Burning questions

To keep things ticking over, some factless musings on the bushfire situation.

Time for a new thread. While I’m about it, two points about the bushfire crisis. To start with the obvious: it would be really interesting to see an opinion poll right now, but being what time of year it is, there are no polls to be had. Even if you remain skeptical-or-worse about the value of voting intention polling in the wake of last year’s debacle, some personal ratings on Scott Morrison would undoubtedly offer a helpful objective measure of how his image is bearing up after what has clearly been a tough couple of weeks. If you take your cues from social media, you may have concluded by now that Morrison’s career is as good as over. But if the last few years have taught us nothing else, it’s that that’s usually not a good idea. However, a News Corp pundit who generally doesn’t partake of the organisational kool-aid may have been on to something when he noted that this apprehension was “probably what tricked Morrison into thinking that all the outrage against him was confected and so he might as well go catch some rays”.

A second, less obvious point relates to an Eden-Monaro by-election that some readers of Canberra tea leaves assured us was on the cards, with one such ($) relating a view that Labor member Mike Kelly would be “gone by Christmas”. These reports asserted that the by-election would be used by state Nationals leader John Barilaro to enter federal politics with a view to deposing struggling party leader Michael McCormack. But if it’s the case that the government has suffered a bushfire-related hit to its standing, the thought of taking on a Labor-held seat at a by-election may have lost its appeal. The once-bellwether seat covers some of the worst affected areas, including the town of Cobargo, where Morrison met a hostile reception on Thursday from locals who — depending on your right-wing news source of choice — are either in no way representative of the town, or all too representative of it.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,738 comments on “Burning questions”

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  1. lizzie says:
    Sunday, January 5, 2020 at 8:42 am

    Good reporters are being shown out from the pack. Will be interesting to see whether this crisis has any permanent effect on national news.
    ———————————-

    Should be no question about the winner of this year’s Walkley: ABC Radio and Television.

    So far it’s been a virtuoso performance under extreme pressure. What a great team of young journalists. (said an old journalist).

    I’ve been a persistent critic of ABC Television news in the past for trying to ape commercial television news. But what we’ve been seeing is a very professional news organization at work.

  2. Quick update, we’re out wetting everything down atm.

    Firstly, endless supply of water and river as back up. Cars packed and ready to go.

    Weather’s pretty stable – we’ve had some drops of rain, it’s a much cooler day, and there’s very little wind.

    Yesterday was nowhere are concerning as we thought and today looks better. But not being complacent.

  3. Mavis @ #247 Sunday, January 5th, 2020 – 11:00 am

    [‘Our thoughts and prayers are with those across Australia who are continuing to face the devastating fires that have been raging for months,” the Duke and Duchess of Sussex said.’]

    We don’t want your “thoughts and prayers” – Morrison looks after that department. What we need is your dinero.

    What about Clive Palmer? He had $60 Million to spend on election advertising, how about some spare change, like a few million, for the Bushfire victims?

  4. Yeah
    Don’t do anything. The great minds of PB obliging the LNP and advocating doing nothing.
    I would have thought that the result of the miracle election last May suggest that doing nothing is exactly as outlined in the details from the LNP playbook.
    The climate change emergency includes the word emergency for a reason!
    We should still be in Vietnam perhaps?
    Conscription perhaps?
    Suffragettes ?
    Campbell Newman still running Qld?
    Gina paying 40 cents per day?
    Eight hour day?
    Equal pay for women?
    Morrison and the present LNP government are a mob of duds.
    They only do nepotism and corruption.
    Australia needs to get on the front foot and regain control of the direction purpose of government and the media.
    Some on PB will express surprise when the role of the ABC is handed to Rupert Murdoch!
    PBers will to have no platform to talk/whinge/discuss when the LNP deemed that PB is not in the interest of Australians.
    A poll (not likely) would be interesting at this time.

  5. poroti @ #164 Sunday, January 5th, 2020 – 9:56 am

    I can see the axis of the Telegraph + 2GB using the march to turn Scrott into a victim. Poor Scrotty is out there saving the country and wadda those ferals-Greenies bludgers doing to fight the fires eh ?

    Yes I can definitely see that playing out.

    Flood your local members mailbox instead I reckon.

  6. Goll
    There is a difference.

    This is not government policy.

    There is a time for attack and there is a time for defence.

    By protesting in Sydney who is the target market?

