Burning questions

To keep things ticking over, some factless musings on the bushfire situation.

Time for a new thread. While I’m about it, two points about the bushfire crisis. To start with the obvious: it would be really interesting to see an opinion poll right now, but being what time of year it is, there are no polls to be had. Even if you remain skeptical-or-worse about the value of voting intention polling in the wake of last year’s debacle, some personal ratings on Scott Morrison would undoubtedly offer a helpful objective measure of how his image is bearing up after what has clearly been a tough couple of weeks. If you take your cues from social media, you may have concluded by now that Morrison’s career is as good as over. But if the last few years have taught us nothing else, it’s that that’s usually not a good idea. However, a News Corp pundit who generally doesn’t partake of the organisational kool-aid may have been on to something when he noted that this apprehension was “probably what tricked Morrison into thinking that all the outrage against him was confected and so he might as well go catch some rays”.

A second, less obvious point relates to an Eden-Monaro by-election that some readers of Canberra tea leaves assured us was on the cards, with one such ($) relating a view that Labor member Mike Kelly would be “gone by Christmas”. These reports asserted that the by-election would be used by state Nationals leader John Barilaro to enter federal politics with a view to deposing struggling party leader Michael McCormack. But if it’s the case that the government has suffered a bushfire-related hit to its standing, the thought of taking on a Labor-held seat at a by-election may have lost its appeal. The once-bellwether seat covers some of the worst affected areas, including the town of Cobargo, where Morrison met a hostile reception on Thursday from locals who — depending on your right-wing news source of choice — are either in no way representative of the town, or all too representative of it.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,738 comments on “Burning questions”

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  1. ‘Confessions says:
    Sunday, January 5, 2020 at 9:44 am

    David Speers is good at getting his interviewees to focus…’

    Speers has always been excellent. Dog with a bone with with brains. I met him late last year and was able to thank him for his excellent work. He responded with an appreciative grin.

  2. Van Badham
    @vanbadham
    ·
    8m
    The next time the Liberals tell you these fires “happen all the time”, ask them why these heritage properties are only burning down now. Surely we should have no heritage properties at all if the fires are so regular and common. #auspol #firecrisis

    ***

    May King
    @Ellasunshine
    · 4h
    This was my house. A beautiful old heritage listed former store in a quaint Southern Highlands village. Burnt to the ground with everything in it.

  3. ‘C@tmomma says:
    Sunday, January 5, 2020 at 9:43 am

    Sack Scomo Marches on Friday, January 10 in Sydney and Newcastle at 5.30pm at the Town Hall or City Hall and various other places across the country.

    Be there or be a supporter of ScoMo. The choice is yours.’

    Self-indulgent. Ridiculous. Counter-productive. I hope no-one turns up.

  4. Boerwar @ #150 Sunday, January 5th, 2020 – 9:44 am

    Just had a message from a good friend.Something like ten family members were evacuated over the past 24 hours. Peeps safe. Fire fronts went through subsequently. No information. Three houses at risk: a resigned sense of foreboding and dread.

    We continue to hope for the best – whatever that may (no lives lost).

    Best wishes on a day where a cheerful disposition is difficult to maintain.

    I need to change my gravatar. Brown Bear needs a rest.

  5. In WW2, the CMF were only to be deployed within Australia or Australian-ruled territory. At the time this included what is now PNG.

  6. Boerwar @ #150 Sunday, January 5th, 2020 – 9:47 am

    ‘C@tmomma says:
    Sunday, January 5, 2020 at 9:43 am

    Sack Scomo Marches on Friday, January 10 in Sydney and Newcastle at 5.30pm at the Town Hall or City Hall and various other places across the country.

    Be there or be a supporter of ScoMo. The choice is yours.’

    Self-indulgent. Ridiculous. Counter-productive. I hope no-one turns up.

    Catmoaner playing right into Sooty’s hands.
    Gee, don’t forget to paint yourself as a skeleton and carry a coffin.
    You wanna make sure you alienate as many people as possible and drive them back into the hugging arms of Scrotem.

  7. Scotty from Marketing can’t survive this given this isn’t just one cluster**** but it is one after another and it has been happening for weeks – the holiday, the hosting of Aussie cricketers, the Cobargo matter, the video. No matter what he does now it just looks like he is trying to safe himself.

