Burning questions

To keep things ticking over, some factless musings on the bushfire situation.

Time for a new thread. While I’m about it, two points about the bushfire crisis. To start with the obvious: it would be really interesting to see an opinion poll right now, but being what time of year it is, there are no polls to be had. Even if you remain skeptical-or-worse about the value of voting intention polling in the wake of last year’s debacle, some personal ratings on Scott Morrison would undoubtedly offer a helpful objective measure of how his image is bearing up after what has clearly been a tough couple of weeks. If you take your cues from social media, you may have concluded by now that Morrison’s career is as good as over. But if the last few years have taught us nothing else, it’s that that’s usually not a good idea. However, a News Corp pundit who generally doesn’t partake of the organisational kool-aid may have been on to something when he noted that this apprehension was “probably what tricked Morrison into thinking that all the outrage against him was confected and so he might as well go catch some rays”.

A second, less obvious point relates to an Eden-Monaro by-election that some readers of Canberra tea leaves assured us was on the cards, with one such ($) relating a view that Labor member Mike Kelly would be “gone by Christmas”. These reports asserted that the by-election would be used by state Nationals leader John Barilaro to enter federal politics with a view to deposing struggling party leader Michael McCormack. But if it’s the case that the government has suffered a bushfire-related hit to its standing, the thought of taking on a Labor-held seat at a by-election may have lost its appeal. The once-bellwether seat covers some of the worst affected areas, including the town of Cobargo, where Morrison met a hostile reception on Thursday from locals who — depending on your right-wing news source of choice — are either in no way representative of the town, or all too representative of it.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,738 comments on “Burning questions”

Comments Page 5 of 75
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  1. Morrison should be left to his own devices to continue to prove what a dickhead he is. People can see that already.

    We are in grave danger now from inaction on climate change. In Australia, this is in large part because of deliberate misinformation from the likes of News Ltd. I’d rather a campaign to get that message through to people.

  2. AE. Does the ALP have an approach to overly zealous campaign volunteers who put people off with their shrill and OTT canvassing? Are there any processes to keep an eye on what they are saying and how they are interacting with the public?

  3. The obvious line from the shock jocks is this: the rest of Australia is united in actively fighting the fires, helping the evacuees, and pitching in with practical recovery… .. . and the marchers’ priority is?

  4. Norwester
    says:
    Sunday, January 5, 2020 at 10:18 am
    Morrison should be left to his own devices to continue to prove what a dickhead he is. People can see that already.
    We are in grave danger now from inaction on climate change. In Australia, this is in large part because of deliberate misinformation from the likes of News Ltd. I’d rather a campaign to get that message through to people.
    __________________________
    Yes a climate change protest would be much better. Perhaps it’s even time to charge the EV’s and head off to Adani?

  5. nath @ #201 Sunday, January 5th, 2020 – 10:18 am

    AE. Does the ALP have an approach to overly zealous campaign volunteers who put people off with their shrill and OTT canvassing? Are there any processes to keep an eye on what they are saying and how they are interacting with the public?

    You really are a sleazy piece of work. Back in the dumpster with you, where you belong.

  6. Davidwh @ #203 Sunday, January 5th, 2020 – 10:20 am

    How do you sack a PM. Oh yeah that’s right we have been doing that a lot lately and it’s worked out so well.

    Clearly, the public can’t actually sack a PM.

    But what you can do is make it clear to their party that their leader has become a massive electoral liability.

    The Liberals and their mates in the Murdoch media know how to do this.

    It is time Labor learned.

  7. nath

    I know annoying people is your Thing, and you’re proud of your ability to get under people’s skins, but really, this is not the time for it.

    If you can’t post here without snarking at other posters – who, at present, are likely to either going through all kinds of sh*t or worrying – as I know my extended friends and family are – about whether loved ones are going through all kinds of sh*t – then take a break.

  8. Mexicanbeemer

    “ Porter is a nasty grub”
    —————-

    So he will have the running as leader of the “liberals”!

    Though i think there is a lot of competition in the Liberal Party for the nastiest grubbiest!

    Incidentally, that must be the only situation left in Australia where there is competition!

  9. Boerwar @ #203 Sunday, January 5th, 2020 – 10:21 am

    The obvious line from the shock jocks is this: the rest of Australia is united in actively fighting the fires, helping the evacuees, and pitching in with practical recovery… .. . and the marchers’ priority is?

