Newspoll breakdowns: November-December 2019

Aggregated polling breakdowns from Newspoll offer never-before-seen detail on voting intention by income and education, together with state, gender and age.

Something new under the sun today from Newspoll, with The Australian ($) publishing the first set of aggregated breakdowns since the election. This would appear to be limited to the new-look poll that was launched last month, which has dropped its telephone component and is now conducted entirely online. Only two results have been published in that time, but there is evidently more behind this poll than that, as the survey period extends back to November 7 and the sample size of 4562 suggests three polling periods rather than two.

The results as published are of interest in providing never-before-seen breakdowns for education level (no tertiary, TAFE/technical or tertiary) and household income (up to $50,000, up to $100,000, up to $150,000, and beyond). Including the first of these as a weighting variable promises to address difficulties pollsters may have been having in over-representing those with good education and high levels of civic engagement. However, the poll gives with one hand and takes with the other, in that it limits the state breakdowns are limited to New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland. And it falls well short of the promised new age of pollster transparency, providing no detail on how the various sub-categories have been weighted.

The state breakdowns suggest either that Labor has recovered slightly in Queensland since the election, or that polling is still struggling to hit the mark there. The Coalition is credited with a two-party lead of 55-45, compared with 58.4-41.6 at the election. Their primary vote is 40%, down from 43.7%, with Labor up from 26.7% to 29%, One Nation up from 8.9% to 13%, and the Greens up from 10.3% to 12%. The Coalition lead in New South Wales is 51-49, compared with 51.8-48.2 at the election, from primary votes of Coalition 42% (42.5%), Labor 35% (34.6%) and Greens 10% (8.7%). Labor’s lead in Victoria is 53-47, barely different from the election result of 53.1-46.9, from primary votes of Coalition 40% (38.6%), Labor 38% (36.9%) and Greens 12% (11.9%).

Age breakdowns consist of four cohorts rather than the old three, and tell a globally familiar story of Labor dominating among the 18-to-34s with a lead of 57-43, while the 65-plus cohort goes 61-39 the other way. In between are a 50-50 from 35-49s and 51-49 to the Coalition among 50-64s. The primary votes are less radical than the recent findings of the Australian Election Study survey: the primary votes among the young cohort are Coalition 34%, Labor 35% and Greens 22%, compared with 37%, 23% and 28% respectively in the AES.

Reflecting polling in Britain, there is little distinction in the balance of major party support between the three education cohorts (UPDATE: actually not so – I was thinking of social class, education was associated with Labor support), contrary to the traditional expectation that the party of the working class would do best among those with no tertiary education. The Coalition instead leads 52-48 among both that cohort and the university-educated, with Labor leading 51-49 among those with TAFE or other technical qualifications. However, household income breakdowns are more in line with traditional expectation, with Labor leading 53-47 at the bottom end, the Coalition leading 51-49 in the lower-middle, and the Coalition leading 58-42 in both of the upper cohorts.

Leadership ratings turn up a few curiosities, such as Scott Morrison rating better in Victoria (46% on both approval and disapproval) than New South Wales (41% and 51%) and Queensland (43% and 51%). Conversely, Anthony Albanese is stronger in his home state of New South Wales (41% and 40%) than Victoria (37% and 42%) and Queensland (35% and 49%).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

7,114 comments on “Newspoll breakdowns: November-December 2019”

Comments Page 8 of 143
1 … 7 8 9 … 143


  3. Quoll says:
    Friday, December 27, 2019 at 8:15 am
    ….
    Pathetic

    Thanks to the Greens the pantomime continues. The damage done to environmental goals by the Greens is beyond pathetic; it is extremely sad. For the sake of the environment the Greens should disband tomorrow and hand over their ill gotten gains to the environmental organizations they have helped destroy.

  4. BK

    My youngest daughter is actually shopping around for new laptop. Doesn’t want to spend more than $1000.00.
    I’ll mention your purchase to her today.

  5. https://www.smh.com.au/national/this-drying-continent-can-t-afford-adani-s-pipeline-to-12-5-billion-litres-of-precious-water-20191208-p53hvm.html

    And the Adani brothers and their phalanxs of greed driven lawyers are poised and waiting to hear the word, “No.” (they don’t seem to really give a shit about the the coal) then it will be straight to the courts and sue for potential loss of profits, amongst other things. I can’t see either the federal LNP or LNP Lite in Queensland blocking the pipeline anyway, too many palms have been greased over the years.

