Newspoll breakdowns: November-December 2019

Aggregated polling breakdowns from Newspoll offer never-before-seen detail on voting intention by income and education, together with state, gender and age.

Something new under the sun today from Newspoll, with The Australian ($) publishing the first set of aggregated breakdowns since the election. This would appear to be limited to the new-look poll that was launched last month, which has dropped its telephone component and is now conducted entirely online. Only two results have been published in that time, but there is evidently more behind this poll than that, as the survey period extends back to November 7 and the sample size of 4562 suggests three polling periods rather than two.

The results as published are of interest in providing never-before-seen breakdowns for education level (no tertiary, TAFE/technical or tertiary) and household income (up to $50,000, up to $100,000, up to $150,000, and beyond). Including the first of these as a weighting variable promises to address difficulties pollsters may have been having in over-representing those with good education and high levels of civic engagement. However, the poll gives with one hand and takes with the other, in that it limits the state breakdowns are limited to New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland. And it falls well short of the promised new age of pollster transparency, providing no detail on how the various sub-categories have been weighted.

The state breakdowns suggest either that Labor has recovered slightly in Queensland since the election, or that polling is still struggling to hit the mark there. The Coalition is credited with a two-party lead of 55-45, compared with 58.4-41.6 at the election. Their primary vote is 40%, down from 43.7%, with Labor up from 26.7% to 29%, One Nation up from 8.9% to 13%, and the Greens up from 10.3% to 12%. The Coalition lead in New South Wales is 51-49, compared with 51.8-48.2 at the election, from primary votes of Coalition 42% (42.5%), Labor 35% (34.6%) and Greens 10% (8.7%). Labor’s lead in Victoria is 53-47, barely different from the election result of 53.1-46.9, from primary votes of Coalition 40% (38.6%), Labor 38% (36.9%) and Greens 12% (11.9%).

Age breakdowns consist of four cohorts rather than the old three, and tell a globally familiar story of Labor dominating among the 18-to-34s with a lead of 57-43, while the 65-plus cohort goes 61-39 the other way. In between are a 50-50 from 35-49s and 51-49 to the Coalition among 50-64s. The primary votes are less radical than the recent findings of the Australian Election Study survey: the primary votes among the young cohort are Coalition 34%, Labor 35% and Greens 22%, compared with 37%, 23% and 28% respectively in the AES.

Reflecting polling in Britain, there is little distinction in the balance of major party support between the three education cohorts (UPDATE: actually not so – I was thinking of social class, education was associated with Labor support), contrary to the traditional expectation that the party of the working class would do best among those with no tertiary education. The Coalition instead leads 52-48 among both that cohort and the university-educated, with Labor leading 51-49 among those with TAFE or other technical qualifications. However, household income breakdowns are more in line with traditional expectation, with Labor leading 53-47 at the bottom end, the Coalition leading 51-49 in the lower-middle, and the Coalition leading 58-42 in both of the upper cohorts.

Leadership ratings turn up a few curiosities, such as Scott Morrison rating better in Victoria (46% on both approval and disapproval) than New South Wales (41% and 51%) and Queensland (43% and 51%). Conversely, Anthony Albanese is stronger in his home state of New South Wales (41% and 40%) than Victoria (37% and 42%) and Queensland (35% and 49%).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

7,114 comments on “Newspoll breakdowns: November-December 2019”

Comments Page 9 of 143
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  1. “Or, if they do, they make no sense at all.”

    “Geez it’s bloody hot out here!”
    “It’s dry as a dead dingo’s donger”
    “The pub ran out of beer”

  2. So that is an article by a guy who worked on the last two, losing, election campaigns. Wow, he’ll really have the answers then. 🙄

  3. A massive heat sink is developing in the ocean to the east of New Zealand, with temperatures as much as 6 degrees Celsius higher than usual.

    The large blob, which is about 2000km wide, was identified by thermal imaging from the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

    A lot of sun in the area combined with very little wind have combined to make it one of the hottest ocean spots on the planet right now.

    https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/118479348/huge-sea-temperature-anomaly-has-water-six-degrees-above-normal

  7. C@tmomma @ #398 Friday, December 27th, 2019 – 10:00 am

    Labor will continue to seek to represent all Australians, in every electorate in Australia.

    So you lost the last election for a handful of full-time jobs? And seem determined to lose the next one as well for the same reason?

    Does nobody in the Labor party get just how ridiculous that is? Is it any wonder that many people suspect there must be an ulterior motive?

  8. It’s not just Australian farmers doing it tough. But unlike our farmers hit by drought, something they can’t control, many American farmers are victims of Trump’s tantrum-induced trade wars. And amazingly some of them STILL don’t blame him for their woes. This family struggle with only $175 per month to buy groceries for a family of 7 but…

    In this part of New York — older, whiter, poorer than other parts of the country — voters chose Donald Trump in decisive percentages during the 2016 presidential race, the Lees among them. Like many farmers, they think their taxes are too high, their creeks and streams are over-regulated and that Trump still has their best interests at heart.

