Newspoll breakdowns: November-December 2019

Aggregated polling breakdowns from Newspoll offer never-before-seen detail on voting intention by income and education, together with state, gender and age.

Something new under the sun today from Newspoll, with The Australian ($) publishing the first set of aggregated breakdowns since the election. This would appear to be limited to the new-look poll that was launched last month, which has dropped its telephone component and is now conducted entirely online. Only two results have been published in that time, but there is evidently more behind this poll than that, as the survey period extends back to November 7 and the sample size of 4562 suggests three polling periods rather than two.

The results as published are of interest in providing never-before-seen breakdowns for education level (no tertiary, TAFE/technical or tertiary) and household income (up to $50,000, up to $100,000, up to $150,000, and beyond). Including the first of these as a weighting variable promises to address difficulties pollsters may have been having in over-representing those with good education and high levels of civic engagement. However, the poll gives with one hand and takes with the other, in that it limits the state breakdowns are limited to New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland. And it falls well short of the promised new age of pollster transparency, providing no detail on how the various sub-categories have been weighted.

The state breakdowns suggest either that Labor has recovered slightly in Queensland since the election, or that polling is still struggling to hit the mark there. The Coalition is credited with a two-party lead of 55-45, compared with 58.4-41.6 at the election. Their primary vote is 40%, down from 43.7%, with Labor up from 26.7% to 29%, One Nation up from 8.9% to 13%, and the Greens up from 10.3% to 12%. The Coalition lead in New South Wales is 51-49, compared with 51.8-48.2 at the election, from primary votes of Coalition 42% (42.5%), Labor 35% (34.6%) and Greens 10% (8.7%). Labor’s lead in Victoria is 53-47, barely different from the election result of 53.1-46.9, from primary votes of Coalition 40% (38.6%), Labor 38% (36.9%) and Greens 12% (11.9%).

Age breakdowns consist of four cohorts rather than the old three, and tell a globally familiar story of Labor dominating among the 18-to-34s with a lead of 57-43, while the 65-plus cohort goes 61-39 the other way. In between are a 50-50 from 35-49s and 51-49 to the Coalition among 50-64s. The primary votes are less radical than the recent findings of the Australian Election Study survey: the primary votes among the young cohort are Coalition 34%, Labor 35% and Greens 22%, compared with 37%, 23% and 28% respectively in the AES.

Reflecting polling in Britain, there is little distinction in the balance of major party support between the three education cohorts (UPDATE: actually not so – I was thinking of social class, education was associated with Labor support), contrary to the traditional expectation that the party of the working class would do best among those with no tertiary education. The Coalition instead leads 52-48 among both that cohort and the university-educated, with Labor leading 51-49 among those with TAFE or other technical qualifications. However, household income breakdowns are more in line with traditional expectation, with Labor leading 53-47 at the bottom end, the Coalition leading 51-49 in the lower-middle, and the Coalition leading 58-42 in both of the upper cohorts.

Leadership ratings turn up a few curiosities, such as Scott Morrison rating better in Victoria (46% on both approval and disapproval) than New South Wales (41% and 51%) and Queensland (43% and 51%). Conversely, Anthony Albanese is stronger in his home state of New South Wales (41% and 40%) than Victoria (37% and 42%) and Queensland (35% and 49%).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

7,114 comments on “Newspoll breakdowns: November-December 2019”

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  1. On the new Tourism Australia ad, Latika is a fan FWIW.

    Latika M BourkeVerified account@latikambourke
    7h7 hours ago
    Absolutely BRILLIANT Tourism Australia ad imploring Brexit-weary Brits Down Under starring Australia’s best sport @kylieminogue broadcast just before the actual Queen’s Message. Song by Eddie Perfect – this may be the best Aus Tourism ad yet.

    https://youtu.be/QMAq8F8N2Fg

  2. Speaking of nursing homes. A relative of mine has mother in law in a local facility which is run as a not for profit religious and charitable organisation for Melbourne’s elderly Italian population.
    They visit her regularly and are so impressed with the quality of food served to the residents.
    Home style food which is very appetising. Usually in the Italian style, such as pasta, risotto, vegetables, salads, frittata, schnitzels, etc.
    My relative has commented on how great the food is and how it actually engenders a better mood and atmosphere for the residents.

  3. The Coalition wears volunteers on its sleeve. It saves their spivs a buck.

    But perhaps free baked beans and mash for the Firey’s Christmas Dinner?

