Time for a new thread. While I’m about it, two points about the bushfire crisis. To start with the obvious: it would be really interesting to see an opinion poll right now, but being what time of year it is, there are no polls to be had. Even if you remain skeptical-or-worse about the value of voting intention polling in the wake of last year’s debacle, some personal ratings on Scott Morrison would undoubtedly offer a helpful objective measure of how his image is bearing up after what has clearly been a tough couple of weeks. If you take your cues from social media, you may have concluded by now that Morrison’s career is as good as over. But if the last few years have taught us nothing else, it’s that that’s usually not a good idea. However, a News Corp pundit who generally doesn’t partake of the organisational kool-aid may have been on to something when he noted that this apprehension was “probably what tricked Morrison into thinking that all the outrage against him was confected and so he might as well go catch some rays”.
A second, less obvious point relates to an Eden-Monaro by-election that some readers of Canberra tea leaves assured us was on the cards, with one such ($) relating a view that Labor member Mike Kelly would be “gone by Christmas”. These reports asserted that the by-election would be used by state Nationals leader John Barilaro to enter federal politics with a view to deposing struggling party leader Michael McCormack. But if it’s the case that the government has suffered a bushfire-related hit to its standing, the thought of taking on a Labor-held seat at a by-election may have lost its appeal. The once-bellwether seat covers some of the worst affected areas, including the town of Cobargo, where Morrison met a hostile reception on Thursday from locals who — depending on your right-wing news source of choice — are either in no way representative of the town, or all too representative of it.
Swamprat
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gaslighting
Gaslighting is a form of psychological manipulation in which a person seeks to sow seeds of doubt in a targeted individual or in members of a targeted group, making them question their own memory, perception, and sanity. Using denial, misdirection, contradiction, and lying, gaslighting involves attempts to destabilize the victim and delegitimize the victim’s beliefs.
swamprat says:
Sunday, January 5, 2020 at 12:20 pm
That’s out and out gasslighting.
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What is gaslighting? (Apart from mid 19th century illumination)
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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gaslighting
“Gaslighting is a form of psychological manipulation in which a person seeks to sow seeds of doubt in a targeted individual or in members of a targeted group, making them question their own memory, perception, and sanity. Using denial, misdirection, contradiction, and lying, gaslighting involves attempts to destabilize the victim and delegitimize the victim’s beliefs.[1][2]
Instances may range from the denial by an abuser that previous abusive incidents ever occurred to the staging of bizarre events by the abuser with the intention of disorientating the victim. The term originated from the 1938 Patrick Hamilton play Gas Light and its 1940 and 1944 film adaptations (both titled Gaslight), in which a character tries to make his wife believe that she has gone insane to cover his criminal activities. When he turns up the gas-fueled lights in the upstairs apartment in order to search for a murdered woman’s jewels, the gaslights in his own apartment grow dimmer but he convinces his wife that she is imagining the change. The term has been used in clinical and research literature, as well as in political commentary.”
Isnt that the point? Doesnt it then make the question rather clever?
I’d call Morrison the prefect example of a gaslighter, trying to persuade us that what we know happened is untrue, but what we know he didn’t do not only happened, but was a raging success and example of his planning brilliance.
lizzie
“ Constant “I do understand” annoyed me as much as anything. Added to “Jenny and I understand”.
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I could not watch him.
I assume the minders have told him to say “I understand” a lot to placate/fool the infidels.
I really think he is psychologically “different”. He has no compunction blatantly saying anything at all. The truth, to him, is totally incidental.
One great facility of our poor democracy is that the PM can be removed by his “peers” at anytime. He is not an elected monarch like in some countries.
Eden about to be wiped out apparently. Horrendous.
SK
He knew what the answer was going to be so why ask it?
Not Sure
It is not a coincidence that precicely the same group of people who are of the misapprehension that the opposition leader has “done everything right” in relation to this crisis, are the same mob who express a reluctance to march in protest against the government’s failure on climate policy.
