Something new under the sun today from Newspoll, with The Australian ($) publishing the first set of aggregated breakdowns since the election. This would appear to be limited to the new-look poll that was launched last month, which has dropped its telephone component and is now conducted entirely online. Only two results have been published in that time, but there is evidently more behind this poll than that, as the survey period extends back to November 7 and the sample size of 4562 suggests three polling periods rather than two.
The results as published are of interest in providing never-before-seen breakdowns for education level (no tertiary, TAFE/technical or tertiary) and household income (up to $50,000, up to $100,000, up to $150,000, and beyond). Including the first of these as a weighting variable promises to address difficulties pollsters may have been having in over-representing those with good education and high levels of civic engagement. However, the poll gives with one hand and takes with the other, in that it limits the state breakdowns are limited to New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland. And it falls well short of the promised new age of pollster transparency, providing no detail on how the various sub-categories have been weighted.
The state breakdowns suggest either that Labor has recovered slightly in Queensland since the election, or that polling is still struggling to hit the mark there. The Coalition is credited with a two-party lead of 55-45, compared with 58.4-41.6 at the election. Their primary vote is 40%, down from 43.7%, with Labor up from 26.7% to 29%, One Nation up from 8.9% to 13%, and the Greens up from 10.3% to 12%. The Coalition lead in New South Wales is 51-49, compared with 51.8-48.2 at the election, from primary votes of Coalition 42% (42.5%), Labor 35% (34.6%) and Greens 10% (8.7%). Labor’s lead in Victoria is 53-47, barely different from the election result of 53.1-46.9, from primary votes of Coalition 40% (38.6%), Labor 38% (36.9%) and Greens 12% (11.9%).
Age breakdowns consist of four cohorts rather than the old three, and tell a globally familiar story of Labor dominating among the 18-to-34s with a lead of 57-43, while the 65-plus cohort goes 61-39 the other way. In between are a 50-50 from 35-49s and 51-49 to the Coalition among 50-64s. The primary votes are less radical than the recent findings of the Australian Election Study survey: the primary votes among the young cohort are Coalition 34%, Labor 35% and Greens 22%, compared with 37%, 23% and 28% respectively in the AES.
Reflecting polling in Britain, there is little distinction in the balance of major party support between the three education cohorts (UPDATE: actually not so – I was thinking of social class, education was associated with Labor support), contrary to the traditional expectation that the party of the working class would do best among those with no tertiary education. The Coalition instead leads 52-48 among both that cohort and the university-educated, with Labor leading 51-49 among those with TAFE or other technical qualifications. However, household income breakdowns are more in line with traditional expectation, with Labor leading 53-47 at the bottom end, the Coalition leading 51-49 in the lower-middle, and the Coalition leading 58-42 in both of the upper cohorts.
Leadership ratings turn up a few curiosities, such as Scott Morrison rating better in Victoria (46% on both approval and disapproval) than New South Wales (41% and 51%) and Queensland (43% and 51%). Conversely, Anthony Albanese is stronger in his home state of New South Wales (41% and 40%) than Victoria (37% and 42%) and Queensland (35% and 49%).
“I don’t understand the resistance.”
The Right want monopoly ownership of all of Australia’s national symbols. They would regard a change of date as a victory for class enemies.
‘torchbearer says:
Thursday, December 26, 2019 at 7:51 pm
As an aboriginal, the day Australian’s land and waters were invaded and taken by Europeans is not a day to celebrate.
Indonesia and China traded with Australia for centuries but chose not to invade and occupy- it is not automatic that this happens, it is a characteristic of violent, expansionary Europe.’
1. I am unaware of any trade between China and anyone inhabiting Australia prior to the invasion. Pre-British invasion chinese artefacts are virtually non-existent.
2. Australia was formed with Federation.
3. Prior to the British invasion Makassans harvested trepang and trochus in Australian coastal waters. this was destroyed deliberately by the British invaders. In the archaeology of the Australian continent’s north coast there is virtually no evidence of Makassan trade goods per se. There is evidence of contact, including introduction of at least one plant species, as well as movement of Indigenous people from Arhnhemland to Makasser and back, but this hardly constitutes anything like extensive trading.
4. The notion that China has not been violent and expansionary at various times in its history is, quite simply, laughable. Communist China has invaded and/or fought violently with every single country on its borders since 1949.
5. Indonesian trading and rice-growing precursors, prior to the Dutch invasion, also had a history of war, expansion and conquest. Post -colonial Indonesia has a violent and bloody history that continues to this day in the province of West Papua.
6. The British invasion was, effectively genocidal in intent and partly in practice over vast swathes of what now constitutes Australia.
7. There is plenty of evidence that demonstrates that Indigenous first nations had, at times, extremely violent relationships.
My views, FWIW are that:
1. Australia Day should be held on a different day.
2. That this is not a high priority.
3. That a Voice in the Body of the Constitution, a Treaty and Compensation are far higher priorities.
4. That extremists among the Far Left (including in the Greens) and the Far Right (including in the Nationals and PHON) will seek to skive off the Australia Day date stoush for grubby political purposes, noting that neither the Far Left in the Greens, or the Far Right in the Nationals, are achieving anything useful for First Nations.
‘Rex Douglas says:
Thursday, December 26, 2019 at 7:44 pm
Boerwar @ #243 Thursday, December 26th, 2019 – 7:36 pm
‘Rex Douglas says:
Thursday, December 26, 2019 at 7:29 pm
To insist on the 26/1 date is just arrogant and disrespectful.
We must change the date to a different day that allows all Australians to celebrate our mix of culture..’
Yet another thing the Greens have failed at for the last 30 years.
Why do you see everything through partisan political eyes …?’
As noted previously and elsewhere, the Greens have failed with this, as with everything else, for the last 30 years. Losing is their pride, their joy and their only consolation. If others, including First Nations people, have to be sacrificed along the way, so be it.
Hot cross buns in Coles today (including the horrible choc chip ones). Anything to do with Xmas seems to have disappeared. Pig food?
Boerwar says:
Thursday, December 26, 2019 at 8:17 pm
…..
4. That extremists among the Far Left (including in the Greens) and the Far Right (including in the Nationals and PHON) will seek to skive off the Australia Day date stoush for grubby political purposes, noting that neither the Far Left in the Greens, or the Far Right in the Nationals, are achieving anything useful for First Nations.
That about sums it up; cultural wars. We are facing the destruction of civilization as we know it and people engage in this?
Well I’m also all for changing the date of Australia Day, but as will be the case with a meaningful and effective response to climate change, this too will need a Labor govt to do it.
Sadly extreme weather conditions on pollbludger today – high bore threshold (anything over 10%) today it’s crazy high at 16% bore and c@t admixture. Stay indoors until the haze passes.
Danama Papers @ #246 Thursday, December 26th, 2019 – 7:51 pm
And I get all that. But this ‘growing number’, how many do you reckon that is? My estimation is, being generous, about 100000 max. Way short of the number needed to convince the other 25 million to change their mind. And yes, it may be a valid cause, however, under Scott Morrison’s watch you’re just wasting your time and energy.
Of course, it won’t stop the delusional dickheads in The Greens who don’t realise who is in power federally, using it as stick to beat Labor with. As per usual.
Do Liberal, National and One Nation supporters squabble on right wing blogs in the way that Labor and Green supporters do here?
I think it’s quite arguable that per-capita our contribution to dickheadry (and the study thereof) exceeds that of any other nation, past or present
Steve777 @ #259 Thursday, December 26th, 2019 – 8:50 pm
Why would they? They’re winning 🙁
I think the vain hope that Scrooter was going to crash and burn has really got to some here and they’re just floundering around aimlessly trying to get their bearings.
Mundo told you; Scrotto had it all under control. When Albo showed his soft underbelly Scrooter knew he was home and hosed.
Steve777 @ #259 Thursday, December 26th, 2019 – 8:50 pm
Do Liberal, National and One Nation supporters squabble on right wing blogs in the way that Labor and Green supporters do here?
______________________
Somewhere there is a LNP Briefly bemoaning Hansonites for threatening the LNP plurality.
Reviewing your recent posts, “Not Sure”, I’m unsure that a reasonable person would want to continue discourse with you – certainly not me! It seems that you delight in being overly provocative, with scant substance to support your argument.
mundo says:
Thursday, December 26, 2019 at 8:59 pm
I think the vain hope that Scrooter was going to crash and burn has really got to some here and they’re just floundering around aimlessly trying to get their bearings.
Mundo told you; Scrotto had it all under control. When Albo showed his soft underbelly Scrooter knew he was home and hosed.
___________________
Far be it from me to question the prognosticator of prognosticators but it’s early days, the LNP have a small margin and Albo is smarter you think.
I don’t know of any right wing blogs similar to PB, the closet might be CatallaxyFiles but it goes to show how shallow the Australian political landscape is compared to America.
I had hopes for Albo too nath but I think dark forces in the alp ( including those on pb who claim to hold dossiers of dirt) don’t mean for him to make it to 2022.
I think labor cray-cray is qualitatively different to lnp cray-cray. The former is well intentioned cray cray the later is just cray cray.
