Newspoll breakdowns: November-December 2019

Aggregated polling breakdowns from Newspoll offer never-before-seen detail on voting intention by income and education, together with state, gender and age.

Something new under the sun today from Newspoll, with The Australian ($) publishing the first set of aggregated breakdowns since the election. This would appear to be limited to the new-look poll that was launched last month, which has dropped its telephone component and is now conducted entirely online. Only two results have been published in that time, but there is evidently more behind this poll than that, as the survey period extends back to November 7 and the sample size of 4562 suggests three polling periods rather than two.

The results as published are of interest in providing never-before-seen breakdowns for education level (no tertiary, TAFE/technical or tertiary) and household income (up to $50,000, up to $100,000, up to $150,000, and beyond). Including the first of these as a weighting variable promises to address difficulties pollsters may have been having in over-representing those with good education and high levels of civic engagement. However, the poll gives with one hand and takes with the other, in that it limits the state breakdowns are limited to New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland. And it falls well short of the promised new age of pollster transparency, providing no detail on how the various sub-categories have been weighted.

The state breakdowns suggest either that Labor has recovered slightly in Queensland since the election, or that polling is still struggling to hit the mark there. The Coalition is credited with a two-party lead of 55-45, compared with 58.4-41.6 at the election. Their primary vote is 40%, down from 43.7%, with Labor up from 26.7% to 29%, One Nation up from 8.9% to 13%, and the Greens up from 10.3% to 12%. The Coalition lead in New South Wales is 51-49, compared with 51.8-48.2 at the election, from primary votes of Coalition 42% (42.5%), Labor 35% (34.6%) and Greens 10% (8.7%). Labor’s lead in Victoria is 53-47, barely different from the election result of 53.1-46.9, from primary votes of Coalition 40% (38.6%), Labor 38% (36.9%) and Greens 12% (11.9%).

Age breakdowns consist of four cohorts rather than the old three, and tell a globally familiar story of Labor dominating among the 18-to-34s with a lead of 57-43, while the 65-plus cohort goes 61-39 the other way. In between are a 50-50 from 35-49s and 51-49 to the Coalition among 50-64s. The primary votes are less radical than the recent findings of the Australian Election Study survey: the primary votes among the young cohort are Coalition 34%, Labor 35% and Greens 22%, compared with 37%, 23% and 28% respectively in the AES.

Reflecting polling in Britain, there is little distinction in the balance of major party support between the three education cohorts (UPDATE: actually not so – I was thinking of social class, education was associated with Labor support), contrary to the traditional expectation that the party of the working class would do best among those with no tertiary education. The Coalition instead leads 52-48 among both that cohort and the university-educated, with Labor leading 51-49 among those with TAFE or other technical qualifications. However, household income breakdowns are more in line with traditional expectation, with Labor leading 53-47 at the bottom end, the Coalition leading 51-49 in the lower-middle, and the Coalition leading 58-42 in both of the upper cohorts.

Leadership ratings turn up a few curiosities, such as Scott Morrison rating better in Victoria (46% on both approval and disapproval) than New South Wales (41% and 51%) and Queensland (43% and 51%). Conversely, Anthony Albanese is stronger in his home state of New South Wales (41% and 40%) than Victoria (37% and 42%) and Queensland (35% and 49%).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

7,114 comments on “Newspoll breakdowns: November-December 2019”

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  1. C@t, Lizzie and GG,

    lizzie @ #6838 Saturday, January 4th, 2020 – 6:47 pm

    GG

    As you and I have been posting most of the same Tweets today, I can now retire to bed, secure in the knowledge that you will carry the load into the evening.

    Thanks to you both for your posts!

    And after GG retires, I’ll take over as it’s not going to go down in temperature much here until about 2am.

    Good luck C@t. The change will move through here about 11pm, so 2 am sounds about right for you, unfortunately.

    I have not been able to do much today but the minimum required – too bloody hot!!!

  4. Late Riser
    Re ‘Dupers Delight’. It is well known in Russia. It caused all sorts of problems when Maccas arrived in Russia. A smile after a sale/deal for the locals said “I just screwed you” . Not to mention smiling at strangers suggested the ‘smiler’ is a simpleton 🙂

  8. Greensborough Growler @ #6856 Saturday, January 4th, 2020 – 4:05 pm

    Greensborough Growler @ #6855 Saturday, January 4th, 2020 – 7:03 pm

    Victoria @ #6853 Saturday, January 4th, 2020 – 7:01 pm

    Sharri Markson obviously didnt get a right of reply from the NSW state govt.