    Nothing will stop them. They have already cranked up and if there is only a meagre turnout they can simply say, the ‘Quiet Australians’ have spoken. That would be a kick from in front of goal for them.

    So you think the lady who took the remains of her burned down house to protest in front of Parliament House was helping Morrison?

  10. The MSM and others can try as hard as they want to pump up the Morrison tyres.

    many questions need to be answered.

    Just off the top of my head,

    How long will it take to determine which reservists are called upon ?

    Will it be a general call up or those with special skill sets ?

    How will the deployment be determined ?

    Which troops with which skill sets in which areas ?

    Will it be at the request of the states as it now is or will Morrison determine the deployment ?

    When will the 3000 troops be deployed ?

    When will the extra planes be in the air fighting the ongoing fires ?

    When will volunteer firies start to receive compensation payments ?

  11. WW2 CMF was a largely conscripted force.
    Labor policy, which had led to the great schism in WW1, was that conscripts could only fight within Australia and its territories This caused resentment from the US who had sent a large force of conscripts to fight in the pacific.
    Curtin had to force through the national executive a change so that conscripts could fight in a defined area of the South Pacific (in the end this was only relevant to protecting BoerWar’s relatives in NEI). Curtin was able to ensure the party didn’t split but it led to heated argument.
    At one Caucus meeting Curtin was being attacked by Calwell and he replied by calling Arthur “the hero of a thousand sham fights” Calwell replied with “ don’t make me a minister in your Nationalist Government” (a pointed reference to Billy Hughes)
    Curtin became distraught, left the caucus and visited the GG to resign. Fortunately Hore-Ruthven talked him around

  12. I’m all for protests.

    However, given the nature of this emergency, the timing could be crucial.

    For example, a significant increase in threat could arise on the day or on its eve.

    Such a coincidence could either reinforce the message or raise questions as to the protesters priorities. It could be tricky.

  13. A march in a city, by mostly lefties, yelling at Morrison, waving Greens, Union, RedFlag etc banners and clever dick but often grotesque anti Morrison signs is not gonna help atm.

    I am not against protest marches. I marched in the student protest last year. I just see this one, at this time, as fodder for Newscorp and the rest of the LNP cheer squad.

  14. zoomster
    says:
    Sunday, January 5, 2020 at 10:24 am
    nath
    I know annoying people is your Thing, and you’re proud of your ability to get under people’s skins, but really, this is not the time for it.
    _____________________
    Not true. I annoy very few on here, and those I do are the annoying ones.

  15. Kronomex @ #186 Sunday, January 5th, 2020 – 10:12 am

    “As William said we need polling to get some idea of the wider voter sentiment towards Scotty’s personal ratings.” He no doubt rates himself at 110%. However, outside the Scrottom bubble, the ratings would be slightly different.

    Prepare for disappointment.
    Never underestimate the dumbarsery of the voting public.

  16. mundo
    says:
    Prepare for disappointment.
    Never underestimate the dumbarsery of the voting public.
    ______________________
    I think you are wrong mundo. I’m certain Morrison will take hits on preferred PM, net satisfaction and some leader attributes. I think the only IF is whether this is just concentrated in NSW. Of course this could all fade by the next election or it could become entrenched. Looks like the next Newspoll is some time away. Perhaps in the interests of all they could put one together sooner.

  17. zoomster

    According to the cfa map, things near you haven’t moved much o’night, but I’m not exactly sure where you are.
    Do you still feel in danger?

  18. Kudelka with a message from the government.
    ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………
    captain pirate monkey disguised as a horse
    @jonkudelka
    THE ADVERTISING WILL CONTINUE UNTIL HANDSHAKES IMPROVE
    2:50 PM · Jan 4, 2020·Twitter Web App
    290
    Retweets
    1.1K
    Likes

  19. I would be reluctance to go protesting at this point, Albo has done everything right and just needs the ALP and its supporters to enjoy the ride because Morrison and his media chums are desperate.

    The term quiet Australians is an odd one because usually a quiet electorate indicates a coming electoral landslide but Morrison is probably too dim to understand that but then he is said to be one of the smarter operators in the government.

