Burning questions

To keep things ticking over, some factless musings on the bushfire situation.

Time for a new thread. While I’m about it, two points about the bushfire crisis. To start with the obvious: it would be really interesting to see an opinion poll right now, but being what time of year it is, there are no polls to be had. Even if you remain skeptical-or-worse about the value of voting intention polling in the wake of last year’s debacle, some personal ratings on Scott Morrison would undoubtedly offer a helpful objective measure of how his image is bearing up after what has clearly been a tough couple of weeks. If you take your cues from social media, you may have concluded by now that Morrison’s career is as good as over. But if the last few years have taught us nothing else, it’s that that’s usually not a good idea. However, a News Corp pundit who generally doesn’t partake of the organisational kool-aid may have been on to something when he noted that this apprehension was “probably what tricked Morrison into thinking that all the outrage against him was confected and so he might as well go catch some rays”.

A second, less obvious point relates to an Eden-Monaro by-election that some readers of Canberra tea leaves assured us was on the cards, with one such ($) relating a view that Labor member Mike Kelly would be “gone by Christmas”. These reports asserted that the by-election would be used by state Nationals leader John Barilaro to enter federal politics with a view to deposing struggling party leader Michael McCormack. But if it’s the case that the government has suffered a bushfire-related hit to its standing, the thought of taking on a Labor-held seat at a by-election may have lost its appeal. The once-bellwether seat covers some of the worst affected areas, including the town of Cobargo, where Morrison met a hostile reception on Thursday from locals who — depending on your right-wing news source of choice — are either in no way representative of the town, or all too representative of it.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,738 comments on “Burning questions”

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  1. swamprat

    Smoko’s holding out for a call to aid the Waffen-US with its colonial troubles in Iraq.

    He may not have long to wait. Hundreds of thousands marching in Baghdad chanting “Death to America” and the Iraq Sunni Grand Mufti has called for his mob to join with their “Shia brothers” and kick the yanks out.

  2. Boerwar @ #295 Sunday, January 5th, 2020 – 11:50 am

    ‘Rex Douglas says:
    Sunday, January 5, 2020 at 11:17 am

    Unfortunate for Albo that he has to share a podium with Marles. It lessens Albo.’

    Rexie from Greens Marketing finds yet another way of sinking the slipper into Labor.

    It worked well for the last six years. This sort of incessant attack by the likes of Hanson, Palmer, Katter and Di Natale helped sink Shorten and sink Labor. Having forgotten everything and learned nothing Rexie from Greens marketing is doing same old same old Greens shite.

    Enjoying Morrison, are we?

    No and I don’t enjoy seeing Marles either. They’re both hopeless.

  3. This could have been Morrison’s moment to shine, starting from last May. Never a better opportunity to show strength and leadership. Now he’s saying the past doesn’t matter, look at me now. We all are, ScoMo.

  4. Leaving aside the accountancy trickery, has any journo asked how releasing a whole years worth of carbon emissions from these bushfires is going to meet and beat our targets ?

  5. Kayjay,
    “I am working on a Mr. Whatsisname repellent spray which will stop a charging dickhead, hell bent on delivering unwanted hugs, dead in its tracks.” I find a piece of 4×2 very effective in stopping that sort of thing or failing that a rapidly advancing fist between the eyes of the advancing mugger….errrr hugger

  6. “I have to correct the record here, I have seen a number of people suggest that somehow the government does not make this connection.

    The government has always made this connection and that has never been in dispute.”

    We have always been at war with Eastasia.

  7. poroti

    “ He may not have long to wait. Hundreds of thousands marching in Baghdad chanting “Death to America” and the Iraq Sunni Grand Mufti has called for his mob to join with their “Shia brothers” and kick the yanks out.”
    ————-

    The white house may be funding the muftis. Another wee war will mask his congressional troubles.

  8. Proof of a politician’s lies often takes weeks, months or years to be revealed.
    We now have almost real time proof through social media of what happened.

  9. Is Scotty’s news conference STILL going? That’s over an hour. Have there been any new announcements or is just another of his sermons?

  10. 1. Stop Rupert from siphoning off live sport to pay TV…

    What’s really discouraging is that even at this point, when it’s become indisputable that NewsCorp is nothing more than an industrial-scale libel and misinformation operation literally dedicated to mass extinction, even at this point with the country immolating, even here in a predominantly ALP and Green forum, we are still not ready to have the conversation about simply having NewsCorp shut down as the public hazard that it obviously is.

    We’ve absorbed so much naive liberal mythology about “free speech” that we’d rather burn to death than contemplate a government with more power than Murdoch.

  11. From Morrison’s press conference.

    … Asked whether Australia will exert diplomatic pressure on its allies – like the US – to do more on emissions reductions,

    What a stupid question.