    I saw a media report earlier quoting Gladys denying Markson’s claims.

    Here it is.

    https://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/national/berejiklian-says-report-she-refused-federal-help-inaccurate/video/0c5b2edf1c75078212410a5bab14ca86

    “Innacurate” is pronounced “utter bullshit”.

  10. Sharri Markson an orc from The Daily Telegraph. What odds that sort of person earning their 30 pieces of silver salary from Mordor Media is disseminating the truth ?

  11. This is one of the deleted fakebook posts of David Gazzard where he finds the lie, er, the line to spin against Gladys Berejiklian:

  15. David Marr

    PM tries to present himself as a leader reborn – but you just can’t take the marketing out of Scotty

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/jan/04/pm-tries-to-present-himself-as-a-leader-reborn-but-you-just-cant-take-the-marketing-out-of-scotty

    When Gladys Berejiklian looks pained, you feel it in your guts. That she can’t sack this man tells us a lot about the state of NSW politics. Elliott is a boss of the far-right faction of the Liberal party, the men and women who stand for Christ, coal and the cops. Were she to touch Elliott, they could bring her down.

  21. One of the several reasons I find myself responding emotionally to these fires is that the fires have burned so many places that have been significant in my personal life, places where relationships with friends and family were formed and strengthened, or weakened, places where i worked, places where we hiked, fished, enjoyed the scenery, the scent of the bush after rain, observed the wildlife, captured images, camped.
    It is hard to say what all that is like except that, for me, the fires have an intimate quality.
    It is as if they are burning a part of my self.

  23. C@tmomma

    …Channel 7 making sure to insert ‘the search for Arsonists goes on’ at the top of the story. </p?

    The first question at today’s RFS/Premier presser was about arsonists. The Commissioner said there were a few small suspicious blazes in Sydney but not the big blazes. A bit of a disappointment for Ch 7 and the DT.

  25. Boerwar,
    As I think to myself, I never thought it would be this way. In some sense I believed we could avoid the worst predictions wrt Climate Change. Boy have I been disabused of that wan delusional hope.

  26. C@tmomma @ #7236 Saturday, January 4th, 2020 – 6:19 pm

    Channel 7 making sure to insert ‘the search for Arsonists goes on’ at the top of the story. 😐

    Even if/to the extent that’s an actual thing, Australia has had arsonists for as long as it’s been inhabited. Yet it’s only recently that it’s been possible for the entire place to burn down at once. So…not a good scapegoat at all.

  27. citizen

    The Commissioner said there were a few small suspicious blazes in Sydney but not the big blazes. A bit of a disappointment for Ch 7 and the DT.

    Not that it will stop the scum from blaming ‘arsonists’ .

  28. citizen @ #6873 Saturday, January 4th, 2020 – 7:41 pm

    C@tmomma

    …Channel 7 making sure to insert ‘the search for Arsonists goes on’ at the top of the story. </p?

    The first question at today’s RFS/Premier presser was about arsonists. The Commissioner said there were a few small suspicious blazes in Sydney but not the big blazes. A bit of a disappointment for Ch 7 and the DT.

    They said it on the news anyway.

  29. Yep.

    Steve Bracks
    @BracksSteve
    ·
    6m
    Wow. It is hard to go much lower than advertisements spruiking the Federal Governments response in the middle of the Nations bushfire crisis.

  31. I think all the fires in Gippsland were started by lightening, The north west Gippsland fires (Appleyard/Mt Buffalo) were differently started by lightening because the CFA literally saw the storm roll across the mountains with lightening followed by smoke.

  32. Yes. On reflection, It should have been an easy tell.

    Neil McMahon
    @NeilMcMahon
    It hadn’t occurred to me that the PM’s response to criticism of his response to the fires would be to throw a woman premier under the bus and release a promo ad extolling his virtues but it probably should have.