    The problem is given the religion he follows he won’t have the nous to realise it.

    He is a failed marketeer/adman and is not a leader. He skated thru the last election and now the chickens are coming home to roost.

    The next impact will be the economic one.

  8. Boerwar @ #154 Sunday, January 5th, 2020 – 9:47 am

    ‘C@tmomma says:
    Sunday, January 5, 2020 at 9:43 am

    Sack Scomo Marches on Friday, January 10 in Sydney and Newcastle at 5.30pm at the Town Hall or City Hall and various other places across the country.

    Be there or be a supporter of ScoMo. The choice is yours.’

    Self-indulgent. Ridiculous. Counter-productive. I hope no-one turns up.

    Yeah, old man.

    I see mundo agrees with you. I don’t need to say any more than that. Other than Scott thanks you. I mean, if no one goes to the trouble of turning up then Morrison can say the Quiet Australians have spoken, eh?

    Up your game, Boerwar, you’re losing the plot.

    So, no, I won’t be taking the gratuitous, and wrong, advice of you or moano.

    And let’s just see who ends up being on the correct side of the politics of this issue.

  9. I can see the axis of the Telegraph + 2GB using the march to turn Scrott into a victim. Poor Scrotty is out there saving the country and wadda those ferals-Greenies bludgers doing to fight the fires eh ?

  10. I know that there are frequent complaints about ABC cutting off pollies (esp. Labor) and moving on, often to sport at the end of a half hour section.

    I think it may be because they are the only channel that sticks to program times and seems to make sports reports a priority. Not my choice. 🙁

  11. poroti @ #164 Sunday, January 5th, 2020 – 9:56 am

    I can see the axis of the Telegraph + 2GB using the march to turn Scrott into a victim. Poor Scrotty is out there saving the country and wadda those ferals-Greenies bludgers doing to fight the fires eh ?

    Unless … some off-duty firies showed up? Which, given the reaction Snotty has been getting from them, would not be out of the question.

  12. Boerwar
    says:
    Sunday, January 5, 2020 at 9:47 am

    Self-indulgent. Ridiculous. Counter-productive. I hope no-one turns up.
    __________________________________________
    I agree.

  13. The Ch9 breakfast show boofhead is credulous at the PMO’s statement that it had informed the NSW govt of its announcement yesterday, asking how it was possible they rushed out an ad but couldn’t pick up the phone to Fitzsimmons or his agency who would be responsible for on the ground logistics of the reservists.

    https://twitter.com/9NewsQueensland/status/1213562209890111488

    I reckon Scotty picked the wrong person to have a fight with, esp in the eyes of the public who justifiably put more faith in Fitzsimmons than they do the PM.

  14. poroti @ #163 Sunday, January 5th, 2020 – 9:56 am

    I can see the axis of the Telegraph + 2GB using the march to turn Scrott into a victim. Poor Scrotty is out there saving the country and wadda those ferals-Greenies bludgers doing to fight the fires eh ?

    Well, with sceptics like you already working on how to pump up Morrison’s tyres again they won’t have to work too hard, just copy your helpful suggestions.

    Let’s just see who turns up, eh?

    And since when have you turned contemptuous of ‘bludgers, ferals and Greenies’? They have a right to express their opinion too, despite what Murdoch tries to characterise them as.

  15. Player One

    A stack of firies wearing their soot and ash covered gear would be fantastic to include in the protest. Put them out the front of the march. They after all have been on the front line when comes to the fires and the Scrott’s poor effort.

  16. C@tmomma
    says:
    Well, with sceptics like you already working on how to pump up Morrison’s tyres again they won’t have to work too hard, just copy your helpful suggestions.
    __________________
    Poroti, stop pumping up Morrison’s tyres!

  17. poroti @ #170 Sunday, January 5th, 2020 – 10:01 am

    Player One

    A stack of firies wearing their soot and ash covered gear would be fantastic to include in the protest. Put them out the front of the march. They after all have been on the front line when comes to the fires and the Scrott’s poor effort.

    I wonder if we could convince Tony Abbott to lead them? I never thought that idiot could prove useful for anything, but he may have finally found his niche!