    How can this Government put pressure on others when they are doing fuck all themselves? 🙁

    From the Guardian blog.

  12. One of the journos is pushing the “not enough hazard reduction” barrow and Morrison takes it up with gusto. If he spoke the truth and knew what he was talking about he could douse this belief in a sentence.

  13. “I think Labor and the Greens should demand a royal commission into the bushfires”

    ***

    The Greens have called for a Royal Commission into the bushfire crisis, Labor says it’s open to it

    Greens Senator Richard Di Natale said Prime Minister Scott Morrison has failed his “duty to keep citizens safe from harm”.

    “His totally inadequate response to these fires and his obstinate refusal to accept what we have known for decades: that burning climate changing fossil fuels would lead to more frequent and intense bushfires is putting the lives of Australians at risk,” he said.

    Senator Di Natale also called for a Royal Commission, saying more action is needed to go to the “root cause” of the bushfires.

    “Australia’s climate has changed and we need to make sure that our land management, disaster response and climate policies are relevant to the new reality we face.”

    https://www.sbs.com.au/news/call-for-royal-commission-into-australia-s-bushfires-as-government-urged-to-tackle-root-cause

  14. ‘Rex Douglas says:
    Sunday, January 5, 2020 at 11:58 am

    Boerwar @ #295 Sunday, January 5th, 2020 – 11:50 am

    ‘Rex Douglas says:
    Sunday, January 5, 2020 at 11:17 am

    Unfortunate for Albo that he has to share a podium with Marles. It lessens Albo.’

    Rexie from Greens Marketing finds yet another way of sinking the slipper into Labor.

    It worked well for the last six years. This sort of incessant attack by the likes of Hanson, Palmer, Katter and Di Natale helped sink Shorten and sink Labor. Having forgotten everything and learned nothing Rexie from Greens marketing is doing same old same old Greens shite.

    Enjoying Morrison, are we?

    No and I don’t enjoy seeing Marles either. They’re both hopeless’

    Rexie from Greens Marketing does it again. Six years of Killing Bill and Sinking Labor and the job is only half done. Rexie’s Goebbels rule is evident: endless repetition, endless repetition of snide attacks.

    Rexie from Greens Marketing helped Morrison get up. No sign of buyer’s remorse, but.

  15. Coorey was in an area smashed by the fire. He experienced first hand the chaotic impact of what happens when fuel supplies run out. It was a legitimate question.

  16. Peter van OnselenVerified account@vanOnselenP
    3m3 minutes ago
    It’s a really interesting study of political marketing watching this PM media conference. It started very carefully crafted to tone down the anger against him. But under questioning Morrison’s deliberate tone struggles to be maintained as his natural style comes through.

    You can put lipstick on a pig….

  17. [‘…Labor member Mike Kelly would be “gone by Christmas”.’]

    I reckon Kelly’s of good value and should be in the Shadow Cabinet, as the Shadow Minister for Defence, not merely the assistant Shadow Minister for Defence. He has a military background, is articulate and presents a good image, rumours of his departure appearing to have been overstated. If he were to resign though, it would provide a fairly accurate gauge on Morrison’s carriage of the bush fire crisis, with the caveats that Oppositions usually win byelections, and more relevantly, those affected directly or indirectly by a crisis such as this one tend to blame whomsoever’s at the top – in this case, with just cause.

  18. PB is lively today. Thoughts so far.

    on Morrison: 100% agree with Socrates. Morrison’s actions point to his being a sociopath and the reincarnation of Bjelke Petersen.

    on emperor’s clothes: It’s actually stunning how incompetent Morrison is.

    on the art of the con:
    * “There is no disagreement at a political level in this country about the need to take action on climate change between the government and Opposition.” is part of the con.
    * Morrison’s defence of his video last night included wtte “Labor does it too.” is part of the con.
    * Once started the illusion of the con must continue or shatter permanently. Morrison’s actions are consistent within that framing. The con continues. (Fantasies allow so many options.)

    on signs: While you can’t go past Morrison’s coal to parliament stunt, right now it’s about leadership. A “grinner in Hawaii” might be the go.

    on timing:
    * I’m a professional amateur, but right now the anger feels swirling and unfocused. Get the timing wrong and you’ll find yourself at the wrong end of it.
    * The dynamics of this bushfire is of months not days. The anger is easy. The challenge is staying focused on why you are angry.

    on post-Morrison: Littleproud?

    Be safe.

  19. I gather they have these modern guns on ships that fire a wall of shrapnel to stop incoming rockets and shells.

    That’s exactly the Smoko modus operandi …… he fires a wall of what he hopes is soothing blah and lies to confound questions and distract thought.