  33. Blane the Greenies, blame arsonists, blame the NSW Government…

    Shift the blame away to anyone and everything (except mates). The politics of disaster, as Nath mentioned upthread.

  34. Is there a link to Scooty’s ad promoting himself that isn’t on Twitter? He blocked me back in the days the Libs were in opposition. Similarly Samantha Maiden and for reasons I haven’t managed to identify, so has PVO.

  35. The way around being blocked on twitter is to log out and simply go to the blocked page which can be seen unless tweets are protected.

  38. Time to have a break and watch a film I haven’t seen for almost 20 years: 1980 Australian film “Harlequin.” Then continue reading “God’s War, A New History of the Crusades” by Christopher Tyerman until I can’t stay awake then it’s sleepy bo-bo’s.

    Think I’ll leave reading “Spot Visits a Nuclear Reactor” by I.B. Nuked until tomorrow.

  39. Morrison has now promised volunteer firies compensation payments will start flowing to them. He has now promised them extra fire fighting aircraft. He has now promised them defence force personnel will be on the ground around the country.

    We will now sit and wait to see how quickly these promises are kept. How organised the government response is and how effective it will be.

    Morrison will now be judged by hundreds of thousands of volunteer and professional firies, the communities they are defending and the family and friends of every single person in the affected areas.

    He has now taken personal ownership ( in my opinion a stupid knee jerk response to being under pressure ) of the Australia wide response with all that involves. Henhad better hope it does not all go tits up. He will be judged even more harshly than he is atm if his “ promises” are not turned into the lived experience.

    Releasing a political video talking up the “ Morrison response “ is not a very good start.

    Methinks in his haste to get back in front Morrison has personally promised way too much.

  40. A second lot of friends lost their house. We are still waiting for news from many others. The fire along the Duea River looks like it may be taking out anothery this evening. Maybe a wind shift will save it.

  41. Outside left @ #6869 Saturday, January 4th, 2020 – 7:30 pm

    The Southerly came with the smoke and smell of Bendalong and Manyana cooking. I hope that Itzadream is OK.

    Thanks kindly Outside Left. We are in Sydney, pretty much transfixed to the laptop. It’s a bit debilitating, just scrolling from website to website -major news feeds, RFS, that DEA Hot Spot site Bw linked to, RFS app on the phone – and PB is a welcome relief, and somewhere to vent.

    Are you down where? I’m reading the RFS twitter feed that the southerly has hit Nowra with gusts of 75, heading the fires north. We are about 10 km north of hot spots on the north side of the River and feeling a bit anxious. I can see our house and gardens so clearly on the DEA site; it’s bizarre. I’m think I’m starting to disassociate from it.

    But we’re ok whatever happens. I hope you are too. I am much more gutted at some of the footage, like the car where the father and surgeon son died on KI. I’ve turned the TV off now.

    I thought the Libs were scum sucking bottom dwellers, but now I know there’s something lower than that. Them.

  42. clem attlee
    His career has been marked by having to leave early and leaving a lot of bad blood in his wake so no surprise. Still, he will always have the Hillsong charlatans to fall back on for ego massages.

  43. I am an optimist at heart. But these past weeks… I suppose at least we’re setting an example as a Global Warning. There’s a morality tale in here somewhere.

  46. ‘Steve777 says:
    Saturday, January 4, 2020 at 7:46 pm

    ”The footprint of these fires is, more or less, Australia.”’

    Here Marr over eggs the cake as he so often does.

    So far less than 1% of the Australian land mass has burned in these fires.

  47. Tristo

    I’m thinking he will. Rupert will ensure “quiet Australians” are fed enough soma to make them believe Scrott ‘saved’ us.

  48. It’s intriguing that there is a massive blame game between a Liberal PM and a Liberal Premier. So far it looks like the Premier is winning the PR war with her businesslike appearances at RFS media conferences.

    The PM meanwhile is reduced to being propped up by an assortment of RWNJs, some Liberals and the usual media suspects. And his Liberal Party advertisement is obnoxious at this time.

    Meanwhile Albo is doing an appropriate amount of low key PR.

  49. One “ unknown” that also needs to be factored into how smootly the “ Morrison response “ unfolds is how the NSW government and the RFS and its Commissioner handle being hung out to dry by Morrison.

    There is always a paper trail even in the modern world.

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