  4. Confessions says:
    Thursday, December 26, 2019 at 10:27 am

    On the new Tourism Australia ad, Latika is a fan FWIW.

    Latika M BourkeVerified account@latikambourke
    7h7 hours ago
    Absolutely BRILLIANT Tourism Australia ad imploring Brexit-weary Brits Down Under starring Australia’s best sport @kylieminogue broadcast just before the actual Queen’s Message. Song by Eddie Perfect – this may be the best Aus Tourism ad yet.
    ————————————–
    It is a waste of $15 million basically promoting Australia to people that already know who we are.

  5. Australia has a message for the United Kingdom: “Your besties across the ocean are calling.”

    It’s part of a new ad campaign aimed at getting British tourists to pack their bags and travel to the land down under.

    Singer Kylie Minogue is the face of the ad, encouraging our UK mates to forget their troubles (ahem, Brexit) and escape to easy-going Australia instead.

    If you haven’t seen the video yet, you’ll probably want to watch it first.

    Then scroll back down as we run through some of the things you might have missed.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-12-26/kylie-minogues-tourism-ad-to-britain/11827204

  6. Mexican:

    I don’t care if Brits come to visit, so long as they go home again. What worries me is once they Breixt and their economy tanks, we’re going to be overrun with British migrants moving here.

  7. I have no idea what would trigger a British tourist to go to Australia. FWIW, it seems to me that that ad might work. Particularly if winter is grey and soggy and everyone you meet down the street is grumpy.

    My suggestion would be something along the lines of ‘We don’t have Johnson, Farage or Corbyn Down Under to ruin your day.’

    But I suspect the target audience for that in the Auld Dart might be a bit small.

  8. (((Robbie Gratton))) ✊
    @RGratton
    .
    @ScottMorrisonMP
    & your mates better hope that in the coming weeks/months, the volunteers, who have bills to pay and have been fighting #fires since July, are still able to volunteer to defend your homes if they come under threat. #PayThem #auspol #nswfires #berejiklianbushfires
    8:27 PM · Dec 24, 2019·Twitter for iPhone

  9. ‘citizen says:
    Thursday, December 26, 2019 at 9:50 am

    The Queen will be in the firing line from the usual suspects for saying things like this in her Christmas message:

    Queen acknowledges young people’s action on climate crisis

    (Guardian headline)’

    She means Chuckie, Andy and Eddie.

  10. This is the end game for Republicans and what they cling to when resolutely refusing to dump Trump. It’s all about stacking the judiciary.

    Donald J. TrumpVerified account@realDonaldTrump
    Dec 24
    187 new Federal Judges have been confirmed under the Trump Administration, including two great new United States Supreme Court Justices. We are shattering every record! Read all about this in “The Long Game,” a great new book by @senatemajldr Mitch McConnell. Amazing story!

  11. “My suggestion would be something along the lines of ‘We don’t have Johnson, Farage or Corbyn Down Under to ruin your day.’”

    But we have Morrison, Hanson and… well, we don’t have a Corbyn style figure in any position of influence.

  12. rhwombat says:

    Thursday, December 26, 2019 at 10:51 am

    phoenixRED @ #19 Thursday, December 26th, 2019 – 7:46 am

    is that twice the point, or an umlaut? If the latter, how do you pronounce it?

    **************************************************

    Apologies – got distracted by grandkids roaring around with their new toys …………………. 🙂

  13. The WH might be colluding with Putin and his cronies, but authorities are still actively trying to stop the Russians from meddling in the 2020 election.

    Military cyber officials are developing information warfare tactics that could be deployed against senior Russian officials and oligarchs if Moscow tries to interfere in the 2020 U.S. elections through hacking election systems or sowing widespread discord, according to current and former U.S. officials.

    One option being explored by U.S. Cyber Command would target senior leadership and Russian elites, though probably not President Vladimir Putin, which would be considered too provocative, said the current and former officials who spoke on the condition of anonymity because of the issue’s sensitivity. The idea would be to show that the target’s sensitive personal data could be hit if the interference did not stop, though officials declined to be more specific.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/us-cybercom-contemplates-information-warfare-to-counter-russian-interference-in-the-2020-election/2019/12/25/21bb246e-20e8-11ea-bed5-880264cc91a9_story.html

  14. What could go wrong?

    When Syracuse University freshmen walk into professor Jeff Rubin’s Introduction to Information Technologies class, seven small Bluetooth beacons hidden around the Grant Auditorium lecture hall connect with an app on their smartphones and boost their “attendance points.”

