Newspoll breakdowns: November-December 2019

Aggregated polling breakdowns from Newspoll offer never-before-seen detail on voting intention by income and education, together with state, gender and age.

Something new under the sun today from Newspoll, with The Australian ($) publishing the first set of aggregated breakdowns since the election. This would appear to be limited to the new-look poll that was launched last month, which has dropped its telephone component and is now conducted entirely online. Only two results have been published in that time, but there is evidently more behind this poll than that, as the survey period extends back to November 7 and the sample size of 4562 suggests three polling periods rather than two.

The results as published are of interest in providing never-before-seen breakdowns for education level (no tertiary, TAFE/technical or tertiary) and household income (up to $50,000, up to $100,000, up to $150,000, and beyond). Including the first of these as a weighting variable promises to address difficulties pollsters may have been having in over-representing those with good education and high levels of civic engagement. However, the poll gives with one hand and takes with the other, in that it limits the state breakdowns are limited to New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland. And it falls well short of the promised new age of pollster transparency, providing no detail on how the various sub-categories have been weighted.

The state breakdowns suggest either that Labor has recovered slightly in Queensland since the election, or that polling is still struggling to hit the mark there. The Coalition is credited with a two-party lead of 55-45, compared with 58.4-41.6 at the election. Their primary vote is 40%, down from 43.7%, with Labor up from 26.7% to 29%, One Nation up from 8.9% to 13%, and the Greens up from 10.3% to 12%. The Coalition lead in New South Wales is 51-49, compared with 51.8-48.2 at the election, from primary votes of Coalition 42% (42.5%), Labor 35% (34.6%) and Greens 10% (8.7%). Labor’s lead in Victoria is 53-47, barely different from the election result of 53.1-46.9, from primary votes of Coalition 40% (38.6%), Labor 38% (36.9%) and Greens 12% (11.9%).

Age breakdowns consist of four cohorts rather than the old three, and tell a globally familiar story of Labor dominating among the 18-to-34s with a lead of 57-43, while the 65-plus cohort goes 61-39 the other way. In between are a 50-50 from 35-49s and 51-49 to the Coalition among 50-64s. The primary votes are less radical than the recent findings of the Australian Election Study survey: the primary votes among the young cohort are Coalition 34%, Labor 35% and Greens 22%, compared with 37%, 23% and 28% respectively in the AES.

Reflecting polling in Britain, there is little distinction in the balance of major party support between the three education cohorts (UPDATE: actually not so – I was thinking of social class, education was associated with Labor support), contrary to the traditional expectation that the party of the working class would do best among those with no tertiary education. The Coalition instead leads 52-48 among both that cohort and the university-educated, with Labor leading 51-49 among those with TAFE or other technical qualifications. However, household income breakdowns are more in line with traditional expectation, with Labor leading 53-47 at the bottom end, the Coalition leading 51-49 in the lower-middle, and the Coalition leading 58-42 in both of the upper cohorts.

Leadership ratings turn up a few curiosities, such as Scott Morrison rating better in Victoria (46% on both approval and disapproval) than New South Wales (41% and 51%) and Queensland (43% and 51%). Conversely, Anthony Albanese is stronger in his home state of New South Wales (41% and 40%) than Victoria (37% and 42%) and Queensland (35% and 49%).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

7,114 comments on “Newspoll breakdowns: November-December 2019”

  1. It’s not just a few lefty critics now, is it.

    Sandi Logan
    @SandiHLogan
    · 2h
    A VERY senior ADF officer tells me the latest asset deployment is way too little, way too late. “The entire government effort has been woeful: 1400 houses destroyed & we did nothing preventative to stop it despite RFS advice re the need for back-burning & capability. Piss poor.”

  2. Scout,

    I predict within the next 2 – 4 weeks there will be a fabricated ‘crisis’ (refugees, boats, terrorist attack, sudanese gangs, single mothers / aboriginals etc rorting welfare) that the coalition will use to self promote and divide

    may not take that long

    Sadly I agree. Hopefully the distraction will not the military conflagration in the Middle East, with Scotty from Marketing going all the way with Trump 🙁

  3. Peg,

    I am having no problems with response times on my laptop. But then I am not using any scripts, just the vanilla version of the site as it is.

    Yes, me too.