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You are right. It’s not a coincidence. Never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake. While Scomo is being excoriated by the broad community for politicising, in the crassest way, the Government’s decision, the smartest thing for a political opponent to do is to stay right out.
Confessions
Thats pure sarcasm from PvO.
Stefanovic gives Morrison a second spray:
https://www.news.com.au/national/breaking-news/karl-stefanovic-slams-arrogant-pm/news-story/4c7f4c1a1cdbf7549167c2154ecce6c4
Thanks TPOF. And lizzie.
I should have looked at Wiki.
It is an allusion to a title of a US play and therefore not very self explanatory.
swamprat
I didn’t know about it until the supreme gaslighter became our PM. 🙂
Over 3000 people live in Eden.That is huge.
steve davis @ #360 Sunday, January 5th, 2020 – 9:32 am
Yeah I just twigged!
‘Barney in Tanjung Bunga says:
Sunday, January 5, 2020 at 12:23 pm
Boerwar @ #553 Sunday, January 5th, 2020 – 9:14 am
Coorey was in an area smashed by the fire. He experienced first hand the chaotic impact of what happens when fuel supplies run out. It was a legitimate question.
How is it legitimate when we aren’t willing to act?’
One of the learnings from these fires is that there needs to be centralized and prioritized fuel management. IMO, asking about that is a legitimate question.
If the roles were reversed, and Albanese were responsible for this gigantic fuckup, Morrison would mercilessly beat him over the head with it at every given opportunity.
Liberals win elections.
Labor lose elections.
It’s just how stuff works.
The Eden evacuation is de facto, a chain evacuation. A lot of people from the hills and valleys inland of Eden had already evacuated TO Eden.
Albo
Boerwar @ #592 Sunday, January 5th, 2020 – 9:36 am
How does that relate to putting pressure on other Countries to act?
swamprat
Scrott has an advantage over most of us. He has had years of training at Hillsong’s Academy of Bullshittery . A great place to become super comfortable with shameless spouting of utter nonsense in public.
BiTB
I think we may have crossed lines. We seem to be talking about different questions. If I understand your point correctly I believe that you have a point.
Smoko(small town in Victoria) ironically involved in the bushfire crisis too.
Not Sure
Morrison would hardly have to lift a finger. The Murdoch press would have beaten Albo to death by now. They’d have the peasants ready to tar and feather Albo. Alan Jones would be in a frenzy .
Next election every elector should have put before them constantly the image of Scumo wearing an Hawaiian shirt and holding a lump of coal.
“Morrison has ruled out imposing a levy to help with the billion-dollar clean up bill from the bushfires which have ravaged the country.
Mr Morrison said Cabinet would meet on Monday to discuss further federal government response to supporting states and regional communities prepare and recover from the fires.”
The Toorak Toff @ #374 Sunday, January 5th, 2020 – 11:42 am
I can’t see Morrison leading the libs at the next election. He gets to shield them until there are more holes than shield, then he’s gone.
Where is the information on Eden coming from?
The latest update on NSW RFS (15 minutes ago) is:
Wyndham, Rocky Hall, Nethercote, Eden and surrounds
*Monitor the conditions and know what you will do if the fire threatens.
*Be alert for falling trees and branches.
*Remain in place. A number of roads are fire affected, blocked or closed.
On all this bulldust about being well prepared and everything’s been in hand for months (which we know is untrue):
1. I’m not a climate scientist, but I’m prepared to trust their forecasts.
2. I’m not a weather expert, but I keep a close eye on it.
3. Since I live in an area which is bushfire prone, for over twenty years I have studied the summer forecasts and have taken note of the impressive increase in the BOM and cfa accuracy in forecasting.
Therefore, last spring, when I saw the map that forecast the probable extreme fire danger areas in south east Aus, I took careful note. So far the fires have almost exactly matched that forecast.
