Newspoll breakdowns: November-December 2019

Aggregated polling breakdowns from Newspoll offer never-before-seen detail on voting intention by income and education, together with state, gender and age.

Something new under the sun today from Newspoll, with The Australian ($) publishing the first set of aggregated breakdowns since the election. This would appear to be limited to the new-look poll that was launched last month, which has dropped its telephone component and is now conducted entirely online. Only two results have been published in that time, but there is evidently more behind this poll than that, as the survey period extends back to November 7 and the sample size of 4562 suggests three polling periods rather than two.

The results as published are of interest in providing never-before-seen breakdowns for education level (no tertiary, TAFE/technical or tertiary) and household income (up to $50,000, up to $100,000, up to $150,000, and beyond). Including the first of these as a weighting variable promises to address difficulties pollsters may have been having in over-representing those with good education and high levels of civic engagement. However, the poll gives with one hand and takes with the other, in that it limits the state breakdowns are limited to New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland. And it falls well short of the promised new age of pollster transparency, providing no detail on how the various sub-categories have been weighted.

The state breakdowns suggest either that Labor has recovered slightly in Queensland since the election, or that polling is still struggling to hit the mark there. The Coalition is credited with a two-party lead of 55-45, compared with 58.4-41.6 at the election. Their primary vote is 40%, down from 43.7%, with Labor up from 26.7% to 29%, One Nation up from 8.9% to 13%, and the Greens up from 10.3% to 12%. The Coalition lead in New South Wales is 51-49, compared with 51.8-48.2 at the election, from primary votes of Coalition 42% (42.5%), Labor 35% (34.6%) and Greens 10% (8.7%). Labor’s lead in Victoria is 53-47, barely different from the election result of 53.1-46.9, from primary votes of Coalition 40% (38.6%), Labor 38% (36.9%) and Greens 12% (11.9%).

Age breakdowns consist of four cohorts rather than the old three, and tell a globally familiar story of Labor dominating among the 18-to-34s with a lead of 57-43, while the 65-plus cohort goes 61-39 the other way. In between are a 50-50 from 35-49s and 51-49 to the Coalition among 50-64s. The primary votes are less radical than the recent findings of the Australian Election Study survey: the primary votes among the young cohort are Coalition 34%, Labor 35% and Greens 22%, compared with 37%, 23% and 28% respectively in the AES.

Reflecting polling in Britain, there is little distinction in the balance of major party support between the three education cohorts (UPDATE: actually not so – I was thinking of social class, education was associated with Labor support), contrary to the traditional expectation that the party of the working class would do best among those with no tertiary education. The Coalition instead leads 52-48 among both that cohort and the university-educated, with Labor leading 51-49 among those with TAFE or other technical qualifications. However, household income breakdowns are more in line with traditional expectation, with Labor leading 53-47 at the bottom end, the Coalition leading 51-49 in the lower-middle, and the Coalition leading 58-42 in both of the upper cohorts.

Leadership ratings turn up a few curiosities, such as Scott Morrison rating better in Victoria (46% on both approval and disapproval) than New South Wales (41% and 51%) and Queensland (43% and 51%). Conversely, Anthony Albanese is stronger in his home state of New South Wales (41% and 40%) than Victoria (37% and 42%) and Queensland (35% and 49%).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

7,114 comments on “Newspoll breakdowns: November-December 2019”

  1. ‘poroti says:
    Saturday, January 4, 2020 at 8:09 pm

    And what percentages of the habitable and habited area of Australia ? A bit more than 1% methinks.’

    I agree that there are all sorts of meaningful subsets.

    I was responding to Marr’s headline claim which is basically counter factual.

  2. I was in the car at about 330 today and hear the ABC news lady interview the PM, This was a bit odd to me because she’s just been rattling off fire fighting news and the news radio on ABC doesn’t often have interviews with the PM. Usually just clips.

    It was a bad interview, She (i can’t recall the name) really stuck the knife in and made morrison answer about not talking to the chiefs and even had him say he didn’t need to meet with them because it was the same information that he got briefed on by the current fire chiefs. So if this is the case i wonder if labor wouldn’t be wrong to be craven and promise a royal commission into this if elected so the could draw and quarter the lnp on this massive fuck up.

  3. Boerwar @ #6896 Saturday, January 4th, 2020 – 5:03 pm

    ‘Steve777 says:
    Saturday, January 4, 2020 at 7:46 pm

    ”The footprint of these fires is, more or less, Australia.”’

