within the “Easter Eggs” doubtless hidden within the words and easily understood by the enlightened ones but leaving the ordinary reader confused.

    Perhaps watering my pot plants will make all things clear again. 🚿🌷🥀

  6. From previous thread.

    Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    David Crowe reports that Morrison has said Australia will play “whatever constructive role we can” after the US President called on other countries to “break away” from the 2015 Iran nuclear deal.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/australian-troops-stay-in-iraq-despite-missile-attacks-20200109-p53q4r.html
    And Crowe wonders if a damaged PM rise from the ashes.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/can-a-damaged-pm-rise-from-the-ashes-20200109-p53q6r.html
    Twiggy Forrest has moved to clarify his stance on climate change after pointing to arson as a big contributor to this summer’s devastating fire season.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/mining-magnate-andrew-forrest-announces-70-million-for-bushfire-recovery-and-long-term-resilience-20200109-p53q38.html
    Simon Holmes à Court declares that when it comes to emissions, the ‘too small to matter’ argument is absurd, reckless and morally bankrupt.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/jan/09/when-it-comes-to-emissions-the-too-small-to-matter-argument-is-absurd-reckless-and-morally-bankrupt
    Things are looking dire in Kangaroo Island this morning.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/jan/09/kangaroo-island-fire-roars-back-as-wind-change-intensifies-threat-to-parndana-and-vivonne-bay
    IT manager and crew leader Alastair Breingan tells us that the FRS’s current communication and computing equipment is obsolete and presents serious problems both for a brigade and its fire control centre, which will only get worse as fires get more frequent, larger and more complex. This applies to all phases of a callout. He makes some good suggestions, some of which are already in place in SA.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/obsolete-technology-is-blinding-the-rural-fire-service-20200108-p53pps.html
    Australia is built on lies, so why would we be surprised about lies about climate change asks Luke Pearson.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/jan/10/australia-is-built-on-lies-so-why-would-we-be-surprised-about-lies-about-climate-change
    Due to political incompetence leading to the devastation of our country, Australians are becoming increasingly vocal against the Morrison Government, writes Peter Henning.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/in-the-name-of-australias-future-the-morrison-government-must-go,13473
    Denial is at the heart of PM Scott Morrison’s delusional refusal to treat the cancer of climate change writes professor of medicine David Shearman.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/life/science/environment/2020/01/09/denial-climate-change-scott-morrison/
    In quite an interesting contribution researcher Marc Hudson is overwhelmed by déjà vu watching our politicians fumble through the bushfire crisis.
    https://theconversation.com/watching-our-politicians-fumble-through-the-bushfire-crisis-im-overwhelmed-by-deja-vu-129338
    News Corp columnist Miranda Devine has added to the spread of misinformation by falsely blaming the Greens for our bushfire crisis, writes Nick Goldie.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/the-truth-behind-miranda-devines-attack-on-the-greens,13470
    Dana McCauley reports that Labor wants school students in bushfire zones to get trauma counselling when they go back to school, with psychologists warning a significant minority of children will have ongoing problems.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/labor-calls-on-morrison-to-roll-out-bushfire-trauma-counsellors-in-schools-20200109-p53q1j.html
    Australia’s grid operator has likened this summer’s catastrophic bushfire season to New York’s Hurricane Sandy, saying the crisis exposes major risks.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/like-new-york-after-sandy-bushfires-expose-major-power-grid-risks-20200109-p53q5o.html
    And Noel Towell writes that Victoria’s state Labor government will sign off on deep new emission cut targets by the end of Australia’s horror bushfire summer, with potential reductions of up to 40 per cent likely to put pressure on the state’s ageing coal-fired power plants.
    https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/climate-andrews-eyes-deepest-carbon-cuts-yet-20200109-p53q4f.html
    The Pentagon is preparing to announce that it is “highly likely” a passenger jet that crashed shortly after take-off in Iran, killing all 176 people on board, was actually shot down by Iranian surface-to-air missiles. (Just breaking is Justin Trudeau confirming it.)
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/ukraine-passenger-jet-was-likely-shot-down-by-iran-pentagon-20200110-p53q9l.html
    As the president slurred ritualised abuse of Iran and pleas to NATO, we saw the US’s days as world hegemon dribbling away declares Simon Jenkins.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/jan/09/donald-trump-rant-iran-dying-empire-nato
    It’s horrible to say it but there probably won’t be too many tears shed over this incident in Melbourne.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/victoria/underworld-figure-nabil-maghnie-shot-dead-in-melbourne-s-north-20200109-p53q9b.html
    A public backlash to the royal couple’s walk-out has already begun. And the Duchess is a prime target in a manner typical of much of the UK press.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/prince-harry-s-attempt-to-protect-meghan-will-make-her-a-target-for-hatred-20200109-p53pz7.html
    No wonder Harry and Meghan are quitting. The rightwing press – and their families – left them no choice writes Hadley Freeman.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/jan/09/no-wonder-harry-and-meghan-are-quitting-the-rightwing-press-and-their-families-left-them-no-choice
    Hooray! A psychiatric panel in Israel has found alleged child sex abuser Malka Leifer fit to stand trial and accused her of faking mental illness to avoid extradition, according to her lawyers. What an awful specimen she is!
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jan/09/alleged-child-abuser-malka-leifer-fit-to-stand-trial-panel-rules
    The easy to dislike David Leyonhjelm has appealed against a court finding that he defamed Greens senator Sarah Hanson-Young by calling her a misandrist and hypocrite.
    https://www.theguardian.com/law/2020/jan/09/david-leyonhjelm-appeals-against-court-ruling-that-he-defamed-sarah-hanson-young