    “We’ve had unfair trade for years and years. Somebody had to fix it, and he’s trying to fix it,” Anne said.

    “I know a lot of people don’t like it but, you know, this was going to have to happen in order to make U.S. products become more competitive,” said Andy. “It’s going to hurt for a while.”

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/in-trump-country-a-season-of-need-on-family-farms/2019/12/26/fcb71262-2377-11ea-86f3-3b5019d451db_story.html

  12. Barnaby makes it clear once again that nothing meaningful will happen on climate change as long as the current government and its grifter MPs remain in place.

    Once more with feeling: Labor is the only party willing and capable of reducing the country’s GHGEs. Nothing is going to happen on that front while the coalition is in office.

  13. Bushfire Bill @9:36.

    That is an interesting and plausible alternative hypothesis, especially the last point “Warnings of a bad bushfire season coming”.

  15. Confessions @ #412 Friday, December 27th, 2019 – 10:10 am

    Barnaby makes it clear once again that nothing meaningful will happen on climate change as long as the current government and its grifter MPs remain in place.

    Once more with feeling: Labor is the only party willing and capable of reducing the country’s GHGEs. Nothing is going to happen on that front while the coalition is in office.

    Exactly. However, yet again, The Greens’ on this blog will spend all day attempting to tear Labor down.

    Today they will use the useless words of a failed Labor campaign worker, as if he was some sort of prophet.

  21. Richard Chirgwin
    4h
    Last week, Sussan Ley gave us “unprecedented means different things to different people”.

    Today on the ABC’s AM program, “Green tape means different things to different people”.

    She’s going to preside over the dismantling of environmental protection.

  24. Mundo, NSW emergency services minister off to France now for hols as heat wave coming and fires still raging in parts, already getting questions as well.
    LNP are terminal at not giving a shit, pity some Laborites are so gutless and cowering in face of them.

  25. Cat

    Labor needs to focus on voters they can win. Not abandon voters. There is a difference.

    The reality is the coal mining areas are going to vote LNP.
    Labor can win the voters in urban areas to get its majority. It’s already strong in these areas anyway.

    Remember South East Queensland is credited for Labor’s last state election win for Palasczcuk

  30. Peg,

    There is an interesting article that appeared in “Current Issues in Criminal Justice” in 2005 related to a civil case relating to false imprisonment of anti-logging protesters in the Otways in 1999.

    The issues raised are still pertinent, and have some commonality with the resistance to the phasing out of thermal coal from within Labor and Unions representing workers in extractive industries.

    http://www.austlii.edu.au/au/journals/CICrimJust/2005/7.html

    Industrial unionism is predicated on the idea that production can and should be maintained, and where possible expanded to ensure continued employment for workers. Environmental risk may be acknowledged, but rarely as a constraint on expanded production (Goodman 2004). The union project, although challenging the level of capitalist profits, does not generally challenge the capitalist system itself which relies on continual expansion. As Starr points out:

    Seeking improved wages and working conditions refutes the moral and social legitimacy of infinite corporate profits but does not reach beyond the corporate form – or the corporate job, the ‘modernization’ paradigm of growth as the basis for social welfare, or excessive consumption as the foundation of the economy (2000:93).

    Even where it can be demonstrated that the jobs/environment dichotomy is false and that alternative and more sustainable industries or projects are likely to lead to more jobs, employers and governments are likely to stick to the established industry. Brown argues, for example, that although the campaign to dam the Franklin was run on a slogan of ‘Jobs, job, jobs’, the economics indicated – both prospectively and retrospectively – that more jobs would be created by not damming the Franklin (Brown 2004:31-3). Employers profiting from unsustainable or environmentally damaging production are unlikely to support alternative arrangements because they create more jobs. A corporation’s primary objective is profit, not ensuring the maximum number of jobs for workers across a number of industries or sites. The nature of politics is such that corporations engaging in unsustainable or environmentally damaging production have the ability to distort government policy in their own interests.

    :::

    As argued above, the productivist assumption underlying union activity will not readily predispose unionists to many of the arguments of environmentalists and may make them suspicious of all green arguments, even where they are job enhancing. In relation to the forest debate, the antipathy towards environmentalists by loggers felt in the immediate context of the forests may result in these groups being targeted as ‘the problem’ in terms of job security and livelihood even where other issues, for example advances in technology or structural problems in the industry, are likely to have a far greater impact on employment and income. In a broader sense:

    the problems generated in and through capitalist restructuring are also reflected in the scapegoating of green activists, immigrants, and indigenous people, who the media frequently portray as impeding the immediate job prospects of workers in industries associated with resource exploitation (White 2002).

  31. C@tmommasays:
    Friday, December 27, 2019 at 10:05 am
    No one who worked on the last election campaign should ever be allowed near a Labor campaign again for as long as they live!

    ***********

    Agreed, inexcusable incompetence.

  34. This is an absolutely fantastic, top drawer article about recycling:

    What do you do with rubbish if you’re not sure it can be recycled? Cross your fingers and throw it in the recycling bin anyway?

    The national recycling crisis prompted by China’s refusal to accept our waste has revealed an industry beset with problems, at every level of government and right along the supply chain.

    But the crisis revealed another fault in the recycling process: us.

    Experts say many of us are “wish cycling” – tossing everything in the yellow bin in the hope it can be recycled. Whether it’s apathy or misdirected idealism, the phenomenon has already consigned many tonnes of recycling to landfill.

    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/not-sure-what-can-and-can-t-be-recycled-here-s-how-it-works-20191204-p53grj.html


  35. Daniel McNamara – worked for the ALP national secretariat during the past two federal election campaigns

    Did labor win the last two federal campaigns?

  36. Daniel McNamara, General Member
    Daniel McNamara is a PhD candidate in the Research School of Computer Science at the Australian National University. His current research focus is on machine learning and fairness. Daniel visited Carnegie Mellon University in Pittsburgh as a Fulbright Postgraduate Scholar in 2016-17. His work experience includes internships at Microsoft and Google, and working on campaign data analytics for the Australian Labor Party.

    And failing miserably.

  37. guytaur

    I’m just pointing out its a silly and pointless comment.

    At the very least Labor needs more of the outer metro seats and that means having a strategy to deal with Murdoch. And I might add here that although I actually agree with the general thrust of most Greens policies, I’m not so naive as to think everyone is like me. Whereas the Greens greatest (and constant) mistake is to think everyone is like them. (This is not unique to Greens btw)

    I’ll ask you as I ask Quoll. What is the point of your constant negativity towards Labor here? What do you seek to achieve? Who do you wish to enlighten? Not me. I already get that some of Labor’s policies are shall we say non-ideal. But what do you hope to achieve? Like Quoll I’ll also ask, what are you doing to ensure a Labor government? Do the Greens have a strategy to reach out to the “low information voters”?

  39. FredNK

    McNamara makes the same point you do.

    Coal workers are not going to vote their jobs out of existence.
    They know the science denying party of the coal loving LNP is their party.

    So much so the CFMEU has found itself campaigning for the LNP twice.

    It’s a long term trend.
    Fence sitting time is over. It’s time Labor recognised this reality.

  40. Disturbing new report zeroes in on mysteries still surrounding Russia’s 2016 election hacking — and why we’re still at risk

    A new report from Politico on Thursday highlighted the persistent and troubling concerns about the security of U.S. elections, diving deep into some of the still unresolved mysteries about Russia’s efforts to hack the 2016 election.

    Much of the discussion of Russian election interference has focused on two separate prongs of the 2016 interference: the social media troll farms pushing propaganda and disinformation, and the hacking and dumping of emails from the Democratic National Committee and John Podesta, Hillary Clinton’s campaign chair. But journalist Kim Zetter focused in Politico on the third, less-discussed and yet even more disturbing tactic — the hacking of U.S. election infrastructure.

    How Close Did Russia Really Come to Hacking the 2016 Election?

    https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2019/12/26/did-russia-really-hack-2016-election-088171

  41. Mexican

    Your labelling is part of your problem.

    As is dismissing Labor voices telling you uncomfortable truths.

    McNamara is a Labor person.

    As for Murdoch. In outer Metro areas he has some competition.
    Not the concentration he has in FNQ

    Eg. The Brisbane Times exists.

  43. Labor frontbencher Joel Fitz­gibbon says the party is losing the support of the blue-collar workers it was “born to represent”, as the ALP’s standing among men languishes at its lowest level since the final months of Julia Gillard’s prime ministership.

    The Hunter MP said it was essential Labor reframed its policies and messaging to recapture its traditional industrial base after a Newspoll analysis showed just 32 per cent of men supported Labor compared with 45 per cent who backed the Coalition. Support for Labor among men has sunk by eight percentage points since the beginning of the year.

    The opposition’s resources spokesman, critical of former leader Bill Shorten’s ambivalence on the coalmining industry, said the poll vindicated Anthony Albanese’s “policy reset” in reaching mining communities and voicing Labor’s support for coal exports.

    “Labor is losing the demographic it was born to represent: aspirational blue-collar workers,” Mr Fitzgibbon said. “Policy development and messaging must now focus on winning it back.”

    Labor senator Kim Carr said the party needed to junk identity politics if it wanted to win back blue-collar workers.