  7. beguiledagain @ #251 Sunday, January 5th, 2020 – 11:05 am

    lizzie says:
    Sunday, January 5, 2020 at 8:42 am

    Good reporters are being shown out from the pack. Will be interesting to see whether this crisis has any permanent effect on national news.
    ———————————-

    Should be no question about the winner of this year’s Walkley: ABC Radio and Television.

    So far it’s been a virtuoso performance under extreme pressure. What a great team of young journalists. (said an old journalist).

    I’ve been a persistent critic of ABC Television news in the past for trying to ape commercial television news. But what we’ve been seeing is a very professional news organization at work.

    ABC coverage of this disaster has been first class.

  8. C@tmomma says:

    [‘What about Clive Palmer? He had $60 Million to spend on election advertising, how about some spare change, like a few million, for the Bushfire victims?’]

    Yes, it was he who helped give us Morrisson; on that basis alone he owes us big time.

  9. beguiled

    I’ve been a persistent critic of ABC Television news in the past for trying to ape commercial television news. But what we’ve been seeing is a very professional news organization at work.

    ________________________________

    I’ve felt for years that the problem is not the faces on TV and the voices on radio (with a couple of glaring exceptions) but the people who manage the output and are responsible for instilling a certain ‘culture’. We’ve seen it on commercial media where journalists who have been ‘let go’ are now expressing their views with real freedom. And, with a real crisis, and not the fake need to pretend to present ‘both sides’, ABC journos are able to do their jobs properly – not to mention that so many on the front lines are feeling very raw and are not thinking about the official cultural line.

  10. Boerwar says:
    Sunday, January 5, 2020 at 9:29 am

    …”They would have you believe that the forced call up of the ADF reservists is ‘unprecedented.’
    Try telling that to the CMF chocos who died on the Kokoda Trail”…

    Bloody imbecile.

  11. Thank you, Goll. Some people appear to be afraid of their own shadow. It’s okay to bloviate on PB but SmoKo might take advantage if someone dares to raise a peep against him at this time in public. However, as you say, that’s what they do, that’s what they will always do.

    Anyway, I have decided to go to Sydney on Friday, take my carefully folded sign with me and see who turns up. If it’s just the usual noisy, easily-ignored and vilified, suspects I’ll stay and watch then come home. However, if this is bigger than Ben Hur with lots of everyday Aussies making the effort, then I’ll join in. Not that the usual suspects won’t have my support, they surely will. Though I am not inclined to support people just using it as a fundraising and profile building exercise, on the Green Left, at these marches, or the Right, via propagandistic ads on facebook.

  12. Gee, ex-AFP Commisioner Andrew Colvin to head up the Bushfire Recovery Agency.

    Just the guy to round up those arsonists, and raid any journalists who don’t toe the line

  13. Just on the proposed protest – the PM, like his blood brothers in the US President and the UK PM, thrive on dominating the airwaves, not just in their own skins but with all the criticism from their opponents. He should not be given more public exposure to feed into the prejudices of those who cannot face the fact that they were wrong.

  14. Peter van OnselenVerified account@vanOnselenP
    4m4 minutes ago
    So far in his media conference the PM is reading details about what is happening – a welcomed change from his whole “boots on the ground, planes in the air, boats on the water” PR spin he delivered in yesterday’s media conference.

    Someone’s told him to tone down the smug.

  15. lizzie @ #278 Sunday, January 5th, 2020 – 11:29 am

    C@t

    Will Scomo have recovered his mojo enough to send police in to shut down marches and arrest protesters?

    That’s David Elliott’s job in the NSW State government. He’s quite capable of it. Though it’s Clover Moore, Sydney Mayor, who issues the permits to march. I don’t think the Liberals would be looking for another stoush with her so soon after the last one. 😆

  16. ______________________
    nath- I think you are wrong mundo. I’m certain Morrison will take hits on preferred PM, net satisfaction and some leader attributes. I think the only IF is whether this is just concentrated in NSW. Of course this could all fade by the next election or it could become entrenched. Looks like the next Newspoll is some time away. Perhaps in the interests of all they could put one together sooner.
    ——————-

    At the most, what looks like a disastrous performance by Scomo in the moment may start to shape a narrative about him. Whether it does or not – and among the broader public in the outer suburbs and the regions that gave Morrison his “miraculous” victory last year – who knows? In most democracies now the political attention span is goldfish like. In a few weeks the fires will finally burn out – until the next, probably no less horrendous, fire season – the heat will settle into autumn and other political distractions will emerge. A new war in the Middle East for example and/or terrorist incidents responding to Trump’s latest intervention – hopefully neither will happen but clearly they easily could – will start a whole new chapter in the story and the current one will be forgotten. The last couple of weeks have gone about as badly for Scomo as they could have- but whether it’s a turning point or a blip in the radar only time will tell.