  20. “I can understand how that contributes to how people are feeling about this issue around the country, and that is acknowledged, but what most importantly what is needed is that we just keep working together, and we are.”

    That’s out and out gaslighting.

  21. swamprat @ #332 Sunday, January 5th, 2020 – 11:16 am

    I gather they have these modern guns on ships that fire a wall of shrapnel to stop incoming rockets and shells.

    That’s exactly the Smoko modus operandi …… he fires a wall of what he hopes is soothing blah and lies to confound questions and distract thought.

    By the time you give up trying to unpick it you’ve forgotten the point.

  22. One of my best mates has been told to evacuate from Eden. His house backs on a veg reserve. Current winds are blowing the blaze into the reserve.

    He had been having a stoush for some months with a neighbour who has a shed full of flammables (paints and solvents) right next to mate’s house.

    Not sure what happens next.

  23. ‘steve davis says:
    Sunday, January 5, 2020 at 12:18 pm

    Boerwar
    Yes that was a legitimate question, but his other one was stupid.’

    Which one was that? I missed it.

  24. roger miller,

    Weasel words from LNP.

    They are very, very careful to omit the LNP caveat:
    “Climate change is not caused by human activity”.

    Murdoch, MCA and LNP are fighting for the defence of “climate skepticism”.
    We’ve reached the point where it is virtually impossible to claim the climate is not changing without looking like a complete nutter, so the fall back is “cc is happening but it’s a natural process”.

    That is the current beach head for the reactionary forces.

  25. swamprat

    Constant “I do understand” annoyed me as much as anything. Added to “Jenny and I understand”.
    What he understands is that he’s in trouble and is trying to talk himself out of it.
    Interesting that he alternates promises of endless supply of dollars for assistance, with caution about the next budget. Perhaps he’ll blame Josh if there’s not enough money because, well, surplus.

  26. More thoughts.

    on reporters: I can’t recall where I read this, but it was pointed out there is a large number of reporters currently on holidays who caught up in the fire areas. They won’t forget Morrison’s actions and inaction.

    On the ABC: I have been thoroughly impressed with the ABC reporters on the ground. They’re experiencing the same as the people around them. They are professional. I can see myself standing there. They take me into the fire.

  27. “Speers must be sick of Murdoch and jumped ship.”

    ***

    Happened last year but Sky forced him to see out his contract. Looks right at home on the ABC News channel. Many former Sky employees have ended up there. For example, the current host of the ABC’s rolling bushfire coverage, Celina Edmonds, was a presenter at Sky for a very long time before jumping ship. There are many others who’s names escape me right now. Sky has lost so much credibility over the last few years. It used to be a centre-right straight news channel but now it’s just non-stop far-right propaganda. Their last shred of credibility walked out the door with Speers.

  28. ‘Confessions says:
    Sunday, January 5, 2020 at 12:15 pm

    Peter van OnselenVerified account@vanOnselenP
    3m3 minutes ago
    It’s a really interesting study of political marketing watching this PM media conference. It started very carefully crafted to tone down the anger against him. But under questioning Morrison’s deliberate tone struggles to be maintained as his natural style comes through.

    You can put lipstick on a pig….’

    My reading of Sleazy’s presser, and I did not see all of it, was that he was only barely suppressing his fury at how unfair it all was… on him.

  29. swamprat @ #339 Sunday, January 5th, 2020 – 12:20 pm

    That’s out and out gasslighting.
    ————-

    What is gaslighting? (Apart from mid 19th century illumination)

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gaslighting

    Gaslighting is a form of psychological manipulation in which a person seeks to sow seeds of doubt in a targeted individual or in members of a targeted group, making them question their own memory, perception, and sanity. Using denial, misdirection, contradiction, and lying, gaslighting involves attempts to destabilize the victim and delegitimize the victim’s beliefs

    Expect to see a lot of this as the entirely predictable and foreseen consequences of global warming become more and more apparent 🙁

  30. Boerwar
    The one where… he asked whether Australia will exert diplomatic pressure on its allies – like the US – to do more on emissions reductions.

  31. Mexicanbeemer says:
    Sunday, January 5, 2020 at 10:40 am

    …”I would be reluctance to go protesting at this point, Albo has done everything right and just needs the ALP and its supporters to enjoy the ride because Morrison and his media chums are desperate”…

    It is not a coincidence that precicely the same group of people who are of the misapprehension that the opposition leader has “done everything right” in relation to this crisis, are the same mob who express a reluctance to march in protest against the government’s failure on climate policy.

    Journalist: “Mr Albanese, what is your opinion of the Prime Minister’s handling of the current bushfire crisis?”.

    Albanese: “I’m not a political commentator”.

    Enjoy the ride, indeed.

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