  20. swamprat @ #217 Sunday, January 5th, 2020 – 10:32 am

    I’m all for protests.

    However, given the nature of this emergency, the timing could be crucial.

    For example, a significant increase in threat could arise on the day or on its eve.

    Such a coincidence could either reinforce the message or raise questions as to the protesters priorities. It could be tricky.

    Simon Katich @ #218 Sunday, January 5th, 2020 – 10:33 am

    A march in a city, by mostly lefties, yelling at Morrison, waving Greens, Union, RedFlag etc banners and clever dick but often grotesque anti Morrison signs is not gonna help atm.

    I am not against protest marches. I marched in the student protest last year. I just see this one, at this time, as fodder for Newscorp and the rest of the LNP cheer squad.

    Okay, so my son and I have decided we will keep a watching brief on events between now and next Friday. On the day I will stick my finger in the wind and see which way the wind is blowing.

    I respect your opinions, Simon Katich, swamprat and even P1. Suffice to say, I will never be a ‘Quiet Australian’ too meek to protest my government.

  21. Simon Katich @ #217 Sunday, January 5th, 2020 – 10:33 am

    A march in a city, by mostly lefties, yelling at Morrison, waving Greens, Union, RedFlag etc banners and clever dick but often grotesque anti Morrison signs is not gonna help atm.

    I am not against protest marches. I marched in the student protest last year. I just see this one, at this time, as fodder for Newscorp and the rest of the LNP cheer squad.

    Exactomundo.

  22. ScoMo; “give us a hug or just flip me the bird”

    Stung, he now wants this to be about him personally. Not about his lies and failures (leading up to and during this crisis). He is goading people to come out with nasty slogans and signs. He is a divisive hater.. he wants the story to be ‘Morrison vs the radical left’.

    P1

    I see we have a coterie of “Now is not the time …” fans even here on PB.

    I see your point. I want Morrison’s failures to count… to permanently reduce his base and for more people to now see through his BS. So yes for me, now, while the place is burning, is not the time to march.

    And when the time comes… please, everyone keep the politically affiliated banners at home. Unify the anger.

  23. My last word on the proposed protest. Some here seem to have forgotten that the most effective time to protest is the time when emotions and interest are running high, and also while you have the attention of the public – and not just the Australian public, but the world.

    Both are currently true. For example, this is going viral …

    https://twitter.com/i/status/1213440268365713408

    But this will not be true for long. Soon, Australia will be remembered by the world as just “that hick country that couldn’t understand the connection between fossil fuels, global warming and bushfires, even as their country burned to the ground around them”

  24. Is anyone going to be brave enough to listen to Scrott’s 11:00am update on how fantastic he has been with his handling of the bushfires ?

  25. He tries to draw in the states for blame, he tries to do the same for Labor. Anything to spread the disgust.

    Greg Jericho
    @GrogsGamut
    ·
    7m
    Morrison yesterday: “There is no disagreement at a political level in this country about the need to take action on climate change between the government and Opposition. There is no disagreement about that at all”

    Bullshit.

  26. [‘Our thoughts and prayers are with those across Australia who are continuing to face the devastating fires that have been raging for months,” the Duke and Duchess of Sussex said.’]

    We don’t want your “thoughts and prayers” – Morrison looks after that department. What we need is your dinero.

  27. nath @ #225 Sunday, January 5th, 2020 – 10:39 am

    mundo
    says:
    Prepare for disappointment.
    Never underestimate the dumbarsery of the voting public.
    ______________________
    I think you are wrong mundo. I’m certain Morrison will take hits on preferred PM, net satisfaction and some leader attributes. I think the only IF is whether this is just concentrated in NSW. Of course this could all fade by the next election or it could become entrenched. Looks like the next Newspoll is some time away. Perhaps in the interests of all they could put one together sooner.

    I think the psychological impact from this apocalyptic event will be significant.

    I’m certain it will affect the mindset of some voters. How many – and what change will result – is the unknown factor.

  28. Scout says:
    Sunday, January 5, 2020 at 10:59 am

    Tired of reading ‘what should the PM have done, it is not his fault these fires occurred’
    ———————————–
    No it isn’t his fault these fires occurred but his lack of leadership is his fault.

    Crisis makes or breaks a leader and Morrison has a lot of work to do to repair the damage from his run of poor decisions.

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