Let’s all take this New Year resolution:
In 2020 on Poll Bludger, I will not:
— Revisit old wars on refugee policy and the environment.
–Attack Labor for not doing enough on refugees or the environment.
–Criticize those like the Greens who want more action on reducing carbon emissions and ending offshore detention.
In 2020 I will:
— Concentrate my efforts to get rid of Australia’s Public Enemy No. 1 : the LNP Coalition.
— Understand that constant sniping between Labor and the Greens plays into the Coalition’s divide-and-rule strategy.
And anyone who violates this code will be publicly shamed.
I will ask Kayjay to be the umpire.
Mavis @ #261 Thursday, December 26th, 2019 – 9:00 pm
And he seems more than a little unhinged.
You do from time to time carry on Lars but rarely do you impersonate a watermelon so well.
Lars Von Trier
says:
Thursday, December 26, 2019 at 9:05 pm
I had hopes for Albo too nath but I think dark forces in the alp ( including those on pb who claim to hold dossiers of dirt) don’t mean for him to make it to 2022.
__________________
the dark forces will have to be checked that’s true. Shorten should be encouraged to retire. Kitching should lose preselection. It’s time for the dark forces to renew themselves!
The 26th happened. The problem is celebrating it. I think it should be acknowledged, and then held in perspective, and that can’t happen until the loop is closed, and that can’t happen until there is some formal reconciliation or treaty, enacted on the same date. Who could possibly object.
In the meantime, the 26th should be renamed. It is clearly not Australia Day. That’s fake news. I think something pc and neutral along the lines of
The Day We Fuckn Arrived Day.
ItzaDream
says:
Thursday, December 26, 2019 at 9:19 pm
The 26th happened. The problem is celebrating it.
_________________________
From my perspective some Australians only really started celebrating the 26th when they realised how deeply it offended indigenous Australians.
C@tmomma:
[‘And he seems more than a little unhinged.’]
Yes, and without a hint of ingratiation, I think the moderator is of the same view, telling him/her to desist with the rubbish, to ‘STFU’, from memory.
In the 1970s Australia Day seemed moribund. It was celebrated on the Monday on or following the day itself. Such public celebrations as there were held were low key, dull as ditchwater and mostly ignored. Then as now it marked the end of the Christmas / Summer break.
It underwent a major revival in the leadup to the 1988 bicentenary and the rest in history.
Great quote, recorded in the Guardian, from Allee Williams on Taylor Swift’s cover of her song September (Earth, Wind and Fire)
[September was covered by Taylor Swift in 2018, a version described by Willis “as lethargic as a drunk turtle dozing under a sunflower after ingesting a bottle of Valium…”.]
Finding which political blogs are still active seems reasonable thing to do at the end of the year. To get on the list there needed to be a post in the last two months. Any more, I wonder?
The TERF war hotting up again. Women like J.K. Rowling who is currently being vilified as a hateful transphobic bigot for her bizarre belief that the human species is divided into biological men and biological women. 26/12/2019
http://anotherpoliticallyincorrectblog.blogspot.com
The three amigoes. It is like the band getting back together again, when all the large white men with blonde-ish hair all came to power, sort of in the same time frame, voted for by actual people, and now all claiming a MANDATE. 14/12/2019
https://askbucko.com
Australian banks first in line for climate stress tests. The banking regulators have fallen into the hands of the Greenies. So banks now must not lend to projects Greenies disapprove of. 26/12/2019
http://australian-politics.blogspot.com
Terf or trans It would seem the feminist thing is hotting up. 23/12/2019
http://ozconservative.blogspot.com
Truth about the medivac ‘four-star’ asylum seekers 23/12/2019
https://independentaustralia.net/
The poverty of intellectual correctness – Part One: Neo-Darwinism 24/12/2019
http://clubtroppo.com.au/
Dog bites man, high income earners vote liberal December 26th 2019
https://johnquiggin.com/
ALP socialist Left forum
http://alpsocialistleft.blogspot.com/ 4/11/2019
Self refuting scholarship One of the signs of the increasing intellectual conformity of the academy, particularly the social science and (even more) the humanities, is the rise of scholarship that treats voting the “wrong” way as a pathology, to be explained pathologically.14/12/2019
http://skepticlawyer.com.au/
The dreadful fires are costing lives, houses, stock and trees, By next winter we need a plan. In my view, it should include firebreaks, burning excess scrub, building dams and increasing penalties for arson. 22/12/2019
https://www.henrythornton.com
In a turn of events predicted since he announced his candidacy for President, Donald Trump has been impeached. But this impeachment, and even Trump’s removal from office, will do nothing to quell the reality that the world is actively electing aggressively oppressive candidates, not only despite their violence, but also because of it. 20/12/2019
https://www.eurekastreet.com.au
Medical opinion, torture and Julian Assange 24/12/2019
https://www.onlineopinion.com.au/
Steve777 @ #275 Thursday, December 26th, 2019 – 9:32 pm
Yes, it was then not much more than a banal, and offensive, reenactment fetishising white superiority. I would add the wretched antiGough John Howard as a significant element in its glorification into a Nationalist white pissup.
Wow, some blasts from the past there, frednk! Henry Thornton. Australian Politics and skepticlawyer. 🙂
One Republican Senator has stuck their head above the parapet:
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2019/dec/26/trump-impeachment-lisa-murkowski-disturbed-by-mitch-mcconnells-stance
There obviously will not be enough Republican Senators willing to vote to Impeach Donald Trump but the more the merrier.
The final straw – Morrison in DTS at the Beach in the Daily Mail. Too monstrous a picture to link to.
I have never known anybody under 60 to voluntarily wear them unless they were lifesavers, athletes or utter wankers.
What does DTS stand for?
This is interesting. The Overview Effect – an awakening and realignment brought on by seeing Planet Earth from space – is attempted to be recreated artificially.
https://www.theguardian.com/science/2019/dec/26/scientists-attempt-to-recreate-overview-effect-from-earth
This is not unlike the not universal, but common, pyschoactive effects of LSD, mushrooms, deep meditation, and other forms of achieving higher states of consciousness.
At a guess;
DTS = Dick Togs Speedos
C@t:
Incidentally, Trump rubbished her not that long ago, obviously still seething that she voted against Kavanaugh’s confirmation.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2019/12/25/sen-lisa-murkowski-disturbed-by-mcconnells-vow-total-coordination-with-white-house-over-impeachment/
Happy Birthday (Christmas Day) Justin!
https://www.cbc.ca/archives/trudeau-brothers-christmas-birthdays-1.5390824
Barney:
I had to google it and found it’s just an obscure way to refer to budgie smugglers!
‘fess,
I’m pretty sure Lisa Murkowski doesn’t like Donald Trump! She seems too sensible. 🙂
And in googling I came across this. 😮
https://www.mamboworld.com.au/article/in-defence-of-dick-togs/
Confessions @ #289 Thursday, December 26th, 2019 – 10:22 pm
Seems like it’s mainly a Qld thing ‘fess’ I found this https://www.macquariedictionary.com.au/resources/aus/word/map/search/word/D.T.s/Far%20North%20Qld/
Seems like it’s mainly a Qld thing ‘fess’ I found this https://www.macquariedictionary.com.au/resources/aus/word/map/search/word/D.T.s/Far%20North%20Qld/
_________________________________
D.T.S is also used in Melbourne…. to refer to Queensland, ie. the Dicktog state.
C@t:
She isn’t a guaranteed Republican vote in the Senate, although I don’t think she’ll vote to convict Trump if there’s a Senate trial.
Itza:
However one refers to them, I reckon budgie smugglers should be banned. Abbott has ruined them forever! 😆
January 26 is Sydney’s founding day and that is all that should be celebrated on that day or if we really are going to start celebrating that latest American import then make January 26 our version of thanksgivings day.
Of all the odd American traditions, Thanksgiving is one that I can identify with.
It is not religious.
It is not patriotic.
It is not military.
It is not sports related.
It requires no exchange of gifts.
It celebrates the small successes.
It celebrates friendships and family
It welcomes strangers.
It always starts a 4 day weekend.
And of course it is a great excuse for a meal where everyone pitches in.
Late Riser
But it is too close to Christmas, we need one in July.
I could not give a flying fig about Australia Day because I am sick of rightwing memes about how we have to defend it or resist the change. I am so sick of confected outrage.
I blame Joyce’s parents, the piss, accountancy – all of which accounts for his nuttiness:
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/barnaby-joyce-outlines-a-tactile-climate-policy-after-releasing-twitter-rant-20191226-p53mzf.html
It’s sad that Fairfax pursues an obviously twisted, broken man, more alcoholically flushed than Charles.
Asked to explain his actions by social media users, the barrister initially defended himself by arguing the fox was caught in protective netting around the chicken coop and that he “wasn’t sure what else to do”.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/prominent-british-lawyer-sparks-outrage-after-clubbing-fox-to-death-while-dressed-in-a-kimono-20191227-p53n2n.html
Lizzie and C@t
I am up and running with a new computer.