    Cartoon Corner

    Andrew Dyson and Morrison’s recovery program.

    Cathy Wilcox keeps her foot on the government’s throat.

    Matt Golding




    Peter Broelman

    Alan Moir

    Simon Letch and the troubles of the royal family.

    Johannes Leak at Buckingham Palace.
    https://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/3013607ea9cdeeb60df9d66ff8690529?width=1024

    From the US











  7. Morning all. I doubt Trump will be keen to take too much of the “credit” for the casualties of the downed jetliner. It only underlines why we should get our troops out of Iraq ASAP.

  8. Soc

    Yep. We lost. Remember the Bush Oil Family’s ‘Axis of Evil”.

    One Foundation Member of the Axis of Evil – Iraq – is essentially mostly controlled by another of the Foundation Members of the Axis of Evil – Iran.
    Another Foundation Member – North Korea – is cocking a snoot at Trump.
    Another Foundation Member – Libya – is now a warlord-ridden wreck of a state and a source of many the weapons that are being used to destabilize many Sahel states. Over 15,000 casualties and 500,000 refugees last year alone.

    What a total, total fuckup.

  9. Socrates @ #11 Friday, January 10th, 2020 – 7:47 am

    Morning all. I doubt Trump will be keen to take too much of the “credit” for the casualties of the downed jetliner. It only underlines why we should get our troops out of Iraq ASAP.

    I’m not so confident that Trump or Pompeo, because he is the one that convinced Trump to get into the Iran conflagration, will be that rational. I’m fearing that they will use the confirmation that the airliner was downed by an Iranian missile to escalate again.

  10. From previous thread: I thought Michael Rowland did a good job on 7.30 with his questions. The problem was our lying, gaslighting PM, who now has his shifty answers well rehearsed.

    Amanda Perram@AmandaPerram
    ·
    6h
    With every lie the PM tells, never forget it was he that instructed departmental & detention centre staff to only refer to asylum seekers as ‘‘illegals’’ & ‘‘detainees’’ in an attempt to dehumanise them, knowing full well it’s not illegal to seek asylum

  11. Well, according to The Washington Post, Iran is trying its best to de-escalate:

    ISTANBUL — An Iranian military commander said Thursday that missiles fired at bases used by U.S. troops in Iraq were not intended to inflict casualties, in the latest sign that Iran was seeking to avoid further escalation of hostilities with the United States.