    12, yes 12, degrees in bayside Melbourne at 11.30 am – and sweet rain for the last few hours. Really hope it’s heading east and north where it’s needed.

  17. C@T
    I’m not against protesting but who is the intended target?

    People in the fire zones may or may not appreciate it and city people will see it as the usual crowd. If the rally was to show support to those impacted and to honor the fire fighters then I would say go for it but if the aim is to basically to yell at people that they need to wake up then it will fall on deaf ears.

    In saying that everyone should wear something Hawaiian.

  18. ”Anyway, I have decided to go to Sydney on Friday, take my carefully folded sign with me and see who turns up”

    What will your sign say?

  19. Morrisons clear primary motivation is self-promotion, even when dealing with this disaster.

    He is such a dangerous individual to have as Prime Minister. Totally inappropriate for the role. I think many will come to the same conclusion.

  20. Littleproud goes on about rebuilding everything,treating this as a one off disaster.It wont be worth rebuilding as these fires are the the new normal for the regional areas.Pig ignorant of climate change.

  21. C@tmomma @ #274 Sunday, January 5th, 2020 – 11:27 am

    Thank you, Goll. Some people appear to be afraid of their own shadow. It’s okay to bloviate on PB but SmoKo might take advantage if someone dares to raise a peep against him at this time in public. However, as you say, that’s what they do, that’s what they will always do.

    Anyway, I have decided to go to Sydney on Friday, take my carefully folded sign with me and see who turns up. If it’s just the usual noisy, easily-ignored and vilified, suspects I’ll stay and watch then come home. However, if this is bigger than Ben Hur with lots of everyday Aussies making the effort, then I’ll join in. Not that the usual suspects won’t have my support, they surely will. Though I am not inclined to support people just using it as a fundraising and profile building exercise, on the Green Left, at these marches, or the Right, via propagandistic ads on facebook.

    I have just fired through a strongly worded, but respectful email to my local member.

    I urge yourself, Goll and others to consider doing the same.

  22. ‘Not Sure says:
    Sunday, January 5, 2020 at 11:27 am

    Boerwar says:
    Sunday, January 5, 2020 at 9:29 am

    …”They would have you believe that the forced call up of the ADF reservists is ‘unprecedented.’
    Try telling that to the CMF chocos who died on the Kokoda Trail”…

    Bloody imbecile.’

    They are being lied about for the political advantage of Reynolds and Morrison.

  23. ‘Rex Douglas says:
    Sunday, January 5, 2020 at 11:17 am

    Unfortunate for Albo that he has to share a podium with Marles. It lessens Albo.’

    Rexie from Greens Marketing finds yet another way of sinking the slipper into Labor.

    It worked well for the last six years. This sort of incessant attack by the likes of Hanson, Palmer, Katter and Di Natale helped sink Shorten and sink Labor. Having forgotten everything and learned nothing Rexie from Greens marketing is doing same old same old Greens shite.

    Enjoying Morrison, are we?

  24. Peter van OnselenVerified account@vanOnselenP
    4m4 minutes ago
    PM says the calling up of army reservists was a result of the unexpected scale of the disaster. OMG is he serious! The number of attempts to wake him up to what was coming I cannot even count. It might have been a shock to him, but that would be to him and him alone.. #auspol

  25. Queen Victoria
    @Vic_Rollison
    ·
    2m
    Holy crap! Linda Reynolds has just admitted – after being pushed to be honest by a journo – that she was in Bali over Christmas She did her best to say ‘I had some time off over Christmas with family’ and finally admitted it was OVERSEAS.

  26. My god, modern Liberals make Dr Goebbels seem a coy chap with their shameless lies!

    “ I should stressed that there is no dispute in this country about the issue of climate change, globally, and its effect on global weather patterns, and that includes how that impacts in Australia.

    I have to correct the record here, I have seen a number of people suggest that somehow the government does not make this connection.

    The government has always made this connection and that has never been in dispute. “.

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