    And when they skip class? The SpotterEDU app sees that, too, logging their absence into a campus database that tracks them over time and can sink their grade. It also alerts Rubin, who later contacts students to ask where they’ve been. His 340-person lecture has never been so full.

    “They want those points,” he said. “They know I’m watching and acting on it. So, behaviorally, they change.”

    Short-range phone sensors and campuswide WiFi networks are empowering colleges across the United States to track hundreds of thousands of students more precisely than ever before. Dozens of schools now use such technology to monitor students’ academic performance, analyze their conduct or assess their mental health.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2019/12/24/colleges-are-turning-students-phones-into-surveillance-machines-tracking-locations-hundreds-thousands/

  15. STOP PAYING TAX!!!

    The Australian Taxation Office does not exist as a legal entity, and has no constitutional basis to steal your wealth.

    This was proven in an October (1999) Federal court judgment (Justice Haines)

    If you voted NO to the second question on the 1999 republic referendum you actually voted to permit the government to ignore all of our constitution except section 9.

    64% of Australians voted to enslave themselves.

    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=efULRsalRi0

  16. Late Riser:

    It certainly is a scary insight into the present, not the future. People’s acceptance will just further encourage governments and corporations to push for more intrusion into our lives.

  17. The Boxing Day Test must be the most over hyped event of the year.
    It doesn’t even sell out, even when the Poms are here.
    An AFL Round match by Richmond for example gets a bigger crowd.

    Sydney to Hobart fun and games by multi multi millionaires must be a close second.

    As for the Tourism Ad- Kylie did a great job, with what she had to work with. A real pro.

  18. Kevin Rudd @MrKRudd
    · 1h
    The Murdoch media is wonderfully predictable. Like the grovelling factotum in today’s Daily Bugle, rallying to support Morrison. Without being propped up every day by Murdoch’s propaganda machine, Morrison et al would be exposed as the bunch of third rate drongos they really are.

  19. Re bay 13 etc.

    As a survivor and willing participant of the Gabba hill on the first day of a test series over many years I think one of the worst mistakes cricket and other authorities in general have made is to “ close down” such designated drinking areas at cricket and other sporting events.

    Back in the day if you went on the hill you knew what to expect and , in fact, that is what I enjoyed. You were on the hill with all the other drunks. You knew what the atmosphere would be. You knew there would be a few fights and other misbehaviour butt that was all part of the attraction. As well, with all the assorted riff raff herded together the police and security had a much easier job especially as the hill was, in many ways, self regulating. If you were a dickhead then you would carry the consequences with swift and effective retribution for your “ crimes”.

    Meanwhile, families and other patrons could sit and enjoy a peaceful day at the cricket safe and content in the knowledge that they would not be seated next to a group of drunken, swearing loudmouths. The occasional glance over at the idiots on the hill from their nice safe and peaceful seats was the only interaction ordinary cricket watchers would have with the great unwashed.

    Those were the days.

  20. Very disappointed in Shane Fitzsimmons, if his attitude to compensation for RFS volunteers has been reported correctly.

    It’s pretty clear he has some beef with the RFS Association’s President, Mick Holton. I heard Fitzsimmons state that the RFSA is “not truly representative” of RFS volunteers.

    Yet, the RFSA’s web site claims:

    The RFSA is officially recognised (in the Rural Fires Act 1997) and respected as the representative association of the 70,000 volunteers and staff members of the Rural Fire Service (RFS) in NSW.

    One would have thought there are limits on the commitment that volunteers can make. I know it’s the case with our local volunteers after three months. With several months more of fires yet to come, monetary compensation seems sensible. It might also attract more volunteers in the years and fires to come.

    Fitzsimmons’ opposition to monetary compensation seems strange, almost irrational. Perhaps there’s more to it than meets the eye.

  21. Torchbearer @ #80 Thursday, December 26th, 2019 – 11:39 am

    The Boxing Day Test must be the most over hyped event of the year.
    It doesn’t even sell out, even when the Poms are here.
    An AFL Round match by Richmond for example gets a bigger crowd.

    Sydney to Hobart fun and games by multi multi millionaires must be a close second.

    As for the Tourism Ad- Kylie did a great job, with what she had to work with. A real pro.

    Sure, 80,000 expected the first day and probably close to 200k by the end of the game.

    Reach of the game is enormous. It’ll be on in every pub and club plus many homes. It’s a tourist bucket list must do for many overseas visitors and generates millions of dollars for the Victorian economy. Some may even be stimulated enough to move on to that little shanty town called Sydney next week.

    But, you can live in your cave if you prefer.

  22. lizzie

    Boerwar

    There’s no need to think about the Greens shutting down any part of agriculture. It will happen “naturally”.

    Between Taylor ,Barnyard Joyce and their mates’ water ‘management’ we can expect a lot of MDB to start ‘naturally’ looking a bit like this. Who needs the Greens ?

  23. I allegedly owe the Australian Taxation Office a fairly substantial amount of money.

    I had entered into a contractional arrangement with the ATO to pay this alleged money back to them in monthly installments.

    Then I lost my main source of income, and called the ATO to explain to them that I no longer had the capacity to continue with the currennt contract.

    The entity I was speaking to asked me how much I could afford to pay, and when I told the entity how much, it put this information into its computer.

    But the computer said NO.

    I told the entity that it could not get blood out of a stone, and that I now deemed any prior contract to be void.

    As I earn most of my income from a corporation that I am the managing director of, and do not have a PAYG job, I now only pay the ATO what it requires for any given year.

    The back taxes I allegedly owe go nowhere.

    That phone call was they last contact with the ATO and it was almost 2 years ago.

    They have not attempted to call me and I have received not even a letter.

    They don’t exist.

  24. Not Sure:’64% of Australians voted to enslave themselves.’

    I presume that means allowing the government to tax people/companies.

    As much as I don’t like paying tax and get annoyed when governments waste it (thinking $25m to open Christmas Island for 4 people), I can see the merit in the government having the ability to raise tax.

    The alternative is Governments running their own businesses or governments who can’t fund programs or they must borrow to do so.

    I was thinking just the other day how we are being ‘taxed’ by another means. Road tolls, private health insurance, private school fees, all the government fees required to do something, eg for building inspectors, fees for various licences etc. Great if you can afford it, but you miss out when you can’t.


  25. Not Sure says:
    Wednesday, December 25, 2019 at 7:54 pm

    Frednk is presumably drunk, given it is Christmas, so might be forgiven.
    ..

    No mate stone cold sober and cannot thus be forgiven ( and not an excuse anyway).

    I hold the view that posting a link to an article by some right wing nutter posting rubbish as if it has any sort of value is at best an act of stupidity, at worst a deliberate act of trying to float a meme that is rubbish.

    I do not know what the solution is but this sort of activity is one of the ways the Liberals won the last election and a solution needs to be found.

    It is interesting that that sort of activity has suddenly increased given Morrison’s troubles. TTT duped or deliberate act of truth sabotage, I don’t know. We all post anonymously so it impossible to judge.

  26. Not Sure

    STOP PAYING TAX!!!

    The Australian Taxation Office does not exist as a legal entity, and has no constitutional basis to steal your wealth.

    Have you been hanging out at some US websites ? That is exactly what I have seen beiung claimed for years from various RW slightly to very NJ authors.


  27. That Kylie Minogue ad is embarrassing.

    Why you should visit Australia, a theses. And like all dissertations, lucky if it gets read by the examiners.


  28. Not Sure says:
    Thursday, December 26, 2019 at 11:35 am

    STOP PAYING TAX!!!


    Well when your going around wanking thus, spare a thought as to why freehold title works.

  29. Not Sure says:
    Thursday, December 26, 2019 at 11:35 am

    STOP PAYING TAX!!!

    Well when your going around wanking thus, spare a thought as to why freehold title works.

  30. BB
    Opposition to being paid is common among the CFA because they don’t see it as a job but see it a community service but that wouldn’t be universal.

  31. Kevin Rudd as quoted by Lizzie @ 11:40.
    “Without being propped up every day by Murdoch’s propaganda machine, Morrison et al would be exposed as the bunch of third rate drongos they really are.”

    Kevin is right.

    Most readers can probably see through it and go straight to the football or whatever, but elections are won and lost by a couple of percentage points at the margins. Also, the Murdoch crapsheets, along with commercial TV and social media, have a big role in spreading dominant memes: Greens and/or Labor preventing “backburning”; “dole bludgers”; demonisation of selected class enemies – individuals or groups; asylum seekers bludging on the dole and/or taking Aussie jobs…

  32. Lunch at the cricket so there’s footage of the Sydney-Hobart yachts leaving Sydney. Still looks like a smoke haze around the city, although much much better than what it has been recently.

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