    After more than a dozen missiles slammed into the bases early Wednesday local time, both sides for now appear to be stepping back from further conflict.

    “We did not intend to kill,” said Brig. Gen. Amir Ali Hajizadeh, the head of the Revolutionary Guard’s Aerospace Force, according to Iranian state media. “We intended to hit the enemy’s military machinery.”

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/missile-strike-on-us-bases-did-not-intend-to-kill-says-iranian-commander/2020/01/09/c5c2295c-3260-11ea-971b-43bec3ff9860_story.html

  12. Climate Council
    @climatecouncil
    ·
    22h
    As air pollution from bushfires peaked, those who spent time outside in Canberra were effectively smoking 2.5 cigarettes an hr. The health of Australians is at serious risk from the bushfire crisis, which is being driven by climate change.
    @MarkusMannheim

  13. IF Trudeau has such information the Americans would 100% for sure have the same info and a lot more. Why would they have kept quiet ? Or slipped it to Trudeau to make public ? It’s not as if they’d want to protect Iran.

  14. poroti @ #19 Friday, January 10th, 2020 – 8:04 am

    IF Trudeau has such information the Americans would 100% for sure have the same info and a lot more. Why would they have kept quiet ? Or slipped it to Trudeau to make public ? It’s not as if they’d want to protect Iran.

    Maybe because Trump has decided his base for re-election is more important? He came to power promising no new wars, remember?

  15. Cat

    I was referring to Aussie troops when I said “our”. I share your lack of optimism for a rational US reponse.

    Realistically, Australia staying in Iraq with USA now puts us as much out of step with the international community as we were when we went in in 2003. All that achieved was making Australia a target for radical terrorists, as Bali sadly proved. Staying now will do much the same.

  16. [‘Morrison said on Thursday night he was speaking about volunteer firefighters when that remark was recorded. Yet he seems to be stuck in a pattern. There was the trickiness over his holiday in Hawaii, his unwillingness to stop and listen to Zoey Salucci-McDermott in Cobargo, and his strained conversation with a firefighter in the same town.’]

    Morrison’s too clever by half. The two men who died on KI might not’ve been formal vollies but were by all accounts involved in fighting the bush fires. Rather than admit to making a mistake, he virtually said that the lives of two civilians were not on the same level as the loss of dedicated or volunteer firies – as Crowe says, yet another example of his ‘trickiness’, a badge which he seems to wear with the pride of a fool. And while it’s probably too early to predict his political demise, many of his colleagues will surely be pissed off with him, let alone large swathes of the electorate.

  17. The initial premise that Scott Morrison bases the rest of his decsions on, is false:

    “Australia is very committed to nuclear non-proliferation and particularly when it can get to the position of being weaponised to the extent that it appears that they have been seeking to achieve,” Mr Morrison said.

    “So it’s important that we counter that threat and we’ll play whatever constructive role we can do to achieve that. From where we’re sitting, my own view is I think the President has summed up where it sits for now quite well.”

    The Prime Minister made the remarks after the national security committee (NSC) of federal cabinet chose to keep Australian troops in Iraq in the wake of Iranian missile attacks this week.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/australian-troops-stay-in-iraq-despite-missile-attacks-20200109-p53q4r.html

    Iran was NOT seeking to make a Nuclear Bomb and had stood down from the effort after they signed the deal with President Obama. It’s only the provocations of Donald Trump that have turned them away from that path.

    Well, at least it’s a half truth, that doesn’t tell the whole story so as to justify Morrison’s position.

  18. Socrates @ #22 Friday, January 10th, 2020 – 8:10 am

    Cat

    I was referring to Aussie troops when I said “our”. I share your lack of optimism for a rational US reponse.

    Realistically, Australia staying in Iraq with USA now puts us as much out of step with the international community as we were when we went in in 2003. All that achieved was making Australia a target for radical terrorists, as Bali sadly proved. Staying now will do much the same.

    Exactly. And I find it scary that Scott Morrison finds common cause with the Evangelical Mike Pompeo. To the extent that he is crafting the justification for it by using the half truths I referred to earlier. To think that they view the situation through the Holy War/Crusade lens is frightening.