  18. Next thing you know, nath and Boerwar will agree that people shouldn’t be able to protest. What difference would it make after all? 🙄

  19. Kirky
    Morrison is safe as long as there isn’t a clear alternative.

    Dutton is political poison in Victoria
    Frydenberg needs a surplus to hang his hat on
    Porter is a nasty grub

    Only Frydenberg would appear to be politically competitive.

  20. C@tmomma
    says:
    Sunday, January 5, 2020 at 10:03 am
    Next thing you know, nath and Boerwar will agree that people shouldn’t be able to protest. What difference would it make after all?
    ___________________
    I’ve always said you and briefly are worth 1% to whichever Liberal you are out campaigning against.

  21. Mexicanbeener,

    I was hoping someone could lead them with an ounce of intelligence.

    Might have to go to Boston (a very antiTrump city) and stay with my expatriot Aussie friends until 2022!

  22. FMD.
    So, should the thousands of firey’s who are right now, today, take a break from the fire front so that they can attend something that is obviously a party partisan event?

    Thousands upon thousands of people are living in tents or in cars or in evacuation centres because they are homeless, or they can’t reach their homes, and a march will address all that?

    Jesus wept.

    Where do these wackaloons get their sense of propriety and priority and just plain humanity?
    Just because Morrison has a tin ear does not mean that rope-a-dopes have to emulate him.
    An anti-Morrison march right now has exactly the same qualities as Sleazy from Marketing’s Look At Moi political ad.

  23. C@tmomma
    says:
    Sunday, January 5, 2020 at 10:05 am
    poroti @ #171 Sunday, January 5th, 2020 – 10:02 am
    C@tmomma
    Read what I wrote. That is what THEY will be saying.
    Yes, I get that, but even with oblique ‘helpful’ observations they could be taken and run with by an appreciative Murdoch orc reading this blog. They are shameless, you know that.
    _________________________________
    Poroti, stop inadvertently writing material for the DT! Just stop it.

  24. nath @ #178 Sunday, January 5th, 2020 – 10:06 am

    C@tmomma
    says:
    Sunday, January 5, 2020 at 10:03 am
    Next thing you know, nath and Boerwar will agree that people shouldn’t be able to protest. What difference would it make after all?
    ___________________
    I’ve always said you and briefly are worth 1% to whichever Liberal you are out campaigning against.

    Another spiteful, fatuous comment, not at all unexpected. Though I have to compliment you. You do such sterling work for the Liberal cause here.

  25. Boerwar
    says:
    Where do these wackaloons get their sense of propriety and priority and just plain humanity?
    Just because Morrison has a tin ear does not mean that rope-a-dopes have to emulate him.
    An anti-Morrison march right now has exactly the same qualities as Sleazy from Marketing’s Look At Moi political ad.
    _________________________
    well said.

  26. Kirky
    I can’t think of anyone that fits that bill but they brought this on themselves by choosing to rubbish Turnbull and go the anti-intellectual route.

  27. Kirky
    “ and it has been happening for weeks – the holiday, the hosting of Aussie cricketers, the Cobargo matter, the video.”

    In fact Scotty from marketing has been avoiding acting on the bushfires for months – since he avoided the RFS chiefs in April. I think his extreme reluctance not to act until after people are literally dying is due to his having wedged himself. He did not want to act, which would have meant admitting he was wrong to dismiss earlier requests for assistance. And doing a more than “business as usual” response would have meant admitting the fires were not business as usual. It would have meant admitting climate change had created a new situation.

    I think Labor and the Greens should demand a royal commission into the bushfires after this is over. Regardless of who is running the country it is clear the system is broken and those in charge have no motivation to fix it. If the minors in the Senate block it Andrews should call it at State level, and offer to Gladys to join in. It now affects every state so most reasonable Indies should support it.

  28. “As William said we need polling to get some idea of the wider voter sentiment towards Scotty’s personal ratings.” He no doubt rates himself at 110%. However, outside the Scrottom bubble, the ratings would be slightly different.

  29. Boerwar @ #180 Sunday, January 5th, 2020 – 10:09 am

    FMD.
    So, should the thousands of firey’s who are right now, today, take a break from the fire front so that they can attend something that is obviously a party partisan event?

