Newspoll breakdowns: November-December 2019

Aggregated polling breakdowns from Newspoll offer never-before-seen detail on voting intention by income and education, together with state, gender and age.

Something new under the sun today from Newspoll, with The Australian ($) publishing the first set of aggregated breakdowns since the election. This would appear to be limited to the new-look poll that was launched last month, which has dropped its telephone component and is now conducted entirely online. Only two results have been published in that time, but there is evidently more behind this poll than that, as the survey period extends back to November 7 and the sample size of 4562 suggests three polling periods rather than two.

The results as published are of interest in providing never-before-seen breakdowns for education level (no tertiary, TAFE/technical or tertiary) and household income (up to $50,000, up to $100,000, up to $150,000, and beyond). Including the first of these as a weighting variable promises to address difficulties pollsters may have been having in over-representing those with good education and high levels of civic engagement. However, the poll gives with one hand and takes with the other, in that it limits the state breakdowns are limited to New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland. And it falls well short of the promised new age of pollster transparency, providing no detail on how the various sub-categories have been weighted.

The state breakdowns suggest either that Labor has recovered slightly in Queensland since the election, or that polling is still struggling to hit the mark there. The Coalition is credited with a two-party lead of 55-45, compared with 58.4-41.6 at the election. Their primary vote is 40%, down from 43.7%, with Labor up from 26.7% to 29%, One Nation up from 8.9% to 13%, and the Greens up from 10.3% to 12%. The Coalition lead in New South Wales is 51-49, compared with 51.8-48.2 at the election, from primary votes of Coalition 42% (42.5%), Labor 35% (34.6%) and Greens 10% (8.7%). Labor’s lead in Victoria is 53-47, barely different from the election result of 53.1-46.9, from primary votes of Coalition 40% (38.6%), Labor 38% (36.9%) and Greens 12% (11.9%).

Age breakdowns consist of four cohorts rather than the old three, and tell a globally familiar story of Labor dominating among the 18-to-34s with a lead of 57-43, while the 65-plus cohort goes 61-39 the other way. In between are a 50-50 from 35-49s and 51-49 to the Coalition among 50-64s. The primary votes are less radical than the recent findings of the Australian Election Study survey: the primary votes among the young cohort are Coalition 34%, Labor 35% and Greens 22%, compared with 37%, 23% and 28% respectively in the AES.

Reflecting polling in Britain, there is little distinction in the balance of major party support between the three education cohorts (UPDATE: actually not so – I was thinking of social class, education was associated with Labor support), contrary to the traditional expectation that the party of the working class would do best among those with no tertiary education. The Coalition instead leads 52-48 among both that cohort and the university-educated, with Labor leading 51-49 among those with TAFE or other technical qualifications. However, household income breakdowns are more in line with traditional expectation, with Labor leading 53-47 at the bottom end, the Coalition leading 51-49 in the lower-middle, and the Coalition leading 58-42 in both of the upper cohorts.

Leadership ratings turn up a few curiosities, such as Scott Morrison rating better in Victoria (46% on both approval and disapproval) than New South Wales (41% and 51%) and Queensland (43% and 51%). Conversely, Anthony Albanese is stronger in his home state of New South Wales (41% and 40%) than Victoria (37% and 42%) and Queensland (35% and 49%).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

7,114 comments on “Newspoll breakdowns: November-December 2019”

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  3. https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/criminal-liability-call-for-aged-care/news-story/314d0cf2197a16cb185ca81f33ed20cf

    Managers and management of aged-care providers should be made criminally liable for serious incidents of physical abuse of resident­s at their facilities, the royal commission has heard.

    In a new submission to the aged-care commission, advocacy group National Seniors warned that regulation in the industry had been “captured by providers and their owners” and said criminal sanctions were required to effec­t real change in behaviour of staff in their handling of older Australians in their care.

    Interesting article. Its a very complex area with no easy answers.

  4. lizzie @ #297 Friday, December 27th, 2019 – 6:07 am

    Bevan Shields
    @BevanShields
    ·
    8m
    Putting this one in the ‘Sentences I Never Thought I Would Have To Write’ file.
    The RSPCA is investigating after a prominent British lawyer boasted of clubbing a fox to death in central London while hungover and wearing his wife’s kimono.

    Asked to explain his actions by social media users, the barrister initially defended himself by arguing the fox was caught in protective netting around the chicken coop and that he “wasn’t sure what else to do”.

    https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/prominent-british-lawyer-sparks-outrage-after-clubbing-fox-to-death-while-dressed-in-a-kimono-20191227-p53n2n.html

    I had a look at this item a little earlier this morning.

    The obvious question to ask is —

    What is the appropriate dress code for the action involved and what was his wife wearing ❓

    Apart from that I’m not in favour of the action taken by the gentleman concerned.

  6. KayJay

    I can see the picture.
    Hears squawking from hen house in the night, grabs nearest garment to cover his nakedness, rushes out to find trapped fox, no gun, no poisoned dart available.

    His mistake was to post it on SM.

  8. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    Dana McCauley reports that a Sydney hospital allegedly offered a $500 incentive to boost private patient “conversions” and trained staff to sign consent forms on behalf of patients too sick to pick up a pen. Between this sort of behaviour and that of certain rapacious specialists our health system is being hurt.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/hospital-accused-of-training-staff-to-sign-private-patient-forms-to-boost-revenue-20191226-p53mzw.html
    Nick Bonyhady explains how draft legislation released on Christmas Eve would force APRA and ASIC to share information and tell each other about potential breaches of the law.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/regulators-forced-to-work-more-closely-together-under-new-laws-20191226-p53mxp.html
    Tony Windsor exclaims that this drying continent can’t afford Adani’s pipeline to 12.5 billion litres of precious water.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/this-drying-continent-can-t-afford-adani-s-pipeline-to-12-5-billion-litres-of-precious-water-20191208-p53hvm.html
    Psychologist Amanda Jeffreys says that this summer might well break some of our regional populations. They need help, she says.
    https://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/we-need-help-will-this-summer-break-regional-populations-20191226-p53mx7.html
    Nine Entertainment Co has criticised Facebook after a fake advertisement impersonating the media company’s masthead The Sydney Morning Herald surfaced on the social media website promoting a fake iPhone giveaway. Honestly, Facebook is s blight!
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/scams-impersonating-the-sydney-morning-herald-surface-20191224-p53mpg.html
    Daniel McNamara, who has worked on a number of campaigns, says that the future for Labor is in the cities, not the blue collar regional mirage. He might be on the money with this advice.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/labor-stop-chasing-the-blue-collar-regional-mirage-your-future-is-in-the-cities-20191216-p53kde.html
    The “awful lot” of text message reports Barnaby Joyce sent Scott Morrison as drought envoy will remain secret, with the prime minister’s office rejecting a freedom of information request to release the documents. Effin’ hopeless!
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/dec/27/pms-office-refuses-to-release-drought-reports-barnaby-joyce-says-he-sent-via-text
    The New South Wales government is poised to privatise the state’s plantation forests as part of a fresh round of sale and lease arrangements in 2020 to fund ambitious infrastructure projects.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/dec/27/nsw-poised-to-privatise-state-forests-to-raise-1bn-for-infrastructure-projects
    Tackling deep-seated ageism is one of the great challenges of this century. The impacts on people, on the workforce, on the broader economy are real and need immediate action from the government writes Patricia Sparrow.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/the-country-s-biggest-health-crisis-is-a-ticking-time-bomb-20191208-p53hvs.html
    Sam Maiden reveals that the resort has confirmed that Morrison upgraded to a $3174-a-night villa on his Fiji holiday.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2019/12/26/pm-declares-fiji-upgrades/
    Jenna Price is more than a bit ambivalent about the new Kylie Minogue tourism ad.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/when-kylie-became-the-white-queen-of-matesong-20191226-p53myx.html
    The Canberra Times urges the government to not make bushfire policy on the run.
    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6558049/dont-make-bushfire-policy-on-the-run/?cs=14258
    More than 140 applications to die have been made by terminally ill Victorians since voluntary assisted dying laws came into force on June 19.
    https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/five-applications-to-die-lodged-each-week-under-state-s-euthanasia-laws-20191226-p53mxr.html
    Chip Le Grand reports that Simon Overland was warned using Nicola Gobbo as a witness in a murder case could taint high-profile convictions and result in her suing Victoria Police.
    https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/gobbo-handlers-made-prescient-warning-of-law-suits-unsafe-convictions-20191226-p53myu.html
    Mike Foley tells us about Littleproud’s bushfire inquiry while some describe it as a stunt.
    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/political-stunt-federal-government-launches-bushfire-inquiry-to-probe-state-policy-20191223-p53mh3.html
    Republican US Senator Lisa Murkowski has said she was “disturbed” by the Senate leader’s approach to working with White House counsel on the impeachment trial of President Donald Trump, saying there should be distance between the two.
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2019/dec/26/trump-impeachment-lisa-murkowski-disturbed-by-mitch-mcconnells-stance
    “Arseholes of the Week” nomination goes to the operators of The Vales nursing home in SA for this appalling effort!
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/2019/12/26/christmas-lunch-nursing-home/

    Cartoon Corner

    From Matt Golding.



    Andrew Dyson and the future for some farmers.

    Mark David with a return.

    A ripper from Alan Moir.
    +
    Johannes Leak does it again!
    https://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/5b88523f8db1ee0d81eae483a16b5a7d?width=1024

    From the US






  9. Lizzie, sorry to hear that as i find chooks to be amusing creatures and not only do i get eggs but the manure is great for the garden. And to the fox being native to England i have no idea if they are or not.

  10. lizzie @ #304 Friday, December 27th, 2019 – 7:04 am

    KayJay

    I can see the picture.
    Hears squawking from hen house in the night, grabs nearest garment to cover his nakedness, rushes out to find trapped fox, no gun, no poisoned dart available.

    His mistake was to post it on SM.

    Mark Sterlson @ #303 Friday, December 27th, 2019 – 7:02 am

    KayJay, i have seen the devastation a fox can do to a coop full of chooks and if i catch one trying to get at my girls it will end up the same way.

    Appropriately chastened I retreat to my position of …………. (missionary I suppose) and venture back to watering my pot plants.

    So far I have watered four or five plus a leaking hose connector dripped into my quality designer left slipper, soaking my sock and reminding me that I should perhaps wait for the movie regarding events such as those described.

    Lizzie, you are a wonder. You have plucked from the night miasma the fact that Lawyer Z does not sleep in his wife’s gear, but slumbers au naturel. The movie could take advantage of this, hiring Mr. Whatsisname (he (ex MP) of the ladies frillies) as a wardrobe director.

    Back to fix the hose connectors.🌷 💐🥀

    Dawn Patrol.. Yea ❗

  11. KayJay
    Lenovo IdeaPad S340 15.6-inch i5-1035G1/8GB/256GB SSD Laptop
    This was the best available with good processor, SSD, good sized screen and 1920 resolution.

  16. BK @ #308 Friday, December 27th, 2019 – 4:13 am

    Tony Windsor exclaims that this drying continent can’t afford Adani’s pipeline to 12.5 billion litres of precious water.
    <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/national/this-drying-continent-can-t-afford-adani-s-pipeline-to-12-5-billion-litres-of-precious-water-20191208-p53hvm.html&quot;

    And yet some (a very small minority admittedly) advocate for Adani going ahead, because it will apparently win truckloads of votes in Queensland.

    When this disaster in waiting becomes common knowledge, or worse when it becomes a full blown disaster, anyone who gave this the green light will be tarred and feathered electorally speaking. Perhaps even literally.

  17. Rick Wilson’s boxing day message to his fellow Americans :

    Rick Wilson‏Verified account @TheRickWilson

    All Merry? All bright? Lovely family time?

    Good.

    Let’s get back to work. There’s a Republic to save from a madman.

  18. With hindsight (a very popular ability at the moment, apparently), I think it’s worth revisiting this biting piece by Jenna Price from Dec 12, before ScoMo took his “can’t disappoint the family” leave.

    Scott Morrison is not without empathy. As soon as he was elected, he flew to Queensland’s northwest to meet graziers from Cloncurry and Julia Creek, whose properties had been flooded. About half a million head of livestock were killed. And his opening words to them? “I’ve got one simple question, which is really a statement: how good is Cloncurry?”
    …
    It’s also true that on December 8, months after fires began their devastation of NSW, he visited the NSW Rural Fire Service headquarters in Wilberforce to thank the firefighters and to get the latest updates. Photos emerged of Morrison at the NSWRFS with hands in pockets gazing at a map. He is often seen at emergency headquarters, in discussions with firefighters and police, with others who have institutionalised power. I’m glad he managed to squeeze in Wilberforce and also had time to drop into Lachlan and Sarah Murdoch’s Christmas drinks a few days before. Not sure whether he wore chinos and a blue open-necked shirt that night.
    …
    He goes but he doesn’t go often. He doesn’t go instantly. And as Australia burns and chokes, he’s busy campaigning for an imaginary religious discrimination emergency instead of a climate emergency.

    There is one other major difference between Ardern and Morrison. Ardern campaigned with relentless positivity and a raft of policies. Morrison used fear and uncertainty and a scrappy handful of ideas around destroying unions; perceived threats to religious freedom; and borders secure from a handful of asylum seekers held in offshore detention.
    …
    For this government, everything is a transaction. When everything is about making a deal, nothing is about considering the hopes and fears, the concerns and the horror, of a nation burning.

    https://www.theage.com.au/national/the-incredible-telling-difference-between-ardern-and-morrison-20191212-p53jd8.html

  19. Encourage tourists?

    @brianstandlick
    ·
    13m

    I live in bondi and it has been dead again this year.The backpackers talk about being taxed on their fruit picking earnings which they normally do after blowing their savings in the three summer months. Scotty from marketing did this when he was treasurer. This guy is an idiot.

  20. BK,
    You’ve got yourself a good laptop there. They must be solid workhorses because I noticed the guys in the Telstra shop using them the other day. And they get constant use!

  21. lizzie @ #319 Friday, December 27th, 2019 – 7:43 am

    Encourage tourists?

    @brianstandlick
    ·
    13m

    I live in bondi and it has been dead again this year.The backpackers talk about being taxed on their fruit picking earnings which they normally do after blowing their savings in the three summer months. Scotty from marketing did this when he was treasurer. This guy is an idiot.

    Honestly, nice and all as she is, I think Kylie will hardly sell Australia to the Brits. Well, to the younger Brit Backpackers anyway. She’s more a Gen X icon.

  23. Danama Papers,
    And a Queensland state LNP government comes with added land clearing! Voting is not a purity test. In Queensland they have decided they want bad or badder. They probably all idolise George Thoroughgood as well. 😉

  24. Trump Rips ‘Crazy Nancy’ Hours After His Christmas-Morning Call for Unity

    President Trump couldn’t even keep up the charade for a day. Hours after a Christmas-morning statement calling for respect and unity, he was banging out rage-filled tweets targeting his political rival. It was a fast turnaround, even for Trump, whose insincere nod to civility was as real as flying reindeer.

    In the “Presidential Message on Christmas,” released Wednesday by the White House, Trump said, “Together, we must strive to foster a culture of deeper understanding and respect — traits that exemplify the teachings of Christ.”

    The Christmas-morning statement was clearly phony, and by that evening, Trump proved it. “

    Why should Crazy Nancy Pelosi, just because she has a slight majority in the House, be allowed to Impeach the President of the United States? Got ZERO Republican votes, there was no crime, the call with Ukraine was perfect, with “no pressure.” She said it must be “bipartisan…
    — Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) December 26, 2019

    http://nymag.com/intelligencer/2019/12/trump-rips-crazy-nancy-just-after-christmas-call-for-unity.html

  26. Danama Papers

    I’m looking forward to it becoming a “full blown disaster”. No amount of weasel words, pork barreling , clever accounting or Murdoch press will be able to hide the reality .

  27. Remember David Elliot? NSW Liberal Minister for Police and Emergency Services, including the Fire Brigade and Rural Fire Services, was previously best known for road-raging an 18 year old for cutting him off, and impersonating a police officer during the unsavoury event.

    Well now he has shown the ‘tin ear’ emblematic of his party, which may broaden his fame.

    By SAHAR MOURAD FOR DAILY MAIL AUSTRALIA and AUSTRALIAN ASSOCIATED PRESS
    PUBLISHED: 01:36 AEDT, 27 December 2019 | UPDATED: 02:27 AEDT, 27 December 2019

    The Emergency Services minister will travel to Europe for a family holiday amid the bushfire crisis – less than a week after Scott Morrison apologised for his trip to Hawaii.

    David Elliot, the MP for Baulkham Hills in western Sydney, and his wife will jet off to London and France, but he said his mind will be on the communities affected by the ferocious fires while he’s away.

    ‘Bushfire-affected communities and firefighters are always at the front of my mind during this difficult time in NSW,’ he told The Daily Telegraph.

    ‘I have toured over a dozen fire lines in the past six weeks and, together with the Premier and the Commonwealth, we have announced more than $88 million in ­recovery assistance to bushfire affected communities.’

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7827855/Emergency-services-minister-David-Elliot-fly-London-week-PMs-Hawaii-trip.html

  29. sprocket_
    David Elliott must be Gladys’ muscle. I can’t think of any other reason for her to keep supporting him. And her conduit to the pubs and clubs.

  30. For those keen to understand what has happened in the Democratic Presidential nomination campaign so far.

    Absolutely, nothing!

    Gabriel Debenedetti
    @gdebenedetti
    RCP average, 12/19/19:
    Biden – 27.8
    Sanders – 19.3

    RCP average, 12/19/18:
    Biden – 27.5
    Sanders – 19.0

    happy almost 2020!

  32. NY Times perspective on Biden’s strength..

    CRESTON, Iowa — The voters at campaign events for Joseph R. Biden Jr. here in Iowa and across the country aren’t just shopping for a candidate for themselves.

    As they jostle to take pictures with the former vice president and listen to him preach about national unity, they are often thinking about someone else — a dad, a neighbor or a colleague. They consider the political leanings of people close to them who are uncomfortable with the most liberal presidential contenders, but who hate the chaos of the Trump era and are receptive to the kind of centrist, seasoned candidacy Mr. Biden offers.

    Some Democrats have been warning the party not to obsess over these potential swing voters, arguing that electability calculations about mythical undecided moderates are futile at this moment of extreme political polarization.

    But for many Biden supporters, those voters are their Republican-leaning relatives and friends. And their perspectives are an increasingly prominent consideration as the Iowa caucuses near.‘

    https://www.nytimes.com/2019/12/25/us/politics/joe-biden-2020-republicans.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage

  33. On the Overland train about to depart Adelaide for Melbourne. It will be discontinued after 132 years on Dec 31 due to liberal cuts.

  34. C@tmomma @ #323 Friday, December 27th, 2019 – 4:48 am

    Danama Papers,
    And a Queensland state LNP government comes with added land clearing! Voting is not a purity test. In Queensland they have decided they want bad or badder. They probably all idolise George Thoroughgood as well. 😉

    I’m fully aware that the Libs will be far worse than anything Labor can do. My “tar and feathering” comment is just as applicable to them as it is to Labor, or any other party that promotes it.

    Having said that, I very much doubt the Greens will get any benefit from their opposition to it in those regions. Not until the current generation(s) are replaced at least. So, a long way off by which time it’ll be too late.

  35. sprocket_

    …….but he said his mind will be on the communities affected by the ferocious fires while he’s away.

    What a lazy bastard . Not making the effort of an “and prayers” to go with his “thoughts” .


  36. Tony Windsor exclaims that this drying continent can’t afford Adani’s pipeline to 12.5 billion litres of precious water.
    <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/national/this-drying-continent-can-t-afford-adani-s-pipeline-to-12-5-billion-litres-of-precious-water-20191208-p53hvm.html&quot;

    Finally someone mentions why Adani should not go ahead. Has nothing to do with exporting mining jobs to Indonesia. Pity the Greens have done such a good job of hiding the real reason.

  38. Danama Papers @ #336 Friday, December 27th, 2019 – 7:59 am

    C@tmomma @ #323 Friday, December 27th, 2019 – 4:48 am

    Danama Papers,
    And a Queensland state LNP government comes with added land clearing! Voting is not a purity test. In Queensland they have decided they want bad or badder. They probably all idolise George Thoroughgood as well. 😉

    I’m fully aware that the Libs will be far worse than anything Labor can do. My “tar and feathering” comment is just as applicable to them as it is to Labor, or any other party that promotes it.

    Having said that, I very much doubt the Greens will get any benefit from their opposition to it in those regions. Not until the current generation(s) are replaced at least. So, a long way off by which time it’ll be too late.

    Sad, but true. And we’ll see what Scrote announces next month in India to add to the horror. Therefore, my only hope is to keep fighting for Labor state governments in Queensland and, hopefully, in 2022, a federal one as well.

  40. It’s both ironic and a tragedy that we pride ourselves on a health system that enables us to live longer, but the greater number of older citizens has been regarded as a burden since Peter Costello looked at some statistics. Now the LNP is reducing as much Aged funding as it can. Perhaps they’re secretly hoping we’ll all die off.

    https://www.smh.com.au/national/the-country-s-biggest-health-crisis-is-a-ticking-time-bomb-20191208-p53hvs.html

  44. @UrbanWronski
    ·
    25m

    Let’s get this straight. Telling the truth about Joyce tweeting detailed top secret drought information would play havoc with the PM’s functions?
    One of which is to implement a code designed to keep ministers accountable?
    Morrison’s mob got that one out of a Christmas cracker.

  49. C@tmomma @ #340 Friday, December 27th, 2019 – 8:22 am

    Quoll being simplistic and abusive. Again.
    Keep those votes rolling in for the LNP in Queensland, Quoll! 🙄

    Just another goldfish of PB. Forgets that she said the same thing yesterday and the day before and the day before.

    Fun fact: Did you know goldfish are a carp? Seems appropriate imho.

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