  4. We cant talk about the climate change during the fire disasters but we can make swish marketing vids promoting kind king Morrison. Great Scott.

  5. Zeh:

    A decent database should cope just fine with AR’s wordpress JSON API query.
    Mr Bowe might want to check on the resource usage of his server, however I believe he pays for a managed service.

    Naturally I blame wordpress and mysql

    Martin Kleppmann (a distributed/dependable systems person at Cambridge) has written one of the best ever CS books (published 2017), directly on how to do this – https://www.amazon.com/Designing-Data-Intensive-Applications-Reliable-Maintainable/dp/1449373321/

  6. Peg:’continue to tumble, with Canberra reaching 43.6 degrees and Penrith 48.9′

    I heard on the radio this morning that 15,000 French people died of the effects of 6 days above 40 degrees in 2013. (They estimate it 75,000 for all of Europe).

    I wonder if we will get a corresponding tally with all this heat Aust is experiencing.

  7. Tim Wilson crowing about all the things ScoMo is doing as if he’s part of Cabinet.
    Daddy’s little helper. What reward is he hoping for?

  8. E. G. Theodore Thanks for the link

    I can’t tweak the query to speed it up any. I think maybe the Pollbludger comment table is just starting to crap itself under the weight of 3.3 million+ entries

  9. Karen Middleton
    @KarenMMiddleton
    ·
    7m
    The Liberal Party has made an ad to spruik what the government is now doing in the fire crisis. Prime Minister, it’s quite an achievement to be simultaneously too soon & way too late.

  10. Pink donates $500,000 to Australian firefighting effort
    Pop star Pink says she is “devastated” watching bushfires rage in Australia and has pledged a donation of $500,000 to local fire services.

    “I am devastated watching from afar of what is happening in Australia right now with the bushfires,” Pink said in a statement on Saturday evening.

  11. sprocket_ says:
    Saturday, January 4, 2020 at 6:32 pm

    Pink donates $500,000 to Australian firefighting effort
    Pop star Pink says she is “devastated” watching bushfires rage in Australia and has pledged a donation of $500,000 to local fire services.
    ____________________
    Here’s someone who plays the politics of disaster well. She makes millions every tour of Australia, which is per capita her number one market by a mile.

  12. The one think I am noticing on social media is the people that are supportive of Morrison all seem to work on government related contracts so they are either trying to get into Morrison’s good books or they are seriously nasty with one guy calling the people in cobargo “losers”. I don’t get the morals of someone that would think that let along go onto social media and say it.

  13. Maybe ScaMo can be like his hero, the Donald, and put the Under 5s in cages where their parents can’t find them, then farm them out for adoption to Good Christian Evangelical Families?

  14. Clearly…

    (a) SmoCo believes Gladys is getting too much of any of the credit going around for the bushfire response;

    (b) SmoCo believes that the Federal assets that ARE being used are not being attributed as such e.g. “logistics”, “evacuation via Sea Hawke helicopter”, Richmond AFB facilities given over to larger fire-bombing tankers &etc.

    (c) SmoCo believes David Elliott got a cushy ride compared to him;

    (d) SmoCo knows that the only person he can trust to do a job is himself. Everyone else is a gofer.

    So the Feds are going to take over what, until a few hours ago, SmoCo said was a “state responsibility”. There is no emergency. There is no ramping-up. It’s someone else’s fault that he hasn’t received the credit he deserves. This was all in place in March. Once again the team has let him down. The team even allowed one of its state ministers to say “he got what he deserved”. A premier backed up the minister, and refused to sack the other mister who pissed off to Paris.

    So he’s going to bypass the state government and go direct to… who? The local councils? Rotary clubs? The Fishermans’ Co- Op?

    With SmoCo in personal charge, what could possibly go wrong?

  15. The information web site spruiking the Government’s action during the current disaster has a donate button which steers the donations to the Liberal party.

  16. Scam Alert!

    Matt Burke
    @matttburke
    · 22m

    People should be aware that the prominent DONATE button in the link the PM has posted with his bushfire ad on FB is raising funds for the LIBERAL PARTY and NOT bushfire relief.