    Thousands upon thousands of people are living in tents or in cars or in evacuation centres because they are homeless, or they can’t reach their homes, and a march will address all that?

    Jesus wept.

    Where do these wackaloons get their sense of propriety and priority and just plain humanity?
    Just because Morrison has a tin ear does not mean that rope-a-dopes have to emulate him.
    An anti-Morrison march right now has exactly the same qualities as Sleazy from Marketing’s Look At Moi political ad.

    By Friday the situation will be entirely different. And maybe, some of those people who are displaced by the bushfires and angry at Morrison’s pathetic response may want an outlet for their opinion?

    But you keep supporting Morrison’s ‘Quiet Australians’ approach. He thanks you.

  30. Darren Chester MPVerified account@DarrenChesterMP
    7m7 minutes ago
    These guys and girls have worked their guts out loading supplies, transporting emergency services crews and evacuating people from fire threatened communities. Smoke has cleared today and big airlift effort will focus on Mallacoota. #lovegippsland #TYFYS @DeptDefence

    TYFYS?

  31. Tom @ #187 Sunday, January 5th, 2020 – 10:12 am

    C@tmomma @ #177 Sunday, January 5th, 2020 – 10:05 am

    poroti @ #171 Sunday, January 5th, 2020 – 10:02 am

    C@tmomma

    Read what I wrote. That is what THEY will be saying.

    Yes, I get that, but even with oblique ‘helpful’ observations they could be taken and run with by an appreciative Murdoch orc reading this blog. They are shameless, you know that.

    C@Tmomma, there are times when you should just pull your head in.

    Why? I am no ‘Quiet Australian’. You appear to be into censorship though.

  32. It seems that the relative peaceful, harmonious and generally thoughtful atmosphere on Bludger yesterday is breaking down … Alas

  33. The Right Wing crazies will have a field day with it.
    Just when they are on the back foot because they are climate crazies and climate warming has caught up with them.
    They have tried arsonists, greenies stopping backburning, the states… but there is no traction in any of this.
    So let’s give them what they desperately need: some cannon fodder. Easy as that.
    If the march makes any practical difference at all it will because it has distracted resources and effort from the real thing.
    People are yet to be buried. The burnt houses have yet to be counted. The injured stock have yet to be shot.
    So, what is the priority?
    Am I sick of self-indulgence and political wankery.

  34. Boerwar @ #154 Sunday, January 5th, 2020 – 9:47 am

    ‘C@tmomma says:
    Sunday, January 5, 2020 at 9:43 am

    Sack Scomo Marches on Friday, January 10 in Sydney and Newcastle at 5.30pm at the Town Hall or City Hall and various other places across the country.

    Be there or be a supporter of ScoMo. The choice is yours.’

    Self-indulgent. Ridiculous. Counter-productive. I hope no-one turns up.

    I think you are wrong Bw. Rodent’s fall started with the Anti-Iraq War marches of 2003. I marched then. This is Scummo’s Iraq – only that it’s our country, not Murdoch’s Spivs. I will march now. March or die .

  35. I think that the ScoMo supporters and the Murdoch morons are perfectly capable of inventing their own rubbish without needing to read PB.

  36. rhwombat @ #192 Sunday, January 5th, 2020 – 10:15 am

    Boerwar @ #154 Sunday, January 5th, 2020 – 9:47 am

    ‘C@tmomma says:
    Sunday, January 5, 2020 at 9:43 am

    Sack Scomo Marches on Friday, January 10 in Sydney and Newcastle at 5.30pm at the Town Hall or City Hall and various other places across the country.

    Be there or be a supporter of ScoMo. The choice is yours.’

    Self-indulgent. Ridiculous. Counter-productive. I hope no-one turns up.

    I think you are wrong Bw. Rodent’s fall started with the Anti-Iraq War marches of 2003. I marched then. This is Scummo’s Iraq – only that it’s our country, not Murdoch’s Spivs. I will march now. March or die .

    Thank you for your support, rhw. I was thinking of the Anti Iraq War Marches and the March in March myself. Both led, eventually, but not immediately, to the downfall of Conservative Australian governments. Too many here, it seems, would rather be conscripted into Morrison’s Quiet Australians Army.

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