    Here Marr over eggs the cake as he so often does.

    So far less than 1% of the Australian land mass has burned in these fires.

    He was actually referring to the social footprint. If you read the whole paragraph that sentence is taken from he states (wtte), just about everyone knows someone who is affected by the fires either directly or indirectly.

  4. @poroti

    I argue if Morrison is going to get away with his stunt, will depend on Labor’s response to the catastrophic bush-fires. Because I argue these bush-fires are our version of a ‘No Deal’ Brexit for Britain. Like such an event in Britain will lead to a massive public backlash against the Brexiters and indeed anyone in public life supporting Brexit in anyway. So I argue these bush-fires could very well led to a massive backlash against anybody in public life supporting the fossil fuels industries in this country.

  5. Scrotty from marketing may need to ‘fine tune’ his promo. ‘Tis not working
    An RFS member in Nelligen, just north of Batemans Bay on the hard hit NSW South Coast, pulled up to a news crew on the side of the road, leaned out the window, and told the prime minister to “go and get fucked”.

  6. ‘Danama Papers says:
    Saturday, January 4, 2020 at 8:19 pm

    Boerwar @ #6896 Saturday, January 4th, 2020 – 5:03 pm

    ‘Steve777 says:
    Saturday, January 4, 2020 at 7:46 pm

    ”The footprint of these fires is, more or less, Australia.”’

    Here Marr over eggs the cake as he so often does.

    So far less than 1% of the Australian land mass has burned in these fires.

    He was actually referring to the social footprint. If you read the whole paragraph that sentence is taken from he states (wtte), just about everyone knows someone who is affected by the fires either directly or indirectly.’

    A footprint is spatial, IMO. But if Marr meant Australian people I would tend to agree with him.

  7. ‘Diogenes says:
    Saturday, January 4, 2020 at 8:27 pm

    PvO has really gone to war with Morrison. He’s doing a lot of damage.’

    PvO really hit his straps about a month ago when he called time on the Government’s campaign of deflection, lying and silence. His particular personal resolve was not to let an issue rest just because it had been deflected once before. He issued a virtual call to arms to his fellow journalists to all do the same.

  8. Tristo

    I do have hope though. The fact Scrott was in Hawaii would be widely known. That sort of thing would go down like a lead balloon with people battling on the pointy end, like that firie from Nelligen. This event is so Yuge that it means shed loads of people will have the Scrott in Hawaii while they battled and lost homes image on their minds. they will also know that despite the ads he has done SFA and claims by him he has will not go down well. They in turn will have lots of people they will,rightly, gripe to about his.

  9. Van Badham
    UPDATE: the original poster (see thread) got 1500 retweets in less than an hour. Also, the link to the donation page has been taken down.

    #auspol #firecrisis
    Quote Tweet

    Van Badham
    · 2h
    I’m sorry – but Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison using the #firecrisis to FUNDRAISE FOR THE LIBERAL PARTY really, truly renders him the world’s most reprehensible shitlord. There are no other words. There just aren’t.

    Please share this so noone gets tricked. #auspol

  10. Boerwar @8:03 PM.

    What Mr Marr was saying is that the impact of these fires went way beyond the fire grounds and those directly threatened. I live 10 km from the centre of Sydney so I’m personally safe, but I have family in bushfire-prone areas, as have many (most?) Australians. Further, the fires hit holiday resorts at peak holiday time. Many city people who have never been near a bushfire found themselves stranded and under attack, huddling on the beach, queuing for food, like refugees in their own country. Our major cities, including Sydney, Brisbane, Canberra and Melbourne have been choked by smoke.

    I’m in my late 60s, I have lived in or near Sydney all my life. I don’t remember anything like this.

  11. Even Piers Morgan is gobsmacked at the cluelessness.

    Piers MorganVerified account@piersmorgan
    49m49 minutes ago
    Wow. A self-promotional commercial with cheesy elevator music? This is one of the most tone-deaf things I’ve ever seen a country’s leader put out during a crisis. Shameless & shameful.

  12. ‘Danama Papers says:
    Saturday, January 4, 2020 at 8:38 pm

    Boerwar @ #6907 Saturday, January 4th, 2020 – 5:29 pm

    But if Marr meant Australian people I would tend to agree with him.

    That was my interpretation of what he wrote.’