  7. PhoenixRed

    Rick Wilson and his group who have now formed the Lincoln project to get rid of Trump, looks like being a good move towards this goal

  8. Kronomex

    The problem of compensation was one of the reasons Fed Labor was careful not to say a direct No (and explained why at the time), but such subtleties are lost in all the huffing and puffing.

  9. Thank you BK

    ‘Daniel McNamara, who has worked on a number of campaigns, says that the future for Labor is in the cities, not the blue collar regional mirage. He might be on the money with this advice.

    https://www.smh.com.au/national/labor-stop-chasing-the-blue-collar-regional-mirage-your-future-is-in-the-cities-20191216-p53kde.html‘

    An Australian electoral analysis that manages to avoid talking about the spoiler role of the Greens, and the way in which the Coalition harvests racism, xenophobia, sectarianism and nationalism is not worth the paper it is written on.

    McNamara’s comparative exercise is also interesting. Macron won in part because anyone who was not on the the lunatic right swung solidly behind him and gave him full support. This included the French Centrists and the French Left. Trump won in part because Sanders white-anted Clinton. (This is not new. Bush got up in part because Nader white-anted Gore.) Ditto Morrison got up in part because of Di Natale’s Kill Bill fixation and his spoiler role in the 2019 Fed election. The fundamental lesson there is that if the Far Left keeps playing with electoral fire because they know they are ideologically right, everyone can get scorched except for the Plutos.

    Touting a strategy that Labor should simply write off the 34 large state regional seats (plus several others in the smaller states) and then start competing with everyone else for what remains beggars belief. It is similar to the Greens’ Adani prism that Labor should write off the regions, leave the Inner Urbs to the righteous Greens and then see what it can do with the seats that are left after that.


  10. Kronomex says:
    Friday, December 27, 2019 at 8:48 am

    https://www.smh.com.au/national/this-drying-continent-can-t-afford-adani-s-pipeline-to-12-5-billion-litres-of-precious-water-20191208-p53hvm.html

    And the Adani brothers and their phalanxs of greed driven lawyers are poised and waiting to hear the word, “No.” (they don’t seem to really give a shit about the the coal) then it will be straight to the courts and sue for potential loss of profits, amongst other things. I can’t see either the federal LNP or LNP Lite in Queensland blocking the pipeline anyway, too many palms have been greased over the years.

    Yep, it is a game of poker, never going to get built, demand ( you know old chestnut, control demand) and thus price has fallen too much. The Greens, being eager to belt Labor over the head were right in there giving Adani false hope.

  11. Victoria says: Friday, December 27, 2019 at 8:50 am

    PhoenixRed

    Rick Wilson and his group who have now formed the Lincoln project to get rid of Trump, looks like being a good move towards this goal

    **************************************************************

    ‏ @journopixs

    Replying to @TheRickWilson

    #LincolnProject We can do it.

  12. frednk @ #336 Friday, December 27th, 2019 – 8:01 am


    Tony Windsor exclaims that this drying continent can’t afford Adani’s pipeline to 12.5 billion litres of precious water.
    <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/national/this-drying-continent-can-t-afford-adani-s-pipeline-to-12-5-billion-litres-of-precious-water-20191208-p53hvm.html&quot;

    Finally someone mentions why Adani should not go ahead. Has nothing to do with exporting mining jobs to Indonesia. Pity the Greens have done such a good job of hiding the real reason.

    There is no possible justification for Adani going ahead. It was never about jobs – look up just how few permanent jobs will be created. It has only ever been about money.

    I wouldn’t go quite so far as to call the whole process corrupt … but it says a lot about Labor that they are still unwilling to walk away from it, despite the fact that the damage the mine will do massively outweighs any benefits it will bring.

  13. Vic:

    Do you think the Lincoln Project will have any sway with voters? It might provide an avenue for donors who would ordinarily donate to the Republicans (and who didn’t in 2016), bit Trump has a very rock solid grip on the party.