WHY did no one in the Morrison government take it seriously? There is no excuse. They actually rebuffed the experts and laughed at them as panic merchants.
Criminal negligence. Manslaughter. Environmental vandalism.
So much in one image.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-01-05/fires-new-south-wales-victoria-still-burning-live-blog/11841090
Well feeling a little better this morning after donating to foodbank and wildlife rescue.
Have started crocheting a birds nest for wildlife rescue as well.
Do what you can
ABC
Things are serious in Eden right now
ABC reporter Phil Williams says those who took shelter in the town have been through a “very dramatic couple of hours”:
The news is people of Eden have been ordered out of town. They’ve been told that for their own safety they have to get in their cars and get out of town, get north, up to places like Merimbula, and Bega. Some people here have decided to comply with that, and there’s been a very emotional scenes here. Some have decided their safest spot is right here in Eden, by the wharf, by the water. One person said that at least water doesn’t burn. But this has been a very dramatic couple of hours. You can see the conditions appear to have gotten worse. The wind has picked up and clearly the authorities are very concerned that they can’t look after everybody here and they want those that can or are willing to do so, to get out of town right now.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-01-05/fires-new-south-wales-victoria-still-burning-live-blog/11841090
Australia’s pathetic PM reveals much about the right’s effort to deny reality:
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/jan/04/australias-pathetic-pm-reveals-much-about-the-rights-efforts-to-deny-reality
“But it is also true that you cannot postpone a rendezvous with reality forever. Whatever memes the right pushes out, whatever social media strategies they adopt and propaganda they trumpet, the lesson the refugees on Australia’s beaches know too well is that fire still burns.”
Roger Miller says:
Sunday, January 5, 2020 at 12:04 pm
“I have to correct the record here, I have seen a number of people suggest that somehow the government does not make this connection.
The government has always made this connection and that has never been in dispute.”
We have always been at war with Eastasia.
Craig Kelly just now in BBC interview
Well firstly there is no link, the facts that cause the fires are the drought and the drying of the environment and on this our climate scientists down here have been very clear and they have said that there is no link between drought and climate change.
NS
If the roles were reversed, and Albanese were responsible for this gigantic fuckup, Morrison would mercilessly beat him over the head with it at every given opportunity.
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And all the mainstream media, INCLUDING the ABC, would take their cue from Morrison and mercilessly beat him up to. this is not hypothesising. It is exactly what happened to Julia Gillard’s government between 2010 and 2013.
How good is climate modelling? As it turns out, it has been very good. No excuses to be surprised by this. Scientists got this correct years ago. Government(s) did not listen.
http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2019/12/how-good-have-climate-models-been-at-truly-predicting-the-future/
My sympathy to those in Eden. I fear they won’t be the last Australian community caught in this situation. Fire season still has two months to go.
OC
I was woken at about 3am in Canberra this morning by a series of smoke alarms going off (somewhere outside). I hopped onto the various sites including the DEA hotspots. Because of relationships in Eden I checked Eden specifically. I thought then that the fires would get into Eden today.
I don’t know if you have been to Eden but there are extensive external and internal interfaces between bush and properties. I was kind of hoping that since my mate was a fair way up the peninsula and below the main strip he should be OK. His particular problem would be the bush reserve abutting his property.
The Guardian
“On the blame that the Greens have been getting for this fire crisis (and Scott Morrison himself has raised the issue of hazard reduction at every opportunity, most notably when asked about the government’s climate change policies), Morrison launches into a monologue on blame:
There has been a lot of blame being thrown around. And now is a time to focus on the response that is being made.
Plenty of people have blamed me, people have blamed the Greens, people have blamed … Who knows?
Blame. It doesn’t help anybody at this time, and over-analysis of those things is not a productive exercise.”
Has Albanese come out to say the Greens are not to blame for the fires?
From the Guardian and posted here specifically for Rex:
“Richard Marles on the other hand, did not beat around the bush:
The first thing besides this, the Australian Defence Force has to be above Party politics. Scott Morrison and the Liberal Party do not own the Australian Army. They don’t. Yesterday was one of the worst weather days in this horrendous fire season. And what the Prime Minister chose to do on that day was to go out and make a Party-political ad. I mean, we need, in a time of national crisis, national leadership.
We need a Prime Minister who is the Prime Minister for all Australians, irrespective of how they vote. But if Scott Morrison can’t see himself as being anything more than a Liberal Party agent, then ultimately, he is not the Prime Minister for anyone. I mean, what this is about and what we saw this morning is the loss of homes.
This is about the loss of lives. This is an unprecedented event, which is enormously scary for the whole nation. And what we need is a Government which is there providing support for people, providing a sense of comfort, and providing national leadership.
What this is not about is the popularity of the Prime Minister. What this is not about is Liberal Party polling.
What this is not about is making a Party-political ad. And what this is not about is Scott Morrison’s own image. ”
Note that Marles is not/not the leader.
Lizzie
“Criminal negligence. Manslaughter. Environmental vandalism.”
Serious question to any PB lawyers: is there a case to go after professional climate change denialists on fraud charges? I know there is a right to free speech, but that applies to private opinions. We know there are peopel who are paid to come up with arguments to sustain climate change denial, and they know the arguments are false, but are paid to make them up. Once money enters into the question, is that not fraud?
As I said before, Labor needs to demand a royal commission into these bushfires, their causes and what to do tp better prepare for next time, since this is the new normal.
[‘Prime Minster Scott Morrison and other politicians have copped heavy criticism for holidaying overseas during the bushfire crisis.
Responding to questions today about her whereabouts, federal Defence Minister Linda Reynolds confirmed she spent a ‘‘few days’’ in Bali over Christmas.’]
In addition to Morrison and Elliott, yet another who left their post in a time of a crisis. And I doubt it was for just a “few days”. Given her military background (a brigadier in the Australian Army Reserve), she should’ve known better and was it her absence that took Morrison so long before committing reserves to the crisis?
‘Pegasus says:
Sunday, January 5, 2020 at 12:54 pm
Has Albanese come out to say the Greens are not to blame for the fires?”
Tin ear Peg!
Do you mean those very same Greens who have been calling Labor ‘arsonists’?
Soc
There are some biggies in the pipeline:
https://insideclimatenews.org/news/04042018/climate-change-fossil-fuel-company-lawsuits-timeline-exxon-children-california-cities-attorney-general
For TPOF
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VrHjXY893IQ
PvO is hosting The Project this week, so let’s see if Scotty is brave enough to be interviewed by a journalist who isn’t going to blow smoke up his ass. Figuratively speaking, of course.
Pegasus says:
Sunday, January 5, 2020 at 12:54 pm
Has Albanese come out to say the Greens are not to blame for the fires?
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The greens and Labor supporters equally should concentrate on not allowing the libs/nats to get off the backfoot
Instead of trying to get into debate with Labor supporters , attack the libs/nats
The Eden fuel oil bunker tanks are unlikely to ignite.
But if they were to ignite, it would be a biggie!
I expect that Morrison will be gone before the election. As much as sections of the media will polish the turd, the memory of his serial incompetence and lack of concern for fellow Australians probably will not fade enough. Of course some of that depends on Labor being able (and willing) to remind people of it often. He definately won’t be gone soon – part of it will depend on how much damage in the polls, but the Libs would be happy for him to soak up some more blows before switching to a new leader (see Abbott -> Turnbull).
Of course, that just opens the way for the Libs to put in another shyster to try and grind out another election win.
Whoopsie. This in a town that built the Snowy Hydro!
https://www.news.com.au/national/nsw-act/news/huge-water-tower-reservoir-explodes-spilling-thousands-of-litres-into-town/news-story/27bf58d4a97743123359719167e601da