    No worries, DP. If that is what he meant I agree with him. I am a bit wary about vulnerabilities arising from over egging the fire cake. Not needed. The reality is just awful.

  13. The cool change has yet to hit the ACT. Temps still in the high thirties. The wind has died down but it is NW. One good thing is that the NW have blown most of the smoke away.
    I assume that overnight any wind from any other direction will blow the smoke back.

  14. I think the Channel 7 airing video of the Firey telling the PM to get F***d can be the official nail in the coffin of Morrison’s political career.

  15. It’s like the SSM issue. Everyone has a gay uncle, or sister, or cousin, or niece, or in-laws, neighbour etc. Everyone, I mean everyone, in the dog park in Sydney this morning was sharing stories, and they were all personal – who was holidaying where, how long they were stuck in the traffic, or without power, where their house was in the Highlands, or South Coast, or Victorian friends, or where they stayed the year before last, got married …

    Everyone knows these places, they are iconic holiday spots, the great Australian Christmas holidays so beautifully epitomised say in Michael Gow’s play Away, where virginities are lost, babies made, relationships foundered, marriages saved, lives lived.

    Morrison can’t recover from this imo. It’s a long way from over, the human and economic costs enormous, and then there’s the enquiries, the coroners, the raking over the coals (sorry) and a RC surely.

  16. There has been a request to reduce the call on the grid because two substations in the Snowys were taken out. We have turned just about everything off. The pooter is next. So it is good night from me.
    Stay safe everyone!

  17. Steve777 unlike the Bronte Blow-in I was born and grew up and lived a substantial part of my life in the Sutherland Shire. Well almost. Sutherland Hospital was finished later that year. The Royal was so close you knew if there was a bushfire. We even went to the end of Willarong Rd and watched the flames licking the waters of the Port Hacking River.
    Never, not even in the 90s have I experienced anything like this and I’m early 60s.
    Morrison is full of it.
    BTW a number of fires nearby. The one that flared late this arvo that I could see from my yard I guess is either Burragorang or Badgerys Creek.

  18. Confessions,
    that’s what i heard this arvo and gosh it was a shocker.

    It’s bittersweet to see the lnp really taking a hit here. I wish it wasn’t at the cost of lives and livelihood for people.

    I think labor need to pivot to a line such as,
    How can you trust the liberals to manage the country when the can’t even manage a fire. or some such around june, when dutton becomes the leader.

  19. south

    The Libs including Scrott, have used the line that THE most important job of the government is to keep us safe. They definitely failed there and there is plenty to show their slackness.

  20. :large

    People are saying the donation button has gone. But the damage has been done with rushing out this advert in the first place, I reckon.

  21. south:

    Listening to the interview you can understand why Liberals and their supporters have bought into the media Get Scotty conspiracy theory. Morrison himself alludes to it in his last couple of sentences FFS.

  22. Speaking of politicians ‘Chucking a ScoMo’ – where is Angus Taylor? His electorate of Hume is going up in flames, and nothing on social media from him since 16 December – until this evening when he retweeted Morrison’s Liberal Party fundraiser.

  23. Grog has had it up to pussy’s bow:

    Greg Jericho

    I just… FMD this is gross. People have died. And he’s authorised a political advert about what the Govt has very belatedly done.

    But yeah “don’t politicise these events”

    He should count himself lucky the worst that happened is people just refused to shake his hand.

    I mean this is a *Liberal Party* advert!!

    How lacking in empathy would you have to be to think this was appropriate, let alone a good idea??

    I mean FFS, using a natural disaster to promote your Govt. What a bunch of pricks

    I guess they couldn’t make the announcement a couple days ago – gotta wait for the advert to get done first. #ScottyFromMarketting

  24. It seems a no-brainer, but so many untrue comments and lies on the official social media sites of actual media outlets go through to the keeper. This is all they have to do in response.


  25. C@t:

    Re Grog and outrage from others at the sheer gall of the coalition, it just underscores my point that saying both major parties are the same is a ridiculous ill-informed and lazy statement.

  26. Statement from the Australian Defence Association

    1) Party-political advertising milking ADF support to civil agencies fighting bushfires is a clear breach of the (reciprocal) non-partisanship convention applying to both the ADF & Ministers/MPs. 2) Also cliche-ridden. 3) Its “defence force”, not “Defence Force”. #auspol #ausdef

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