  14. PhoenixRed

    great illustration.

    I am confident they will make a notable difference.

    I would add “traitor” to
    Rick Wilson’s earlier tweet.

  15. Like the Russians, I suspect Trump has dirt on many people – he is and always was, a mobster.

    He has many in the republican party by the short & curlies … so the farce will likely continue until the next election

  17. My understanding re the Overland is that the Victorian government has increased their subsidy share to keep the service going until at least March.

    But I could be wrong.

    In the last few weeks the train has had healthy bookings.

    Nevertheless the actions of the SA Government are nothing short of disgraceful

  18. Fess

    Yes.

    I believe that Rick Wilson and others are very influential within the GOP. Remember Wilson worked for Guiliani in times gone by.
    And Wilson as a never trumper has been very vocal from the get go.

  19. phoenixRED @ #366 Friday, December 27th, 2019 – 9:00 am

    Trump supporters are promoting a bizarre website that claims the president’s IQ is 156 ‘at the minimum’

    https://www.rawstory.com/2019/12/trump-supporters-are-promoting-a-bizarre-website-that-claims-the-presidents-iq-is-156-at-the-minimum/

    Tea Pain‏ @TeaPainUSA

    MAGA claims Trump has an IQ of at least 156.

    156 is more like the number of women Trump has sexually assaulted.

    Perhaps they think IQ stands for “Indecency Quota”?

  20. Torchbearer @ #333 Friday, December 27th, 2019 – 7:57 am

    On the Overland train about to depart Adelaide for Melbourne. It will be discontinued after 132 years on Dec 31 due to liberal cuts.

    We travelled back from Adelaide to Melbourne a couple of years ago. Daylight trip too long, diversion via Geelong pointless. We like rail travel but this one was ruined by making it a daylight trip rather than the original overnight, which was good. Not sure if that change came with the privatization.

  23. Player One says: Friday, December 27, 2019 at 9:04 am

    phoenixRED @ #366 Friday, December 27th, 2019 – 9:00 am

    Perhaps they think IQ stands for “Indecency Quota”?

    **************************************************

    Well said, Player One 🙂

  24. Vic:

    I guess we’ll see. Last I read they were targeting Susan Collins who is supposedly a moderate Republican albeit having drawn public support from Trump. Then again, knocking off sitting Republican Senators and hopefully ending Moscow Mitch’s Senate majority would be a laudable goal in and of itself.

  26. C@t

    Only if the cowpat is shaped like ScoMo’s head.

    I found this Twitter stream which I thought worth posting. Further down it also compares Hillsong with Scientology and other ‘religious’ scams. Also Landmark Forum (I’d never heard of this one).

    @flamingo_a_gogo
    1:54 PM · Dec 26, 2019·
    Once again, I reiterate my #hillsong experience. Went with a friend just to see what the fuss was about. There were ads for their own products during the ‘service’. They knew I was new and several honed (sic) in and took me to this weird cafe they had out the back.

    Houston was up on stage. He said something about parking his Harley out the back (?!) and then just kept saying ‘guys, you’ve got to give’ about money. Everyone on stage in the band was young and attractive. People started ‘praying’ on me (preying more like)

    …asking for my healing (?) and to rid me of my sins. Meanwhile, the place was set up like a television studio with the lighting and cameras everywhere. The followers are sucked in and the owners are bad, greedy people who prey on the vulnerable. In my experience.

    …Anyway another friend of mine went too and she basically recalled the same experience. She just said there was a parade of young men who kept trying to take her to KFC after the service.

    @mattyvau
    Replying to @flamingo_a_gogo
    Sounds so much like the time I went with a friend to Landmark Forum. A more secular version of the same dangerous cult. I went in very sceptical but still came out traumatised

    @MrNixonsWife
    Very apt comparison.
    Landmark Forum is despicable.
    Responsible for at least three marriage breakdowns in my circle alone. Uses cult psychology to inveigle people, take their money, use them as free labour, all under the guise of “growth and insight”. Utter charlatans.

  27. Fess

    It would indeed.

    I continue to be confident that Trump and his cronies will fail.
    What it means for the rest of the globe remains to be seen. The UK will be interesting to watch as to the type of Brexit they actually adopt.
    It may eventually dawn on the Brits that best to continue business as usual in the future, after attempting some type of new world order.

  28. BK

    So far she has looked at JB hi fi and Good Guys.
    We have a Harvey norman store a few suburbs away. I will mention it to her. Thanks.

  34. One thing that is apparent is that there is a lack of photos of Scott Morrison talking/meeting/consoling victims and front line volunteers of the bushfires during this “PR Campaign” he is conducting.

    Why would that be?

  35. KayJaysays:
    Friday, December 27, 2019 at 6:45 am
    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/criminal-liability-call-for-aged-care/news-story/314d0cf2197a16cb185ca81f33ed20cf

    Managers and management of aged-care providers should be made criminally liable for serious incidents of physical abuse of resident­s at their facilities, the royal commission has heard.

    In a new submission to the aged-care commission, advocacy group National Seniors warned that regulation in the industry had been “captured by providers and their owners” and said criminal sanctions were required to effec­t real change in behaviour of staff in their handling of older Australians in their care.

    Interesting article. Its a very complex area with no easy answers.

    *********

    As background, my paternal grandparents were in a high care nursing home for the last 20 or so year of their life, until my mid 20s. We visited them weekly throughout that time.

    I disagree there are no easy answers. The hard part about this is facing the truth about our collective attitude to aged care: we want our old people out if sight and out of mind, and we want it *cheap*. A very bad combination.

    Until that changes, the problems identified by the RC and the same problems identified by the many inquires before it will continue.

  38. I would surmise that these “reports” by the so-called “Drought Envoy” do not exist.

    Actually, I think the problem is that they DO exist, and would make for extremely embarrassing read, for a number of reasons:

    • Written in garbled Barnarby-speak,
    • Recommendations made, but ignored,
    • Pleas from desperate farmers to admit Global Warming is real,
    • Warnings of a bad bushfire season coming.

  39. How Australia’s coal madness led to Adani

    The real reasons keeping the Carmichael mine alive

    https://www.themonthly.com.au/issue/2019/april/1554037200/james-bradley/how-australia-s-coal-madness-led-adani

    But there is another form of denial as well, one more insidious than the full-blown denialism of the far right. This is the kind we see when politicians accept the science of climate change but refuse to grapple with its implications. It is the Gillard government introducing a carbon tax while simultaneously presiding over the largest ever expansion in Australia’s coal export industry. It is governments in South Australia investing in renewable energy while supporting oil exploration in the Great Australian Bight. It is Malcolm Turnbull and Josh Frydenberg giving half a billion dollars of public money to a little-known reef charity while championing an energy policy that would do nothing to reduce emissions. It is senior Labor figures refusing to rule out new coalmines when they know we have a decade at most to bring emissions down. It is, in short, the fantasy there is room for delay, or that we can have action on climate change while still indulging the advocates of fossil fuels.

    The contradiction of this position is no longer sustainable. To have any hope of holding warming to 1.5 degrees we must reduce net emissions to zero by 2050.
    :::
    …In the face of this reality, opening new coalmines is like locking our children in a burning house and throwing away the key.
    :::
    Only a decade ago the notion the world needed to transition away from coal was a fringe idea, seldom heard outside environmental circles; now it is widely accepted as an inevitability. But these developments also underscore one of the key conundrums facing those who seek action on climate change. Those in power are not going to fix the problem: even when they are not working actively to frustrate action, the institutional inertia and influence of the fossil fuel industry make change incredibly difficult. Left to its own devices conventional politics would already have delivered not just Carmichael but also mass exploitation of the Galilee; the only reason that has not happened is because activists, community groups and others have worked tirelessly to prevent it.

    Simultaneously, though, the systemic change needed to transition from coal will only be delivered through the mechanisms of representative politics. Governments will only do better when they are compelled to. There is no one path to this goal, although as the shift to renewables accelerates, the economic logic will become more and more difficult to resist. Nor will it be easy, and time is desperately short. But as the battle over Carmichael shows, it can be done.