    “There remains a problem for Labor with blue-collar families,” Senator Carr said. “The assumption that tertiary-educated people are going to vote Labor will compensate for the loss of support in other demographics needs to be viewed with considerable caution.’’

    The Newspoll analysis, published in The Australian on Thursday, used an aggregate of three surveys since November. It showed the support of the major parties was largely unchanged since the election, with a two-party-preferred split of 51 per cent to 49 per cent in favour of the Coalition, while the government has an overall lead in primary support of 41 per cent to 34 per cent.

    The results showed a majority of voters in every household income bracket above $50,000 a year now support the Coalition.

  44. Bushfire Bill @ #8557 Friday, December 27th, 2019 – 9:36 am

    I would surmise that these “reports” by the so-called “Drought Envoy” do not exist.

    Actually, I think the problem is that they DO exist, and would make for extremely embarrassing read, for a number of reasons:

    • Written in garbled Barnarby-speak,
    • Recommendations made, but ignored,
    • Pleas from desperate farmers to admit Global Warming is real,
    • Warnings of a bad bushfire season coming.

    I suspect that that is why The Crazy Beetrooter is being wheeled out as a distraction before the next round of NSW fires. Scummo uses him over and over as the joker, the only position The Crazy Beetrooter has left to him now he’s screwed the pooch so many times, but has to deal with the blowback now that his cover has blown. TCB isn’t as crazy or stupid as he seems, just completely compromised, like Scummo, McCormack, Freidenberg, Dutton, McKenzie… Their shit show melts in the face of real community effort – like the Fireys. They are fucking terrified. Good.

  45. C@tmomma @ #434 Friday, December 27th, 2019 – 10:39 am

    This is an absolutely fantastic, top drawer article about recycling:

    What do you do with rubbish if you’re not sure it can be recycled? Cross your fingers and throw it in the recycling bin anyway?

    The national recycling crisis prompted by China’s refusal to accept our waste has revealed an industry beset with problems, at every level of government and right along the supply chain.

    But the crisis revealed another fault in the recycling process: us.

    Experts say many of us are “wish cycling” – tossing everything in the yellow bin in the hope it can be recycled. Whether it’s apathy or misdirected idealism, the phenomenon has already consigned many tonnes of recycling to landfill.

    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/not-sure-what-can-and-can-t-be-recycled-here-s-how-it-works-20191204-p53grj.html

    Why do we allow non-recyclable plastic packaging at all? It is not actually necessary – it is used to reduce cost. Interestingly, Supermarkets in the UK have a plan to eliminate single-use (i.e. non-recyclable) plastic packaging by 2025. This is something that should be a government initiative. With a levy imposed on single-use plastic packaging to encourage suppliers to move to recyclable plastics.

    It’s not rocket science.

  47. P1
    Adani is a pantomime, a pantomime that will continue until Adani folds. You, the Greens, Adani and the Liberals want to keep it going, Labor needs to be in a position where the damage done is limited.

    They are not going to close it down and give Adani a large slab of cash for something that will happen anyway and as a bonus give the Liberals first prize. Just not going to happen.

    It is unfortunate the Liberals get a second prize, the Greens still have something to beat Labor with, but second prize is not as bad for Labor as giving the Liberals first prize.

    Further it is best in the long run if Adani closes because of the market, it kills the Liberal’s first prize for good.

  48. How are the Greens going with 82%/2030?

    Any progress?

    In the interim, how many Greens supporters have taken Di Natale’s Greens New Deal Pledge to totally decarbonize themselves?

  49. OK, Mundo is calling it.
    Hawaiigate has officially blown over.

    Scrot still standing.

    We had a wine-and-nibblies gathering here last night. Some coming, some going, over 20 adults attended, plus dogs and kids.

    If you think Morrison is forgiven, think again Mundo.

    Up here he is hated. And up here there is no doubt that the bushfire catastrophe is ultimately attributable to Global Warming.

    Our neck of the woods has so far been spared a fire disaster. In the most literal sense, we are next. As they say, there are no atheists in the foxholes.

    And no Morrison apologists. He has suffered a permanent injury, a wound that will leave him crippled.

    You don’t have to be a genius to see why. It’s in his nature.

    It’s in his nature to delude himself into believing he is the sole source of wisdom in any group, solving any problem. He is vain and glib: a terrible combination that sees him become increasingly convinced that he is both loved, and right. And which deceives him into thinking he can utter any nonsensical blather at all, tell any lie, keep any secret, and get away with it.

    If the public sees him this way, imagine what his colleagues must be thinking.

    Only they have to pretend to like and respect him.

    No-one last night carried that burden.

  50. BW

    Yes Daniel McNamara is so Green. That’s why he was running the Greens election campaign…………………………. Oh Wait.

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