  19. My Avast experience. Thank you all who gave advice.

    I think I’ve finally uninstalled the blasted thing. The reason I thought that “uninstall” wasn’t working was that Avast seems to enjoy long periods of “not responding”, even during the uninstallation time. Patience was needed, which happened by accident as I went away to make some breakfast and when I returned the miracle (with many pauses “not responding”) finally happened.

    I think I now have found the reason for all the tardy loading that has been annoying me recently, when first turning on the computer.
    Goodbye and good riddance.

  20. There seems to be some movement at the station!

    Josephine Tovey
    @Jo_Tovey
    · 26m
    Mentions in both the Oz and SMH this morning about how public pressure and people contacting MPs about climate change is having an impact on Liberal MPs.

  21. Bluebottle

    They would have Iran under so much surveillance they would have ‘seen’ it happen in real time. No need for confirmation. Not to mention since when have the Pompeos worried to much about truth, let alone details, re Iran.

    C@tmomma
    Yes you are right re the “base” and wars. No war but he got to beat his chest and send out lots of “US military are greatest in the galaxy , the most powerful in the universe” type tweets. They’d be pure catnip for his base.

  22. ‘poroti says:
    Friday, January 10, 2020 at 8:04 am

    IF Trudeau has such information the Americans would 100% for sure have the same info and a lot more. Why would they have kept quiet ? Or slipped it to Trudeau to make public ? It’s not as if they’d want to protect Iran.’

    1. A lot of the dead had Canadian citizenship. Trudeau is virtually forced to speak out.
    2. Saner heads in the Trump administration, if any, looked over the edge of the brink and did not like what they saw. If so, easier to let Trudeau carry the can. Also, as noted previously, the fundies might hate the muslims but they are war weary.
    3. Both sides can walk away from a hot war now without a loss of face. The only material change is that the Iranians are sick of the bullying that goes with being forced into assymetrical warfare. In response to the assassination they have virtually announced a resumption of their centrifuge program. Since Israel would risk almost anything other than a nuclear Iran, Trump has effectively edged the Middle East a bit further towards the Rapture.

  23. @lizzie

    That is true I can’t argue with customers who blame ‘greenies’, ‘lefties’ or ‘leftists’ for the bushfires.

    However I believe such sentiment is held widely enough that it going to shore support for the government in the polls.

    Also, I argue that a lot of the anger being directed against the government, outside the region’s that have been most affected by the bushfires, are from people who already don’t like the government

  24. Twiggy’s ‘generosity’. Nothing is as it seems.

    But the bulk of the funds – $50 million – will go towards “convening leading experts to develop a globally relevant national blueprint for fire and disaster resilience.” Is such a thing even possible?

    “With the support of leading international non-profit environmental organisation Conservation International, these efforts will draw on existing research and expertise in Australia and overseas and accelerate innovation to develop new approaches to mitigate bushfires.”

    Who is Conservation International you may ask?

    They are an American “environmental charity” who have no connection to Australia and nothing to do with firefighting.

    A 2011 report questions their credibility as well as their “close links with controversial companies, including Cargill, Chevron, Monsanto and Shell.”

    https://theaimn.com/behind-twiggys-headline/

  25. Tristo

    Yes, we all feel cheered by the anger against Scomo, but on balance I expect nothing much has changed. His fans still believe every word he says.

  26. A missile strike is now believed to be the cause of the Ukrainian Airlines plane crash in Iran that killed all 176 people on-board.

    US and Canadian officials believe it’s “highly likely” Ukrainian Flight 752 was shot down by Iran after satellite detected infra-red blips of two missile launches, probably SA-15s, followed shortly by another explosion.

    It comes as new footage appears to show a missile hitting the plane shortly before it went down.

    The footage, verified by The New York Times, shows a small explosion occurring when a missile hit the plane, but the plane did not explode.

  27. Updating – I won’t be around for discussions, as I’m reliant on other people’s tech.

    We evacuated again yesterday – started off by going to a friend’s place nearer town so that we could access info more easily, I set off to Wodonga to pick up a few bits and pieces for the pumps, expecting to come back, and got a message whilst up there that we were leaving.

    So we’re back down in Eltham, which is not my idea of a safe place, but it’s safer than ours for the next day at least.

  28. lizzie
    Friday, January 10th, 2020 – 8:22 am
    Comment #27

    My Avast experience. Thank you all who gave advice.

    Und zo — when one door closes (first “Miss Lilies”) are finished then another door opens – “Rose Lilies”.

    Nothing to do with Avast – except “Avast ye swabs” and other talk like a pirate “stuff.”

  29. z
    I hope everything turns out alright. Our family paths have crossed, I believe. One of my nephews is a senior volunteer in the SES for the area covered by the fires in the North-east.
    Incidentally, he has to take leave. The $6000 is not accessible to him. Which shows, I suppose, that we now have different classes of volunteers.

  30. John Passant wrote about Forrest in 2017:

    Financial Review Rich List 2017 and Twiggy Forrest’s ‘philanthropy’

    https://independentaustralia.net/business/business-display/financial-review-rich-list-2017-and-philanthropy,10344

    Last week, Twiggy gave $400 million to various Twiggy Forrest charities. This amount is less than 6% of his wealth. A group of capitalists and their politicians, Turnbull and Shorten, were there, singing his praises.
    :::
    Firstly, the $400 million is tax deductible.
    :::
    It is no accident, too, that as the government has retreated from these areas under the charm of neoliberalism and restoring company profits, through company tax cuts, for example, there have been demands for increased “philanthropy” from the very rich.

    Such largesse is a poor substitute for community. It is not transparent, it is a fraction of what the government could fund and it is directed by the interests of the very rich. This philanthropy is neoliberalism writ small.
    :::
    Between 2003 when it was formed, and 2011 at least, FMG paid no income tax. In 2014/15, according to the ATO CorporateTax Transparency report, FMG had a turnover of more than $9 billion, a taxable income of just $208 million and paid income tax of – wait for it – $13 million. Someone with a company paying little or no tax can afford to give away hundreds of millions. For us as a community, a better way than waiting for Fortescue to give a little back might have been for his company to pay income tax, or in recent years, more income tax.

  31. BlackRock joins pressure group taking on biggest polluters

    World’s largest investor signs up to Climate Action 100+ after criticism from activists

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/jan/09/blackrock-joins-pressure-group-taking-on-biggest-polluters

    BlackRock, the world’s largest investor, has joined an influential pressure group calling for the biggest polluters to reduce their emissions, after criticisms that it was undermining action addressing the climate crisis.

    The US investment firm has signed up to Climate Action 100+, a group of investors managing assets worth more than $35tn (£27tn), that pressures fossil fuel producers and other companies responsible for two-thirds of annual global industrial emissions to show how they will reduce carbon dioxide pollution.

  32. Boerwar

    Sounds reasonable. Trudeau would be a suitable “non threatening” face to use .

    Re the a-bomb. Khamenei has issued a fatwa against acquiring or using nuclear weapons . All very haram,so are they really serious about getting one or just using it as a bargaining chip ? Mind you like all religions there would be mucho theological sophistry available to get around it.

  33. Aaaarrrggghhh!! Bloody religion will be the death of us!

    *excludes nice religious people like Greensborough Growler and the Pope. 🙂

  34. Urgent $1 million payments handed to councils in fire zones

    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/urgent-1-million-payments-handed-to-councils-in-fire-zones-20200109-p53q4d.html

    Urgent $1 million payments will land in local councils’ bank accounts within days as the Morrison government moves to get money flowing in devastated towns.

    An initial $60 million will be distributed across 42 local government areas, with each council getting $1 million and a further $18 million to be distributed at the discretion of the new National Bushfire Recovery Agency.
    :::
    The funding is aimed at allowing councils to start paying for road and bridge repairs, and the reconstruction of local infrastructure. Larger council areas such as East Gippsland in Victoria will receive more due to their size and the sheer scale of devastation.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *