Newspoll breakdowns: November-December 2019

Aggregated polling breakdowns from Newspoll offer never-before-seen detail on voting intention by income and education, together with state, gender and age.

Something new under the sun today from Newspoll, with The Australian ($) publishing the first set of aggregated breakdowns since the election. This would appear to be limited to the new-look poll that was launched last month, which has dropped its telephone component and is now conducted entirely online. Only two results have been published in that time, but there is evidently more behind this poll than that, as the survey period extends back to November 7 and the sample size of 4562 suggests three polling periods rather than two.

The results as published are of interest in providing never-before-seen breakdowns for education level (no tertiary, TAFE/technical or tertiary) and household income (up to $50,000, up to $100,000, up to $150,000, and beyond). Including the first of these as a weighting variable promises to address difficulties pollsters may have been having in over-representing those with good education and high levels of civic engagement. However, the poll gives with one hand and takes with the other, in that it limits the state breakdowns are limited to New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland. And it falls well short of the promised new age of pollster transparency, providing no detail on how the various sub-categories have been weighted.

The state breakdowns suggest either that Labor has recovered slightly in Queensland since the election, or that polling is still struggling to hit the mark there. The Coalition is credited with a two-party lead of 55-45, compared with 58.4-41.6 at the election. Their primary vote is 40%, down from 43.7%, with Labor up from 26.7% to 29%, One Nation up from 8.9% to 13%, and the Greens up from 10.3% to 12%. The Coalition lead in New South Wales is 51-49, compared with 51.8-48.2 at the election, from primary votes of Coalition 42% (42.5%), Labor 35% (34.6%) and Greens 10% (8.7%). Labor’s lead in Victoria is 53-47, barely different from the election result of 53.1-46.9, from primary votes of Coalition 40% (38.6%), Labor 38% (36.9%) and Greens 12% (11.9%).

Age breakdowns consist of four cohorts rather than the old three, and tell a globally familiar story of Labor dominating among the 18-to-34s with a lead of 57-43, while the 65-plus cohort goes 61-39 the other way. In between are a 50-50 from 35-49s and 51-49 to the Coalition among 50-64s. The primary votes are less radical than the recent findings of the Australian Election Study survey: the primary votes among the young cohort are Coalition 34%, Labor 35% and Greens 22%, compared with 37%, 23% and 28% respectively in the AES.

Reflecting polling in Britain, there is little distinction in the balance of major party support between the three education cohorts (UPDATE: actually not so – I was thinking of social class, education was associated with Labor support), contrary to the traditional expectation that the party of the working class would do best among those with no tertiary education. The Coalition instead leads 52-48 among both that cohort and the university-educated, with Labor leading 51-49 among those with TAFE or other technical qualifications. However, household income breakdowns are more in line with traditional expectation, with Labor leading 53-47 at the bottom end, the Coalition leading 51-49 in the lower-middle, and the Coalition leading 58-42 in both of the upper cohorts.

Leadership ratings turn up a few curiosities, such as Scott Morrison rating better in Victoria (46% on both approval and disapproval) than New South Wales (41% and 51%) and Queensland (43% and 51%). Conversely, Anthony Albanese is stronger in his home state of New South Wales (41% and 40%) than Victoria (37% and 42%) and Queensland (35% and 49%).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

7,114 comments on “Newspoll breakdowns: November-December 2019”

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  2. For the Poll Bludger Literature pages.

    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/commentary/our-prime-ministers-need-a-holiday-and-time-to-read-a-novel-for-pleasure/news-story/59ab7bae99a7491480852b7066da5b62

    The criticism of Scott Morrison for taking a short holiday in ­Hawaii was absurd if not at times demented. That the busiest man in Australia might want to spend some time exclusively with his wife and young daughters, and they with him, is normal, good and something we should encourage.

    The Morrison experience probably means no PM will ever take an overseas holiday again, which also probably means never really being away from the busyness of the prime ministership. The Twitter criticism of Morrison was the usual sewer stuff, though not all the desire to have the PM with us at a time of national distress was unworthy.

    Having dismissed Mr. Morrison’s perhaps “missing in inaction” sojourn in the wilds of a US Military boozer out Hawaii way.

    Musical intermission.

    ♫ On the isle of ♪ Filalilla out Hawaii ♪ way
    ♪ A hula maiden ♪ gay strolled by a ♫ moonlit bay
    ♫ There come a ♫ to court her over ♪ the water
    ♪from a savage ♪ Zingazulu ♫ land
    ♫ A Bolo chieftain ♫ grand sang ♪ her this lay

    Now where was I ❓ Ah yes – the ever so forthright Mr. G. Sheridan continuing in his circuitous pointlessness – goes on –

    Summer is as sacred a holiday time for us as August is for the French. An Australian beach holiday not only means unwinding, a bit more exercise than usual, time with family and close friends or casual holiday neighbours, but also, often, reading for enjoyment.

    Recommended reading – Sword of Honour trilogy concerning Guy Crouchback, a mildly upper class Catholic of no distinction who ­enlists in the British Army at the beginning of World War II. Guy has been betrayed by his wife and is at a loose end.

    Flasback to the article in question – comes with a small bottle of sweet mustard sauce

    But prime ministers need holidays, for our sakes as well as theirs. Tony Abbott and Kevin Rudd, two such different men, both possessed the highest intellectual capabilities but both would have been ­better PMs if they’d taken a bit more down time.

    Also recommended (back to reading)
    John P. Marquand, a monstrously neglected American ­author, with “H.M. Pulham Esq”
    and
    Willa Cather’s My Antonia is a novel centred on a bohemian ­immigrant in the Nebraska prairies a century ago. (This one lest we were thinking that only dudes know how to write).

    and so on …

    Finally

    One week a year, a PM should read a novel like this.

    Who could argue successfully against that ❓ Although doing the reading on an island thousands of miles from where his constituents are facing humongous fires and the country is said to be (courtesy of the “New York Times” )

    SYDNEY — Australia’s most populous state declared its second emergency in as many months on Thursday as extreme heat and strong winds stoked scores of uncontrolled bushfires, some on Sydney’s doorstep.

    In the same week the continent recorded its hottest day on record, thick smoke blanketed the harbour city, shrouded the Opera House and brought many outdoor activities to a halt.

    Kettle on – coffee for two Muriel. ☕☕

  3. I love Cud Chewer! From the previous blog he introduced us to ‘coal rollers’. Now I have a new name for Scott Morrison. The Coaly Roller. Ties his proselytising about coal in with his religion perfectly.

  5. Good morning revellers and Boxing Day bargain hunters.

    It’s now understood, Gergen said, that “acts of God” needn’t be supernatural. “Lightning and piracy are both acts of God,” he said.
    https://www.theage.com.au/world/north-america/act-of-god-how-did-he-make-it-into-millions-of-contracts-20191225-p53mtm.html
    There’s precious little Christmas spirit evident in the government’s agenda – no spirit of solidarity with the volunteer firefighters and their families who “want to be there” risking their lives for their communities; no spirit of generosity for people seeking asylum who’ve been cut off from income and housing support; and no spirit of charity for elderly Australians spending Christmas waiting for a meaningful response to the crisis in aged care.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/dec/25/an-end-to-morrisons-mean-spiritedness-is-the-christmas-gift-australia-needs
    The P2 dust masks worn by many are of particular concern, Mr Holton said, and some volunteers are asking for better respiratory protection to be provided. Those requests, Mr Holton said, are being too readily dismissed.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/finance/finance-news/2019/12/25/volunteer-firefighter-safety/?utm_source=Adestra&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Morning%20News%20-%2020191226
    Was Mary a virgin? Did she stay a virgin? The confusion goes back to Christ’s early followers, who turned a biological necessity into a vice
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/dec/24/christianity-sex-nativity-virgin-mary
    Regardless of the outcome in the new year, the judgment should be a moment for political parties to stop and reflect on the arms race of misinformation in electoral campaigning.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/dec/24/from-mediscare-to-chisholms-signs-its-time-for-political-parties-to-declare-a-truce-in-the-misinformation-war
    Good luck to all air travellers during the holidays.
    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2019/dec/24/disabled-woman-left-stranded-in-asia-after-wheelchair-lost-in-flight
    Helicopters dropped water on the outskirts of the Chilean port city of Valparaíso to extinguish a fire that destroyed more than 150 homes on Wednesday. Wildfires have affected parts of Valparaíso several times in the past month as Chile contends with its worst drought on record.
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/dec/25/helicopters-drop-water-on-chilean-city-after-fire-destroys-homes
    What is it like to see a word you invented get into the dictionary? And how does it feel if it spirals out of control, in ways you never intended?
    https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2019/dec/25/woke-to-gammon-buzzwords-by-people-coined-them
    There has not been much good news for life on Earth this year, with up to 1m species at risk of annihilation, many within decades. But scientists, conservationists and armies of volunteers are working relentlessly to understand and preserve endangered species. Here are 10 biodiversity stories that provided a glimmer of hope
    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/gallery/2019/dec/24/ten-wildlife-conservation-success-stories-2019-aoe

  7. Sorry to cut your lunch, lizzie but this story needs to be out there. The Coaly Rollers in the Coalition never seem to let a good disaster go to waste. They are truly monsters:

    The Morrison government has called its second inquiry in two years into land-clearing and controlled burn-offs, with some experts calling for the federal government to play a bigger role in combating natural disasters after the current bushfire crisis.

    Natural Disaster and Emergency Management Minister David Littleproud has instructed the House of Representatives Standing Committee on the Environment and Energy to investigate the effect of past and current vegetation and land management practices on bushfires.

    …Mr Littleproud declined to respond when asked this week why the current inquiry maintained a focus on state jurisdictions, despite the advice of a previous committee.

    Wilderness Society policy director Tim Beshara called the inquiry a “political stunt” and said it was the reason the “public don’t trust the government to review their own performance or to learn from their failings”.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/political-stunt-federal-government-launches-bushfire-inquiry-to-probe-state-policy-20191223-p53mh3.html

  8. Thanks C@t.

    Age and SMH won’t even let me read them incognito any more. 🙁

    This pic seems to be getting lots of likes on Twitter. Look at the virginal white! Oh the hypocrisy.

  13. Here are some cartoons to brighten up your day 🙂

    Andrew Dyson at the Boxing Day Sales :

    Matt Golding looks at the team preparing the Boxing Day Test pitch:

    Andrew Weldon gives us a Boxing Day playlist:

    Matt Golding and the battle over Boxing Day Sale bargains:

    Matt Golding comments on the Surveillance State:

    Matt Golding on getting away from it all at the Sydney to Hobart Yacht Race:

    Matt Golding in the stands at the Boxing Day Cricket Test:

    And Dionne Gain ties the end of the festive season up nicely:

    I’d bring you FDOTM but The Guardian have him wrapped up tight. I advise you to look at it though, it’s good:
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/dec/18/the-greta-thunberg-lovely-award-for-driving-bitter-old-white-men-apoplectic-goes-to-

    Now from overseas:

    A lovely analysis of the White House plumbing by Matt Wuerker of Politico:

    By Mike Luckovich on the Senate Impeachment trial:

    Joel Pett’s view of a ‘Fair Hearing’ :

    Ann Telnaes of The Washington Post casts a sceptical eye over Lindsay Graham:

    Another Matt Wuerker comment:

    This is another lovely Mike Luckovich effort:

    And, finally another Matt Wuerker:

    Enjoy. 🙂

  16. ‘Add it to the pile of lies’: CNN guest destroys Rudy Giuliani for shamelessly falsifying his resume

    Trump attorney Rudy Giuliani launched a new Facebook page aimed at promoting his purported “investigation” in Ukraine, but it has been marred from the start by false claims the former New York mayor has made about his own work experience.

    In particular, Giuliani lists himself as a former United States attorney general and a current government employee. In reality, Giuliani never served as AG and he is not on the payroll of the federal government and only works as President Donald Trump’s personal lawyer.

    Rogin went on to say that Giuliani’s actions have done “nothing but confuse foreign countries and interject a lot of chaos” into global affairs.

    https://www.rawstory.com/2019/12/add-it-to-the-pile-of-lies-cnn-guest-destroys-rudy-giuliani-for-shamelessly-falsifying-his-resume/

  18. CC 2.59am (previous thread)
    I too was greatly disturbed by the “coal burner” dashcam video
    I was both disturbed and delighted by the “American dream ” video.
    Thank you.

  21. Based on the election survey and this data, it seems the demographic that is the biggest supporters of the social and ecological destruction of the world through fossil fuels business as usual. Is the old blokes who appear to want to dominate PB as well. As mentioned previously there seems to be a loud cabal of secret Smoko supporters here parading as Laborites or something. Both surveys suggest old blokes are the biggest supporters of Smoko and impediment to any change or chance for a decent future.

    For the PB dinosaurs carping about others, the data seems to suggest it the very demographic loudest here that need to get their shit together on climate change action.

  22. Ukraine whistleblower under constant threat of violence from Trump fans — and gets driven to work by armed guards

    The government official who filed a whistleblower complaint that led to the impeachment of President Donald Trump at times has to be driven into work by armed guards due to threats of violence against him by Trump supporters.

    The Washington Post reports that the whistleblower is accompanied by armed security officers when threats against him spike — a phenomenon that is “often seemingly spurred by presidential tweets.”

    The Post also reports that the whistleblower is just one of many national security officials who are now seen as “enemies” by the president and his loyalists — and some of these “enemies” were appointed by the president himself.

    https://www.rawstory.com/2019/12/ukraine-whistleblower-under-constant-threat-of-violence-from-trump-fans-and-gets-driven-to-work-by-armed-guards/

  23. Perhaps the missing factor in th polling is the “deplorable” co-efficiencies when collecting data, leading to a series of conflicting outcomes and overall inaccuracies.
    Are some factors immeasurable?

  24. Quoll
    I think you are being unfair and misreading what is being written. Many of the people you might see as “secret ScoMo fans” are long time ALP supporters that after a decade of pushing a policy are coming to the conclusion that policy objective isn’t matching what the traditional working class ALP voter wants. The ALP can’t win elections without doing better in Queensland, NSW or WA which are all mining dominated states and when it comes to older voters many were lost by the ALP’s ill-directed tax policies that were seen as attacking the financial security of retirees.

  25. Morning all – happy ‘post celebration-fog day’ …. otherwise known as the Boxing Day Test 😆

    Thanks for the stories and piccies.

    The demographic of voters is no surprise to anyone, is it? While many here are the more enlightened from the boomer ranks, the bulk of boomers had their mentalities cemented during the ‘greed is good’ eighties. It was a time when moral compasses were skewed for many and then reinforced by the Howard years when he wanted everyone to ‘own stuff’ or be their own ‘small business’ so he could diminish unionism.

    Morrison and his crew are products of both these.

  26. Lizzie

    If you like I could post simple instructions to enable reading
    SMH, The Age and Canberra times.

    I am currently under threat of visiting family so will be absent ( ❓ ) for an hour or so.

  28. KayJay

    Thank you. Until today I was able to read them all ‘incognito’, with occasional blips of the “you have exceeded your free number for the month”, but right on time this morning (!) that failed me, as did Outline.

    Under normal circumstances I don’t read many articles from The Age, which I used to subscribe to. Their overall ‘service’ (sic) has deteriorated IMO, even though their investigative journo pieces are excellent.

  29. Slim pickings from the Age today and much the same in the SMH

    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/political-stunt-federal-government-launches-bushfire-inquiry-to-probe-state-policy-20191223-p53mh3.html
    The federal government has called a second inquiry in two years into land-clearing and prescribed burning practices, despite such policies falling outside Commonwealth jurisdiction.

    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/merry-christmas-not-happy-holidays-how-our-leaders-spent-christmas-20191225-p53mu9.html
    The PM’s pastor delivered a sermon urging the faithful to preserve Christmas’ traditional religious character, while Anthony Albanese volunteered at the Exodus Foundation.

    For Victorians mainly
    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/audit-of-metro-tunnel-could-be-brought-forward-auditor-general-20191224-p53mrb.html
    There are growing concerns about the strains the Andrews government’s flagship infrastructure project is under.

  30. Given Smoko’s pm popularity as shown by Newspoll is stronger in Vic than NSW suggests it is more volatile on the down side. His abandonment of his post might be the closer look we Vics needed to test his calibre.

  32. “coal rolling ” is a tuning technique designed to extract maximum power from a turbo diesel engine that seems to be popular in US, Portugal and Russia.

    It is anti-social for sure, and completely unnecessary on road vehicles, but it’s not something that came about for the purposes of “triggering snowflakes”.

    I believe it originated in US Tractor Pull competitions:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jX19rkQbe30

  33. “A Sydney hospital” (which of course turns out to be the new, privately owned Northern Beaches Hospital) has been offering bonuses to admissions staff for converting public patients into private patients.

    Unfortunately, one staffer in Emergency took her “signing-up” duties too literally, and scribbled the patients’ signatures herself.

    Naughty!

    It’s no surprise to me that the health establishment, coyley named “a Sydney hospital” in the headline, was revealed as Northern Beaches in the body of the article. Obviously, even for them, outright forgery was a bit obvious.

    Over the last couple of years, a substantial cadre of the old Northern Sydney Local Health District public health “Workforce and Culture” staff have found their way to the new privatised Northern Beaches outfit.

    Those who were thrilled by the two-year saga, written up by me in these and other pages, regarding m’lady Her Indoors and her work place battle with the munters, outright liars and naked fascists àt or near her little hospital in Sydney’s northern reaches, will remember our protracted (and thankfully, ultimately victorious) dealings with the same sorry crew.

    It was all very predictable, indeed guaranteed to happen. It’s happened before in other Local Health Districts (e.g. Port Macquarie), and will happen again as long as Liberals continue to flog off public assets to their mates and donors comprising the Spiv Economy. Indeed, in true Spiv fashion, Northern Beaches Health (Healthscope) was sold to a Cayman Islands hedge fund immediately after opening its doors last year.

    The Spivs motto is “Never give a sucker an even break”. Their other motto is “A fish rots from the head.”

    We are so pleased to be rid of these mobsters. Healing of the sick is their least critical concern.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/sacked-hospital-employee-accused-of-forging-forms-to-boost-private-admissions-20191219-p53lej.html

  35. BB
    It is possibly time for some kind of review into the private sector hr profession because nearly every problem from underpayment to poor culture with excessive targets is hr related.

  36. bakunin @ #32 Thursday, December 26th, 2019 – 8:55 am

    “coal rolling ” is a tuning technique designed to extract maximum power from a turbo diesel engine that seems to be popular in US, Portugal and Russia.

    It is anti-social for sure, and completely unnecessary on road vehicles, but it’s not something that came about for the purposes of “triggering snowflakes”.

    I believe it originated in US Tractor Pull competitions:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jX19rkQbe30

    You have the anti social part right but if a diesel is putting out that much smoke it is far from obtaining maximum power. That is a sign that there is too much fuel for the amount of air in each cylinder with the result you end up with unburnt fuel and copious amounts of smoke. All turbo diesel’s will do it if the turbo dies.

  37. The Queen will be in the firing line from the usual suspects for saying things like this in her Christmas message:

    Queen acknowledges young people’s action on climate crisis

    (Guardian headline)

  38. Posted on Christmas day by CNN:

    Dr. Sayed Mirwais Rohani wanted to heal people, but he died a broken man.

    Trained in China, the young Afghan doctor fled the Taliban in Kabul only to become trapped in Australia’s offshore immigration detention system.

    He ended his own life in a Brisbane city hotel on October 15. He was 32.

    A coroner’s investigation into Rohani’s death is in its very early stages.

    The family’s lawyer, George Newhouse, says it deserves a full inquest. “His family want to get to the bottom of what happened to their son,” said Newhouse, from the non-profit legal service the National Justice Project.

    “But more importantly, to examine the systematic failures in the provision of healthcare that left an able-bodied doctor so seriously debilitated and in a state where it appears he took his own life.”

    Rohani died in Australia, but his family says his mental health problems began thousands of kilometers away in an Australian processing center on Manus Island in Papua New Guinea (PNG).

    https://edition.cnn.com/2019/12/24/australia/australia-refugee-death-intl-hnk/index.html

  40. Those figures for labor in Queensland even with all the usual qualifications indicate some move back to Labor there which may auger well for the Labor State Government there at the forthcoming Election.

  41. Here in Armidale we have had some decent rain over Christmas. Also it is nice to enjoy clean air instead of smoke for a change. Anyway here is an editorial from The Guardian.

    Anyway I see the Labor party’s challenge over the next two and half years is to win over voters older than 35. Because there probably not going to be enough young voters (who overwhelmingly votes for both Labor and Greens), to counter older voters who a majority voted for the Coalition

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/dec/25/the-guardian-view-on-the-rise-of-christian-nativist-populists-a-troubling-sign-of-things-to-come

  42. Just to help Quoll with the things that matter to Quoll, which appears to be writing abusive stuff about old white men, here are some thoughts.

    Bob Brown is, arguably, already there and has presumably been expelled by the Greens.

    But when exactly does Di Natale achieve old white man status?

    If he becomes prime minister at the next election and he reaches old white man status, will he be forced to resign by the Greens?

    When are Greens supporters expelled from the Party by becoming old white men?

  46. Morning all. Thanks William and others for today’s reports.

    Leadership ratings turn up a few curiosities, such as Scott Morrison rating better in Victoria (46% on both approval and disapproval) than New South Wales (41% and 51%) and Queensland (43% and 51%). Conversely, Anthony Albanese is stronger in his home state of New South Wales (41% and 40%) than Victoria (37% and 42%) and Queensland (35% and 49%).

    That appears to be at odds with media reporting, which often portrays Scotty as loved in his home state of NSW and not so much in Victoria.

    Shame the breakdowns don’t include other states as well.

  49. [‘Auntie Angie is sick of your shit

    @IrritatedAuntie
    ·
    Dec 24

    Fitzsimmons is saying the Volunteers efforts are worth nothing. Tell that to the thousands of people whose homes have been saved by them. The Vollies also have mortgages to pay and the never expected to be fighting this long. #PayThem #volunteerfiries
    Quote Tweet

    @SkyNewsAust

    · Dec 24

    Commissioner of the New South Wales Rural Fire Service Shane Fitzsimmons has strongly rejected the need for more financial compensation or for the volunteers to be paid for their firefighting efforts.

    https://bit.ly/2sVVquP'%5D

    You wouldn’t want Fitzsimmons in your corner. Not too many volunteers would I think knockback at least some financial assistance. And what would Berejiklian and SloMo do if they downed tools? Effusive praising of them, which they richly deserve, won’t pay their bills. Fitzsimmons is a proper dork.

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