  17. Fair Tirade
    @fairtirade
    ·
    42m
    “I don’t know how to hold a hose or listen to an expert or empathise a grieving person… but by Jove I know how to make an ad!”
    Quote Tweet

    Scott Morrison
    @ScottMorrisonMP
    · 2h
    We’re putting more Defence Force boots on the ground, more planes in the sky, more ships to sea, and more trucks to roll in to support the bushfire fighting effort and recovery as part of our co-ordinated response to these terrible #bushfires

  18. Victoria @ #6832 Saturday, January 4th, 2020 – 6:45 pm

    Fair Tirade
    @fairtirade
    ·
    42m
    “I don’t know how to hold a hose or listen to an expert or empathise a grieving person… but by Jove I know how to make an ad!”
    Quote Tweet

    Scott Morrison
    @ScottMorrisonMP
    · 2h
    We’re putting more Defence Force boots on the ground, more planes in the sky, more ships to sea, and more trucks to roll in to support the bushfire fighting effort and recovery as part of our co-ordinated response to these terrible #bushfires

    The fire over your way seems to be active again. Everything OK?

  19. William Bowe @ #6661 Saturday, January 4th, 2020 – 5:38 pm

    Peter van Onselen @vanOnselenP
    I kid you not, I can confirm the inner sanctum of Team Morrison are actively backgrounding media against the NSW Coalition government to try and make sure the PM doesn’t wear the blame for his handling of the fires. It’s extraordinary that is their focus at the moment! #auspol

    Sharri Markson @SharriMarkson
    NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian had rejected Morrison’s offer of further military and naval support, holding the view she and the RFS had it under control. Today, the PM has decided to take control.

    I bet they are doing it to attempt to shaft Andrew Constance for daring to speak out against #ScottyfromMarketing.

    What a venal lot they are. They deserve to burn forever in the fires of Hell. And, as a Catholic, I can say that!

  20. GG

    As you and I have been posting most of the same Tweets today, I can now retire to bed, secure in the knowledge that you will carry the load into the evening.

  21. Thanks for the warning Boerwar.

    It is just an extra tool to send my friends who are still in / have returned to the mountains watching the Grose valley fire.

    One thing about the Blue Mountains, being built on the narrow ridge line traversed by Blaxland, Lawson and Wentworth, you can see the progress of the fires by watching the plumes of smoke, combined with the knowledge that there are only a few narrow valleys down which they can progress.

    Of course those “few narrow valleys” are dangerous chimneys that burn houses and cost lives.

  22. In The Crown, after the Aberfan disaster, the PM Harold Wilson made a calculated decision to background the press about the Queens callous response to divert criticism of his governments culpability in the tragedy.
    Amazing how the same playbook is used.

  23. Seasprite @ #6611 Saturday, January 4th, 2020 – 2:55 pm

    I am reading a lot of tweets over at #auspol about Morison smirking and smiling while telling fibs. He does this when he knows he’s not telling the truth and the reporters don’t pick him up on it.
    “Remember this disturbing grin? Professional liespotter Pamela Meyer calls it “Duper’s Delight,” the thrill a liar may not be able to contain at getting away with it.”

    If anyone has twitter you may want to post about it because it seems no one has picked up on it yet.
    https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/duping_delight
    http://changingminds.org/explanations/behaviors/lying/dupers_delight.htm
    https://www.criminalelement.com/dupers-delight-duping-lie-liars-smile-getting-away-with-it-liespotting-pamela-meyer-ted-crime-hq/

    Fascinating stuff. Thanks.

  24. Media
    Likes
    Peter van Onselen’s Tweets
    Peter van Onselen
    @vanOnselenP
    ·
    2m
    David Gazard is now busily deleted his Facebook messages attacking state governments…. ‍♂️
    Peter van Onselen
    @vanOnselenP
    ·
    41m
    David Gazard on Facebook recently – one of the PM’s closest confidants and part of Morrison’s “inner sanctum” as reported in the
    @australian
    – blaming the states. Days later…Team Morrison starts doing exactly that, trying to blame shift.

  25. ” People should be aware that the prominent DONATE button in the link the PM has posted with his bushfire ad on FB is raising funds for the LIBERAL PARTY and NOT bushfire relief.”

    That is egregious, disgraceful and disgusting.

  26. GG

    The MFB and Police have been actively monitoring the Gorge since the fire started.
    As trees are still smouldering.
    It is a high priority site. If a fire gets away from there, it will be on for young and old.

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