  42. This federal government really is getting into a very bad habit of withholding information in the public interest that would be embarrassing to it. They can’t get away with it forever.

    mundo would beg to differ, I’m sure. 😐

  44. And what would the job of “Drought Envoy” involve?

    Barnaby would need to talk to people in affected areas, including his own electorate, regarding the impacts that the drought is having. Farmers, graziers and people who work for them. People in regional towns including tradies, business people (shops, tourism, services for the local area, agricultuaral, etc) and workers. Talk to local councils and other service providers including charities, CWA, etc. As a former Deputy PM working in a politically friendly enviornment talking to people who want more suport, doors will be opened to him. He / his staff would tTake copious notes. Regularly, weekly would be about right, send in a report. He’ll have support staff to assist in all of this.

    How hard could it be? It would be easy enough to write a job description. But I suspect that he simply treated the role as the sinecure that it was.

  45. Steve777

    Someone discovered several of the envoy’s reports.

    Replying to
    @AmyRemeikis

    .
    Nice pub – river’s dry.

    Pub grub good – river cactus.

    Ok pub – nice barmaids. Oh & river’s dry.

    This town has no drinking water, thankfully pub has plenty of beer.

    27 beers, off for a wander… Where am I? Shit, I coulda drowned – thankfully river was dry.

    Angus!
    4:10 PM · Sep 23, 2019·Twitter Web App
    2
    Retweets
    4
    Likes
    New to Twitter?

  46. From the link by Pegasus

    Only a decade ago the notion the world needed to transition away from coal was a fringe idea, seldom heard outside environmental circles; now it is widely accepted as an inevitability.

    This is something I have been thinking for a while now. Circumstances have moved swiftly so that certainties a decade ago have been overcome by events. Large organisations, especially when they democratically rely on a majority of members coming to a consensus, are understandably very slow to turn the boat around.

    We are now in uncharted waters. In the present circs, the constant “oh, but look at past history” is becoming more and more irrelevant and it is a shame that political parties are using this against each other.

    It requires a very charismatic leader to overcome this. Don’t laugh, but Abbott said he’d act first and ask for forgiveness later. Such a pity his actions were all in the wrong direction.

    If an organisation needs to rebuild from the ground up, it’s no good insisting that the past is the way to go.

    https://www.theage.com.au/national/labor-stop-chasing-the-blue-collar-regional-mirage-your-future-is-in-the-cities-20191216-p53kde.html

  47. Pegasus @ #389 Friday, December 27th, 2019 – 9:39 am

    How Australia’s coal madness led to Adani

    The real reasons keeping the Carmichael mine alive

    https://www.themonthly.com.au/issue/2019/april/1554037200/james-bradley/how-australia-s-coal-madness-led-adani

    And, from the same article …

    Yet the claims made about Carmichael’s economic benefits are highly questionable. When asked in court in 2015, Adani’s financial controller, Rajesh Gupta, not only conceded that government revenue from the project was unlikely to exceed $7.8 billion, he repeatedly declined to rule out taking advantage of tax minimisation schemes to shift potential profits offshore to tax havens and lower-tax jurisdictions such as Singapore. Other witnesses, such as energy analyst Tim Buckley, went further, arguing that Adani was “going to lose money at … the operating level [so] it actually won’t pay any tax”. Similarly when former Reserve Bank economist and Adani consultant Jerome Fahrer was pressed on the question of jobs, he admitted the figure of 10,000 was “extreme and unrealistic”. Instead, Fahrer argued that, at the peak of construction, the project would employ approximately 2400 people, but because many of these jobs would come at the expense of those elsewhere, the number of jobs actually created would be considerably lower. Instead, Fahrer said that over the life of the project an average of 1464 full-time equivalent direct and indirect jobs would be created.

    Adani simply does not stack up in any respect. Anyone who still supports it is either deluded or dishonest.

  50. Daniel McNamara – worked for the ALP national secretariat during the past two federal election campaigns

    https://www.smh.com.au/national/labor-stop-chasing-the-blue-collar-regional-mirage-your-future-is-in-the-cities-20191216-p53kde.html

    Labor has a choice. It can spend the coming years fruitlessly chasing the mirage of the lost regional working class. Or it can position itself for the future through a city-led strategy, in the mould of its successful centre-left peers internationally. If it doesn’t move fast, it could soon find its position in the electoral landscape redundant.

Comments Page 8 of 143
1 … 7 8 9 … 143

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *